Agreed. They have also increased the allocation to Total International Bond Index fund.Austintatious wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:46 amRight or wrong, it's been my impression that Vanguard has been gradually increasing their recommation on international holdings. They're at 40 percent, now. I recently read an article having world market cap for international at 48 percent, so Vanguard is already pretty close.abuss368 wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:38 am I would not be surprised if Vanguard moves the needle to 50% US and 50% International.
Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Research affiliates also does an estimation using dividend discount model too (there version assumes no change in valuations). It provides a higher return projection. In there tool there is a way to flip to that model.selters wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:30 amPeople said that in 2000, too. As if the 20% annual returns from 1995-2000 weren't likely to cannibalize much of the returns of the 2000s. But valuations aren't close now to what they were in 2000. So unless earnings don't collapse, I believe in higher returns than 0.5% real annualized, too.0.5% real return for US large cap the coming decade? That can’t be right.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Because many of them are, including oft-quoted Mr. Buffett and Mr. Bogle.willthrill81 wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:07 amWhy do you assume that those promoting U.S. only (which I'm actually not) are "adherents of American exceptionalism?"Vulcan wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:23 amAdherents of American exceptionalism need to look no further than out their window. Or perhaps even their mirror.
I am sure Finnish version of SEC offers similar warnings about investing outside Finland.willthrill81 wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:07 am The SEC's warnings (posted above) about investing in international equities don't say anything about the U.S. being superior to anyone else.
And there are probably some Finns that only invest domestically. And guess what. They even outperformed the US-only investors.
But the only approach that logically flows from the "nobody knows nothin'" maxim is global market cap.
Incidentally, I was able to take advantage of this Monday's drop to convert my last holdings of VTSAX and VTIAX into VTWSX with minimal taxable gains, and am breathing a sigh of relief:)
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Indeed some are but certainly not all.Vulcan wrote: Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:24 amBecause many of them are, including oft-quoted Mr. Buffett and Mr. Bogle.willthrill81 wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:07 amWhy do you assume that those promoting U.S. only (which I'm actually not) are "adherents of American exceptionalism?"Vulcan wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:23 amAdherents of American exceptionalism need to look no further than out their window. Or perhaps even their mirror.
The Sensible Steward
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Most of us have probably historically had home country bias. Which has been painfulsamsdad wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:44 am Honest question to our international-domiciled friends:
What is the view in your country towards investing 50% or so of your equity allocation in US equities? Is there a push to do it, like the push to invest internationally here? Or is it just assumed that investing some % in the US is “necessary,” a “good idea,” etc.? Or is there a home bias in Finland for example and no one really feels it necessary to invest in the US?
_____
By the way, if you like Finlandia, try Sibelius’ violin concerto with the Berliner Philharmoniker, Herbert von Karajan and Christian Ferras (the most underrated musician, let alone violinist, I’ve ever heard). https://www.amazon.com/Sibelius-Violin- ... B00000E3HR
If you are not US based then it's very hard to make an argument based on fact or theory against global market weighting ie c 55 per cent USA. The whole world uses iPhones and MS Windows.
On the other hand most of use Nestle products or drink Diageo whiskey or Guinness. So the America only view is bemusing to say the least.
Question of currency hedging is trickier.
Historically international investing had higher costs but most of us now have access to cheap Etfs.
Sometimes there are tax incentives to invest in domestic stocks. Evidence from Australia seems to suggest that is not a net benefit to investors.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
I never said all were. But I think the American exceptionalism argument is the most reasonable one for excluding foreign investmentswillthrill81 wrote: Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:36 amIndeed some are but certainly not all.Vulcan wrote: Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:24 amBecause many of them are, including oft-quoted Mr. Buffett and Mr. Bogle.willthrill81 wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:07 amWhy do you assume that those promoting U.S. only (which I'm actually not) are "adherents of American exceptionalism?"Vulcan wrote: Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:23 amAdherents of American exceptionalism need to look no further than out their window. Or perhaps even their mirror.

If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
I don't think so. This doesn't make any sense. Can someone illuminate for me which international economy will outperform the US markets? I am now thinking, what is Vanguard's end game here? What do other people think?
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
This thread is 7 years old. I think if you find vanguard's global outlook and summarize those, it would provide useful perspective of vanguard.
There are recent threads concerning the 2025 global outlook for international. Those thread are more relevant, perhaps.
There are recent threads concerning the 2025 global outlook for international. Those thread are more relevant, perhaps.
Kinda like an 80% passive index believer and 20% free spirit.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
There are still three years left in the decade since the prediction and plenty of cause for uncertainty, but so far it's not looking good.
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
The future was unknowable when Vanguard made these predictions. The future remains unknowable today.
Market predictions are entirely a waste of time. To me, they've always felt something like technical analysis, not in terms of how they are calculated, of course, but in terms of there complete and total uselessness.
Market predictions are entirely a waste of time. To me, they've always felt something like technical analysis, not in terms of how they are calculated, of course, but in terms of there complete and total uselessness.
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
“What matters is how things unfold relative to consensus expectations. In order for U.S. stocks to outperform over the long term, they need to do better, relative to investors’ expectations than non-U.S. stocks. It is almost impossible to predict whether they will.”marsinvest wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 11:11 pm I don't think so. This doesn't make any sense. Can someone illuminate for me which international economy will outperform the US markets? I am now thinking, what is Vanguard's end game here? What do other people think?
I pulled this quote from a 2017 article,
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/vanguar ... -bias.html
“I’m still a believer in diversification for the simple fact that I have no idea what the future will hold. Diversification is an admission of ignorance about the future.” — Ben Carlson
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
On the plus side, 7.5 years later it's still not too late to get into the party! If you like that sort of party.
And if you're more of a traditionalist (ala Graham/Bogle), and are approaching the distribution phase, then International still looks sort of interesting from a value+dividends approach.
And if you're more of a traditionalist (ala Graham/Bogle), and are approaching the distribution phase, then International still looks sort of interesting from a value+dividends approach.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Bogle had addressed this. Individually looking country by country can give a different perspective than lumping US vs Intl. The whole International as one chunk as defined by financial industry using EAFE or some other weighting index can make us think there are two choices, US and Intl. Looking at nations individually, Bogle had mused who is going to do better, French? they don't work hard enough he observed, then he made similar observations about other European nations and he observed issues with Japan. In the end, he concluded that outside the US, investing in commons stocks of businesses is not a very profitable affair due to work cultures and corporate structures.Robot Monster wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 3:08 pm I don't think so. This doesn't make any sense. Can someone illuminate for me which international economy will outperform the US markets? I am now thinking, what is Vanguard's end game here? What do other people think?
I am paraphrasing and making my own opinions from what I read as his remarks, so I am not in anyway authoritatively talking about what he said. Anyhow, I believe he concluded then 20% away from US cannot harm too much, while it may not benefit at all, therefore if you must put no more than 20% there for peace of mind. That's was his vision I believe and so far it has been proven right. Therefore, when you look country by country you will start questioning which country's businesses are going to do better. Now, that said, there may be a few businesses worldwide that will do better than some US businesses. For instance, I can think of Taiwan Semi or Novartis or Nestle or some other multinational headquartered elsewhere with presence in US that may do better individually than some US companies. Should we though own the entire EAFE haystack of many losers just so some of these multinationals may do well, or should we just conclude US multinationals in similar sectors can do well and we are well represented already.
The one thing though is currency exposure, when Intl tends to do well, a major part of it has to do with USD weakness, that may be one reason to hold some international diversification, just in case the USD cannot forever stay on top, then we want some of that.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
I'm still waiting for someone to show me the decade (say, starting in 1980, not 1900) where a general purpose Int'l fund outperformed the US SP500. I gave up on Int'l funds in the 90's when it became apparent to me that my Int'l funds were a waste of time and I never looked back.
Sure, some small country EM fund can have a great year - e.g., up 100%. But what did it do the next three years? Picking an EM fund is like picking a US fund manager based on last year's return. It almost never works out.
Sure, some small country EM fund can have a great year - e.g., up 100%. But what did it do the next three years? Picking an EM fund is like picking a US fund manager based on last year's return. It almost never works out.
The difficulty with jazz is there are too many notes. (Borrowed from Emperor's critique in Amadeus)
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Then you are good. Eventually, foreign stocks will disappear....but, then it is also true that over a decade bond funds very rarely outperform stocks. Maybe bonds will disappear too !JazzTime wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 6:51 pm I'm still waiting for someone to show me the decade (say, starting in 1980, not 1900) where a general purpose Int'l fund outperformed the US SP500. I gave up on Int'l funds in the 90's when it became apparent to me that my Int'l funds were a waste of time and I never looked back.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
I agree with this 100%, but if the purpose for holding Intl equities is for global diversification based on the companies within the fund, not diversification on speculation of the USD, then what are these companies actually bringing to the "diversification table"?Elysium wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 6:34 pm The one thing though is currency exposure, when Intl tends to do well, a major part of it has to do with USD weakness, that may be one reason to hold some international diversification, just in case the USD cannot forever stay on top, then we want some of that.
"I order the food, you cook the food. Then the customer gets the food. We do that for 40 years, and then we die." -Squidward S3E2
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
BMW sells (and produces) cars in the US too, but it is subject to German/EU laws and business environment. For instance, at a time when labor may be scarce and expensive in the US, it could be cheaper in Germany. There you go: diversification.jdibber wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 7:56 pm I agree with this 100%, but if the purpose for holding Intl equities is for global diversification based on the companies within the fund, not diversification on speculation of the USD, then what are these companies actually bringing to the "diversification table"?
Rio Tinto's mines are not in the US; different labor/environmental laws. That too is diversification.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Still sticking with John Bogle's advice "You don't need international". So glad I cut my losses and got out of it back then.wesgreen wrote: Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:17 pm At least the dollar is bound to drop back down at some point. I hope Vanguard gets lucky and is right about this (international stocks to outperform U.S. stocks over the next 10 years by a margin of 3 to 3.5 percent), but I'll believe it when I see it. That would be a long awaited chance to finally switch my Int. allocation back to US, and recover some of what I lost by listening to their advice many years ago.
My trust in Vanguard doesn't grow when I see them make predictions like this, which tend to be wrong. I wonder what their motive might be - calming down customers who are voicing disappointment over their Target funds?
It has told plenty, thank you. I think I stick with Mr. Bogle from now on.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Do you know why that was his advice (in the 90's, if not in the 80's) ? Or is it an article of faith ?wesgreen wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 8:37 pm Still sticking with John Bogle's advice "You don't need international". So glad I cut my losses and got out of it back then.
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Mr. Bogle's rationale is detailed in his books.Thesaints wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 8:40 pmDo you know why that was his advice (in the 90's, if not in the 80's) ? Or is it an article of faith ?wesgreen wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 8:37 pm Still sticking with John Bogle's advice "You don't need international". So glad I cut my losses and got out of it back then.
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.* |
FIRE'd July 2023
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Internation stocks, as represented by the MSCI EAFE equities index, outperformed the US S&P 500 in each of the ten-year holding periods that ended in 1979 through 1994. They also out-performed for the ten-holding periods ending in 2007 through 2012. See the latest version of the SBBI yearbook for details.JazzTime wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 6:51 pm I'm still waiting for someone to show me the decade (say, starting in 1980, not 1900) where a general purpose Int'l fund outperformed the US SP500.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Google saysAlwaysLearningMore wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 10:02 pmMr. Bogle's rationale is detailed in his books.Thesaints wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 8:40 pm Do you know why that was his advice (in the 90's, if not in the 80's) ? Or is it an article of faith ?
Vanguard founder Jack Bogle famously argued that international stocks didn't merit inclusion in investors' portfolios. He argued that U.S. companies, especially U.S. large caps, derive plenty of their revenue from selling goods and services overseas.
Uva Uvam Vivendo Varia Fit
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Bogle's statements on international have been discussed here countless times. Basically, he said you don't need it, but if you want it, no more than 20 percent. Google "jack bogle international bogleheads", and you'll get plenty of reading material.Thesaints wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 8:40 pmDo you know why that was his advice (in the 90's, if not in the 80's) ? Or is it an article of faith ?wesgreen wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 8:37 pm Still sticking with John Bogle's advice "You don't need international". So glad I cut my losses and got out of it back then.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
He is completely ignoring the supply side AND the international trade aspects.He argued that U.S. companies, especially U.S. large caps, derive plenty of their revenue from selling goods and services overseas
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
I'm not able to check that, but I'll take your word for it. Were there any MF's back then that tracked that index?IDpilot wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:23 amInternation stocks, as represented by the MSCI EAFE equities index, outperformed the US S&P 500 in each of the ten-year holding periods that ended in 1979 through 1994. They also out-performed for the ten-holding periods ending in 2007 through 2012. See the latest version of the SBBI yearbook for details.JazzTime wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 6:51 pm I'm still waiting for someone to show me the decade (say, starting in 1980, not 1900) where a general purpose Int'l fund outperformed the US SP500.
I just checked FSPSX (Fid Int'l Index), which tracks the MSCI EAFE index and has been around since 1997. It's performance over the past decade was 5.8% and since inception was 5.2%. Might as well be in a CD. I view this type of performance as "deworsification."
My international investments include AAPL and PG, among other diversified US companies.
The difficulty with jazz is there are too many notes. (Borrowed from Emperor's critique in Amadeus)
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Yet his recommendation hasn't done too badly considering what you appear to perceive as "gaps" in his approach.Thesaints wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 9:44 amHe is completely ignoring the supply side AND the international trade aspects.He argued that U.S. companies, especially U.S. large caps, derive plenty of their revenue from selling goods and services overseas
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.* |
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
People who invested in BTC 10 years ago made many times the return regular investors can hope to achieve during their lifetime.AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 4:45 pmYet his recommendation hasn't done too badly considering what you appear to perceive as "gaps" in his approach.Thesaints wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 9:44 am
He is completely ignoring the supply side AND the international trade aspects.![]()
They also made arguments in support.
Would you say they were 10x as right as Bogle was ?
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
If you think a comparison between Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF BTC and an index fund is a good comparison, sorry I can’t help you.Thesaints wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 4:48 pmPeople who invested in BTC 10 years ago made many times the return regular investors can hope to achieve during their lifetime.AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 4:45 pm
Yet his recommendation hasn't done too badly considering what you appear to perceive as "gaps" in his approach.![]()
They also made arguments in support.
Would you say they were 10x as right as Bogle was ?
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/btc/quote
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.* |
FIRE'd July 2023
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
No, I mean those who bought BTC under $100.AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 5:55 pm If you think a comparison between Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF BTC and an index fund is a good comparison, sorry I can’t help you.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/btc/quote
You see, when dealing with stochastic systems, eventual success is not evidence of having made the best decision…
Besides, it is not difficult to see that a foreign-based company that sells a widget on the foreign market + a domestic company that sells the same widget on the IS market is a more diversified position than a us based company that sells the widget on the global market
Like they say, a basket of options is worth more than an option on a basket

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Check the wiki if you want to see the data yourself. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/MSCI_EAFE_indexJazzTime wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 2:37 pmI'm not able to check that, but I'll take your word for it. Were there any MF's back then that tracked that index?IDpilot wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:23 am
Internation stocks, as represented by the MSCI EAFE equities index, outperformed the US S&P 500 in each of the ten-year holding periods that ended in 1979 through 1994. They also out-performed for the ten-holding periods ending in 2007 through 2012. See the latest version of the SBBI yearbook for details.
I just checked FSPSX (Fid Int'l Index), which tracks the MSCI EAFE index and has been around since 1997. It's performance over the past decade was 5.8% and since inception was 5.2%. Might as well be in a CD. I view this type of performance as "deworsification."
My international investments include AAPL and PG, among other diversified US companies.
The index has been around since December 1969. I have no idea if when the first mutual fund started tracking it. Vanguard didn't have one until the late 1990's when the Developed Market Index Fund was opened.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Perhaps the below is why I got turned off to international (from MSCI EAFE data in the Wiki you cited):IDpilot wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 7:21 amCheck the wiki if you want to see the data yourself. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/MSCI_EAFE_indexJazzTime wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 2:37 pm
I'm not able to check that, but I'll take your word for it. Were there any MF's back then that tracked that index?
I just checked FSPSX (Fid Int'l Index), which tracks the MSCI EAFE index and has been around since 1997. It's performance over the past decade was 5.8% and since inception was 5.2%. Might as well be in a CD. I view this type of performance as "deworsification."
My international investments include AAPL and PG, among other diversified US companies.
The index has been around since December 1969. I have no idea if when the first mutual fund started tracking it. Vanguard didn't have one until the late 1990's when the Developed Market Index Fund was opened.
1993 -43.38%
1994 -23.45%
1995 -23.16%
1996 -21.44%
1997 -15.94%
1998 -14.92%
1999 -14.17%
. . . .
2007 -11.66%
2008 -4.90%
2009 -2.28%
2010 -1.86%
2011 -0.81%
2012 1.00%
2013 1.78%
2014 2.54%
2015 4.75%
No need to argue this is "cherry picked." That's besides the point. My point is I'm not interested in investing in anything that has multiple years of negative to slightly positive returns.
The difficulty with jazz is there are too many notes. (Borrowed from Emperor's critique in Amadeus)
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
That's a feature of every equity, and depending on the threshold for "slightly positive" literally everything else (e g. money markets, T-bills, etc.).JazzTime wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 8:13 am My point is I'm not interested in investing in anything that has multiple years of negative to slightly positive returns.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Agreed 100%.JazzTime wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 8:13 amPerhaps the below is why I got turned off to international (from MSCI EAFE data in the Wiki you cited):IDpilot wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 7:21 am
Check the wiki if you want to see the data yourself. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/MSCI_EAFE_index
The index has been around since December 1969. I have no idea if when the first mutual fund started tracking it. Vanguard didn't have one until the late 1990's when the Developed Market Index Fund was opened.
1993 -43.38%
1994 -23.45%
1995 -23.16%
1996 -21.44%
1997 -15.94%
1998 -14.92%
1999 -14.17%
. . . .
2007 -11.66%
2008 -4.90%
2009 -2.28%
2010 -1.86%
2011 -0.81%
2012 1.00%
2013 1.78%
2014 2.54%
2015 4.75%
No need to argue this is "cherry picked." That's besides the point. My point is I'm not interested in investing in anything that has multiple years of negative to slightly positive returns.
The problem is the data in the Wiki is wrong.
It does not match Simba, nor MSCI for 2013 and other years. 1992, MSCI did NOT return 70 percent.https://www.msci.com/documents/1296102/ ... ex+FAQ.pdf
Here is the data, return is the last value
Date EAFE Standard (Large+Mid Cap)
Dec 31, 1969 100.000
Dec 31, 1970 85.872 -14%
Dec 31, 1971 108.315 26%
Dec 29, 1972 144.366 33%
Dec 31, 1973 120.087 -17%
Dec 31, 1974 89.348 -26%
Dec 31, 1975 117.235 31%
Dec 31, 1976 116.809 0%
Dec 30, 1977 133.879 15%
Dec 29, 1978 172.590 29%
Dec 31, 1979 175.723 2%
Dec 31, 1980 209.132 19%
Dec 31, 1981 198.987 -5%
Dec 31, 1982 189.778 -5%
Dec 30, 1983 229.467 21%
Dec 31, 1984 240.985 5%
Dec 31, 1985 368.643 53%
Dec 31, 1986 614.894 67%
Dec 31, 1987 757.452 23%
Dec 30, 1988 959.398 27%
Dec 29, 1989 1,047.862 9%
Dec 31, 1990 788.981 -25%
Dec 31, 1991 869.354 10%
Dec 31, 1992 748.617 -14%
Dec 31, 1993 976.896 30%
Dec 30, 1994 1,037.861 6%
Dec 29, 1995 1,135.634 9%
Dec 31, 1996 1,185.565 4%
Dec 31, 1997 1,188.389 0%
Dec 31, 1998 1,405.039 18%
Dec 31, 1999 1,760.040 25%
Dec 29, 2000 1,492.407 -15%
Dec 31, 2001 1,154.959 -23%
Dec 31, 2002 952.653 -18%
Dec 31, 2003 1,288.769 35%
Dec 31, 2004 1,515.476 18%
Dec 30, 2005 1,680.127 11%
Dec 29, 2006 2,074.476 23%
Dec 31, 2007 2,253.357 9%
Dec 31, 2008 1,237.420 -45%
Dec 31, 2009 1,580.767 28%
Dec 31, 2010 1,658.296 5%
Dec 30, 2011 1,412.554 -15%
Dec 31, 2012 1,604.005 14%
Dec 31, 2013 1,915.603 19%
Dec 31, 2014 1,774.888 -7%
Dec 31, 2015 1,716.275 -3%
Dec 30, 2016 1,684.002 -2%
Dec 29, 2017 2,050.792 22%
Dec 31, 2018 1,719.878 -16%
Dec 31, 2019 2,036.941 18%
Dec 31, 2020 2,147.525 5%
Dec 31, 2021 2,336.068 9%
Dec 30, 2022 1,943.925 -17%
Dec 29, 2023 2,236.161 15%
Dec 31, 2024 2,261.808 1%
https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search Set annual returns, download data, calculate percentage change. I will alert the moderator.
"Owning the stock market over the long term is a winner's game. Attempting to beat the market is a loser's game. ..Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack." Jack Bogle
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
All right, bet. https://testfol.io/?s=33uErALBXv4JazzTime wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 6:51 pm I'm still waiting for someone to show me the decade (say, starting in 1980, not 1900) where a general purpose Int'l fund outperformed the US SP500. I gave up on Int'l funds in the 90's when it became apparent to me that my Int'l funds were a waste of time and I never looked back.
Sure, some small country EM fund can have a great year - e.g., up 100%. But what did it do the next three years? Picking an EM fund is like picking a US fund manager based on last year's return. It almost never works out.
1998 to 2013, 16 years.
DFEVX (EM value): +12.89% CAGR
VINIX (S&P500): +4.19% CAGR
Do US valuations kinda look like 1998? Yeah they do. Don't think this cannot repeat. US stock market has a lot of ~16 to 18 year periods where you get returns like this.
There are no guarantees, only probabilities.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Ha ha! An emerging market fund! Unfortunately, DFEVX return over the last 15 years is 4%, so again not interested. That's me. Those who want to gamble on emerging markets, go for it. As I've said many times on this forum, there are lots of investment choices. No one is right or wrong. Pick the one that best meets your goals.grap0013 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 10:26 amAll right, bet. https://testfol.io/?s=33uErALBXv4JazzTime wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 6:51 pm I'm still waiting for someone to show me the decade (say, starting in 1980, not 1900) where a general purpose Int'l fund outperformed the US SP500. I gave up on Int'l funds in the 90's when it became apparent to me that my Int'l funds were a waste of time and I never looked back.
Sure, some small country EM fund can have a great year - e.g., up 100%. But what did it do the next three years? Picking an EM fund is like picking a US fund manager based on last year's return. It almost never works out.
1998 to 2013, 16 years.
DFEVX (EM value): +12.89% CAGR
VINIX (S&P500): +4.19% CAGR
Do US valuations kinda look like 1998? Yeah they do. Don't think this cannot repeat. US stock market has a lot of ~16 to 18 year periods where you get returns like this.
The difficulty with jazz is there are too many notes. (Borrowed from Emperor's critique in Amadeus)
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Just curious: do you invest in all the 500 S&P 500 companies, or do you exclude those with bad returns ?
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
To each their own! However, I did just show you a 16 year period with 4 percent returns for the S&P 500 but you avoid EM for past 15 years due to 4% returns lol.JazzTime wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 1:02 pmHa ha! An emerging market fund! Unfortunately, DFEVX return over the last 15 years is 4%, so again not interested. That's me. Those who want to gamble on emerging markets, go for it. As I've said many times on this forum, there are lots of investment choices. No one is right or wrong. Pick the one that best meets your goals.grap0013 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 10:26 am
All right, bet. https://testfol.io/?s=33uErALBXv4
1998 to 2013, 16 years.
DFEVX (EM value): +12.89% CAGR
VINIX (S&P500): +4.19% CAGR
Do US valuations kinda look like 1998? Yeah they do. Don't think this cannot repeat. US stock market has a lot of ~16 to 18 year periods where you get returns like this.
There are no guarantees, only probabilities.
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
4% over 15 years would be an improvement on the US from 1966-1982 which saw negative returnsJazzTime wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 1:02 pmHa ha! An emerging market fund! Unfortunately, DFEVX return over the last 15 years is 4%, so again not interested. That's me. Those who want to gamble on emerging markets, go for it. As I've said many times on this forum, there are lots of investment choices. No one is right or wrong. Pick the one that best meets your goals.grap0013 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 10:26 am
All right, bet. https://testfol.io/?s=33uErALBXv4
1998 to 2013, 16 years.
DFEVX (EM value): +12.89% CAGR
VINIX (S&P500): +4.19% CAGR
Do US valuations kinda look like 1998? Yeah they do. Don't think this cannot repeat. US stock market has a lot of ~16 to 18 year periods where you get returns like this.
Why do you think the US is immune to poor performance?
2000-2013 was also negative for the US
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
You may have missed the point. I wouldn't "diversify" into a stock or fund that has performed poorly over a period of 5, 10, or 15 years. That would be "deworsification." If I have funds to invest and I can choose between MF/ETF A or B, where A has a much superior track record vs B, why would I invest in B?
In my portfolio, I endeavor to have stocks, MF's and ETF's with good returns. Those that perform poorly or mediocre get weeded out pretty quickly. One doesn't need to own all 500 companies. In fact, if you buy the index, you are heavily weighted in the top 10. That may be a good thing, or possibly not.
In my taxable portfolio, I have about 30 stocks plus some MF's and ETF's. A very large chunk is AAPL and PG. Some things are there for historical (or is that hysterical?) reasons. I rarely sell because the cap gains are too big and I hate to voluntarily incur more taxable income. If I were starting out today, I would probably own two or three index ETF's plus a few stocks to keep my interest. Back when I started investing in the late 70's, there weren't many choices. Now there are too many choices and it's hard to differentiate among them.
The difficulty with jazz is there are too many notes. (Borrowed from Emperor's critique in Amadeus)
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
So that rules out US stocksJazzTime wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 3:26 pmYou may have missed the point. I wouldn't "diversify" into a stock or fund that has performed poorly over a period of 5, 10, or 15 years. That would be "deworsification." If I have funds to invest and I can choose between MF/ETF A or B, where A has a much superior track record vs B, why would I invest in B?Thesaints wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 1:38 pm
Just curious: do you invest in all the 500 S&P 500 companies, or do you exclude those with bad returns ?
What are you investing in then?
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
There were probably some days where that was true, but I believe the S&P turned the corner at the end of 2012 if you use Jan 2000 as start date. I think the better picture is Jan 2000 through March 2009 as the market was down 42% (even with dividends reinvested) for an 8.25 year stretch of time. There probably aren't many people under 45 who can honestly say they had real money invested in 2000 and watched their equity piece go down 40% over 8+ years and stand strong. We have threads pop up on here relentlessly for 10% corrections over three weeks.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
I never suggested the US is immune to poor performance. Having invested since the late 70's, I've lived through several periods of poor performance and, yet, have done quite well.
My only point was I don't need to invest in an international fund to improve my portfolio performance. There are many large US companies that sell worldwide. That's plenty for me to choose from. That's my personal choice to meet my goals.
See my earlier post where I mentioned FSPSX (Fid Int'l Index), which tracks the MSCI EAFE index, whose performance since inception (1997) was 5.2%. That's one example. I'm sure there are some funds that did better and some that did worse. If someone wants to invest in an international fund to meet their personal goals, that's perfectly fine.
The difficulty with jazz is there are too many notes. (Borrowed from Emperor's critique in Amadeus)
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
They do bring diversification benefits - if you follow the case for Intl, not repeating since it's discussed on that thread. I was simply making case why Bogle said 20% because he concluded if you do that much it can't hurt, and from that perspective may be some currency diversification can't hurt either if that's a concern for a US investor. It should be IMO, because USD has had such a run and we maybe so much dependent on it from every angle as our lives are so dependent on it doing well. Some diversification away from USD can't hurt and for that may be better to get that from equities investing through foreign companies, in the sense you get any other benefits too. This is what experts suggest.jdibber wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 7:56 pmI agree with this 100%, but if the purpose for holding Intl equities is for global diversification based on the companies within the fund, not diversification on speculation of the USD, then what are these companies actually bringing to the "diversification table"?Elysium wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 6:34 pm The one thing though is currency exposure, when Intl tends to do well, a major part of it has to do with USD weakness, that may be one reason to hold some international diversification, just in case the USD cannot forever stay on top, then we want some of that.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Imagine it's March 2013 "I wouldn't "diversify" into a stock or fund that has performed poorly over a period of 5, 10, or 15 years." With that logic you wouldn't have invested in US stocks. It's ok if you are uncomfortable holding EM or dev ex-US. Totally fine. But I think it's more about feelings than logic and that's ok.JazzTime wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 3:26 pm
You may have missed the point. I wouldn't "diversify" into a stock or fund that has performed poorly over a period of 5, 10, or 15 years. That would be "deworsification." If I have funds to invest and I can choose between MF/ETF A or B, where A has a much superior track record vs B, why would I invest in B?

16 year returns.
DFEVX (EM value): +12.89% CAGR
VINIX (S&P500): +4.19% CAGR
There are no guarantees, only probabilities.
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
I'll need to see more from the poster who bumped the thread to move off of my initial presumption that it is an AI bot. 

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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
No, that wasn't your point. You clearly said that international is "diworsification" and that the only thing that matters are 5-10-15 year returns over the last 15 years only, apparently.JazzTime wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 3:42 pmI never suggested the US is immune to poor performance. Having invested since the late 70's, I've lived through several periods of poor performance and, yet, have done quite well.
My only point was I don't need to invest in an international fund to improve my portfolio performance. There are many large US companies that sell worldwide. That's plenty for me to choose from. That's my personal choice to meet my goals.
See my earlier post where I mentioned FSPSX (Fid Int'l Index), which tracks the MSCI EAFE index, whose performance since inception (1997) was 5.2%. That's one example. I'm sure there are some funds that did better and some that did worse. If someone wants to invest in an international fund to meet their personal goals, that's perfectly fine.
US stocks will also be "diworsification" at times, and given that the CAPE is near 40 right now, you should expect much lower returns given what happened last time when CAPE was around these levels back in 2000.
The reason your cherry picked date for exUS was so poor is precisely because valuations were high, yet people ignore this fact.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Joe Public wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 6:43 pm I'll need to see more from the poster who bumped the thread to move off of my initial presumption that it is an AI bot.![]()
One post and this necro was it...

It's 106 miles to Chicago, we've got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses. Hit it.
Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
This forum is probably the only place around where you can hold stocks of 3500+ US companies with VTSAX and be considered 'undiversified'.
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Because that same situation led to retirement failure in the past. Adding another 3500+ stocks from outside the US prevented that failure completely.Pepper11 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 11:28 pm This forum is probably the only place around where you can hold stocks of 3500+ US companies with VTSAX and be considered 'undiversified'.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Ironically, apparently VTSAX is officially labeled a "non-diversified" fund currently, because of the excessive weight of a few top stocks.Pepper11 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 11:28 pm This forum is probably the only place around where you can hold stocks of 3500+ US companies with VTSAX and be considered 'undiversified'.