madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

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madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                     CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  September  YTD     since   since   since   since
                    2015     2015    2012    2010    2005    1999
Hot Hands          -2.46%   -6.38%  13.13%  11.59%   6.51%  11.12%
VFINX              -2.49%   -5.38%  14.18%  12.08%   6.46%   4.54%
Sheltered Sam      -2.77%   -7.35%  10.78%   9.43%   6.22%   6.84%
                  
Newsletter G       -2.83%   -3.90%  14.00%  11.21%   7.67%   9.05%
Newsletter G-IND   -3.05%   -4.80%  12.97%  11.51%   7.43%   5.99%
s&d                -1.99%   -4.49%   9.39%   8.32%   6.18%   6.92%
3 fund             -2.47%   -4.67%   9.32%   7.84%   5.92%   5.24%
LS G               -2.52%   -4.77%   9.70%   8.41%   5.29%   4.65%

Code: Select all

Newsletter CG      -2.73%   -3.80%  12.66%  10.43%   7.02%   7.44%
Wellington         -1.35%   -3.83%   9.86%   8.97%   7.01%   7.00%
coffeehouse        -1.08%   -3.43%   8.46%   8.35%   6.21%   6.78%
STAR               -2.11%   -3.50%   9.15%   8.08%   5.99%   6.24%
LS MG              -1.70%   -3.25%   7.94%   7.47%   5.18%   4.86%
                  
Wellesley           0.15%   -1.28%   6.85%   7.98%   6.55%   6.61%
Newsletter Inc     -1.52%   -2.50%  10.06%   9.38%   6.09%   5.48%
LS CG              -0.83%   -1.81%   6.15%   6.22%   4.75%   4.77%
                  
madsinger          -1.66%   -4.38%   7.83%   7.58%   5.84%   
madsinger PP       -0.67%   -2.85%            
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by madsinger »

No big surprises here, if you paid attention to returns in September.

The returns for the madsinger Permanent Portfolio:

Code: Select all

           STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD  PORTFOLIO 
January   -3.14%    9.37%    0.08%   8.37%   3.40%
February   5.68%   -5.65%    0.08%  -5.79%  -1.43%
March     -1.61%    1.13%    0.08%  -2.22%  -0.67%
April      0.91%   -3.06%    0.08%  -0.09%  -0.50%
May        1.24%   -2.15%    0.09%   0.61%   0.00%
June      -1.97%   -3.72%    0.08%  -1.48%  -1.74%
July       2.04%    4.22%    0.09%  -6.70%   0.01%
August    -6.07%   -0.71%    0.09%   3.78%  -1.13%
September -2.52%    1.92%    0.08%  -1.82%  -0.66%
     
YTD       -6.33%    0.98%    0.75%  -6.47%  -2.85%
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by scone »

Thank you, madsinger! I see Wellesley is actually up a tad! :D
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by pkcrafter »

Thanks, the monthly updates are much appreciated. How did you get everything lined up this month?

Paul
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by Dutch »

Ouch! My own portfolio is doing even worse. My continuing contributions to EM (and some precious metals), are not paying off so far.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by madsinger »

pkcrafter wrote:How did you get everything lined up this month?

Paul
Hmmm....I don't understand this question. Can you reword it in another way?

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by pkcrafter »

Well, no wonder you don't understand it, neither do I!

This is the first month that your data was all lined up in nice columns. I assumed you had found a way to get it lined up. Every month before this it's been skewed all over like below:

To show you how they looked before, I went back to find one as an example, but nope, they were all lined up. So, there must have been something odd about my computer image, which isn't there anymore. ? Anyway, thanks again for providing these data all lined up in nice columns. :sharebeer

CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
September YTD since since since since
2015 2015 2012 2010 2005 1999
Hot Hands -2.46% -6.38% 13.13% 11.59% 6.51% 11.12%
VFINX -2.49% -5.38% 14.18% 12.08% 6.46% 4.54%
Sheltered Sam -2.77% -7.35% 10.78% 9.43% 6.22% 6.84%

Newsletter G -2.83% -3.90% 14.00% 11.21% 7.67% 9.05%
Newsletter G-IND -3.05% -4.80% 12.97% 11.51% 7.43% 5.99%
s&d -1.99% -4.49% 9.39% 8.32% 6.18% 6.92%
3 fund -2.47% -4.67% 9.32% 7.84% 5.92% 5.24%
LS G -2.52% -4.77% 9.70% 8.41% 5.29% 4.65%
Last edited by pkcrafter on Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

Added to the BH wiki, see 2015 reports.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by investor »

thanks Brad

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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by modhatter »

Dan Wiener's growth portfolio is primarily all stocks. I think he has something like 3% bonds. I don't think you should be comparing the portfolios that are primarily all stocks with those that have something like a 60/40 split like Coffee House or even Wellington that has about 2/3rds bonds (but with excellent returns)

What is the Newsletter G portfolio or some information about it.?
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by investor »

Wellington is about 2/3 Stocks.
The Newsletter G Portfolio is the Growth portfolio that you mention as having 3% stocks
The Newsletter CG is Conservative Growth contains more bonds and is compared to Wellington.

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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by Earl Lemongrab »

I've been seeing these, and they are quite interesting. One that puzzles me is the "Hot hands". From searching the forum I gather it's the best Vanguard managed fund from last year or something? If so, what is the fund? If not, then what the heck is it?

Earl
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by RYD »

Thank you Madsinger quite interesting to see.

RYD
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by gkaplan »

As of September 30, 2015, my year-to-date return is -4.06%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year rates of return are -23.82%, -3.56%, 5.02%, 5.16%, and 5.05%, respectively.

My best performing fund year-to-date has been the Thrift Savings Plan G Fund with a year-to-date return of 1.51%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are 2.19%, 2.07%, 2.03%, and 2.03% respectively.

My worst fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of -15.08%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, and three-year rates of return are -54.98%, -18.36%, and -4.88%, respectively.

My overall target allocation is 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

10.00%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
10.00%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
14.00%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
14.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging
40.00%: Fixed Income

As of September 30, 2015, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 60/40. Specifically, my current allocations are as follows.

10.10%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VVIAX)
10.05%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSIAX)
06.05%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEUSX)
06.06%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPADX)
14.05%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VFSVX)
14.10%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging (VEMAX)
06.47%: Fixed Income – TIPS (VAIPX)
33.13%: Fixed Income – TSP (G Fund)

(Totals do not add up to 100% because of rounding.)

Submitted for your approval.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by madsinger »

Earl Lemongrab wrote:I've been seeing these, and they are quite interesting. One that puzzles me is the "Hot hands". From searching the forum I gather it's the best Vanguard managed fund from last year or something? If so, what is the fund? If not, then what the heck is it?

Earl
The "Hot Hands" fund is basically as you describe it. Although, as I understand it, it does not have to be a "managed" fund. In past years, the "Hot Hands" fund has been an index fund.

It is included on this chart for "interest", and not a recommended "portfolio". In the past 1, 3, 5 years, it has been slightly beaten out by the S&P 500 index fund. Over the past 10 years (and 9 months), they have basically the same return(with 0.05% annualized). From 1999-2004, the Hot Hands fund did very well, and garnered much enthusiasm and/or backlash. I started tracking it against VFINX going forward a little more than 10 years ago.

I choose to not publicly name the fund for a few reasons. First, it is published in a "for fee" newsletter, and I don't want to give away information that some would see as proprietary. Second, I don't honestly know if I have the "right" fund. I don't subscribe to the newsletter --- I only pick the best performing, "general", stock from from Vanguard at the end of the year. Finally, I am not a "fan" of this approach, and I do not want others to take this as "investing advice", and site these posts as justification.

Finally, if you really want to figure out what this fund is (each year), you can just look at the annual returns for Vanguard funds on their website.

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by modhatter »

investor wrote:Wellington is about 2/3 Stocks.
The Newsletter G Portfolio is the Growth portfolio that you mention as having 3% stocks
The Newsletter CG is Conservative Growth contains more bonds and is compared to Wellington.

investor
Sorry, you are correct on the Wellington. It was late and I was tired. But I believe Hot Hands is Dan Wiener's newsletter. Are you saying that Newsletter G is his Growth Portfolio? When I Google Newsletter G, I get a Federal Employee fund.

When I Google Hot Hands, I get articles about Dan Wiener, and Fidelity having Hot Hands. Then I read it is about just picking last years winner and riding the momentum for another year. Confusing.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by investor »

@Modhatter:
"Sorry, you are correct on the Wellington. It was late and I was tired. But I believe Hot Hands is Dan Wiener's newsletter. Are you saying that Newsletter G is his Growth Portfolio? When I Google Newsletter G, I get a Federal Employee fund."
__________________________________

I am a long time subscriber to the newsletter. There are four portfolios: (all but the last made up low cost managed Vanguard funds)

o Growth
o Conservative Growth
o Income
o Growth Index

You will not find any of them with a google search as they are subscriber only. Also there is a "Hot Hands" fund which is a pick of a momentum fund.

I do not follow any of the portfolios nor am I promoting the newsletter. I do find an excellent amount of information not generally found anywhere else. The newsletter sponsors a great forum. I also do not follow all the preaching of this web site. I use both for information as I do a few other sites.
Madsinger accurately presents the investment results of the four portfolios over the periods listed.

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Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2015)

Post by Earl Lemongrab »

madsinger wrote:I choose to not publicly name the fund for a few reasons.
Ok, thanks.

Earl
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