madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

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madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 5 months, 10 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                    May     YTD     since   since   since   since
                    2016    2016    2013    2011    2006    1999
VFINX               1.79%   3.51%  14.17%  12.11%   7.24%   4.97%
Sheltered Sam       0.37%   5.35%  10.29%   8.70%   6.38%   7.19%
Hot Hands           1.44%   0.06%  12.82%  10.13%   5.59%  11.15%
                  
Newsletter G        1.79%   2.30%  13.55%  10.77%   7.60%   9.17%
Newsletter G-IND    1.75%   4.50%  12.67%  10.53%   7.41%   6.29%
s&d                 0.69%   3.52%   8.14%   7.22%   6.19%   7.06%
3 fund              0.59%   2.67%   8.00%   7.13%   5.96%   5.42%
LS G                0.57%   2.82%   8.47%   7.44%   5.45%   4.86%

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Wellington          0.79%   4.20%   9.65%   9.09%   7.39%   7.22%
Newsletter CG       1.59%   2.50%  12.19%  10.33%   7.16%   7.61%
coffeehouse         0.77%   4.07%   7.82%   7.46%   6.46%   6.92%
STAR                0.72%   2.49%   7.84%   7.56%   6.05%   6.35%
LS MG               0.47%   3.08%   7.06%   6.61%   5.37%   5.02%
                  
Wellesley           0.59%   5.33%   6.97%   8.02%   7.21%   6.82%
Newsletter Inc      0.88%   2.60%   9.83%   9.24%   6.39%   5.68%
LS CG               0.33%   3.33%   5.57%   5.51%   4.97%   4.88%
                  
madsinger          -0.10%   4.98%   7.22%   6.22%   5.81%   
madsinger PP       -0.94%   6.63%            
Last edited by madsinger on Thu Jun 02, 2016 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by madsinger »

US stocks up 1% to 2% for the month. Internationals down a little. Bonds were flat. Gold dropped -6%, and the precious metals fund fell over -10%.

Permanent portfolio was dragged down a bit by gold, but YTD this has been a net positive.

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          STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  -4.97%    5.24%    0.09%   5.38%    1.25%
February -0.18%    3.20%    0.08%  11.22%    3.47%
March     6.72%    0.06%    0.09%  -0.92%    1.45%
April     0.37%   -0.62%    0.09%   5.05%    1.27%
May       1.75%    0.77%    0.10%  -6.09%   -0.97%
               
YTD       3.39%    9.41%    0.45%  14.57%    6.63%
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by John Z »

Thank you once again!
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by investor »

Thanks Brad.
sure hard to ignore the W/W funds.... Wellington & Welesley.

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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by jfave33 »

investor wrote:Thanks Brad.
sure hard to ignore the W/W funds.... Wellington & Welesley.

investor
I always look at these threads to see how good old wellington and Wellesley are holding up. Always near the top.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by LadyGeek »

Background info, including a list of all the prior threads is in the wiki: Madsinger monthly reports

The wiki has been updated for May 2016. (By another editor, I'm just the messenger.)
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by Mel Lindauer »

Sure would like to see "Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps" added to these regular monthly reports, Brad. Any chance of that happening?
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by LadyGeek »

The wiki has some background info: Mid caps, the bottom of the article has links to "Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps".

"Mel" refers to Mel Lindauer (the post above). Is there any guidance on the portfolio composition?
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by Ever Ready »

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Last edited by Ever Ready on Wed Jun 01, 2016 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by btenny »

Does anyone have a analysis of why Wellington and Wellesley have done so well over the last 10-15 years? Is it purely that they invested smartly in corporate bonds or are the some other tricks they are using as well?

Just curious...
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by madsinger »

Mel Lindauer wrote:Sure would like to see "Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps" added to these regular monthly reports, Brad. Any chance of that happening?
For you, Mel? Okay!

I used the "investor" share values (VIMSX) because that is the class I use for all portfolios here.

Comparing the Midcap index fund with the S&P 500 fund, the past five years have favored the larger cap fund (12.11% to 11.16%) while the five years before that favored the Midcaps (4.20% to 2.20%). The real stunning outperformance of the midcaps occurred during the 2000-2005 run. These six years, the midcap fund returned 10.75%, while the S&P 500 lost -1.23% per year (total return 84.55% vs -7.13%).

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                    May     YTD     since   since   since   since
                    2016    2016    2013    2011    2006    1999
VIMSX               1.86%   3.54%  14.00%  11.16%   7.80%   9.23%
VFINX               1.79%   3.51%  14.17%  12.11%   7.24%   4.97%
Sheltered Sam       0.37%   5.35%  10.29%   8.70%   6.38%   7.19%
Hot Hands           1.44%   0.06%  12.82%  10.13%   5.59%  11.15%
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by dkturner »

btenny wrote:Does anyone have a analysis of why Wellington and Wellesley have done so well over the last 10-15 years? Is it purely that they invested smartly in corporate bonds or are the some other tricks they are using as well?

Just curious...
This isn't a scientific analysis, but it would seem that the managers pay attention to momentum. Both of these funds are "value" funds and value funds have not faired well over the last 10-15 years. As an example the Vanguard Value Index Fund has annualized returns of 6.2% and 5.3% over the last 10 and 15 years, respectively, while the Vanguard Growth Index Fund has had annualized returns of 8.6% and 5.9% over the last 10 and 15 years, respectively. It would seem that the managers of the W&W funds have tilted their equity holdings to more "growthy" value stocks in recent years. They also vary their exposure to international equities, which have faired poorly lately. I would characterize the managers of these two funds as "enterprising investors".
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by Mel Lindauer »

madsinger wrote:
Mel Lindauer wrote:Sure would like to see "Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps" added to these regular monthly reports, Brad. Any chance of that happening?
For you, Mel? Okay!

I used the "investor" share values (VIMSX) because that is the class I use for all portfolios here.

Comparing the Midcap index fund with the S&P 500 fund, the past five years have favored the larger cap fund (12.11% to 11.16%) while the five years before that favored the Midcaps (4.20% to 2.20%). The real stunning outperformance of the midcaps occurred during the 2000-2005 run. These six years, the midcap fund returned 10.75%, while the S&P 500 lost -1.23% per year (total return 84.55% vs -7.13%).

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                    May     YTD     since   since   since   since
                    2016    2016    2013    2011    2006    1999
VIMSX               1.86%   3.54%  14.00%  11.16%   7.80%   9.23%
VFINX               1.79%   3.51%  14.17%  12.11%   7.24%   4.97%
Sheltered Sam       0.37%   5.35%  10.29%   8.70%   6.38%   7.19%
Hot Hands           1.44%   0.06%  12.82%  10.13%   5.59%  11.15%
Thanks, Brad. Hopefully you'll make Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps a regular part of your monthly reports.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by madsinger »

The chart has been completed with portfolio returns for May.

Mel, I will consider adding the midcap index to the "all stocks" portion of the chart. I have not wanted to arbitrarily add things that have recently come into fashion...but I believe you've been asking for midcaps in the chart for over 10 years!

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Post by Mel Lindauer »

madsinger wrote:The chart has been completed with portfolio returns for May.

Mel, I will consider adding the midcap index to the "all stocks" portion of the chart. I have not wanted to arbitrarily add things that have recently come into fashion...but I believe you've been asking for midcaps in the chart for over 10 years!

-Brad.
This definitely isn't a case of recently, Brad. Actually, It started with my discussion/debate with Larry Swedroe on the M* forum back in 2000, so we're talking about 16 years.
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSoc ... ageIndex=1

Because they were ignored by the slice-and-dice crowd and my suggestion to use them as a possible better alternate to the usual slice-and-dice of large and small, they became known as "Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps".
https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=c ... d+mid-caps

Thanks for your very informative work, Brad.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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