madsinger monthly report (May 2017)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 5 months, 10 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  May     YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2017    2017    2014    2012    2007    1999
VFINX             1.39%   8.60%  10.06%  15.00%   7.31%   5.56%
Sheltered Sam     0.60%   6.20%   7.90%  12.38%   5.77%   7.63%
Hot Hands        -2.36%  -0.05%   1.61%  10.73%   3.02%  10.60%
                  
Newsletter G      1.67%   9.90%   8.99%  14.34%   7.43%   9.56%
Newsletter G-IND  0.93%   8.20%   8.72%  13.69%   7.37%   6.77%
3 fund            1.57%   8.68%   6.00%  10.18%   5.66%   5.83%
s&d               0.90%   6.63%   6.36%  10.17%   5.54%   7.35%
LS G              1.55%   8.66%   6.35%  10.49%   5.19%   5.30%

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Newsletter CG     1.77%   9.40%   8.71%  13.21%   7.15%   8.03%
Wellington        1.18%   5.43%   7.46%  10.61%   7.09%   7.46%
STAR              1.90%   8.70%   6.10%   9.63%   6.03%   6.62%
coffeehouse       0.33%   3.91%   6.35%   8.91%   5.95%   7.06%
LS MG             1.34%   6.96%   5.72%   8.53%   5.09%   5.29%
                  
Wellesley         1.16%   4.10%   6.08%   7.39%   6.73%   6.79%
Newsletter Inc    1.87%   8.80%   7.85%  10.48%   6.46%   5.98%
LS CG             1.10%   5.24%   5.01%   6.54%   4.64%   5.00%
                  
madsinger         0.46%   5.57%   5.29%   8.64%   5.25%   
madsinger PP      0.77%   5.88%            

[bloom2708]

Thank you for the monthly update.

My 3 fund continues to be "good enough". In this 30 year horse race, it might not finish first but it will be on the lead lap.

[madsinger]

US stocks moved less in sync in May than they have in a long time.

US Large: +1.39%, YTD: 8.6%
US Large Value: +0.11%, YTD: 3.3%
US Small: -1.15%, YTD: 3.4%
US Small Value: -2.36%, YTD: -0.05%

So, any tilt towards "value" or "small" away from Total Stock Market has resulted in lower returns for the year.

International stocks are up over +14% YTD. REITs are basically flat. Total bond up a healthy +2.33% YTD.

Permanent Portfolio had a good month, helped again (to my surprise) by Long Bonds, up +1.74% for the month.

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         STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  1.85%    0.65%    0.08%   5.32%   1.93%
February 3.92%    1.57%    0.08%   3.17%   2.16%
March    0.07%   -0.58%    0.09%  -0.25%  -0.16%
April    0.99%    1.56%    0.08%   1.67%   1.07%
May      1.39%    1.74%    0.09%  -0.08%   0.77%
               
YTD      8.45%    5.04%    0.42%  10.11%   5.88%

[Peculiar_Investor]

Added to the wiki page Madsinger monthly reports - Bogleheads

[staythecourse]

Permanent Portfolio had a good month, helped again (to my surprise) by Long Bonds, up +1.74% for the month.

Such an odd comment to make from a boglehead. Do you have any data to support being able to predict with any accuracy short term movement of Long term treasuries?

I do know year to year autocorrelation of EVERYTHING except for tbills is a big, fat ZERO. So I don't think there is any data to support being surprised if x goes up or down or sideways.

Good luck.

[madsinger]

Permanent Portfolio had a good month, helped again (to my surprise) by Long Bonds, up +1.74% for the month.

Such an odd comment to make from a boglehead. Do you have any data to support being able to predict with any accuracy short term movement of Long term treasuries?

You are absolutely right. Of course, I have NO data to support being able to predict movement...nobody does. This is precisely why I have dedicated a portion of my portfolio to this approach. I laugh at myself because my "gut" tells me that long bonds should not be performing well..."rising rates, yada yada yada", hence the motivation of my comment "to my surprise". Last December I rebalanced, selling "small cap value" fund and buying "long term bonds", because that's what my AA plan indicated. Had I gone with my "gut", I would have never done that. Since that rebalance date, my Small Cap Value holding is down -0.05%, and my long bond holding is up +6.57%. Last month only made this spread wider. This is why I have a rationally determined plan, and why I follow it!

-Brad.

[investor]

thanks Brad

investor