madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   July    YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2016    2016    2013    2011    2006    1999
VFINX              3.68%   7.58%  13.36%  12.50%   7.52%   5.16%
Sheltered Sam      4.29%  11.80%  10.59%   9.59%   6.88%   7.48%
Hot Hands          5.62%  -0.18%  11.02%   9.76%   5.48%  11.03%
                  
Newsletter G       4.61%   6.60%  12.91%  11.25%   7.89%   9.33%
Newsletter G-IND   3.90%   9.20%  12.22%  11.08%   7.74%   6.50%
s&d                3.54%   8.01%   8.23%   7.82%   6.52%   7.25%
3 fund             3.41%   6.41%   7.92%   7.60%   6.22%   5.58%
LS G               3.45%   6.58%   8.34%   7.91%   5.72%   5.03%

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Wellington         2.39%   7.52%   9.24%   9.42%   7.59%   7.34%
Newsletter CG      4.41%   6.50%  11.64%  10.76%   7.44%   7.77%
coffeehouse        2.75%   8.58%   7.95%   8.05%   6.79%   7.11%
STAR               3.42%   5.91%   7.70%   7.96%   6.28%   6.49%
LS MG              2.79%   6.63%   7.05%   7.06%   5.62%   5.17%
                  
Wellesley          1.38%   9.11%   7.01%   8.46%   7.45%   6.97%
Newsletter Inc     3.01%   6.10%   9.46%   9.61%   6.63%   5.83%
LS CG              2.12%   6.65%   5.69%   5.94%   5.20%   5.02%
                  
madsinger          3.05%  10.27%   7.62%   6.97%   6.21%   
madsinger PP       1.98%  12.88%            
Last edited by madsinger on Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by madsinger »

Portfolios up in July. Stock funds up in the 3% to 5% range. Bonds up 0.5% to 1.0%. Vanguard's precious metals and mining fund up another 11% to reach a year to date return of 98%.

All three non-cash components of the permanent portfolio had a good month...3.65% for S&P 500 and 2% for long bonds and gold.

Did a little rebalance today, selling some US stock for the cash position in my PP:

Code: Select all

          STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  -4.97%    5.24%   0.09%    5.38%   1.25%
February -0.18%    3.20%   0.08%   11.22%   3.47%
March     6.72%    0.06%   0.09%   -0.92%   1.45%
April     0.37%   -0.62%   0.09%    5.05%   1.27%
May       1.75%    0.77%   0.10%   -6.09%  -0.97%
June      0.22%    6.50%   0.08%    8.87%   3.83%
July      3.65%    2.02%   0.09%    2.04%   1.98%
               
YTD       7.39%   18.72%   0.63%   27.27%  12.88%
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Dutch
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by Dutch »

madsinger wrote:Vanguard's precious metals and mining fund up another 11% to reach a year to date return of 98%.
Go VGPMX ! :beer
scone
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by scone »

Is the Hot Hands portfolio some sort of momentum thing?
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by cfs »

Thanks.

Thank you Brad for all the hard work. I look forward to reading this monthly report. I see that Mister Hot Hands is playing catch up in 2016. Wishing everyone a productive August, September, October, November, and December 2016.

Thanks for reading.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
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cfs
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by cfs »

scone wrote:Is the Hot Hands portfolio some sort of momentum thing?
Here is all you need to know about the Hot Hands approach, from Dan Wiener [the inventor]:

http://invstplc.com/1nwANsT

Thanks for reading.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by madsinger »

updated with Newsletter returns for July.
John Z
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by John Z »

Thank you kindly again! Every couple of months is fine; even every quarter. Modified coffeehouse 50/50.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by investor »

Thanks Brad..
Wellington and Wellesley still solid investments...like the Energizer Rabbit....

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Groundlifter
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by Groundlifter »

I've been a subscriber of Dan's newsletter for a couple years now but am considering not renewing. I'm locked out of two of the core holdings in the growth portfolio (closed), and don't see enough value in the newsletters themselves to keep paying. But knowing the current raw makeup of the portfolios themselves is still valuable information. The portfolios don't change too often (as they shouldn't), but when they do it's important to stay up to date.

Does anyone know if his portfolios are posted and kept up to date anywhere without a paywall? Or should I stop being so cheap and just keep paying the hundred bucks a year?
heyyou
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by heyyou »

44% of my current gain for this year, occurred in July. Haven't tinkered with the allocation for a decade, so far, so good.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by investor »

Groundlifter wrote:I've been a subscriber of Dan's newsletter for a couple years now but am considering not renewing. I'm locked out of two of the core holdings in the growth portfolio (closed), and don't see enough value in the newsletters themselves to keep paying. But knowing the current raw makeup of the portfolios themselves is still valuable information. The portfolios don't change too often (as they shouldn't), but when they do it's important to stay up to date.

Does anyone know if his portfolios are posted and kept up to date anywhere without a paywall? Or should I stop being so cheap and just keep paying the hundred bucks a year?
Portfilios are subscription and not going to be posted anywhere else. At about $99 a year it should not dent your portfolio that much. I think the forum is worth the subscription price. Your money, your choice.

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Wagnerjb
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by Wagnerjb »

investor wrote:
Portfilios are subscription and not going to be posted anywhere else. At about $99 a year it should not dent your portfolio that much. I think the forum is worth the subscription price. Your money, your choice.

investor
For a beginning investor with $20,000 in investments the $100 turns a low cost index fund with a 0.20% ER into a high cost fund with a 0.70% ER. To make matters worse, Wiener will be steering the investor to higher cost active funds as well. Just say No.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2016)

Post by investor »

Wiener Growth fund portfolio has ER's of 0.33%, 0.45%, 0.20%,0.20%, 0.47%, 0.36%, 0.20%.
You decide what is high ER's. I do not use any of the portfolios but take the newsletter for information. Just like I read this forum for information but dance to my own tune...

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