madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2007 returns, 2007 YTD returns, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 (9 years, 7 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001.

The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

The madsinger portfolio (slice-n-dice, approximately 66/5/3/26 stock/REIT/PM/bond) is included at the end.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                 CAGR    CAGR   CAGR    CAGR 
                Dec     YTD      since   since  since   since 
                2007    2007     1999    2001   2003    2005 
Sheltered Sam  -1.61%   3.30%    9.30%   9.26%  17.86%  11.99% 
VFINX          -0.70%   5.39%    3.56%   3.17%  12.69%   8.49% 

s&d            -1.55%   3.83%    9.07%   8.89%  16.03%  10.72% 
Newsletter G   -1.88%   9.50%   12.05%   7.85%  17.14%  13.04% 
3 fund         -0.99%   8.79%    6.35%   6.58%  14.86%  11.11% 
LS G           -0.74%   7.46%    5.67%   5.76%  14.05%  10.08% 

Wellington     -0.53%   8.34%    7.98%   8.16%  12.29%   9.97% 
coffeehouse    -1.05%   2.91%    7.87%   7.90%  12.09%   7.84% 
newsletter CG  -1.63%   8.30%    9.09%   6.98%  14.73%  10.91% 
STAR           -1.00%   6.58%    7.29%   6.80%  11.84%   8.51% 
LS MG          -0.49%   7.36%    5.76%   5.87%  11.72%   8.74% 
      
Wellesley      -0.50%   5.61%    6.71%   7.05%   7.47%   6.72% 
newsletter Inc -1.24%   3.40%    5.14%   5.77%   9.41%   6.69% 
LS CG          -0.23%   6.99%    5.63%   5.68%   9.25%   7.32% 

madsinger      -0.89%   5.27%                           10.24%
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

Phew! 2007 is in the in books. The last couple of months have turned what was a very good double-digit year into a positive, but below average year (for most of the portfolios).

Any tilting towards "small" or "value" had a negative impact on performance as compared with the total market. For comparison:

LB: 5.39% (VFINX)
LV: 0.09% (VIVAX)
SB: 1.16% (NAESX)
SV: -7.07% (VISVX)

The big cruncher for many of these portfolios was holding the REIT fund (VGSIX down -16.46% for the year). As petrocelli has sagely pointed out for a few years, the REIT fund had been a major source of "outperformance" for the "slice-n-dice" portfolios from 2002 through 2006, but if it ever underperformed...(and did it ever!).

International holdings helped a lot this year, with VGTSX at 15.52% and emerging markets even higher at 38.90%.

A little Precious Metals helped quite a bit, VGPMX up 36.13%.

The portfolios that don't "tilt" to small and value did quite well this year (the Life Strategy funds and the 3 fund).

My portfolio (madsinger) has a pretty large tilt to small and value, and underperformed accordingly. I have made no changes beyond the 1% uptick in my bond holding percentage (and the requisite downtick in stocks). There were a handful of rebalancing though the year: selling some REITs the beginning of February...and then buying some back in May...and June...and December; selling some emerging market and VINEX halfway through the year, and the occasional push to short bonds (although by the end of the year, even with the 1% bump up, my bonds are about 5% over their target --- 27.5% instead of 26%).

I hope you all were satisfied with your performance this past year (I was!) and I wish you all a happy, healthy (yes...those two are more important!) and prosperous 2008!

-Brad.
gkaplan
Posts: 7034
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:34 pm
Location: Portland, Oregon

Post by gkaplan »

Brad, I was a lot happier at 09/30/2007.

As of 12/31/2007, the year-to-date return on my retirement portfolio is 7.96%. (By comparison, my year-to-date return at 09/31/2007was 9.38%).

My best performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Investor Shares (38.86%).

My poorest performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard REIT Index Fund Investor Shares (-16.72%).

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

73.71%: Vanguard Roth IRA (YTD Return, 8.15%)
26.29%: Thrift Savings Plan (YTD Return, 7.27%)

My target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 60/40, Equity/Fixed Income. The sixty percent equity allocation is split equally between domestic and foreign equity; the foreign equity is split 2:1 between developed and emerging markets. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

10%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
10%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
10%: Domestic REIT
20%: Foreign Developed Markets (Large)
10%: Foreign Emerging Markets (Large)
40%: Fixed Income

As of 12/31/2007, my current retirement portfolio allocation is split 60/40, Equity/Fixed Income.

My Domestic Equity/Foreign Equity/Fixed Income is split 34/26/40.

Specifically, my current allocations (as of 12/31/2007) are as follows.

9.95%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VIVAX)
11.51%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VISVX)
12.23%: Domestic REIT (VGSIX)
16.23%: Foreign Developed Markets – Large (6.31%, TSP I Fund; 9.92%, VDMIX)
9.95%: Foreign Emerging Markets – Large (VEIEX)
40.13% Fixed Income (19.98%, TSP G Fund; 20.15%, Vanguard TIPS Fund)

(I currently am overweighted in domestic equity and underweighted in foreign equity (particularly developed markets), because I intend to direct all my 2008 TSP contributions - $20,500 – to the TSP I Fund.)
Last edited by gkaplan on Thu Jan 03, 2008 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Gordon
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TnGuy
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Post by TnGuy »

Thanks for posting your info, Brad. I, like many here, enjoying reading, comparing and learning from it.


Here's what the TnGuy 100% equity port (~ 46/54 Domestic/Intl) did for December:

Dec. - (1.89%)

Leaders for December:

EM - (0.38%)
LG - (0.41%)
SV - (0.72%)
Intl LG - (1.27%)
LV - (1.42%)

And the laggards:

Intl LV - (2.38%)
SG - (3.27%)
REIT - (5.11%)
Intl REIT - (5.94%)


And for the year (2007):

YTD - 10.23%

Leaders:

EM - 38.90%
Intl LG - 17.26%
LG - 10.95%

Laggards:

Intl LV - 9.72%
LV - 0.18%
SV - (0.15%)
SG - (0.33%)
Intl REIT - (8.25%)
REIT - (16.46%)



David
"Money will not make you happy. And happy will not make you money." - Groucho Marx
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BlueEars
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Location: West Coast

Post by BlueEars »

Good report Brad, thanks!
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