madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2008 returns, 2008 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 (9 years 2 months, 7 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

New for 2008, I've added the "Hot Hands" fund, and the Newsletter "Growth Index" portfolio. I've also rearranged the columns so the far right is the "longest" time period, and the far left is the shortest.

The madsinger portfolio, my real-money portfolio (slice-n-dice, approximately 66/5/3/26 stock/REIT/PM/bond) is included at the end.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Feb      YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2008     2008    2005    2003    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -3.02%  -14.71%  11.41%  21.04%  15.16%  16.89%
Sheltered Sam    -2.30%   -7.11%   8.76%  15.57%   7.92%   8.25%
VFINX            -3.25%   -9.07%   4.83%  10.21%   1.74%   2.43%

s&d              -1.54%   -5.76%   8.09%  14.16%   7.77%   8.20%
Newsletter G-IND -1.07%   -7.90%   9.62%  14.07%   6.79%   5.55%
Newsletter G     -1.18%   -7.60%   9.70%  14.88%   6.55%  10.92%
3 fund           -1.38%   -6.58%   8.15%  12.85%   5.41%   5.45%
LS G             -2.33%   -7.78%   6.76%  11.80%   4.44%   4.63%
      
Wellington       -0.76%   -3.59%   8.18%  11.09%   7.42%   7.41%
coffeehouse      -1.42%   -3.27%   6.29%  10.96%   7.21%   7.33%
STAR             -1.44%   -5.08%   6.30%  10.33%   5.87%   6.55%
newsletter CG    -1.37%   -6.50%   8.09%  12.80%   5.85%   8.15%
LS MG            -1.82%   -5.66%   6.29%  10.07%   4.87%   4.98%

Wellesley        -1.30%   -2.11%   5.66%   6.79%   6.57%   6.34%
newsletter Inc   -0.93%   -4.00%   5.10%   8.32%   5.09%   4.63%
LS CG            -1.31%   -3.56%   5.71%   8.18%   5.01%   5.11%
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

Sorry for the late post. I haven't computed the madsinger portfolio for February yet. When I get to it, I will update the chart (or, just add another post).

February looked pretty good until the last two days! Two down months in a row to start 2008 (and now four down in a row, going back to 2007). Is this going to be a long slow grind down? Are we just about done? Due for a big rise? Since I have no idea, I'm staying the course and rebalancing as necessary. Last month, I rebalanced out of some bond fund and another ingot of precious metals and put money into small value.

I hope you're all doing well!

-Brad.
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etc06
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Appreciated...

Post by etc06 »

Thanks for posting the updated numbers.
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Random Musings
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Post by Random Musings »

The madsinger portfolio, my real-money portfolio (slice-n-dice, approximately 66/5/3/26 stock/REIT/PM/bond) is included at the end.
That's one transparent portfolio :wink:

RM
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

I finally got around to updating my February numbers. I was positive for the month, up until the last day! Why did we have to have a Feb 29th this year! ;-)

I was down -0.90% for the month, and YTD -4.38%. A healthy slug of Precious Metals (up 12% for the month) and short term bonds kept the losses of the madsinger portfolio under 1% for the month.

Up until this morning, March was down about -3.5%, and down about -7.5% YTD. Let's see what today brings!

The less (or would it be more?) transparent return for madsinger is included below.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Feb      YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2008     2008    2005    2003    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -3.02%  -14.71%  11.41%  21.04%  15.16%  16.89%
Sheltered Sam    -2.30%   -7.11%   8.76%  15.57%   7.92%   8.25%
VFINX            -3.25%   -9.07%   4.83%  10.21%   1.74%   2.43%
 
s&d              -1.54%   -5.76%   8.09%  14.16%   7.77%   8.20%
Newsletter G-IND -1.07%   -7.90%   9.62%  14.07%   6.79%   5.55%
Newsletter G     -1.18%   -7.60%   9.70%  14.88%   6.55%  10.92%
3 fund           -1.38%   -6.58%   8.15%  12.85%   5.41%   5.45%
LS G             -2.33%   -7.78%   6.76%  11.80%   4.44%   4.63%
      
Wellington       -0.76%   -3.59%   8.18%  11.09%   7.42%   7.41%
coffeehouse      -1.42%   -3.27%   6.29%  10.96%   7.21%   7.33%
STAR             -1.44%   -5.08%   6.30%  10.33%   5.87%   6.55%
newsletter CG    -1.37%   -6.50%   8.09%  12.80%   5.85%   8.15%
LS MG            -1.82%   -5.66%   6.29%  10.07%   4.87%   4.98%
 
Wellesley        -1.30%   -2.11%   5.66%   6.79%   6.57%   6.34%
newsletter Inc   -0.93%   -4.00%   5.10%   8.32%   5.09%   4.63%
LS CG            -1.31%   -3.56%   5.71%   8.18%   5.01%   5.11%

madsinger        -0.90%   -4.38%   8.14%
knhifin
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Post by knhifin »

madsinger, is the HOT HANDS fund in your table the HOT HANDS ETF? Could you provide some more info on this? Thanks!
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Post by madsinger »

knhifin wrote:madsinger, is the HOT HANDS fund in your table the HOT HANDS ETF? Could you provide some more info on this? Thanks!
Hi knhifin,

The hot hands fund is the mutual fund selected by a newsletter (all right...it's Dan Wiener's Newsletter...) each year. The "long term" information on the chart tracks the return if one switched to the Hot Hands fund for the year and held it for the year.

This year, the Hot Hands funds (as I was told) is VGEQX, Vanguard's Growth Equity Fund. It's YTD return (through today) is -14.86%, which has the distinction of being Vanguard's worst performing fund year to date. However, the "method" is to hold on until Decemeber 31, so things may change!

For the four years before this year, VINEX, Vanguard's International Explorer was the Hot Hands fund, and (as proven by being selected four years in a row), investors who chose to follow this "approach" were handsomely rewarded.

-Brad.
knhifin
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Post by knhifin »

Thanks, Brad. I found Weiner's hot hands' 16.89 CAGR since 1999 simply amazing!
ilan1h
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Post by ilan1h »

I wonder what these returns would be like on a tax adjusted basis? For example, Wellington and Wellesley have done quite well but would have sustained a tax hit. One could simulate wellington with TSM and/or LV in taxable and park the bonds in tax advantaged. Or one could have TSM and munis in taxable and park SV in tax advantaged. A strategy like that would probably have returns in line with or exceeding those of the balanced portfolios.
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