madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2008 returns, 2008 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 (9 years 7 months, 7 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

New for 2008, I've added the "Hot Hands" fund, and the Newsletter "Growth Index" portfolio. I've also rearranged the columns so the far right is the "longest" time period, and the far left is the shortest.

The madsinger portfolio, my real-money portfolio (slice-n-dice, approximately 66/5/3/26 stock/REIT/PM/bond) is included at the end.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  July     YTD    since   since   since   since
                  2008     2008   2005    2003    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -4.88%  -17.96%  8.84%  18.50%  13.69%  15.63%
Sheltered Sam    -0.73%  -10.56%  6.57%  13.56%   6.94%   7.45%
VFINX            -0.84%  -12.70%  3.08%   8.61%   1.10%   1.89%
      
s&d              -0.39%   -8.29%  6.30%  12.48%   6.95%   7.52%
Newsletter G-IND -2.95%  -11.30%  7.33%  12.19%   5.88%   4.89%
Newsletter G     -1.56%  -11.50%  7.23%  12.82%   5.57%   9.92%
3 fund           -1.45%   -9.84%  6.11%  11.13%   4.62%   4.81%
LS G             -1.17%  -10.98%  4.91%  10.18%   3.71%   4.04%
      
Wellington       -1.32%   -6.77%  6.20%   9.56%   6.53%   6.70%
coffeehouse       0.42%   -5.15%  4.96%   9.72%   6.52%   6.78%
STAR             -0.94%   -7.66%  4.74%   8.98%   5.16%   5.95%
newsletter CG    -1.10%   -9.80%  6.05%  11.08%   5.02%   7.38%
LS MG            -0.82%   -8.32%  4.70%   8.72%   4.20%   4.45%
      
Wellesley         0.15%   -4.37%  4.30%   5.83%   5.87%   5.80%
newsletter Inc   -0.74%   -5.90%  3.91%   7.29%   4.53%   4.20%
LS CG            -0.57%   -5.72%  4.37%   7.11%   4.41%   4.63%
      
madsinger        -0.59%   -6.69%  6.43%   
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

A few more minus signs this month. A little more "spray" in the asset classes this month. Depending on which way you lean, you may have done well, or, let's see...a buying opportunity!

Small Caps (+1.67%) , especially Small Cap Value (+4.03%) were strong this month. REITs were up over 3%, but Precious Metals got thwacked, down over -18% for the month! International was much weaker than domestic for July (-3.67% for Total Int'l vs. -0.77% for Total Stock).

Coffeehouse was the big winner with healthy doses of small caps and REITs, and not too much Int'l.

Hot Hands got hit again this month.

My madsinger portfolio held up pretty well for the month, thanks to an extra helping of small caps...and NO THANKS to precious metals. I should review again for rebalancing opportunities!

Wishing you all well!

-Brad.
Puakinekine
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Post by Puakinekine »

Thanks for posting this every month Brad. Lately, there has not been a lot of response to the monthly Madsinger, but really what can you say? I suppose it is like the silence at a funeral.
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burt
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Post by burt »

Thank-you for the monthly madsinger report. I always look forward to reviewing performance of the different portfolios.

Burt
investor
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Post by investor »

:D :lol:

Thanks Brad.
Always appreciate the posting, on both forums....
keep up the good work....
bhmlurker
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Post by bhmlurker »

As always I and many others appreciate this invaluable public service. Thank you!!
DiehardDoc
Posts: 79
Joined: Thu Dec 06, 2007 1:05 am

Thanks Brad

Post by DiehardDoc »

Always appreciate your posts.

I had allocated 5% to VGPMX which had appreciated to 6-7% of my portfolio at one time, now down almost 25% from the top.

S: B:C 82:12:6

1 year return -8% 3 year return 3%

DiehardDoc.
aaronchall
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Newsletters

Post by aaronchall »

It's always been my impression that newsletters don't do very well. I imagine it's because they over-allocate to T-bills.

But then I'm personally biased against bonds in the first place.

Owners cruise, loaners lose.

Aaron
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Chip
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Post by Chip »

But then I'm personally biased against bonds in the first place.

Owners cruise, loaners lose.


IMO, not a good position for a financial advisor to take. Will you advise a 70 year old not to own any bonds?
IlliniSigEp
Posts: 202
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Location: Chicago

Re: Newsletters

Post by IlliniSigEp »

aaronchall wrote: But then I'm personally biased against bonds in the first place.

Owners cruise, loaners lose.
That has to be about the silliest thing I have ever read. You do realize the bond/cash market is larger than the stock market? I guess the world has this one wrong...

-Dave
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White Coat Investor
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Post by White Coat Investor »

Thanks Brad. That makes me feel a little better about my losses YTD.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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Vig Oren
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Coaker/Vig Lower Correlated Portfolio w/40% in fixed income

Post by Vig Oren »

Brad is gone till next month
Last edited by Vig Oren on Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
InvestingMom
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Post by InvestingMom »

Thanks. I always find this information useful and somewhat calming...I wish the long term columns were better, but hey, at least they are not negative. (I did not look at the short term results since it is too short of a period for comparisons...but I really like looking at the longer term figures.)
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tdhg566
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Post by tdhg566 »

Thanks very much for compiling and posting this information. I do look forward to reading this posting each month, regardless of what it says :lol:
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swaption
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Re: Newsletters

Post by swaption »

IlliniSigEp wrote:
aaronchall wrote: But then I'm personally biased against bonds in the first place.

Owners cruise, loaners lose.
That has to be about the silliest thing I have ever read. You do realize the bond/cash market is larger than the stock market? I guess the world has this one wrong...

-Dave
Like it or not, it's true. It's the price of safety. Unfortunately, often times even that safety is an illusion. As a lender, you are providing the means for the owners to make money. There is a much smaller volume of money that can take equity risks.
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