madsinger monthly report (September 2014)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2011 (15 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR     CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   Sep     YTD     since    since   since   since
                   2014    2014    2011     2009    2004    1999
Hot Hands         -4.18%  -2.46%  12.73%   15.53%   9.30%  11.88%
Sheltered Sam     -3.81%   5.32%  10.93%   15.37%   8.28%   7.55%
VFINX             -1.42%   8.21%  15.01%   16.91%   7.55%   4.88%
                  
Newsletter G      -2.40%   5.70%  13.33%   16.91%   9.06%   9.59%
Newsletter G-IND  -2.88%   4.70%  12.71%   17.10%   8.79%   6.35%
s&d               -3.62%   4.12%   9.03%   13.20%   7.95%   7.47%
3 fund            -2.71%   4.21%   9.49%   12.93%   7.46%   5.79%
LS G              -2.51%   4.74%   9.78%   13.21%   6.71%   5.13%

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Newsletter CG     -2.21%   6.00%  12.79%   15.33%   8.19%   7.89%
Wellington        -1.36%   6.48%  11.21%   13.00%   8.15%   7.52%
coffeehouse       -2.82%   4.89%   8.85%   11.76%   7.43%   7.19%
STAR              -1.97%   4.92%   9.74%   12.58%   7.20%   6.73%
LS MG             -2.04%   4.69%   8.32%   11.19%   6.27%   5.25%
                  
Wellesley         -1.25%   5.60%   9.20%   10.61%   7.18%   6.97%
Newsletter Inc    -1.11%   6.90%  11.13%   12.95%   6.76%   5.74%
LS CG             -1.51%   4.70%   6.56%    9.11%   5.48%   5.06%
                  
madsinger         -3.15%   2.54%   7.59%   12.38%      
madsinger PP      -2.32%               

[madsinger]

Down month. Not many places to hide.

US Large Cap had a relatively "normal" drop of -1.42% (S&P 500 fund). Small caps were down in the -5% to -6% range. Internationals were down -4% to -5% for "developed" countries, over -7% for emerging stocks. REITS down about -6%. Precious Metals fund down over -13%! Total Bond fund down -0.73%.

My four funds of my PP were S&P 500, down -1.44%, Long Bond down -1.98%, gold down -6.10%, stable value up +0.07 resulting in a -2.32% drop for the month.

For anyone interested in past reports, here's a link to the wiki page:

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Madsinge ... ly_reports

-Brad.

[gkaplan]

As of September 30, 2014, my year-to-date return is 2.79%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year rates of return are -9.08%, 7.11%, 11.32%, 8.28%, and 7.06%, respectively.

My best performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Value Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of 8.42%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are 3.24%, 20.66%, 23.17%, and 15.00%, respectively.

My worst fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return -0.93%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, and three-year rates of return are -26.04%, 7.54%, and 16.85%, respectively.

Target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

13.50%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
13.50%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
05.50%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
05.50%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
11.00%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
11.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging
40.00%: Fixed Income

As of September 30, 2014, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 60/40. Specifically, my current allocations are as follows.

13.66%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VVIAX)
13.09%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSIAX)
05.02%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEUSX)
05.21%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPADX)
11.15%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VFSVX)
10.79%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging (VEMAX)
08.38%: Fixed Income – TIPS (VAIPX)
32.70%: Fixed Income – TSP (G Fund)

Submitted for your approval.

[cfs]

Thanks.

Thanks for the report, I look forward to reading this report every month. On my side of the keyboard, overall an up quarter with a weak month in July, a good month in August, and again a weak month in September. I will check the overall portfolio growth in 2014 at the end of December 2014.

[investor]

Thanks Brad.

I have Wellington as 6.52% YTD from Morningstar... Whatever the fund continues to do well. Just like the energizer rabbit.

investor

[madsinger]

Thanks Brad.

I have Wellington as 6.52% YTD from Morningstar... Whatever the fund continues to do well. Just like the energizer rabbit.

investor

hmmmm...I got the 6.48% YTD for Wellington off of Vanguard's website. I just re-checked now, and it still says 6.48%. I don't know why there's a discrepancy.

According to Vanguard's distribution page for Wellington this year:

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March 27       $0.243 at $38.38 increase in shares of 0.6331%
June 19        $0.234 at $39.92 increase in shares of 0.5862%
September 18   $0.242 at $40.23 increase in shares of 0.6015%

for a total increase in the number of shares of 1.8319%.

NAV on 12/31/2013 is 37.94, and 9/30/2014 is 39.67

The account value should be (39.67/37.94)*(1.018319) = 1.064753, or a gain of 6.4753%, which we round to 6.48%.

So, assuming these distributions are correct, I'd go with Vanguard for the return.

-Brad.

[madsinger]

I've had a couple of people send me a message about my "math" of the previous post. As I look at it, it's somewhat incomplete. Here's a hopefully better explanation.

When a fund makes a distribution, and it is reinvested in the fund that day, the result is "more shares" in your account --- you are taking the distribution, and buying more shares at that day's NAV.

To use the example above, on March 27, the Wellington Fund had a distribution of $0.243 per share, and the closing NAV that day was $38.38.

So, we owned 1000 shares of Wellington on the day of the distribution, at $0.243 per share, we received a cash distribution of $243.00. Now, if we turn around and invest those $243.00 in the fund that day (re-investment), and the NAV that day was $38.38, we have purchased:

$243.00 / $38.38 = 6.331 shares.

We now have 1006.331 shares of Weillington at $38.38 per share.

On June 19, there is a distribution of $0.234 per share, and the NAV is $39.92. Remember, we now have 1006.331 shares, so the case amount of the distribution is:

$0.234 * 1006.331 = $235.48, and if we purchase new shares, we buy

$235.48 / $39.92 = 5.899 shares. Adding this to our 1006.331 shares, we now have 1012.230 shares.

Repeating for the Sept 18 distribution of $0.242 at $40.23:

$0.242 * 1012.230 = $244.96, $244.96 / $40.23 = 6.089 shares, adding to our stash makes: 1018.319 shares.

This is the increase in number of shares by 1.8319%. It is the "product" of the percent increase of the three distributions.

To get the total return for the YTD, we started with 1000 shares with an NAV of $37.94 on 12/31/2013 ( $37,940.00 ) and on Sept 30 we had 1018.319 shares at $39.67 per share ( $40,396.71 ). So, our YTD gain is:

$40,396.71 / $37,940.00 - 1 = 1.06475 - 1 = 0.06475, or 6.475% (round to 6.48%)

I hope this is more clear!

-Brad.

[investor]

Brad I got the Wellington return from Morningstar premium service on the morning of October 01. Not much of a difference 6.48 vs 6.52. I also get a value of 5.68 % YTD for Wellesley.

investor