madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  January  YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2016    2016    2013    2011    2006    1999
VFINX             -4.98%  -4.98%  12.64%  11.06%   6.58%   4.55%
Sheltered Sam     -5.20%  -5.20%   7.71%   7.05%   5.49%   6.67%
Hot Hands         -6.67%  -6.67%  11.74%   9.32%   5.06%  10.93%
                  
Newsletter G      -6.50%  -6.50%  11.81%   9.55%   6.90%   8.78%
Newsletter G-IND  -5.00%  -5.00%  10.66%   9.20%   6.65%   5.83%
s&d               -4.17%  -4.17%   6.36%   6.09%   5.59%   6.72%
3 fund            -4.23%  -4.23%   6.47%   6.15%   5.43%   5.10%
LS G              -4.18%  -4.18%   6.95%   6.46%   4.89%   4.53%

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Wellington        -2.77%  -2.77%   8.29%   8.23%   6.91%   6.94%
Newsletter CG     -5.80%  -5.80%  10.53%   9.21%   6.51%   7.23%
coffeehouse       -2.71%  -2.71%   6.35%   6.55%   5.98%   6.64%
STAR              -3.74%  -3.74%   6.53%   6.75%   5.60%   6.09%
LS MG             -2.78%  -2.78%   5.82%   5.84%   4.94%   4.76%
                  
Wellesley         -0.20%  -0.20%   5.88%   7.42%   6.89%   6.62%
Newsletter Inc    -3.40%  -3.40%   8.80%   8.58%   5.97%   5.42%
LS CG             -1.35%  -1.35%   4.60%   4.92%   4.65%   4.69%
                  
madsinger         -2.13%  -2.13%   5.61%   5.18%   5.28%   
madsinger PP       1.25%   1.25%            
Last edited by madsinger on Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Post by madsinger »

No surprises here, assuming you have heard anything about the stock market in the past month. Stock funds lost in the range of -5% to -7% for the month of January. REITs a little less bad at -3.36%, precious metals fund down -2.2%. Bonds were up for the month, Total Bond fund up 1.43%.

The permanent portfolio portion of the madsinger portfolio zagged while the market zigged. The long bond fund (+5.24%) and Gold (+5.38%) more than offset the losses in stocks (down -4.97%). Cash did its thing. The cautionary part for the permanent portfolio crowd is this is just about exactly what last January looked like (gold and long bonds up really big), and they suffered the rest of the year.

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         STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January -4.97%    5.24%    0.09%   5.38%    1.25%
I hope you all were comfortable with your portfolios this past month. There was nothing really out of the ordinary in these returns, and this should not have really been a "gut check" for your portfolio. If it was, it may be worth reconsidering your risk tolerance.

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Post by jjustice »

Wellington is hard to beat!

John
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Report link has been added to the wiki -- Madsinger monthly reports
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Post by investor »

Thanks Brad.
here is your missing newsletter information
January and YTD
Growth (6.5)%
Cons Gtrowth (5.8)%
Income Model (3.4)%
Growth Idx (5.0)


investor
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Post by madsinger »

investor wrote:Thanks Brad.
here is your missing newsletter information
January and YTD
Growth (6.5)%
Cons Gtrowth (5.8)%
Income Model (3.4)%
Growth Idx (5.0)


investor
Thank you investor! I will update my charts in the morning (after a few hours of sleep)!

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Post by madsinger »

Chart has been updated with Newsletter returns. Others have pointed out over the past few years that the newsletter's portfolios are more stock heavy than the others in the chart. I have resisted moving them from their "growth", "moderate growth", "conservative growth" sections, as these are flexible portfolios, and may move their allocations around. This month shows that they are probably more into stocks than their others.

I find it interesting that Wellington, Wellesley, and the Newsletter Growth portfolio have virtually identical returns over the past 10 years and 1 month.

My madsinger portfolio looks rather sickly compared with these other portfolios. For most of these years, the bond portion of my portfolio was very short, and has cost me about 1% per year compared with had I used a more "total" bond approach. This past year, I've also shifted about 11% of my portfolio into gold which dropped this past year. I am happy with my portfolio, and feel that it is behaving just as I have set it up to do. But, I wanted to give a little "public" explanation for why my numbers look like they do.

Wishing you all well,
Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2016)

Post by madsinger »

Hit a rebalancing band yesterday. Sold some Long Bond mutual fund (up +8.85% YTD) and bought Total International Fund (down -10.52% YTD). While my "gut" thinks selling long bonds feels right (these rates are "sure" to rise, right?), buying the international stock fund (can only keep going down, right?) "felt" like the wrong thing to do. However, rebalancing when I hit the rebalancing band is not a "gut" or "feel" method, but rather a rationally determined approach that I am comfortable with...more comfortable than following my "gut"!

(now, I hope "buy low" doesn't give me the regret of "I should have waited...")

-Brad.
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