madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsinger PP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my whole portfolio. It is roughly 25% each of S&P 500, Long Bond, Stable Value and Gold (IAU).

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR     CAGR     CAGR    CAGR
                   Dec     YTD     since    since    since   since
                   2014    2014    2012     2010     2005    1999
Hot Hands          1.15%   3.91%   19.27%   14.95%   7.05%  12.13%
VFINX             -0.26%  13.51%   20.22%   15.28%   6.90%   5.12%
Sheltered Sam     -0.29%   9.55%   16.58%   12.63%   6.86%   7.69%

Newsletter G      -0.09%  10.90%   19.37%   13.90%   7.94%   9.77%
Newsletter G-IND   0.18%  10.60%   18.39%   14.47%   7.80%   6.61%
s&d               -0.32%   7.39%   13.59%   10.64%   6.53%   7.56%
3 fund            -1.00%   6.10%   13.58%   10.11%   6.29%   5.81%
LS G              -0.82%   7.18%   14.11%   10.81%   5.68%   5.20%

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Newsletter CG     -0.36%  10.80%   17.57%   12.95%   7.29%   8.06%
Wellington        -0.25%   9.82%   13.94%   11.25%   7.28%   7.61%
coffeehouse        0.23%   9.33%   11.98%   10.43%   6.45%   7.35%
STAR              -0.87%   7.35%   12.90%   10.13%   6.24%   6.78%
LS MG             -0.55%   7.07%   11.24%    9.36%   5.41%   5.31%
                  
Wellesley         -0.12%   8.07%    9.10%    9.52%   6.58%   7.01%
Newsletter Inc    -0.36%  11.10%   13.68%   11.42%   6.24%   5.91%
LS CG             -0.31%   6.95%    8.40%    7.57%   4.85%   5.12%
                  
madsinger          0.43%   5.89%   11.53%    9.74%   6.19%   
madsinger PP       0.89%               
Last edited by madsinger on Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by madsinger »

For December, large cap US was down a little, small caps up in the 1-2% range. Internationals got hit pretty hard down -2.5% to -5%. REITs were up almost 2%.

For 2014, large US was the place to be: S&P 500 up about 13.5%. Small caps ranged from 5% to 10% as we move from Growth to Value. Internationals ranged from basically flat for EM, to down -6.7% for Europe. REITs blew the doors off the place up over +30%! Precious Metal fund down about -11.4%.

Bonds had a pretty good year (total bond up 5.76%, and Long bonds up big, up over 25%).

Wellington and Wellesley continue to reward those active-fund heathens ;-)
Last edited by madsinger on Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
livesoft
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by livesoft »

Very cool that LifeStrategy Conservative Growth, Moderate Growth, and Growth all performed about the same for the year.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by madsinger »

For those who may be interested, my "permanent portfolio" has been interesting for me to watch. Here's the "raw" data:

Code: Select all

              STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH     GOLD       PP
April (16-30) 1.18%   -0.12%    0.06%   -1.03%     0.01%
May           2.32%    2.82%    0.07%   -3.04%     0.54%
June          2.02%   -0.23%    0.06%    6.27%     1.98%
July         -1.43%    0.60%    0.08%   -3.57%    -1.09%
August        3.94%    4.24%    0.08%    0.32%     2.20%
September    -1.44%   -1.98%    0.07%   -6.10%    -2.32%
October       2.46%    2.62%    0.08%   -2.99%     0.69%
November      2.66%    2.87%    0.07%   -0.53%     1.40%
December     -0.29%    2.57%    0.07%    1.33%     0.89%

4/16 - 12/31 11.72%   14.05%    0.64%   -9.42%     4.31%
Unfortunately for my timing, GOLD dropped pretty hard since I bought it --- however, long bonds were up 14% from mid-April to the end of the year. S&P 500 also did will up almost 12% during that time. These were my two "new" purchases at that time.

So, what do I think about it? I'd say it behaved just as I "expected" --- some up, some down, and an "evened out" ride along the way. I'm happy with what I've seen, and will "stay the course".
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by madsinger »

livesoft wrote:Very cool that LifeStrategy Conservative Growth, Moderate Growth, and Growth all performed about the same for the year.
And when you go back a full 16 years, the G, MG, and CG annualized returns are: 5.20%, 5.31%, 5.12%!
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by livesoft »

Who said the ratio of stocks to bonds was one of the most important asset allocation decisions that one can make? :twisted:
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Eastwest
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by Eastwest »

Thanks for this, Brad.
Wellington continues to impress.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by investor »

yes, Wellington, excellent candidate for one stop retirement investing.

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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by gkaplan »

As of December 31, 2014, my year-to-date return is 3.32%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year rates of return are 1.99%, 3.32%, 9.39%, 7.60%, and 6.22%, respectively.

My best performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Value Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of 13.34%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, and three-year, and five-year rates of return are 20.01%, 13.34%, 20.29%, and 15.04%, respectively.

My worst fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return -5.04%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, and three-year rates of return are -16.84%, 5.04%, and 13.34%, respectively.

My overall target allocation is 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

12.00%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
12.00%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
12.00%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
12.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging
40.00%: Fixed Income

As of December 31, 2014, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 60/40. Specifically, my current allocations are as follows.

11.88%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VVIAX)
14.22%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSIAX)
05.99%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEUSX)
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPADX)
09.71%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VFSVX)
12.04%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging (VEMAX)
08.27%: Fixed Income – TIPS (VAIPX)
31.90%: Fixed Income – TSP (G Fund)

(Totals do not add up to 100% because of rounding.)

Submitted for your approval.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by madsinger »

Charts are updated with all portfolio information.

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by investor »

Thanks Brad

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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Post by ogd »

madsinger wrote:
livesoft wrote:Very cool that LifeStrategy Conservative Growth, Moderate Growth, and Growth all performed about the same for the year.
And when you go back a full 16 years, the G, MG, and CG annualized returns are: 5.20%, 5.31%, 5.12%!
Unfortunately, the LifeStrategy funds were not the same funds they are now. Nor were they recommended much around here. The problem was the market-timing Asset Allocation Fund, which turned out to be a terrible idea.

I regard performance numbers for LifeStrategy before fall 2011 as unreliable / meaningless, much more so than the usual "past performance is no guarantee". They really were different funds. I'd say this even warrants a star / footnote in your reports, given their current (and better deserved) popularity.
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