madsinger monthly report (March 2016)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   March   YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2016    2016    2013    2011    2006    1999
VFINX              6.77%   1.31%  14.19%  12.05%   7.14%   4.89%
Sheltered Sam      7.98%   2.81%  10.02%   8.49%   6.24%   7.11%
Hot Hands          7.57%  -2.01%  12.79%  10.03%   5.47%  11.13%
                  
Newsletter G       6.08%  -0.50%  13.32%  10.54%   7.43%   9.08%
Newsletter G-IND   6.92%   2.00%  12.52%  10.38%   7.28%   6.21%
s&d                6.61%   1.83%   8.02%   7.12%   6.12%   7.03%
3 fund             6.05%   1.01%   7.88%   7.03%   5.89%   5.37%
LS G               6.16%   1.14%   8.37%   7.35%   5.37%   4.81%

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Wellington         5.08%   1.91%   9.42%   8.93%   7.28%   7.16%
Newsletter CG      5.71%  -0.10%  11.97%  10.13%   7.02%   7.53%
coffeehouse        5.16%   2.57%   7.75%   7.41%   6.42%   6.90%
STAR               5.07%   0.56%   7.63%   7.42%   5.96%   6.30%
LS MG              4.82%   1.69%   6.99%   6.55%   5.32%   4.98%
                  
Wellesley          3.52%   3.77%   6.85%   7.98%   7.18%   6.80%
Newsletter Inc     4.34%   0.90%   9.79%   9.20%   6.33%   5.64%
LS CG              3.48%   2.26%   5.52%   5.48%   4.94%   4.86%
                  
madsinger          4.52%   3.79%   7.23%   6.20%   5.79%   
madsinger PP       1.46%   6.28%            

[madsinger]

madsinger permanent portfolio returns:

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          STOCK  LONG BOND   CASH     GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  -4.97%    5.24%     0.09%    5.38%   1.25%
February -0.18%    3.20%     0.08%   11.22%   3.47%
March     6.72%    0.06%     0.09%   -0.92%   1.45%
               
YTD       1.23%    9.03%     0.26%   16.13%   6.28%

[madsinger]

The newsletter website has a couple of inconsistencies in the numbers. I am guessing that the Newsletter Growth Index portfolio is +2.0% YTD, not -2.0%, and the Income portfolio is +0.9% YTD not -0.9%. Is there anyone out there that can confirm this? This is how I have entered the numbers on the chart. If I learn that this is incorrect, I will update the chart.

-Brad.

[gkaplan]

As of March 31, 2016, my year-to-date return is 1.65%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year rates of return are 6.77%, -2.38%, 3.60%, 3.90%, and 4.71%, respectively.

My best performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VEMAX), with a year-to-date return of 5.33%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are 23.17%, -9.86%, -3.48%, and -3.31% respectively.

My worst fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VEUSX), with a year-to-date return -2.36%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are -9.15%, -7.66%, 4.09%, and 2.84%, respectively.

My overall target allocation is 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

10.00%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
10.00%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
14.00%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
14.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging
40.00%: Fixed Income

As of March 31, 2016, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 60/40. Specifically, my current allocations are as follows.

09.69%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VVIAX)
09.86%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSIAX)
05.57%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEUSX)
05.63%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPADX)
13.52%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VFSVX)
14.22%: Foreign Markets Large and Small – Emerging (VEMAX)
07.83%: Fixed Income – TIPS (VAIPX)
30.87%: Fixed Income – TSP (G Fund)
02.81%: Fixed Income – Credit Union Money Market Fund

[LadyGeek]

The wiki has been updated: Madsinger monthly reports *

* The wiki is a collaborative effort. Click on the View history tab in the top right corner to see which editor made the update. It wasn't me.

[investor]

The newsletter website has a couple of inconsistencies in the numbers. I am guessing that the Newsletter Growth Index portfolio is +2.0% YTD, not -2.0%, and the Income portfolio is +0.9% YTD not -0.9%. Is there anyone out there that can confirm this? This is how I have entered the numbers on the chart. If I learn that this is incorrect, I will update the chart.

-Brad.

Brad you are correct.. thanks for your effort and postings.

investor

[Jaxfann]

Which one is the 40% stock / 60% bond investment?

[jmndu99]

As Always, thanks Brad

[madsinger]

Which one is the 40% stock / 60% bond investment?

The 40/60 portfolios are represented by:

Wellesley Income Fund, the Life Strategy Conservative Growth Fund and the "Newsletter Income" portfolio (although I've been told that the Newsletter Income fund typically has a higher stock percentage than 40%).

-Brad.

[Levett]

On a risk-adjusted basis, Wellesley just keeps chugging along. Boringly gratifying (and no secret sauce to speak off).

And, of course, there will be times when the fund lags.

Lev

[Jaxfann]

Which one is the 40% stock / 60% bond investment?

The 40/60 portfolios are represented by:

Wellesley Income Fund, the Life Strategy Conservative Growth Fund and the "Newsletter Income" portfolio (although I've been told that the Newsletter Income fund typically has a higher stock percentage than 40%).

-Brad.

Thanks Brad - I use both and thought one of the other portfolios might be a 2 fund or 3 fund approach.

This information is very useful to me and I thank your for taking the time.

[Jaxfann]

On a risk-adjusted basis, Wellesley just keeps chugging along. Boringly gratifying (and no secret sauce to speak off).

And, of course, there will be times when the fund lags.

Lev

What a great fund!