madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2013 returns, 2013 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2011 (15 years 0 months, 10 years 0 months, 5 years 0 months, 3 years 0 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 59/5/3/33 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                     CAGR     CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                    Dec     YTD      since    since   since   since
                    2013    2013     2011     2009    2004    1999
Hot Hands          2.53%   43.86%   17.13%   18.65%  10.31%  12.70%
Sheltered Sam      1.96%   24.56%   11.89%   16.66%   8.36%   7.57%
VFINX              2.52%   32.18%   16.00%   17.81%   7.29%   4.58%
                  
Newsletter G       2.44%   34.20%   14.79%   18.37%   9.16%   9.69%
Newsletter G-IND   2.43%   30.70%   14.37%   18.81%   8.98%   6.35%
s&d                1.47%   18.96%    9.93%   14.40%   8.13%   7.57%
3 fund             1.69%   20.74%   10.47%   14.06%   7.60%   5.79%
LS G               1.66%   21.20%   10.65%   14.27%   6.74%   5.07%

Code: Select all

Newsletter CG      1.26%   28.90%   14.00%   16.46%   8.20%   7.88%
Wellington         1.47%   19.66%   11.84%   13.65%   8.10%   7.46%
coffeehouse        1.07%   14.74%    9.42%   12.56%   7.49%   7.22%
STAR               1.35%   17.80%   10.54%   13.50%   7.25%   6.74%
LS MG              1.07%   15.04%    8.83%   11.94%   6.27%   5.20%
                  
Wellesley          0.81%    9.19%    9.63%   11.08%   7.15%   6.94%
Newsletter Inc     1.19%   18.60%   11.60%   13.50%   6.57%   5.57%
LS CG              0.50%    9.08%    6.62%    9.54%   5.42%   5.00%
                  
madsinger          1.25%   17.42%    8.67%   13.79%      
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cfs
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by cfs »

Thanks, outstanding work, I look forward to reading your reports.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by madsinger »

Happy 2014!

Or, perhaps, I should say Happy 2013! Big US stock returns (30+%) this past year were very good for the portfolios.

International stock were not as good, mostly due to the negative return of Emerging Markets.

Bonds were mostly negative. REITs returned about 3%, and precious metals fund was down about -35%.

Pretty much, you can see what the portfolios held by their returns.

2013 Hot Hand fund was indeed a hot hand...Capital Value returning 43.86%, and was Vanguard's second highest return fund for 2013. A quick scan of the Vanguard list shows that Vanguard Explorer returned 44.36% for 2013, and becomes 2014's "Hot Hand" (by my observation, and this will be the fund I'm tracking for 2014's Hot Hand).

Note: I do not employ the "Hot Hand" fund myself...I follow it as a curiosity.

I hope you all had a happy and prosperous 2013, and I wish you all the best in 2014!

-Brad.
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jmndu99
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by jmndu99 »

Brad, Thank you.

I was looking forward to your report!


Jim
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by White Coat Investor »

I can pride myself in beating Madsinger, but still lost out to the 3 fund and just about anything Dan Wiener could come up with. What a year he had! I almost got beat by his income fund.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by investor »

Thanks Brad;

Pleased to see Wellington just keeps on ticking along. Have held that fund a great many years.

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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by Robert T »

.
Thanks Brad,

Very strong performance for US tilted portfolios. If I understand, this is what helped the Wiener ports this year.

FWIW - Here’s the annual update on the performance of the portfolios from the ’Who’s the Fairest’ thread. Details of each portfolio are in this M* link. All are expected to have an average stock:bond allocation of about 75:25 over the long-term.
  • Within the Asset Allocation portfolios the ETF and DFA TM portfolios have similar expected long-term return, as do the RAFI and DFA Vector/Core portfolios (DFA portfolios have slightly higher expected return if account for higher betas, and may now have added quality screens).

    Within Security Selection the portfolios range from highly concentrated (6 to 11 stock in the Cummings-Ackman-Lampert and Fairholme portfolio respectively), to more diversified (100 to 500 in the D&C, IVA, and multiple managers portfolio). The Cummings-Ackman-Lampert portfolio is turning out to be difficult to track, as the approach of one of the managers – Cummings – seems to buy stocks for eventual acquisition of the company, and once aquired all historical return information of that company is removed from the M* (and from this portfolio) - an example is the Jefferies Group.

    Within the Market Timing portfolio – various marketing timing strategies extensively discusses – moving, average, inverted yield curve, forecasts, momentum.
Relatively strong performance across the board – with the Permanent Portfolio being the exception. The GMO portfolio also lagged (high allocation to EM). We have 5-year annualized return numbers now for some of the portfolios. In general, so far, there are no standouts in security selection and market timing - although Dodge and Cox have been fairly consistent, with good performance so far. The ETF and DFA TM portfolios had the same annualized return (14.6%) since inception on 11-06-08.
  • Image
    *Since inception of the M* portfolios.
FWIW - my portfolio is similar to the ETF portfolio - about 20% return in 2013. 11 years with same portfolio factor loads and intl. allocation targets, no reason to change these now - annualized return over 11 years = 11%.

Best,

Robert
.
Scooter57
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by Scooter57 »

Thanks for tracking these results. After analyzing your posts and reading the independent study that confirmed Dan's claims to outperform I subscribed to his newsletter last spring.

After due diligence and some detailed fundamental analysis of the specific holdings of the funds he recommends (after several months of studying valuation)I started averaging into several of those funds. The results have been excellent and M* confirms that I did far better than the index return all year long. I particularly like the emphasis on valuation in his chosen funds.

The negativity towards Wiener displayed by many posters on this forum seems indefensible given his long term track record. You could do a lot worse than follow his guidance. Over the 8 months I've subscribed he has made only one sell recommendation which was to sell a bond fund I had already sold the previous week.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by madsinger »

Scooter57 wrote:The negativity towards Wiener displayed by many posters on this forum seems indefensible given his long term track record. You could do a lot worse than follow his guidance.
Hi Scooter57,

While I have never subscribed nor even read any of the Wiener newsletters, I agree with your statement that many investors could (and do) a lot worse than follow his guidance. Whether I believe he will outperform a fixed allocation of index funds or not is not really important to me. If otherwise scared investors can be encouraged to buy and hold some low cost, low turnover funds and occasionally sell one to buy another, then I think there is some value there.

Although it was never my intention to "encourage" anyone to subscribe, I am glad you are happy and that this has worked out well for you.

Best,
Brad.
Levett
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by Levett »

Brad,

Would that more folks would emulate your generosity of spirit, as well as your honesty.

Although I've never been a follower of Mr. Wiener, I am puzzled by why he commands such (negative) attention from a good many posters.

Thanks for your continuing updates, and Happy 2014.

Lev
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by bschultheis »

Thanks Brad

Go Coffeehouse!

(and remember to stay on top of that personal inflation rate.) :D
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by gkaplan »

As of December 31, 2013, my year-to-date return is 12.63%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of returns are 17.20%, 12.63%, 6.58%, and 11.65%, respectively.

My best performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of 35.72%. My annualized quarterly and one-year rates of return are 45.61% and 35.72%, respectively.

My worst fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return –4.72%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, and three-year rates of return are 6.21%, -4.72%, and –2.19%, respectively.

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

69.79%: Vanguard Roth IRA (My year-to-date return is 17.84%. My annualized
quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return follow: 24.48%, .17.84%, 8.63%, and 15.84%, respectively.

30.21%: Thrift Savings Plan (My year-to-date return is 1.90%. My annualized
quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return follow: 2.24%, 1.90%, 1.91%, and 2.68%, respectively.

Target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

13.50%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
13.50%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
05.50%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
05.50%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
11.00%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
11.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging
40.00%: Fixed Income

As of December 31, 2013, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 62/38. Specifically, my current allocations are as follows.

14.22%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VVIAX)
14.72%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSIAX)
05.83%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEUSX)
06.10%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPADX)
10.51%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VFSVX)
10.92%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging (VEMAX)
07.49%: Fixed Income – TIPS (VAIPX)
30.21%: Fixed Income – TSP (G Fund)

(Totals do add to 100% despite rounding.)

Submitted for your approval.
Gordon
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2013)

Post by White Coat Investor »

gkaplan wrote:
Submitted for your approval.
I approve
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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