2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

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surfer1
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Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:35 pm

2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Post by surfer1 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:11 am

Now that the 2016 Boglehead Contest has officially begun, I thought it would be interesting to perform a basic analysis of the entries. I'll leave it to the experts to draw any conclusions, but I will make one observation: Bogleheads have an overall positive outlook for the year!

Some notable entries:

- Marester with a guess of 2108.00 on 1/1/2016, the closest (and earliest) bid to the average guess of 2108.05.
- xjz with a guess of 6000.02, had to be omitted from being drawn on the charts or skew the resolution!
- Mel Lindauer and LadyGeek with the largest bogleheads.org posting history, giving a respective bearish (1313.13) and bullish (2092.99) guess.

Without further adieu, here are the charts!

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cfs
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Re: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Post by cfs » Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:17 am

surfer1 wrote:. . . . I thought it would be interesting to perform a basic analysis of the entries . . .
Thanks to our shipmate Surfer for all the work on these good looking charts. Good luck to everyone (bulls and bears).

Thanks again.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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VictoriaF
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Re: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Post by VictoriaF » Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:18 am

Thank you, surfer1 !

Is it possible to get a chart contrasting predictions posted before 4 January and after? The first-day drop may have influenced the results.

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

sawhorse
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Re: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Post by sawhorse » Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:03 pm

Thanks so much for putting this together! Is the average the median or mean?

In the chart saying that 34% of the guesses are within 100 points, is that 100 points on each side of the average, or 50 points on each side?

Mel Lindauer's guess is really spooking me out! I wonder what Bogle's guess would be.

xjz
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Re: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Post by xjz » Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:15 pm

surfer1 wrote:- xjz with a guess of 6000.02, had to be omitted from being drawn on the charts or skew the resolution!
Sorry :) I just wanted to ensure my place at the top of the inverted scoreboard.

Miriam2
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Re: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Post by Miriam2 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:09 pm

Do we know where the Wall Street Professionals (are there 15 this year?) end up in these charts?
Does any one know who they are? How they "guess?"

renter
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Re: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Post by renter » Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:36 pm

It's only been what, a week? And I can't even remember if I was bullish or bearish when I entered the contest.

Topic Author
surfer1
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Re: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Post by surfer1 » Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:46 am

Miriam2 wrote:Do we know where the Wall Street Professionals (are there 15 this year?) end up in these charts?
Does any one know who they are? How they "guess?"
They're listed on the contest site with a little asterisk next to their bid. There were 10 bids from experts and they're all bullish. The average expert guess is 2192.50.

moshe
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Re: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Post by moshe » Thu Mar 31, 2016 10:16 pm

Is the site down?

Firefox can't find the server at http://www.lostsprings.com.

Thanks,
~Moshe
My money has no emotions. ~Moshe | | I'm the world's greatest expert on my own opinion. ~Bruce Williams

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FiveK
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Re: 2016 Boglehead Contest Analysis

Post by FiveK » Sat Apr 02, 2016 3:17 pm

moshe wrote:Is the site down?

Firefox can't find the server at http://www.lostsprings.com.

Thanks,
~Moshe
See viewtopic.php?f=10&t=188227:

Ralph Arveson, programmer extraordinaire of our Boglehead Contest website, has moved the website to a new location. This is the link:

2016 Boglehead Contest

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