Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

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howard71
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by howard71 »

You might be looking for an "all weather" portfolio. I adopted one in 2008 after seeing my stock heavy portfolio cut nearly in half, 8 years before my fored retirement as things turned out.
rockstar
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by rockstar »

If the OP skipped the News, would there be less anxiety?
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

rogue_economist wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:11 am Show the Russian or Chinese stock markets in the 20th century...
There were three. And weren't these countries that were under communism? I'm thinking Hungary, China and Russia:
Two months after the 1948 nationalisation of the majority of private Hungarian firms, the government officially dissolved the Budapest Stock and Commodity Exchange, and the exchange's assets became state property.

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Stock_Exchange
In 1941, the Japanese military took control of Shanghai and the stock market ceased operation. It reestablished itself shortly after the war, but was closed in 1949 during the Communist Revolution...A socialist market economy was established during the 1980s. This ultimately led to the Shanghai Stock Exchange to be reopened in 1990.
source: https://bizfluent.com/about-5070399-his ... arket.html
The St. Petersburg Stock Exchange shut down in August 1914 when World War I began, briefly reopened in 1917, then shut down for the next 75 years when the Russian Revolution began.

source: https://www.investmentoffice.com/Observ ... ution.html
good reason to diversify and own all countries that have publicly traded markets.

Maybe read William Bernstein's book Deep Risk. He talks about the 4 horsemen of the apocolypse and what assets "might" be helpful to own in these scenarios:
inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation
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vanuber
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by vanuber »

CookieDough wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 8:02 pm I'm trying hard to word this to abide by the forum's rules; if I misstep, please let me know and I'll adjust accordingly.

Is there any investing advice for when you are concerned about the future stability of the country you live in? I am not getting into any political specifics, just looking specifically for views about investing in such conditions, i.e., potentially increasing international stocks or bonds, holding more cash, buying gold, etc.

Any links to relevant articles would be appreciated -- again, though, with a focus on investment choices, not on politics.
My wife and I have similar concerns, but I don't think they are limited to this country (many other countries are facing similar rad governments). I believe in the innovation, creativity and resilience of the American market. I hold and continue to invest in VTSAX through my retirement accounts. But my ethics often conflict with the tenets of capitalism and the values of large corporations. We have been shifting more toward local real estate in the past few years, as well as building more cash savings. We are also looking for ways to be more involved with our local economy, resources, government and community. I suppose we are focusing less on what we can't control (global, national) and more on what we can (local).

With an 18 month old child, I find the future of food resources (and water resources for some) much more frightening than the current political state. Industrialized agriculture has many issues and human resourcefulness has been greatly diminished over the past 100 years. We believe climate change will dramatically shift food options, availability and cost. So we think about investing in resources to buffer that. For example, we have friends with a homestead who grow most of the food they eat, as well as providing eggs and some meat for sale. They are developing adaptable crops that can sustain more severe weather. We don't plan on becoming farmers in the future, but we are keen on building a local network of food resources (and are lucky to live in an area that can offer this).

JL Collins has some good ideas around Chicken Little mentality in Simple Path to Wealth. I am paraphrasing, but basically he says that if you think this time is different, then you are wrong. And that in the unlikely event of an apocalypse or governmental collapse, we will have much bigger worries than our personal finances. :)
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by exodusing »

vanuber wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:35 pm
CookieDough wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 8:02 pm I'm trying hard to word this to abide by the forum's rules; if I misstep, please let me know and I'll adjust accordingly.

Is there any investing advice for when you are concerned about the future stability of the country you live in? I am not getting into any political specifics, just looking specifically for views about investing in such conditions, i.e., potentially increasing international stocks or bonds, holding more cash, buying gold, etc.

Any links to relevant articles would be appreciated -- again, though, with a focus on investment choices, not on politics.
My wife and I have similar concerns, but I don't think they are limited to this country (many other countries are facing similar rad governments). I believe in the innovation, creativity and resilience of the American market.
The American economy and the American market are two different things.
vanuber wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:35 pmJL Collins has some good ideas around Chicken Little mentality in Simple Path to Wealth. I am paraphrasing, but basically he says that if you think this time is different, then you are wrong. And that in the unlikely event of an apocalypse or governmental collapse, we will have much bigger worries than our personal finances. :)
The American economy, the world, etc. are different than they were. America went from an emerging power to the world's superpower, science has advanced significantly, investing is much easier and lower cost (e.g., low cost index funds and financial and market regulation), medicine and life expectancy have changed, the Fed now exists and has gotten better at managing the economy (for example, compare unemployment following the great financial crisis and following the pandemic), etc., etc. The "this time it's different" meme is too simplistic.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Dottie57 »

Tom_T wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:37 am Today is a good example of how it is folly to react to news. Market opens down ~2%. Doom and gloom. Not long after, news comes that tariff on Mexico is postponed. Instantly, market recovers quite a bit of its loss. All that happened possibly before you even had your second cup of coffee. And who knows about this afternoon or tomorrow?

If you were very lucky, you bought some shares sometime after opening but before the new announcement. If you were unlucky, you dumped your shares at the open only to see the market come back. It's a fool's errand.

You just don't know what is going to happen, and even if you did, you're not going to outrace the algos that buy and sell shares. Stay diversified, have a proper asset allocation, and sit back and watch.
No I did what I usually do during bad times. I did nothing.

I do think I will take a distribution from my 401k and move it to my bank. Purpose is set up spending for this year and next.
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mbltna
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by mbltna »

To everyone here, thank you. I'm grateful OP posted this question as I really needed to hear from the collective wisdom of the community.

I thought I set up our finances to weather whatever mental storm may be coming (via emergency fund, diversity, asset allocation, etc), but anxiety was getting the better of me lately. In particular, I started worrying about the "things I didn't know" (in case this situation was somehow different!). That is, I was expecting that some major piece of boglehead philosophy had passed me by and I was "exposed" in some way. Based on the replies here, looks like I'm worrying about nothing - which is a tribute to all the information written up in the wiki and shared here on a daily basis! Time to stick with my plan and get back to living.

Again, thank you all for your wisdom!
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by jebmke »

Dottie57 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 1:23 pm
Tom_T wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:37 am Today is a good example of how it is folly to react to news. Market opens down ~2%. Doom and gloom. Not long after, news comes that tariff on Mexico is postponed. Instantly, market recovers quite a bit of its loss. All that happened possibly before you even had your second cup of coffee. And who knows about this afternoon or tomorrow?

If you were very lucky, you bought some shares sometime after opening but before the new announcement. If you were unlucky, you dumped your shares at the open only to see the market come back. It's a fool's errand.

You just don't know what is going to happen, and even if you did, you're not going to outrace the algos that buy and sell shares. Stay diversified, have a proper asset allocation, and sit back and watch.
No I did what I usually do during bad times. I did nothing.

I do think I will take a distribution from my 401k and move it to my bank. Purpose is set up spending for this year and next.
Things would have to move a lot more than 2% to get even close to a re-balance point.
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by PhoebeCoco »

ETK517 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 8:32 am A good assumption is that most of what is causing you to become anxious is little more than a show, and that the end result of what is happening now will be whatever benefits entrenched corporate interests the most, or injures them the least. That's what happened the last time around, and has been the pattern with all political leaders regardless of party affiliation for decades now. The largest corporations in the US would not be bending the knee if they didn't believe it would ultimately benefit them. Whether or not you consider a government that is run primarily for the benefit of entrenched corporate interests to be a good thing for society, it suggests damage to a portfolio that is constituted of ownership interests in large corporations will be minimal.
This is my opinion also. Thank you for stating it so clearly.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by vanuber »

exodusing wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:51 pm
vanuber wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:35 pm My wife and I have similar concerns, but I don't think they are limited to this country (many other countries are facing similar rad governments). I believe in the innovation, creativity and resilience of the American market.
The American economy and the American market are two different things.
The United States has a mixed market economy, which is a combination of capitalism, a market economy, and government regulation.

Capitalism
People and businesses control the market, not the government
Businesses decide what to sell and how much to charge
Consumers decide what to buy

Market economy
Supply and demand drive the economy
Labor and natural resources are forms of supply
Personal consumption is an example of demand

Government regulation
The government regulates certain activities, such as defense, retirement benefits, and medical care
Private businesses must register with government agencies
Many professionals need government-approved licenses

Mixed economy
The US economy has elements of a command economy, a traditional economy, and a market economy
The US is one of the least-regulated market economies in the world

Thank you, AI^. Interesting to think about the balance of this mixture, what you align with as a citizen, and how the scale shifts overtime. It's clear we are experiencing a swing toward capitalism.
exodusing wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:51 pm
vanuber wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:35 pmJL Collins has some good ideas around Chicken Little mentality in Simple Path to Wealth. I am paraphrasing, but basically he says that if you think this time is different, then you are wrong. And that in the unlikely event of an apocalypse or governmental collapse, we will have much bigger worries than our personal finances. :)
The American economy, the world, etc. are different than they were. America went from an emerging power to the world's superpower, science has advanced significantly, investing is much easier and lower cost (e.g., low cost index funds and financial and market regulation), medicine and life expectancy have changed, the Fed now exists and has gotten better at managing the economy (for example, compare unemployment following the great financial crisis and following the pandemic), etc., etc. The "this time it's different" meme is too simplistic.
Aren't things always different than they were? You may have had the same response 20 years ago. Honestly, I don't have the intelligence or bandwidth to understand how the macro historical view should affect my investing philosophy. Simplicity is helpful for staying the course.
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warner25
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by warner25 »

SuzBanyan wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 10:13 am It will be interesting to me to see if there is the common “flight to safety” of buying Treasuries in reaction to the market turmoil. With 6 guys who are not government employees now controlling all the payments made by the federal government... I don’t see Treasuries as a “safe bet.”
A few days ago my wife asked me if I thought we should pull all of our money out of the stock market. For context, I've been on this forum for a long time, several years longer than my "joined" date indicates, and I believe that I'm about as true of a Boglehead as one can be. My immediate response was, "no, broad diversification, including owning shares of thousands of companies in and outside of the US, is still our best defense against whatever might come."

Then I started thinking, however, that I shouldn't have been so dismissive. I've written on this forum many times that I think the money managers in most relationships fail to consider their spouse's risk tolerance when making the investment decisions.

So I brought it up again with my wife, told her that and apologized, and then said: "Look, I'm willing to go more conservative if you want to do so, but what's not clear to me is what that would even mean right now. Normally that would mean moving more assets into US Dollars and Treasury debt (say, the TSP's G Fund, in our case), but I'm not sure that that would actually make you feel better." She agreed that it wouldn't make her feel any better.

And that's where we've left off for now -- as many others have pointed out in this thread -- feeling like there's not any clear, easy action to take if one starts to question the axiom that US Dollars and Treasury debt are actually safe.
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Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Lawrence of Suburbia »

Bagels wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:07 am
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 1:20 am Read The Wisdom Of Insecurity by Alan Watts; I keep a copy on my nightstand.
Just ordered a copy after reading your post.
I’ve seen some clips on youtube in the past and really like the guy.
He's the only philosopher who's ever made any sense to me. A great comfort at times, and if I could manage to completely internalize the message I'd never worry again! 😊
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by TomatoTomahto »

warner25 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 2:17 pm A few days ago my wife asked me if I thought we should pull all of our money out of the stock market. For context, I've been on this forum for a long time, several years longer than my "joined" date indicates, and I believe that I'm about as true of a Boglehead as one can be. My immediate response was, "no, broad diversification, including owning shares of thousands of companies in and outside of the US, is still our best defense against whatever might come."

Then I started thinking, however, that I shouldn't have been so dismissive. I've written on this forum many times that I think the money managers in most relationships fail to consider their spouse's risk tolerance when making the investment decisions.

So I brought it up again with my wife, told her that and apologized, and then said: "Look, I'm willing to go more conservative if you want to do so, but what's not clear to me is what that would even mean right now. Normally that would mean moving more assets into US Dollars and Treasury debt (say, the TSP's G Fund, in our case), but I'm not sure that that would actually make you feel better." She agreed that it wouldn't make her feel any better.

And that's where we've left off for now -- as many others have pointed out in this thread -- feeling like there's not any clear, easy action to take if one starts to question the axiom that US Dollars and Treasury debt are actually safe.
Good on you for rethinking, apologizing, and bringing the topic back with your wife.

My wife generally doesn’t care about the markets or our investments, but all of a sudden she’s saying things like “I heard there’s a month’s delay in Mexico tariffs.” Unfortunately, we don’t have answers to how best to prepare for what might be coming down the road, and no ability to even predict what the outcomes will be.
Last edited by TomatoTomahto on Mon Feb 03, 2025 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Tejfyy »

TheGiantess wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 8:57 am Read about Buddhism and Buddhist beliefs. A core idea is impermanence. Nothing is solid, ever. There is no ground under our feet, ever. We just like to think things are solid. Of course we need to to some degree to plan and live our lives but the present moment is all we have, ever. Maybe for some it's time to not focus so much on money. I know this is a financial forum so that's what we all focus in here but it helps me to remind myself of these other things.
TG
So true. It is a very freeing feeling to relinquish one's grasping onto and grasping at permanence in all its manifestations, not that I've mastered it. But when it comes to money and possessions yes I've got a handle on it because I've always had relatively little and been supremely content.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by exodusing »

Tejfyy wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 3:01 pm
TheGiantess wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 8:57 am Read about Buddhism and Buddhist beliefs. A core idea is impermanence. Nothing is solid, ever. There is no ground under our feet, ever. We just like to think things are solid. Of course we need to to some degree to plan and live our lives but the present moment is all we have, ever. Maybe for some it's time to not focus so much on money. I know this is a financial forum so that's what we all focus in here but it helps me to remind myself of these other things.
TG
So true. It is a very freeing feeling to relinquish one's grasping onto and grasping at permanence in all its manifestations, not that I've mastered it. But when it comes to money and possessions yes I've got a handle on it because I've always had relatively little and been supremely content.
I suppose the four noble truths could lead to not investing based on the news and staying the course.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by SeekingSecurity »

vanuber wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:35 pm
CookieDough wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 8:02 pm
JL Collins has some good ideas around Chicken Little mentality in Simple Path to Wealth. I am paraphrasing, but basically he says that if you think this time is different, then you are wrong. And that in the unlikely event of an apocalypse or governmental collapse, we will have much bigger worries than our personal finances. :)
This resonates with me.

At the beginning of the pandemic my social media feed was suddenly filled with all kinds of advertisements and stories about how to grow all of your own food. Now this was weird to me for two reasons: (1) live in a high rise building, so the algorithm kind of missed its mark and (2) that...that's not how societies work. If things go so badly that you can only eat what you grow, it won't matter how much land you have and how many seeds you've saved. The mob will come and take that food.

I think this way about the markets too. Tomorrow might not be like yesterday. It really might be different this time (or will be different at some next time in the future). I will never be in a position to separate myself from the society I live in to such a degree that I can shield myself from that kind of fundamental breakdown.

So,if the markets collapse in the ways they have before, then "stay the course" will probably have the same results it always has. If they collapse catastrophically, then I'm basically in the same position as everyone else. That'll be awful, but we'll have to figure out out together.
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Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Lawrence of Suburbia »

TheGiantess wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 8:57 am Read about Buddhism and Buddhist beliefs. A core idea is impermanence. Nothing is solid, ever. There is no ground under our feet, ever. We just like to think things are solid. Of course we need to to some degree to plan and live our lives but the present moment is all we have, ever. Maybe for some it's time to not focus so much on money. I know this is a financial forum so that's what we all focus in here but it helps me to remind myself of these other things.
TG
+1,000
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warner25
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by warner25 »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 2:31 pm...My wife generally doesn’t care about the markets of our investments, but all of a sudden she’s saying things like “I heard there’s a month’s delay in Mexico tariffs.”
Yes, exactly. The problem that I always talk about is mistaking the indifference or obliviousness of your spouse during "normal" times for their willingness to stay-the-course like a Boglehead when it hits the fan and is all over their social media feed, the radio, etc. That's when you might suddenly find out that your spouse actually isn't OK with being 100% US stocks or whatever with a tilt to some even riskier plays.

One of the things that's so remarkable right now is that these discussions are popping up when the market is still near all-time highs. Our personal net worth established a new high water mark when I updated it, as I always do, on the first of the month. The feeling of panic will grow exponentially if we start to see a real market decline.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by rogue_economist »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:27 pm
rogue_economist wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 12:11 am Show the Russian or Chinese stock markets in the 20th century...
There were three. And weren't these countries that were under communism? I'm thinking Hungary, China and Russia:
Two months after the 1948 nationalisation of the majority of private Hungarian firms, the government officially dissolved the Budapest Stock and Commodity Exchange, and the exchange's assets became state property.

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Stock_Exchange
In 1941, the Japanese military took control of Shanghai and the stock market ceased operation. It reestablished itself shortly after the war, but was closed in 1949 during the Communist Revolution...A socialist market economy was established during the 1980s. This ultimately led to the Shanghai Stock Exchange to be reopened in 1990.
source: https://bizfluent.com/about-5070399-his ... arket.html
The St. Petersburg Stock Exchange shut down in August 1914 when World War I began, briefly reopened in 1917, then shut down for the next 75 years when the Russian Revolution began.

source: https://www.investmentoffice.com/Observ ... ution.html
good reason to diversify and own all countries that have publicly traded markets.

Maybe read William Bernstein's book Deep Risk. He talks about the 4 horsemen of the apocolypse and what assets "might" be helpful to own in these scenarios:
inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation
They ended up under communism, but more to the point they went to 0.

Deep Risk seems like an intriguing work.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Carguy85 »

Ok 3 pages now of people who are genuinely concerned of a doom and gloom scenario in the very near future…now I’m curious….i suppose I’ll check out cnn/msnbc,nbc and see what the experts are saying.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by nisiprius »

Without discussing details, I would say that within the last fourteen days, there have been at the very least five things where my expectations for tomorrow have been wrong. Fortunately I have not made any investment changes based on any of them.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by MoneyIsTime »

nisiprius wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 4:53 pm Without discussing details, I would say that within the last fourteen days, there have been at the very least five things where my expectations for tomorrow have been wrong. Fortunately I have not made any investment changes based on any of them.
Agreed and same here. No changes. For now I am same old, same old, 60/40.

The only thing that REALLY worries me is the rapid pace of uncertainty compared to say "another time period". As the saying goes the markets don't like uncertainty. The one thing I am doing is investigating maybe taking the bond part of my AA and making a portion of it more inflation resistant. For example, maybe 50% BND and 50% VTIP. Nothing radical, just a slight tweak. Not changing my AA.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by goingup »

As an American citizen I am very worried about many things. As a Boglehead investor with a long-considered asset allocation, cash reserves, and an adequate nest egg, I'm prepared to humbly accept Market returns. If I wasn't an old grizzled veteran of the Dot-Com crash and Great Recession, I might feel less battle ready. In which case I would be reading books by Jack Bogle and trying to get my mind right.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by investuntilimrich »

Economic predictions are largely useless and usually sold by the same people who keep being wrong over and over and come on some television program "Now here's the guy who predicted...." except if you look at their past history, it's never true. They were wrong for 20 years in a row.

Once you accept that doomsday economic predictions are as useless as economic boom predictions, you're left with knowing only one thing: That neither you nor anyone else can predict what's going to happen or when it's going to happen. Once you accept that, the best we can do is holding a diversied portfolio.

My advice: Turn off the news before it causes you to do something financially regretful. Any gut instinct you have is probably wrong, any economic doomsday prophecy you've heard is also wrong and if it ever happened it would be pure coincidence.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Tom_T »

nisiprius wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 4:53 pm Without discussing details, I would say that within the last fourteen days, there have been at the very least five things where my expectations for tomorrow have been wrong. Fortunately I have not made any investment changes based on any of them.
My expectations for today alone were wrong twice!
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Tycoon »

Another day, more bad, ill-conceived, and erroneous predictions. Investing is hard when one's foundation is unstable.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Elric »

Apparently we were not the first, second, or third discussion our Schwab rep had just today asking him about how to move funds out of TSP.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by DesertDiva »

Tomorrow will not look like yesterday. Stay the course.
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by CookieDough »

OP here again. Thanks again, everyone. This has been a really useful discussion and reality check.

I think it boils down to "you pays your money, and you takes your chances."

I'm not inclined to rash action. I think mostly I wanted confirmation that there was nothing more I should be doing. And yeah, I know, "this time is different" is an oft-repeated refrain. But sometimes, "this time" really is different. It may or may not be this time, and if it is, it may or may not have a result I can predict. So whether or not it's different is immaterial to staying the course.

I've made the best bets I can. I'll let them ride.
Jaylat
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Jaylat »

CookieDough wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 8:02 pm I'm trying hard to word this to abide by the forum's rules; if I misstep, please let me know and I'll adjust accordingly.

Is there any investing advice for when you are concerned about the future stability of the country you live in? I am not getting into any political specifics, just looking specifically for views about investing in such conditions, i.e., potentially increasing international stocks or bonds, holding more cash, buying gold, etc.

Any links to relevant articles would be appreciated -- again, though, with a focus on investment choices, not on politics.
PARIS, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Luxury giant LVMH (LVMH.PA) is "seriously considering" bulking up its production capacities in the United States, CEO Bernard Arnault said on Tuesday, praising a "wind of optimism" in the country that contrasted with the "cold shower" of potentially higher corporate taxes in France.
Not everyone shares your concerns. Some are quite optimistic for the US.
EddyB
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by EddyB »

ScubaHogg wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 7:48 am
CookieDough wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 8:02 pm Is there any investing advice for when you are concerned about the future stability of the country you live in?
Foreign residency and foreign bank accounts is the only right answer really

Though I suspect some history books and old newspapers would be a cheaper solution to your concern
Make sure to sample from many countries.
jebmke
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by jebmke »

Jaylat wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:14 pm
CookieDough wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 8:02 pm I'm trying hard to word this to abide by the forum's rules; if I misstep, please let me know and I'll adjust accordingly.

Is there any investing advice for when you are concerned about the future stability of the country you live in? I am not getting into any political specifics, just looking specifically for views about investing in such conditions, i.e., potentially increasing international stocks or bonds, holding more cash, buying gold, etc.

Any links to relevant articles would be appreciated -- again, though, with a focus on investment choices, not on politics.
PARIS, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Luxury giant LVMH (LVMH.PA) is "seriously considering" bulking up its production capacities in the United States, CEO Bernard Arnault said on Tuesday, praising a "wind of optimism" in the country that contrasted with the "cold shower" of potentially higher corporate taxes in France.
Not everyone shares your concerns. Some are quite optimistic for the US.
Qu'ils mangent de la brioche !
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
etfan
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by etfan »

Any recommendations on holding foreign accounts (either cash savings or assets) that are easy and convenient?
Target2019
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Target2019 »

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 1:20 am I'm completely deer-in-the-headlights about recent U.S. events. Terrified at times; so, yet again, trying to wean myself away from the news and doomscrolling YouTube, etc.

But I don't think changing anything in my investment portfolio would make me feel any better, really. One thing I am certain of is, this nation is chock full of kind, decent people who will be stalwart when the going gets really difficult.

Read The Wisdom Of Insecurity by Alan Watts; I keep a copy on my nightstand.

Winston Churchill once said (apocryphally?) "The Americans always do the right thing -- after they've tried everything else."
"If my happiness at this moment consists largely in reviewing happy memories and expectations, I am but dimly aware of this present. I shall still be dimly aware of the present when the good things that I have been expecting come to pass. For I shall have formed a habit of looking behind and ahead, making it difficult for me to attend to the here and now. If, then, my awareness of the past and future makes me less aware of the present, I must begin to wonder whether I am actually living in the real world."

I've heard many of Alan Watts' lectures. I believe those can be downloaded from different sources.

The gist is to Be Here Now.
Kinda like an 80% passive index believer and 20% free spirit.
Wanderingwheelz
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

CookieDough wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 8:02 pm I'm trying hard to word this to abide by the forum's rules; if I misstep, please let me know and I'll adjust accordingly.

Is there any investing advice for when you are concerned about the future stability of the country you live in? I am not getting into any political specifics, just looking specifically for views about investing in such conditions, i.e., potentially increasing international stocks or bonds, holding more cash, buying gold, etc.

Any links to relevant articles would be appreciated -- again, though, with a focus on investment choices, not on politics.
Consume a lot less media than you are. The fear/concern you’ve allowed yourself to be overcome with didn’t come from within.

What is it that everyone suddenly overcome with anxiety and concern over the last several weeks doesn’t want to get into politics when that’s at the root of the fear/concern?

Like, if you’re suffering from jitteriness and headaches maybe 12 cups of coffee a day is too much?
Being wrong compounds forever.
eucalyptus
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by eucalyptus »

etfan wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:12 am Any recommendations on holding foreign accounts (either cash savings or assets) that are easy and convenient?
I find this question draws mostly smug lectures when asked here. That said, and with the important caveat that I haven't even begun to explore any of these, options I've collected so far for foreign currency and similar accounts include HSBC offshore, Barclays offshore, Interactive Pro, Wise, Schwab International and foreign trusts.
lazynovice
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by lazynovice »

Wanderingwheelz wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:49 am
CookieDough wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 8:02 pm I'm trying hard to word this to abide by the forum's rules; if I misstep, please let me know and I'll adjust accordingly.

Is there any investing advice for when you are concerned about the future stability of the country you live in? I am not getting into any political specifics, just looking specifically for views about investing in such conditions, i.e., potentially increasing international stocks or bonds, holding more cash, buying gold, etc.

Any links to relevant articles would be appreciated -- again, though, with a focus on investment choices, not on politics.
Consume a lot less media than you are. The fear/concern you’ve allowed yourself to be overcome with didn’t come from within.

What is it that everyone suddenly overcome with anxiety and concern over the last several weeks doesn’t want to get into politics when that’s at the root of the fear/concern?

Like, if you’re suffering from jitteriness and headaches maybe 12 cups of coffee a day is too much?
Forum rules prevent getting into politics.
exodusing
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by exodusing »

Target2019 wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:42 am
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 1:20 am I'm completely deer-in-the-headlights about recent U.S. events. Terrified at times; so, yet again, trying to wean myself away from the news and doomscrolling YouTube, etc.

But I don't think changing anything in my investment portfolio would make me feel any better, really. One thing I am certain of is, this nation is chock full of kind, decent people who will be stalwart when the going gets really difficult.

Read The Wisdom Of Insecurity by Alan Watts; I keep a copy on my nightstand.

Winston Churchill once said (apocryphally?) "The Americans always do the right thing -- after they've tried everything else."
"If my happiness at this moment consists largely in reviewing happy memories and expectations, I am but dimly aware of this present. I shall still be dimly aware of the present when the good things that I have been expecting come to pass. For I shall have formed a habit of looking behind and ahead, making it difficult for me to attend to the here and now. If, then, my awareness of the past and future makes me less aware of the present, I must begin to wonder whether I am actually living in the real world."

I've heard many of Alan Watts' lectures. I believe those can be downloaded from different sources.

The gist is to Be Here Now.
Be Here Now :sharebeer
Jaylat
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Jaylat »

jebmke wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 6:29 am
Jaylat wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:14 pm
Not everyone shares your concerns. Some are quite optimistic for the US.
Qu'ils mangent de la brioche !
Let's just say we disagree profoundly.

Every day I read gloom and doom prognostications that within days or hours turn out to be fever dreams. Yet another reason to not let this affect your investment portfolio. Stay the course and diversify - and filter out the static.
CoAndy
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by CoAndy »

Jaylat wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:14 pm
CookieDough wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 8:02 pm I'm trying hard to word this to abide by the forum's rules; if I misstep, please let me know and I'll adjust accordingly.

Is there any investing advice for when you are concerned about the future stability of the country you live in? I am not getting into any political specifics, just looking specifically for views about investing in such conditions, i.e., potentially increasing international stocks or bonds, holding more cash, buying gold, etc.

Any links to relevant articles would be appreciated -- again, though, with a focus on investment choices, not on politics.
PARIS, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Luxury giant LVMH (LVMH.PA) is "seriously considering" bulking up its production capacities in the United States, CEO Bernard Arnault said on Tuesday, praising a "wind of optimism" in the country that contrasted with the "cold shower" of potentially higher corporate taxes in France.
Not everyone shares your concerns. Some are quite optimistic for the US.
Very true.
BuglheadLuvsLondon
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by BuglheadLuvsLondon »

Tomorrow never looks like yesterday (or today). And that's what makes a market.
jebmke
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by jebmke »

Jaylat wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 9:17 am
jebmke wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 6:29 am

Qu'ils mangent de la brioche !
Let's just say we disagree profoundly.

Every day I read gloom and doom prognostications that within days or hours turn out to be fever dreams. Yet another reason to not let this affect your investment portfolio. Stay the course and diversify - and filter out the static.
I don't. I've been investing since the 1970s. the cycles come and go on their own. They just happen. When they do, weak business and ones that are not sustainable except in good times get slaughtered -- as they should.
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
BuglheadLuvsLondon
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by BuglheadLuvsLondon »

I think the real answer to your concern is to diversify globally (I do not). The problem is that when the US hiccups, the whole world shakes. I think the U.S. is much stronger than any short-term bumps in the road. I'm extremely bullish on the U.S.
jebmke
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by jebmke »

I have no expectations either way. 80% of life is managing expectations. The easiest way to do that is not have them if you know that they will always be wrong.
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
etfan
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by etfan »

eucalyptus wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:59 am
etfan wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:12 am Any recommendations on holding foreign accounts (either cash savings or assets) that are easy and convenient?
I find this question draws mostly smug lectures when asked here. That said, and with the important caveat that I haven't even begun to explore any of these, options I've collected so far for foreign currency and similar accounts include HSBC offshore, Barclays offshore, Interactive Pro, Wise, Schwab International and foreign trusts.
Thanks for the recommendations! I'd be interested to know the complexity, durability and tax implications.

And yes, I am aware of the normalcy bias. We all like to cleverly point out the last 1000 times when things looked "different" but ended up not being "different" after all, which is exactly the mentality of most people at times when things did in fact turn out to be... "different".
Hot Sauce
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Hot Sauce »

CookieDough wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 10:52 pm OP here again. Thanks again, everyone. This has been a really useful discussion and reality check.

I think it boils down to "you pays your money, and you takes your chances." I've made the best bets I can. I'll let them ride.
Great attitude! And don’t forget time helps too. Like a bad kidney stone, this too shall pass.
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warner25
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by warner25 »

lazynovice wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 9:06 am
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:49 am What is it that everyone suddenly overcome with anxiety and concern over the last several weeks doesn’t want to get into politics when that’s at the root of the fear/concern?
Forum rules prevent getting into politics.
Unfortunately, what fills me with anxiety and concern isn't even a matter of "politics" by any conventional definition; like it's definitely not about possible tariffs, which are a legitimate matter of economic and foreign policy with pros and cons. We've just reached a point where factual answers to some basic rule-of-law questions have been rejected and redefined as "political" by a number of American adults, like we're split into two parallel universes, so I can't even begin to reason about what they might decide next. Frankly, that is at the bottom of what is most concerning to me.

But yes, we should try not to get this thread locked due to forum rules, because I think it has been helpful to many people.
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Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by Lawrence of Suburbia »

exodusing wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 9:14 am
Target2019 wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:42 am The gist is to Be Here Now.
Be Here Now :sharebeer
+1♡

https://youtu.be/oSYmD6kHdKo?feature=shared
VTTVX/FMSDX/VWINX/DODWX/TIAA Traditional/SWVXX | ... I got active, I got indexed. A foot in each camp
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ApeAttack
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Re: Investing when you don't expect tomorrow to look like yesterday

Post by ApeAttack »

Jaylat wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 9:17 am
jebmke wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 6:29 am

Qu'ils mangent de la brioche !
Let's just say we disagree profoundly.

Every day I read gloom and doom prognostications that within days or hours turn out to be fever dreams. Yet another reason to not let this affect your investment portfolio. Stay the course and diversify - and filter out the static.
"If you see ten troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that nine will run into the ditch before they reach you."

-Calvin Coolidge


That tenth trouble might be pretty bad though. Unfortunately, we often cannot know which trouble will be the bad one until it's too late, and therefore we cannot know which investment action to take to best counteract/exploit the trouble until it's too late. I'm sticking with my 90:10 stock: bond (75% US, 25% ex-US) because my crystal ball is cloudy.
May all your index funds gain +0.5% today.
Locked