madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   Dec     YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2016    2016    2014    2012    2007    1999
VFINX              1.97%  11.82%   8.72%  14.49%   6.83%   5.26%
Sheltered Sam      2.29%  14.62%   6.87%  12.04%   5.40%   7.45%
Hot Hands          1.52%  -1.77%   1.00%  10.96%   2.88%  10.66%
                  
Newsletter G-IND   1.54%  12.00%   7.22%  13.08%   6.88%   6.49%
Newsletter G       1.48%   9.60%   7.22%  13.58%   6.85%   9.27%
s&d                2.05%   9.55%   5.14%   9.67%   5.14%   7.16%
3 fund             1.63%   8.16%   4.31%   9.40%   5.14%   5.54%
LS G               1.64%   8.33%   4.69%   9.73%   4.66%   5.00%

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Wellington         2.12%  11.01%   6.85%  10.44%   6.89%   7.36%
Newsletter CG      1.39%   9.60%   7.11%  12.51%   6.62%   7.75%
coffeehouse        1.73%   9.44%   5.83%   8.77%   5.78%   6.98%
STAR               0.89%   6.55%   4.53%   8.89%   5.56%   6.37%
LS MG              1.26%   7.13%   4.48%   7.96%   4.69%   5.08%
                  
Wellesley          1.34%   8.08%   5.76%   7.29%   6.66%   6.75%
Newsletter Inc     0.95%   6.40%   6.40%   9.76%   5.98%   5.71%
LS CG              0.92%   5.91%   4.18%   6.14%   4.38%   4.86%
                  
madsinger          1.40%   9.74%   4.15%   8.16%   4.91%   
madsinger PP      -0.01%   5.81%            
Last edited by madsinger on Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by madsinger »

2016 had a wide spray of returns, even within the year itself.

US stocks, measured by Total Stock Market index fund, returned about +12.5%. Large caps (S&P 500) returned about 12%, and small cap value returned almost 25% (the number one performing Vanguard investor class stock fund this year).

International stocks ran from slightly negative -0.8% in Europe, to slight positive 5.2% Pacific fund, to double digits +11.5% in Emerging Markets.

REITs ended about 8%, and Precious Metals, while up over 50% for the year, dropped 25% in the last five months of the year after being up over 98% in July.

My Permanent Portfolio finished the year with a 5.81% return. Bonds and Gold, while being rather high flyers though July, dropped the last five months of the year. Rebalancing out of Bonds at the beginning of the year helped the XIRR return of bonds, and the December rebalance out of stocks and back into bonds and gold produced a small rebalancing bonus for the last three months of the year.

In 2017, I'm staying the course that I've laid out for my AA. I hope you have all found an AA that works for you and that will sustain you financially in 2017 and beyond!

-Brad.

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           STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January   -4.97%    5.24%    0.09%   5.38%   1.25%
February  -0.18%    3.20%    0.08%  11.22%   3.47%
March      6.72%    0.06%    0.09%  -0.92%   1.45%
April      0.37%   -0.62%    0.09%   5.05%   1.27%
May        1.75%    0.77%    0.10%  -6.09%  -0.97%
June       0.22%    6.50%    0.08%   8.87%   3.83%

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July       3.65%    2.02%    0.09%   2.04%   1.98%
August     0.08%   -0.99%    0.09%  -3.23%  -1.02%
September -0.02%   -1.31%    0.08%   0.71%  -0.11%
October   -1.84%   -4.22%    0.09%  -2.92%  -2.17%
November   3.66%   -7.85%    0.09%  -8.36%  -2.93%
December   1.99%   -0.20%    0.08%  -1.80%   0.03%
               
YTD       11.49%    2.54%    1.07%   8.09%   5.81%
pkcrafter
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by pkcrafter »

Thanks, Brad. Always appreciate your work and informative posts.

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by gkaplan »

As of December 31, 2016, my year-to-date return is 7.78%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year rates of return are 1.65%, 7.76%, 2.93%, 6.79%, and 4.41%, respectively.

My best performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of 24.80%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are 45.93%, 24.73%, 9.05%, and 17.60 %, respectively.

My worst fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of -0.12%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are -4.26%, -.12%, -2.17%, and 7.24%, respectively.

My overall target allocation is 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

10.00%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
10.00%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
14.00%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
14.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging
40.00%: Fixed Income

As of December 31, 2016, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 60/40. Specifically, my current allocations are as follows.

09.97%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VVIAX)
09.95%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSIAX)
06.03%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEUSX)
05.99%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPADX)
14.04%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VFSVX)
14.02%: Foreign Markets Large and Small – Emerging (VEMAX)
07.62%: Fixed Income – TIPS (VAIPX)
28.57%: Fixed Income – TSP (G Fund)
03.82%: Fixed Income – Credit Union Money Market Fund

(The totals do not add to 100% because of rounding.)
Gordon
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by red5 »

I was also at 9.74% for 2016 (XIRR using Excel)

17/83 Fixed Income and Stocks (of which I am 60/40 US/INTL)
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by Rob5TCP »

Ten minutes reviewing your totals saves hours of trying to put it together myself.
Thank you again.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

For those that might not know, the wiki minions update Madsinger monthly reports - Bogleheads each month as these reports are posted. Useful if you want to check other periods/timeframes.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by madsinger »

Newsletter returns are now entered into the chart.

The "number 1 performing portfolio" in the past 10 years, by the slimmest of margins: Wellington at 6.89% annualized return. Makes me wonder why I'm even trying to do anything different than that!

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by investor »

Thanks Brad.

I discovered WELLINGTON decades ago..hard to beat it.

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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by MariaT »

Happy New Year!

Brad, as always, many thanks!

All the best,
-Maria
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by jmndu99 »

Thanks again Brad.

Happy healthy and prosperous New Year

James
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by jamacq »

madsinger wrote:Newsletter returns are now entered into the chart.

The "number 1 performing portfolio" in the past 10 years, by the slimmest of margins: Wellington at 6.89% annualized return. Makes me wonder why I'm even trying to do anything different than that!

-Brad.
I've been looking at the same thing in my summary of returns. I have a 60/40 allocation across multiple classes including a slight tilt to value and have been noticing that Wellington just seems to do as well or better in most individual years and across various periods. I enjoy following my allocation and feel like I've done something when I rebalance but I appear to be wasting time; My advice to my wife if she outlives me is to just go with Wellington and Wellesley to get to the right stock/bond mix. I may choose to go there myself and forget about it.

Jeff
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by sperry8 »

madsinger wrote:Newsletter returns are now entered into the chart.

The "number 1 performing portfolio" in the past 10 years, by the slimmest of margins: Wellington at 6.89% annualized return. Makes me wonder why I'm even trying to do anything different than that!

-Brad.
I was a former newsletter subscriber (and from time to time bounce back in as a short term subscriber as well). For all his work in/out etc, it's amazing that Wellington beats him. He earns substantive fees from that newsletter (I don't begrudge that) and of course from managing peoples money. And at the end of the day a simple 100% Wellington fund ties the guy. Yet, like you, I continue to look for an edge! :confused Just human emotion obviously - the facts say don't bother.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2016)

Post by vencat »

Hi Brad,
Thanks for all the great work!
Any chance you'll be adding the Larry portfolio, Robert T portfolio or any factor portfolio such as:
Larry Portfolio:
-70% Intermediate Treasuries or CDs
-10% each of DFA SCV (now BOSVX), ISV, and EMV

Modified Larry Portfolio (I'm making up the percentages for the last there so please correct):
-50% Intermediate Treasuries or CDs
-10% each of DFA SCV (now BOSVX), ISV, and EMV
-10% managed futures ACMIX
-5% QSPIX
-5% Reinsurance and private lending

Robert T's Portfolio:
-23% Vanguard Midcap Value ETF
-9% IJS
-5% Bridgeway Small Company
-23% iShare EAFE Value
-5% iShare EAFE Small
-10% Vanguard EM
-25% intermediate term Treasuries
Venkat
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