What Experts Say About Other Important TopicsAdvisor Perspectives (8-8-2016): "The question is whether any of these (57) tactical allocation mutual funds have shown any ability to outperform a simple, passively managed 60/40 portfolio. The answer, at least for the last five years, is a resounding “no.”
Alliance Bernstein Research: "In 2005 we interviewed more than 500 financial advisors. 83% of the advisors we polled felt that if investors had stuck to their original asset allocation plan prior to 2000, they could have cut their losses by more than half over the following few years."
Frank Armstrong, author and adviser: "Endless tinkering is unlikely to improve performance, and chasing last period's stellar achiever is a losing strategy."
David Babson, co-author of Investing for a Successful Future: "It must be apparent to intelligent investors--if anyone possessed the ability to do so (market time) he would become a billionaire quickly."
Barron's Guide to Making Investment Decisions: "If we haven't said it enough, we'll say it again: Market timing is dangerous."
Bernard Baruch, famed investor: "Only liars manage to always be "out" during bad times and "in' during good times."
Peter Bernstein, author of 10 finance books: "You have to keep reminding yourself. We don't know what's going to happen with anything, ever."
Wm. Bernstein, author and adviser: "There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: Those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know."
Jack Bogle: "After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done market timing successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." "Absolutely no one knows what the stock market is going to do tomorrow, let alone next year. Nor which sector, style or region will lead and which will lag. Given this absolute uncertainty, the most logical strategy is to invest as broadly as possible." "Of 1,028 stock recommendations made by the typical brokerage firm during the first quarter of 2001 (beginning of bear market), only seven were "sell" recommendations."
I started the Boglehead Contest in January 2001. Of 99 Diehard guesses that year, only 11 even guessed the direction of the stock market. Boglehead forecasts were worse in 2008. Only 2 out of 284 Bogleheads guessed how low the S&P 500 Index would plunge.
Bogleheads' Guide to Investing: "No one can predict what the stock market will do or which mutual fund will outperform in the future. This is why we diversify -- so that whatever happens we will not have all our money in losing investments."
Jack Brennan, former Vanguard CEO and author of Straight Talk on Investing: "If you're determined to succeed at investing, make it your first priority to become a buy-and-hold investor."
Warren Buffet: “The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good."
Ben Carlson CPA, author of A Wealth of Common Sense: "Not only is market timing hard, but you incur fees, taxes and market impact costs, as well."
CDA/Wiesenberger: "Market timing is an ineffective strategy for mutual fund investors."
Andrew Clarke, financial adviser: "A successful investor has a good knowledge base, a well-defined investment plan, and nerves of steel to stick with it."
Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal columnist: "Take my word for it. Buy-and-hold is still your best long-run strategy."
Consumer Reports: "Dalbar research has found that both stock and bond investors tend to overreact to events, moving money in and out of mutual funds with breathtakingly bad timing."
Dalbar research (2015) "Mutual fund investors who hold on to their investments have been more successful than those who try to time the market."
Dick Davis, publisher of Dick Davis Digest: "No one can time the market on a consistent basis."
Pat Dorsey, former Morningstar Director of Fund Analysis: "Market-timing is bunk."
David Dreman, author of Contrarian Investment Strategies: "The performance of 185 tactical asset allocation mutual funds was compared with buy-and-hold strategies and equity mutual funds over the years 1985-97. Over this period the S&P 500 Index increased 734%, average equity funds increased 598%, and tactical asset allocation funds increased 384%."
Charles Ellis, author of The Loser's Game: "Market timing is a wicked idea. Don't try it-ever."
Javier Estrada Research: "The odds against successful market timing are just staggering."
Paul Farrell, CBS MarketWatch: "Forget market timing in any form."
Rick Ferri, adviser and co-author of seven books including The Bogleheads' Guide to Retirement Planning: "The best practice for investors is to design a long-term globally diversified asset allocation plan based on present and future financial needs. Then follow that plan religiously, through all markets good and bad."
Forbes: "Benjamin Graham spent much of his career trying to devise a good formula for when to get into--and out of--the stock market. All formulas, he concluded, failed."
Fortune: "Let's say it clearly: No one knows where the market is going-experts or novices, soothsayers or astrologers. That's the simple truth."
Norman Fosback, author, researcher: "Don't sell out of fear or buy out of greed. Just keep making investments, and let the market take its course over the long-term."
John Kenneth Galbraith, economist: "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectful."
Elaine Garzarelli, Wall Street's best known strategist until fired by Lehman Brothers: "I've learned that market timing can ruin you."
Carol Gould, author & New York Times columnist: "For most investors the odds favor a buy-and-hold strategy."
Graham/Campbell Study: "From June 1980 through December 1992, 94.5% of 237 market timing investment newsletters had gone of business."
Benjamin Graham, famed investor: "If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting what's going to happen to the stock market."
Louis S. Harvey, President of Dalbar Research: “When investors think short-term and try to time the market, they haven’t done very well. They have been leaving a lot of money on the table.”
Mark Hebner, financial author: "Efficient markets have no trends, so any speculation using trading systems or active investment strategies, such as stock, time, manager, or style selection, will only detract from future market returns."
Chuck Hill, Director of Research at FirstCall/Thomson Financial: "At the peak of the bull market in March of 2000 only 0.7% of all recommendations on stocks issued by Wall Street brokerages and investment banks were to sell."
Morgan Housel, Wall Street Journal and Motley Fool columnist: "The odds that you will achieve long-term success by actively trading or timing the market round to zero."
Mark Hulbert, Editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest (1-18-2001): "Among the 160 or so newsletters the HFD monitors, the market timing recommendations of only 10 have beaten the stock market over the last decade on a risk-adjusted basis."
Abigail Johnson, Chairman of Fidelity Investments: "It's impossible to predict the direction of the markets."
Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate: "After receiving the Nobel Prize, Daniel Kahneman, was asked by a CNBC anchorman what investment tips he had for viewers. His answer: "Buy and hold.""
Michael Leboeuf, author of The Millionaire in You : "Timing the market is for losers. Time IN the market will get you to the winner's circle, and you'll sleep better at night."
Arthur Levitt, former SEC Chairman: "No one is smart enough to time the market's ups and downs."
Jessie Livermore, famous investor: "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."
Peter Lynch, famed mutual fund manager: "Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy or the stock market."
Burton Malkiel, author of the classic Random Walk Down Wall Street: "Buying-and-holding a broad-based market index fund is still the only game in town."
John Markese, PhD, President, American Association of Independent Investors: "Nobody, but nobody, has consistently guessed the direction of the bond or stock market over any meaningful length of time."
Paul Merriman, author of Investing for a lifetime: "I don’t think more than perhaps one in 100 investors will be successful using timing."
Morningstar Course 106: "We're not keen on market-timing. It just doesn't work."
Motley Fools: "We've yet to find anyone who can accurately and consistently predict the market's short-term moves."
Nick Murray, author of eleven financial books: "Timing the market is a fool's game, whereas time in the market is your greatest natural advantage."
"Odean and Barber tested over 66,400 investors between 1991 and 1997. Their findings: "The most active traders earned 7% less annually than buy-and-hold investors."
Gerald Perritt, financial author: "Forget trying to time the market and do something productive instead."
Don Phillips, Managing Director of Morningstar: "I can't point to any mutual fund anywhere in the world that's produced a superior long-term record using market timing as its main investment criteria."
Mike Piper, author of The Oblivious Investor: "When market-beating strategies become known they generally stop working."
Jane Bryant Quinn author and syndicated columnist: "The market timer's Hall of Fame is an empty room."
John Rekenthaler, Vice-President of Research for Morningstar: "Market-timers are circus clowns minus the funny suits. Even when they dodge the bear market, they inevitably miss the ensuing bull. Their track record is terrible."
Mary Roland, author of Best Practices for Financial Advisors: "Countless studies have proved that no one is able to time the market effectively."
Allan Roth, author of "How A Second Grader Beats Wall Street" and advisor: "I charge people $450 an hour to tell them that I don't know the future."
Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters: "There are no geniuses on Wall Street, only geniuses for a while."
Paul Samuelson, Nobel Laureate: "The evidence is overwhelming that a thousand timer's who try to buy when stocks are low, and sell when they are high, is a damnably awful record."
Jim Schmidt, Editor: "For the 10 years that ended 12-31-2000, only one newsletter out of the 112 that Timers Digest follows managed to beat the S&P 500 Benchmark."
Bill Schultheis, adviser and author of The Coffeehouse Investor : "I have learned the hard way that market timing and trying to pick a fund that will out-perform the market are both losing strategies."
Charles Schwab: "I'm a strong advocate of buying and holding."
Fred Schwed Jr., author of 'Where are the Customers' Yachts?: "It turns out that I should have just bought them (securities), and thereafter I should have just sat on them like a fat, stupid peasant. A peasant however, who is rich beyond his limited dreams of avarice."
Chandan Sengupta author of The Only Proven Road to Investment Success: "Any investment method that relies on predicting the future is doomed to fail."
Jeremy Siegel, author of Stocks for the Long Run: "Winning with stocks requires only patience, not foresight."
W. Scott Simon, author of Index Funds: "Investors should look with a jaundiced eye at any market timing system being peddled by its guru-creator."
George Sisti, CFP, editor of Vectors: "Market timing is the pursuit of an illusion, a modern-day equivalent of alchemy."
Paul Singer, hedge fund billionaire: “The important turning points in markets are never identified with precision in advance by ‘experts’ and policymakers."
James Stewart, Smart Money columnist": It's my belief that it's a waste of time to try to time any market decline, or try to pinpoint a market bottom."
Larry Swedroe, author and adviser: "Believing in the ability of market timers is the equivalent of believing astrologers can predict the future."
David Swensen, Manager of Yale Investments: "People should stop chasing performance and just put together a sensible portfolio regardless of the ups and downs of the market."
John Templeton, fund manager: "In all my 55 years on Wall Street, before I retired to do something vastly more important, I was never able to say when the market would go up or down. Nor was I able to find anybody on Earth whose opinion I would value on the subject of when it would go up and down."
Andrew Tobias, author of The Only Investment Guide You Will Ever Need: "Don't waste money subscribing to investment letters or expensive services."
Tweddell & Pierce, financial authors: "Trust in time and forget market timing. Allow time to work its compounding magic for you. Let market timing inflict its miseries on someone else."
Eric Tyson, author of Mutual Funds for Dummies: "No one can predict the future."
Wall Street Journal Lifetime Guide to Money: "Few if any investors manage to be consistently successful in timing markets."
John Waggoner, USA Today financial columnist: "If you're considering doing your own market timing, the best advice is this: Don't."
Jason Zweig, author and Wall Street Journal columnist: "If you buy, and then hold a total-stock-market index fund, it is mathematically certain that you will outperform the vast majority of all other investors in the long run."