madsinger monthly report (February 2016)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                     CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  February  YTD      since   since   since   since
                   2016     2016     2013    2011    2006    1999
VFINX             -0.14%   -5.11%   12.24%  10.85%   6.51%   4.52%
Sheltered Sam      0.44%   -4.78%    7.65%   7.03%   5.49%   6.67%
Hot Hands         -2.40%   -8.91%   10.57%   8.65%   4.76%  10.72%
                  
Newsletter G       0.32%   -6.20%   11.60%   9.46%   6.88%   8.75%
Newsletter G-IND   0.42%   -4.60%   10.51%   9.13%   6.64%   5.82%
s&d               -0.34%   -4.49%    6.07%   5.92%   5.51%   6.67%
3 fund            -0.55%   -4.75%    6.11%   5.94%   5.33%   5.04%
LS G              -0.57%   -4.73%    6.57%   6.24%   4.79%   4.47%

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Wellington        -0.26%   -3.02%    7.98%   8.03%   6.82%   6.88%
Newsletter CG      0.32%   -5.50%   10.35%   9.12%   6.49%   7.22%
coffeehouse        0.25%   -2.47%    6.26%   6.49%   5.95%   6.62%
STAR              -0.57%   -4.29%    6.16%   6.52%   5.49%   6.02%
LS MG             -0.22%   -2.99%    5.59%   5.69%   4.88%   4.72%
                  
Wellesley          0.44%    0.24%    5.87%   7.39%   6.88%   6.62%
Newsletter Inc     0.10%   -3.30%    8.60%   8.46%   5.94%   5.40%
LS CG              0.17%   -1.18%    4.54%   4.87%   4.63%   4.68%
                  
madsinger          1.46%   -0.70%    5.94%   5.39%   5.38%   
madsinger PP       3.46%    4.75%            

[madsinger]

February, while volatile, ended rather tamely. Most portfolios within a percentage point of flat. A couple of wild outliers: Vanguard precious metals and mining fund up over 23% for the month! Gold itself up over 11% for the month. Long bonds up over 3% for the month, on top of a 5% gain in January brings them up almost 9% for the first two months of the year.

Not surprisingly, the permanent portfolio looks very good in the first two months of the year, with gold and long bonds posting truly outsized returns.

-Brad.

madsinger permanent portfolio:

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           STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH     GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January   -4.97%    5.24%    0.09%    5.38%   1.25%
February  -0.18%    3.20%    0.08%   11.22%   3.47%
               
YTD       -5.15%    8.69%    0.17%   17.20%   4.75%

[Dutch]

Yes, hooray for VGPMX. Too bad my cost basis is still slightly above the current price.

[LadyGeek]

The wiki has been updated: Madsinger monthly reports

The wiki is a collaborative effort. Click on the "View history" tab (top right corner) to see who updated the article.

[investor]

Thanks Brad

Wellington and Wellesley looking good…again

investor

[cinghiale]

Brad,

Thanks once again for posting these stats. Like investor, I like to see where Wellesley Income, my one concession to active management and the cornerstone of my retirement savings, stands in relation to the other portfolios and funds.