madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2008 returns, 2008 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 (9 years 3 months, 7 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

New for 2008, I've added the "Hot Hands" fund, and the Newsletter "Growth Index" portfolio. I've also rearranged the columns so the far right is the "longest" time period, and the far left is the shortest.

The madsinger portfolio, my real-money portfolio (slice-n-dice, approximately 66/5/3/26 stock/REIT/PM/bond) is included at the end.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Mar      YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2008     2008    2005    2003    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -0.52%  -15.15%  10.93%  20.55%  14.89%  16.66%
Sheltered Sam     0.05%   -7.06%   8.54%  15.32%   7.83%   8.18%
VFINX            -0.44%   -9.47%   4.56%   9.94%   1.66%   2.36%

s&d               0.37%   -5.41%   7.99%  14.00%   7.74%   8.16%
Newsletter G-IND -1.52%   -9.30%   8.85%  13.50%   6.48%   5.32%
Newsletter G     -1.95%   -9.40%   8.78%  14.20%   6.18%  10.58%
3 fund           -0.43%   -6.98%   7.79%  12.54%   5.29%   5.35%
LS G             -0.48%   -8.22%   6.42%  11.50%   4.32%   4.53%
      
Wellington       -0.34%   -3.92%   7.85%  10.83%   7.28%   7.30%
coffeehouse       0.47%   -2.82%   6.28%  10.88%   7.19%   7.32%
STAR             -1.21%   -6.23%   5.74%   9.90%   5.62%   6.35%
newsletter CG    -1.60%   -8.00%   7.34%  12.24%   5.55%   7.89%
LS MG            -0.30%   -5.94%   6.02%   9.84%   4.77%   4.90%

Wellesley         0.38%   -1.74%   5.63%   6.76%   6.55%   6.33%
LS CG            -0.30%   -3.85%   5.46%   7.98%   4.91%   5.03%
newsletter Inc   -1.25%   -5.20%   4.56%   7.92%   4.85%   4.44%

madsinger        -0.33%   -4.70%   7.81%   
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madsinger
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comments...

Post by madsinger »

Another down month for many, but not all! The REIT fund (VGSIX) was up 6.44% for the month of March. The portfolios holding a healthy slug of this (Sheltered Sam, s&d, coffeehouse) were up for the month.

Precious Metals and Emerging Markets were my biggest drops for the month, both down -3.8%.

The Newsletter portfolios had a tough month compared to others (to a degree that I almost question them). For the first time in years, the Life Strategy Conservative Growth has crawled out of the cellar of it's peers (as sorted by "since 2001" returns).

My portfolio is holding up pretty well, helped out by REITs, Precious Metals, and most notably, a 26% stake in Short Term Bond Index.

Not a great Q1, but I hope we're all comfortable with our AAs and ready to keep going forward!

-Brad.
gkaplan
Posts: 7034
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:34 pm
Location: Portland, Oregon

Post by gkaplan »

As of 03/31/2008, the year-to-date return on my retirement portfolio is
-2.55%. My three-year rate of return is 10.55 %.

My best performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Admiral Shares (5.33%). My rate of return for this fund since its inception (in other words, since I converted from the Investor Shares class) is 7.10%.

My poorest performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Investor Shares (–10.48%). My three-year rate of return for this fund is 30.34. (This fund was my best performing fund last year.)

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

73.09%: Vanguard Roth IRA (YTD Return, -2.95%)
26.91%: Thrift Savings Plan (YTD Return, -1.42%)

My target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 66/34, Equity/Fixed Income. The sixty-six percent equity allocation is split equally between domestic and foreign equity; the foreign equity is split 2:1 between developed and emerging markets. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

11%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
11%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
11%: Domestic REIT
22%: Foreign Developed Markets (Large)
11%: Foreign Emerging Markets (Large)
34%: Fixed Income

As of 03/31/2008, my current retirement portfolio allocation is split 63/37, Equity/Fixed Income.

My Domestic Equity/Foreign Equity/Fixed Income is split 34/29/37.

Specifically, my current allocations (as of 03/31/2008) are as follows.

09.73%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VIVAX)
11.07%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VISVX)
13.28%: Domestic REIT (VGSIX)
17.72%: Foreign Developed Markets – Large (6.73%, TSP I Fund;
10.99%, VDMIX)
11.00%: Foreign Emerging Markets – Large (VEIEX)
37.19%: Fixed Income (20.18%, TSP G Fund; 17.01, Vanguard TIPS
Fund)

(Total allocation does not equal 100% because of rounding.)


Sincere regards,
Last edited by gkaplan on Mon Apr 07, 2008 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Gordon
cdelena
Posts: 288
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2007 3:22 pm

Post by cdelena »

Thanks for the updates, since my S&D has modified my coffeehouse it is nice to have the benchmarks to compare to.
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

Gordon:

That's a pretty interesting allocation you have chosen. Your "small value" has quite a bit of REIT in it as well, so you are quite exposed to that area of the market. I hold a pretty big slug of value as well, but I still have a pretty big chunk of my domestic stocks in Total Market. I guess I'm not quite as committed to the value story as you are. Good luck!

cdelena:

Thanks for posting! I'm glad to hear that this is helpful (or at least amusing) for you.

-Brad.
Puakinekine
Posts: 848
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2007 9:18 pm

Post by Puakinekine »

I just wanted to let you know that I look forward to the "Madsinger Reports" every month. Thank you. There don't seem to be many comments since equities took a dive. I imagine people are not too interested in talking about this years negative returns. It's like looking in a mirror past age 60. But please keep up the good work!
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