madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2008 returns, 2008 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 (9 years 6 months, 7 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

New for 2008, I've added the "Hot Hands" fund, and the Newsletter "Growth Index" portfolio. I've also rearranged the columns so the far right is the "longest" time period, and the far left is the shortest.

The madsinger portfolio, my real-money portfolio (slice-n-dice, approximately 66/5/3/26 stock/REIT/PM/bond) is included at the end.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                 June    YTD      since   since   since   since
                 2008    2008     2005    2003    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -6.42%  -13.75%  10.63%  20.22%  14.61%  16.39%
Sheltered Sam    -9.29%   -9.90%   6.95%  14.16%   7.12%   7.60%
VFINX            -8.43%  -11.96%   3.40%   9.06%   1.23%   1.99%

s&d              -7.77%   -8.15%   6.50%  12.92%   7.05%   7.61%
Newsletter G-IND -7.58%   -8.60%   8.43%  13.22%   6.37%   5.26%
Newsletter G     -7.79%  -10.10%   7.89%  13.57%   5.86%  10.20%
3 fund           -6.74%   -8.51%   6.70%  11.79%   4.87%   5.02%
LS G             -7.57%   -9.93%   5.38%  10.75%   3.91%   4.21%
                        
Wellington       -5.02%   -5.52%   6.76%  10.14%   6.79%   6.91%
coffeehouse      -5.84%   -5.55%   4.96%   9.94%   6.54%   6.80%
STAR             -5.05%   -6.78%   5.14%   9.46%   5.35%   6.11%
newsletter CG    -7.13%   -8.80%   6.53%  11.66%   5.24%   7.57%
LS MG            -5.92%   -7.56%   5.06%   9.17%   4.37%   4.58%

Wellesley        -3.41%   -4.51%   4.36%   5.98%   5.92%   5.84%
newsletter Inc   -4.53%   -5.20%   4.22%   7.67%   4.68%   4.32%
LS CG            -4.19%   -5.18%   4.64%   7.45%   4.54%   4.74%

madsinger        -6.44%   -6.14%   6.76%            
Last edited by madsinger on Mon Jul 07, 2008 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

I don't have the newsletter returns yet, and I'll be out of town through the end of the week. I'll update when I get back.

Well...

Most stock funds were down 8 to 10 percent for the month. Small Cap Value -11.56% for the month. Bonds were mostly flat, and Precious Metals held up with a -1.14% loss. Not surprisingly, the portfolios were down pretty much in line with their stock/bond percentages. 80/20s down 7-8%, 60/40s down 5-6%, 40/60s down 3-4%.

Factoid of the month:

YTD, Total Stock and Total Int'l are both down -10.91%

(so much for diversification!)

(kidding!)

The Hot Hands fund was one of the better performing stock funds this month, down "only" -6.42%!

I hope this "test" (sadly, only a test...the real one will be bigger) of people's portfolios has helped them understand if they are comfortable with their AA plans, or if they are taking on too much stock market risk.

Right now, I'm feeling happy with my plan. I'll be moving some money into the "large value" part of my portfolio this month (from bonds) as part of rebalancing.

"BUY-HOLD-REBALANCE BUY-HOLD-REBALANCE BUY-HOLD-REBALANCE..."

-Brad.
statsman
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Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 7:34 pm

Post by statsman »

madsinger wrote:Not surprisingly, the portfolios were down pretty much in line with their stock/bond percentages. 80/20s down 7-8%, 60/40s down 5-6%, 40/60s down 3-4%.
That falls in line with our 401(k)s for June 2008.

My 401(k) was down 2.99% with a 37.5/62.5 portfolio (25.5/12 US/Foreign).
My wife's 401(k) was down about 2.5% with a 35/65 portfolio (28/7 US/Foreign).
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etc06
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Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2007 6:56 pm

Post by etc06 »

On the bright side, look at those nice CAGR numbers since 2003!

Thanks for making these numbers available.
investor
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Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:50 pm

Post by investor »

newsletter returns for June, YTD, I Yr, as follows:

Growth -7.8, -10.1, -10.0
Con G -7.1, -8.8, -8.6
Income -4.6, -5.2, -7.1
Grow Idx -7.6, -8.6, -7.7
gkaplan
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Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:34 pm
Location: Portland, Oregon

Post by gkaplan »

As of 06/30/2008, the year-to-date return on my retirement portfolio is –4.67%. My one-year rate of return is –2.43%. My three-year rate of return is 8.50%.

My best performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Admiral Shares (5.81%). My one-year rate of return is 16.62%. My rate of return for this fund since its inception (in other words, since I converted from the Investor Shares class) is 6.42%.

My poorest performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard Value Index Fund Investor Shares (-14.56%). My one-year rate of return is –20.29%. My three-year rate of return for this fund is 2.24%.

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

71.86%: Vanguard Roth IRA (YTD Return, -2.97%)
28.14%: Thrift Savings Plan (YTD Return, -1.42%)

My target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 72/28 Equity/Fixed Income. The seventy-two percent equity allocation is split equally between domestic and foreign equity; the foreign equity is split 2:1 between developed and emerging markets. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

12%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
12%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
12%: Domestic REIT
24%: Foreign Developed Markets (Large)
12%: Foreign Emerging Markets (Large)
28%: Fixed Income

As of 06/30/2008, my current retirement portfolio allocation is split 65/35, Equity/Fixed Income.

My Domestic Equity/Foreign Equity/Fixed Income is split 34/31.

Specifically, my current allocations (as of 06/30/2008) are as follows.

10.71%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VIVAX)
10.80%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VISVX)
12.74%: Domestic REIT (VGSIX)
19.88%: Foreign Developed Markets – Large (9%, TSP I Fund; 10.87%, VDMIX)*
11.00%: Foreign Emerging Markets – Large (VEIEX)
34.90%: Fixed Income (%, TSP G Fund;, Vanguard TIPS Fund)**

* Foreign Developed Markets does not equal 19.88% because of rounding.

**Total allocation does not equal 100% because of rounding.
Gordon
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

Thanks to all who posted, and for the newsletter return information. I have updated the chart in the original post to include all returns. Not a pretty month!

-Brad.
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