madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2012 returns, 2012 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2002, 2007 and 2009 (13 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 61/5/3/31 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR     CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Nov      YTD     since    since   since   since
                  2012     2012    2009     2007    2002    1999
Hot Hands         0.33%   12.88%   13.21%  -1.93%   8.37%  10.78%
Sheltered Sam     0.43%   13.00%   14.30%   1.35%   6.79%   6.28%
VFINX             0.56%   14.79%   14.53%   2.08%   3.88%   2.80%
                  
s&d               0.69%   11.92%   12.87%   2.62%   7.13%   6.65%
Newsletter G      1.80%   12.90%   14.68%   2.52%   6.15%   8.08%
Newsletter G-IND  1.52%   13.40%   16.01%   3.03%   6.07%   4.73%
3 fund            0.96%   12.32%   12.21%   2.88%   5.97%   4.69%
LS G              0.91%   12.55%   12.42%   1.86%   4.90%   3.90%

Code: Select all

coffeehouse       0.43%   10.07%   11.81%   4.10%   6.84%   6.61%
Wellington        0.17%   11.69%   12.25%   4.85%   6.71%   6.62%
STAR              1.02%   12.18%   12.32%   3.96%   5.86%   5.92%
Newsletter CG     1.63%   12.30%   13.46%   2.88%   5.61%   6.46%
LS MG             0.72%   10.48%   11.10%   3.01%   5.16%   4.47%
                  
Wellesley         0.28%    9.85%   11.77%   6.75%   7.00%   6.81%
Newsletter Inc    0.82%   10.60%   12.31%   3.72%   5.52%   4.66%
LS CG             0.58%    8.45%    9.67%   3.65%   4.99%   4.69%
                  
madsinger         0.31%    9.75%   12.71%   3.08%
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

Post by madsinger »

A lot of volatility, but in the end, a rather tame month.

madsinger lagged this month with losses in Value Index, REIT and precious metals and mining.

Still, a 10%-ish return through 11 months is nothing to be too upset with.

After "Sandy" at the end of October, I hope this past month has been quiet and prosperous for you all!

-Brad.
dkturner
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Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

Post by dkturner »

Brad,

There are a plethora of posts on this forum arguing that the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund is the solution to most balanced investing problems. It's way better than that casino, the Vanguard Wellington Fund. Any idea how its performance would look compared to the funds/asset classes on your list?
Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

dkturner wrote:Brad,

There are a plethora of posts on this forum arguing that the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund is the solution to most balanced investing problems. It's way better than that casino, the Vanguard Wellington Fund. Any idea how its performance would look compared to the funds/asset classes on your list?
If Wellington is the casino, then count me in.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
livesoft
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Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

Post by livesoft »

dkturner, below is a chart that may be helpful even though it doesn't have Vanguard Balanced fund on it. Wellington does well when long-term bonds do well and large-cap [value] stocks that it holds does well.

Vanguard TR funds do better when there is no special advantage for growth or value stocks. Fidelity Freedom Funds do better when growth stocks do better than value. And DFA funds do better when value stocks do better than growth. A portfolio with more international than another will do better when international is doing better. A portfolio with less international will do better than another with more international when international is doing worse. All these statements in this paragraph should be met with a "Well, duh." response.

So will the managers of Wellington go heavy on international stocks if international is doing better? Will they get out of long-term bonds in time? Will they go to small-cap stocks if large-caps go out of favor? Somehow I don't think so. I think Wellington will stick to what it does.

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jjustice
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Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

Post by jjustice »

The moral seems to be that you have to be fancy and lucky to beat Wellington and Wellesley. Maybe it's better not to try.

John
dkturner
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Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

Post by dkturner »

livesoft wrote:dkturner, below is a chart that may be helpful even though it doesn't have Vanguard Balanced fund on it. Wellington does well when long-term bonds do well and large-cap [value] stocks that it holds does well.

Vanguard TR funds do better when there is no special advantage for growth or value stocks. Fidelity Freedom Funds do better when growth stocks do better than value. And DFA funds do better when value stocks do better than growth. A portfolio with more international than another will do better when international is doing better. A portfolio with less international will do better than another with more international when international is doing worse. All these statements in this paragraph should be met with a "Well, duh." response.

So will the managers of Wellington go heavy on international stocks if international is doing better? Will they get out of long-term bonds in time? Will they go to small-cap stocks if large-caps go out of favor? Somehow I don't think so. I think Wellington will stick to what it does.

Image
Thanks for the information livesoft. The last sentence of your reply seems to have omitted its last two words. It should read "I think Wellington will stick to what it does very well." :happy
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Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

Post by livesoft »

Every dog has its day. And Wellington is a very fine dog.
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investor
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Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

Post by investor »

from Morningstar Premium
returns (%)..investsor shares as of 03 Dcember 2012
Fund, YTD, 3Yr, 5Yr, 10Yr, 15Yr

VBINX,.... 10.36,.. 9.48, ...3.94, ...6.80,...5.60.... Balanced index
VWELX,....11.34,.. 8.70, ...3.93, ...7.98,.. 6.91.... Wellington
VWINX, .....9.71, ..9.94,... 6.70,... 7.31,...7.18.... Wellesley
VTMFX,.....10.72,..8.65,... 4.50,....6.37,...5.57.... Tax Managed Balanced

these are investor shares, admiral shares do not go back 15 years.

caveat: I have large holdings of Wellington and Wellesley admiral funds in IRA and some VTMFX in taxable.

investor
mawhinney
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Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

Post by mawhinney »

Investor ~ Why do you hold both Wellington and Wellesley? Wellington is a 60/40 split between stocks and bonds while Wellesley is 40/60 stock to bonds.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2012)

Post by investor »

mawhinney wrote:Investor ~ Why do you hold both Wellington and Wellesley? Wellington is a 60/40 split between stocks and bonds while Wellesley is 40/60 stock to bonds.
It gives me a 50/50 stock bond mix. Also the stocks held in each fund are not the same.

investor
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