madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2008 returns, total return since Jan 2007, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 (9 years 1 month, 7 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001.

The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

New for 2008, I've added the "Hot Hands" fund, and the Newsletter "Growth Index" portfolio. I've also rearranged the columns so the far right is the "longest" time period, and the far left is the shortest.

The madsinger portfolio, my real-money portfolio (slice-n-dice, approximately 66/5/3/26 stock/REIT/PM/bond) is included at the end.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                           return  CAGR    CAGR   CAGR    CAGR
                   Jan     since   since   since  since   since
                   2008    2007    2005    2003   2001    1999
Hot Hands        -12.05%  -7.52%  12.86%  22.15% 15.85%  17.45%
Sheltered Sam     -4.92%  -1.78%   9.83%  16.38%  8.37%   8.61%
VFINX             -6.02%  -0.95%   6.09%  11.10%  2.24%   2.82%

s&d               -4.29%  -0.62%   8.86%  14.75%  8.11%   8.46%
Newsletter GIndex -6.90%   3.99%  10.28%  14.56%  7.03%   5.73%
Newsletter G      -6.50%   2.85%  10.40%  15.41%  6.80%  11.17%
3 fund            -5.27%   3.06%   8.87%  13.39%  5.69%   5.66%
LS G              -5.58%   1.46%   7.77%  12.53%  4.84%   4.95%
      
Wellington        -2.85%   5.25%   8.68%  11.45%  7.63%   7.57%
coffeehouse       -1.89%   0.97%   6.96%  11.46%  7.51%   7.57%
STAR              -3.69%   2.65%   6.98%  10.82%  6.16%   6.78%
newsletter CG     -5.20%   2.95%   8.80%  13.33%  6.13%   8.40%
LS MG             -3.91%   3.16%   7.10%  10.64%  5.20%   5.24%

Wellesley         -0.82%   4.74%   6.27%   7.18%  6.85%   6.56%
newsletter Inc    -3.10%   0.58%   5.56%   8.66%  5.29%   4.78%
LS CG             -2.28%   4.55%   6.32%   8.60%  5.26%   5.31%

madsinger         -3.51%   1.58%   8.68%
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madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

...as expected...

Post by madsinger »

....as expected, the portfolios all got popped in January. The more bonds that were held, the better the portfolio held up.

The month I start to track the Hot Hands is probably its worst month in history! The HH fund was the worst performing Vanguard fund in January. To defend the "author", even though it was the HH fund, he wasn't recommending it!

REITs and PM held up quite well by month's end, and bonds boosted returns for the madsinger portfolio.

I hope you all were comfortable with your asset allocation in January. It was a month to help test your risk tolerance. Only mildly test it though...it can get a lot worse than this!

-Brad.
Puakinekine
Posts: 848
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2007 9:18 pm

Post by Puakinekine »

This is the first, and hopefully for the market, the only time that I have beaten every portfolio on the Madsinger Monthly report. We were up .86% for the month.
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TnGuy
Posts: 469
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 8:31 am
Location: Oak Ridge, TN

Post by TnGuy »

Thanks, Brad.


Here's what the TnGuy 100% equity (54% Intl.) port did over January:


Jan = YTD - (7.50%)
12 Months - (0.85%)


Leaders for January:

REIT - (0.34%)
LV - (4.07%)
Intl. REIT - (4.85%)
SV - (5.33%)
LG - (5.76%)

and the Laggards:

SG - (7.82%)
Intl. LV - (9.62%)
Intl. LG - (10.56%)
EM - (11.08%)


David
"Money will not make you happy. And happy will not make you money." - Groucho Marx
gkaplan
Posts: 7034
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:34 pm
Location: Portland, Oregon

Post by gkaplan »

See ya 03/31.
Gordon
Retiree
Posts: 110
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2007 11:44 am

Post by Retiree »

Just for fun, I calculated how my portfolio would have done versus the examples given above:


Fund % 1mo 1yr 5yr 10yr

VG Total Stock Market 23 -4.75 5.49 13.80 6.25
VG Total Intl Stock Market 7 -7.39 15.52 23.45 9.44
VG Total Bond Market 35 1.90 6.92 4.35 5.71
Inflation Protected Securities 30 3.37 15.61 6.76 7.00 (dummy value for 10 yr return)
Prime Money Market 5 0.39 5.14 2.99 3.74

Overall Portfolio 100 0.09 9.71 8.52 6.38


Sorry for the messy formatting, I could not figure out how to use a monospaced font.
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madsinger
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Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

To make a nice chart, format the text the way you want in some editor (like notepad), then click on the "Code" button, paste in your text, and press the "Code" button again. If I've done this right, this should be a pretty chart:

Code: Select all

     Fund                       %   1mo    1yr   5yr   10yr
VG Total Stock Market          23  -4.75   5.49 13.80  6.25
VG Total Intl Stock Market      7  -7.39  15.52 23.45  9.44
VG Total Bond Market           35   1.90   6.92  4.35  5.71
Inflation Protected Securities 30   3.37  15.61  6.76  7.00 (dummy value for 10 yr return)
Prime Money Market              5   0.39   5.14  2.99  3.74

Overall Portfolio             100   0.09   9.71  8.52  6.38
-Brad.
Retiree
Posts: 110
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2007 11:44 am

Post by Retiree »

madsinger,

Thanks for the formatting tip.

.... Retiree
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