madsinger monthly report (September 2013)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2013 returns, 2013 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2010 (14 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 60/5/3/32 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Sep      YTD      since   since   since   since
                  2013     2013     2010    2008    2003    1999
Hot Hands         5.42%   31.38%   16.34%   1.98%  12.42%  12.23%
Sheltered Sam     4.14%   15.56%   12.10%   3.88%  10.16%   7.15%
VFINX             3.13%   19.66%   13.80%   4.58%   8.27%   3.96%
                  
Newsletter G      4.75%   23.60%   13.20%   4.92%  10.48%   9.25%
Newsletter G-IND  4.35%   19.90%   13.92%   4.62%   9.97%   5.84%
s&d               4.36%   12.48%   10.61%   4.58%   9.76%   7.30%
3 fund            4.19%   13.10%    9.99%   4.00%   8.92%   5.43%
LS G              3.97%   13.59%   10.64%   3.19%   8.11%   4.69%

Code: Select all

Newsletter CG     4.24%   20.50%   12.42%   5.08%   9.49%   7.53%
Wellington        2.28%   12.57%   10.62%   5.84%   8.80%   7.15%
coffeehouse       3.17%    9.56%   10.11%   5.72%   8.61%   7.01%
STAR              3.55%   11.29%    9.91%   5.13%   8.20%   6.45%
LS MG             3.19%    9.59%    9.21%   3.67%   7.34%   4.94%
                  
Newsletter Inc    2.85%   11.90%   10.58%   5.35%   7.26%   5.25%
Wellesley         1.63%    5.26%    9.50%   6.93%   7.19%   6.80%
LS CG             2.49%    5.67%    7.35%   3.66%   6.22%   4.86%
                  
madsinger         3.31%   11.40%    9.93%   4.50%      

[madsinger]

A few days late this month...business, you know.

A very strong month of September for most things. US large stocks up over +3%, small over 5%, internationals in the 7% range. Bonds up about 1%. My anvil that I have made out of precious metal was down another -3% for the month. As has been the case most of the year, the portfolios with the most stocks did the best. Unlike most of the year, this month, internationals positively influenced the portfolios that are heavy in them (e.g. 3 fund).

Wishing you all well.
-Brad.

[InvestorNewb]

What does the "Hot Hands" portfolio consist of?

[madsinger]

What does the "Hot Hands" portfolio consist of?

"Hot Hands" is not really a portfolio. It is simply holding the single diversified stock fund that was the best performing Vanguard stock fund last year. This year it is up very well, but I should point out that from 2008 it dropped about -48%. I certainly do not recommend holding this as a "portfolio". I track it as a curiosity.

-Brad.

[jjustice]

I see that LifeStrategy Growth has finally pulled ahead of Wellington in the three most recent periods. Wellington has been very impressive, but I suppose that bonds have weakened and foreign equity has strengthened lately.
John

[investor]

Thanks Brad... the "lucky" Wellington keeps marching along...Like the energizer rabbit. Have held it for many years.

the Hot Hands fund changes every year. search past Madsinger posts for a clue to the current Hot Hands fund

investor

[gkaplan]

As of September 30, 2013, my year-to-date return is 8.51%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of returns are 21.52%, 11.77%, 7.52%, and 7.00%, respectively.

My best performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of 23.45%. My annualized quarterly and one-year rates of return are 34.19 and 17.93, respectively.

My worst fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return –5.40%. My annualized quarterly and one-year rates of return are 24.92% and 0.99, respectively.

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

69.07%: Vanguard Roth IRA (My year-to-date return is 11.97%. My annualized
quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return follow: 31.61%, 11.97%, 16.78%, and 9.29%, respectively.

30.93%: Thrift Savings Plan (My year-to-date return is 0.99%. My annualized
quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return follow: 0.93%, 1.34%, 1.79%, and 1.32%, respectively.

Target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

13.50%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
13.50%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
05.50%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
05.50%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
11.00%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
11.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging
40.00%: Fixed Income

As of September 30, 2013, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 60/40. Specifically, my current allocations are as follows.

13.73%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VVIAX)
14.34%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSIAX)
05.73%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEUSX)
06.43%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPADX)
10.50%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VFSVX)
10.30%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging (VEMAX)
08.04%: Fixed Income – TIPS (VAIPX)
30.93%: Fixed Income – TSP (G Fund)

(Totals do not add to 100% because of rounding.)

Submitted for your approval.