madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 0 months, 10 years 0 months, 5 years 0 months, 3 years 0 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                December   YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2015     2015    2013    2011    2006    1999
VFINX            -1.59%    1.25%  14.96%  12.40%   7.19%   4.89%
Sheltered Sam    -1.85%   -2.79%   9.88%   8.33%   6.10%   7.04%
Hot Hands        -0.89%    0.94%  14.70%  11.00%   5.83%  11.44%
                
Newsletter G     -1.65%    1.40%  14.70%  11.21%   7.68%   9.25%
Newsletter G-IND -2.36%   -0.50%  12.88%  10.48%   7.26%   6.18%
s&d              -1.54%   -1.21%   8.07%   7.10%   6.09%   7.02%
3 fund           -1.71%   -1.11%   8.20%   7.18%   5.93%   5.39%
LS G             -1.72%   -1.17%   8.68%   7.49%   5.39%   4.81%

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Wellington       -1.37%    0.06%   9.55%   8.98%   7.27%   7.15%
Newsletter CG    -1.46%    1.20%  13.06%  10.68%   7.21%   7.65%
coffeehouse      -1.35%   -0.93%   7.51%   7.25%   6.32%   6.84%
STAR             -1.54%   -0.15%   8.08%   7.68%   6.05%   6.36%
LS MG            -1.38%   -0.57%   6.99%   6.53%   5.28%   4.96%
                  
Wellesley        -0.78%    1.28%   6.12%   7.60%   6.97%   6.67%
Newsletter Inc   -0.88%    1.90%  10.32%   9.49%   6.39%   5.67%
LS CG            -1.10%   -0.17%   5.21%   5.29%   4.84%   4.80%
                  
madsinger        -1.53%   -2.77%   6.53%   5.73%   5.55%   
madsinger PP     -0.61%   -2.60%            
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cfs
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

Post by cfs »

Thank you.

Thanks Brad for the monthly report. Tuff year of 2015 in the markets. Wishing everyone a productive 2016.

Thanks again.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

Post by madsinger »

2015 is in the books, and the portfolio returns are mostly flat across the board. Full year returns all within a couple of percentage points of zero. The biggest hit to portfolios were anything gold/energy/natural resources (precious metals fund down over -29%). Also, emerging markets down over -15%.

The madsinger permanent portfolio had three components near zero, and gold down nearly -12%. (cash was the winner this year...who knew?)

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           STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH     GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January   -3.14%    9.37%    0.08%    8.37%   3.40%
February   5.68%   -5.65%    0.08%   -5.79%  -1.43%
March     -1.61%    1.13%    0.08%   -2.22%  -0.67%
April      0.91%   -3.06%    0.08%   -0.09%  -0.50%
May        1.24%   -2.15%    0.09%    0.61%   0.00%
June      -1.97%   -3.72%    0.08%   -1.48%  -1.74%

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July       2.04%    4.22%    0.09%   -6.70%   0.01%
August    -6.07%   -0.71%    0.09%    3.78%  -1.13%
September -2.52%    1.92%    0.08%   -1.82%  -0.66%
October    8.60%   -0.51%    0.09%    1.88%   2.60%
November   0.27%   -0.80%    0.08%   -6.72%  -1.71%
December  -1.63%   -0.34%    0.08%   -0.49%  -0.61%
               
YTD        0.42%   -0.75%    1.01%  -11.80%  -2.60%
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

Post by madsinger »

Looking ahead to 2016, for the "hot hands" idea (best performing diversified fund from previous year), a sorting of the Vanguard funds by asset class shows:

Domestic: US Growth 8.47%
International: International Explorer: 8.60%
Sector: Health Care: 12.65%

I will select one of these. I don't know if my choice will be the "official" choice.

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Per SOP, link to this topic has been added to the wiki, 2015 reports.
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
gkaplan
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

Post by gkaplan »

As of December 31, 2015, my year-to-date return is -2.03%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year rates of return are 8.74%, -2.03%, 4.69%, 4.23%, and 5.06%, respectively.

My best performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Pacific Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares with a year-to-date return of 3.41%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are 30.30%, 3.41%, 5.84%, and 3.51% respectively.

My worst fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of -14.40%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are -1.22%, -14.40%, -6.65, and -4.57%, respectively.

My overall target allocation is 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

10.00%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
10.00%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
14.00%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
14.00%: Foreign Markets Large and Small – Emerging
40.00%: Fixed Income

As of December 31, 2015, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 60/40. Specifically, my current allocations are as follows.

09.94%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VVIAX)
09.94%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSIAX)
05.95%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEUSX)
05.98%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPADX)
13.97%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VFSVX)
14.08%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging (VEMAX)
07.80%: Fixed Income – TIPS (VAIPX)
32.35%: Fixed Income – TSP (G Fund)

(Totals do not add up to 100% because of rounding.)

Submitted for your approval.
Gordon
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

Post by investor »

Thanks Brad.

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