1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

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forager1945
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1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by forager1945 »

Hello.
As I mentioned in the subject line, I am 80, (my wife is 73); neither of us has ever invested in the stock market. We are concerned about the instability of things in Washington [unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek]. It appears to be a very unstable economic environment.
In my preparation to learn how to invest, I've noted, many times, the admonition not to time the market. But I don't think we're doing that, as we are not invested yet--not trying to choose what is hot, etc. We are just concerned about the lunacy in Washington--all of which seems completely unnecessary. Am I wrong in thinking that, as an elderly inexperienced investor starting now, I might be tossing currency into a fire, hoping it won't burn? At our ages, we won't have the time to regain it.
Our financial goal: to increase what we have a little by investing, but mostly we want to protect what we have as a hedge against inflation.
We own our house and cars, have 550K in cash, 450K in laddered CDs, and 300K in 401Ks. Our mutual income, primarily Social Security, is greater by 1/3 than our monthly expenses. As I mentioned already, I want to protect what we have, especially given my wife is seven years younger than I and may survive me by many years.
If we decide to take the index fund plunge, I will provide as much detail as needed. I've already done a lot of study on a conservative 3-index fund Vanguard profile. But for now, I'd like to restrict my inquiry to the appropriateness of entering the investment world now, given what I described above.
Please go easy. I'm new.
Steve
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by LadyGeek »

Welcome! I'd like to mention that discussion of tariffs or trade wars is off-topic (not permitted) in this forum. Please see this post by the site owner: Re: A non-political discussion on tariff's impact [Locked with explanation]

Instability in Washington has been going on for quite some time. The only differences are the underlying reason. This just happens to be the most recent one. For perspective, see this sticky: A time to EVALUATE your jitters, which was started in 2011.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by rkhusky »

There is always instability in the markets and turmoil somewhere in the world. That’s why it’s impossible to predict what stocks and interest rates are going to do.

If you can’t handle that volatility, you shouldn’t invest in stocks. But if you really want to, perhaps because of FOMO, use a balanced or all-in-one fund with a low stock percentage that hides a lot of the market volatility.

Vanguard has their LifeStrategy Conservative Growth or Income funds, or Target Retirement Income, or the active, but low cost, Wellesley fund. (My 80 yo mother is in LS Cons Growth with a good chunk of cash, that works out to 30/70)
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

I would tread cautiously since, yes, I think you’d be tossing currency into the fire hoping it won’t burn.

The way things read to me you’re not ready yet.

[Unnecessary political commentary removed. Moderator Pops1860]

Also, by never having invested in stocks over the last 60 years, you’re a market timer.

I think the best thing you can do is find a TRUSTED financial advisor and do what you’re told. If you don’t know one, then stay on your current course that’s worked out okay over the last 60 years.
Being wrong compounds forever.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by Tamalak »

forager1945 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:27 pmI might be tossing currency into a fire, hoping it won't burn?
This is precisely what stock investing is, regardless of your age or whether there's lunacy anywhere.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by RickBoglehead »

If I were the OP, I wouldn't invest a dime.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by Cyclesafe »

With a 73 YO healthy female spouse I'd get only slightly more aggressive. You are indeed timing the market, but even experienced investors can get niggly when things get frothy. And they are always, always frothy. As suggested, go with a conservative, low-cost balanced fund and stop watching the news.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by mrmass »

Have you considered short term treasuries? You can buy those paying 4.2ish% and if you're in a state that pays income tax you don't pay tax on the interest.

I don't ladder but I buy 1-3 month treasuries throughout the year, and like saving on the state income tax.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by dbr »

I don't think you should be buying stocks, or if you do not more than 20% of your total investment and then only if you could tolerate losing a significant fraction of that at some point. I do think you should be evaluating how you plan to pay for old age care.

You could consider owning some TIPS, such as a short term TIPS fund. I say fund because it makes sense to me but evidently a lot of people buy TIPS funds and then get upset when they do something people didn't completely understand from the start.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by vriguy1 »

what does the 401k hold? You've a fair amount of cash 500K, consider 100-150K in short term treasury bonds and 100-150K in short term TIPS (VGSH and VTIP are the respective ETFs at Vanguard, as an example).
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by mhadden1 »

forager1945 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:27 pm We own our house and cars, have 550K in cash, 450K in laddered CDs, and 300K in 401Ks. Our mutual income, primarily Social Security, is greater by 1/3 than our monthly expenses. As I mentioned already, I want to protect what we have, especially given my wife is seven years younger than I and may survive me by many years.
Welcome to the forum! It's a great place to get information about investing, and all sorts of of things.

Luckily, it looks like to me you are already in good shape to weather storms. I will point out that there is financial research that suggests that a certain percentage of stocks in a portfolio, around 20-30%, can help keep up with inflation. This is a risk that everyone is exposed to, apart from the risk of market crashes and such.

If you post the details of your holdings, forum members will help you evaluate your situation. Good luck!
Retired 12/31/2015, age 58 years 77 days (but who's counting?)
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by Tom_T »

You're 80. You've seen a lot. Hasn't most of your life been "unsettled times"?
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by rkhusky »

And, remember Covid? Look at a 10-year return chart for the US market. You will see a sharp spike downward in early 2020 and then a quick recovery.

Now look at 2022 in the chart. Looks much worse. What was going on in the world in 2022 that was much worse than Covid in 2020? (2022 could have been aftershocks from Covid, but who knows?)

Do you think you can predict stock market performance by looking at momentary turmoil in the world? Those that got out of the market during 2020 and got back in in 2021 had a rude shock in 2022. Those that stayed out for longer missed some significant gains.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by Longdog »

At this point in your life, there is no reason to start investing in the stock market, unless it is for the benefit of your eventual heirs. You've made it this far without doing so, so what has changed?
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by goblue100 »

forager1945 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:27 pm As I mentioned already, I want to protect what we have, especially given my wife is seven years younger than I and may survive me by many years.
If we decide to take the index fund plunge, I will provide as much detail as needed. I've already done a lot of study on a conservative 3-index fund Vanguard profile. But for now, I'd like to restrict my inquiry to the appropriateness of entering the investment world now, given what I described above.
Please go easy. I'm new.
Steve
Going for some growth is probably prudent, as you rightly point out your wife is somewhat younger than you are. My suggestion would be to keep things simple, as your spouse may not want to manage finances if you predecease her. Perhaps a Vanguard life strategy fund:
https://investor.vanguard.com/investmen ... tegy-funds

Either the income or conservative growth fund would seem to be good matches to your goals.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by federal dinosaur »

forager1945,
I cannot remember a time when "instability" of some sort or another was absent in Washington.

You have done well in this great country. Congratulations!

Your ability to take risk seems very small/nonexistent. I would take a pass on the stock market.

fd
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by WillRetire »

Longdog wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:18 am At this point in your life, there is no reason to start investing in the stock market, unless it is for the benefit of your eventual heirs. You've made it this far without doing so, so what has changed?
+1 Agree with this.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by Sandtrap »

forager1945 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:27 pm Hello.
As I mentioned in the subject line, I am 80, (my wife is 73); neither of us has ever invested in the stock market. We are concerned about the instability of things in Washington [unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek]. It appears to be a very unstable economic environment.
In my preparation to learn how to invest, I've noted, many times, the admonition not to time the market. But I don't think we're doing that, as we are not invested yet--not trying to choose what is hot, etc. We are just concerned about the lunacy in Washington--all of which seems completely unnecessary. Am I wrong in thinking that, as an elderly inexperienced investor starting now, I might be tossing currency into a fire, hoping it won't burn? At our ages, we won't have the time to regain it.
Our financial goal: to increase what we have a little by investing, but mostly we want to protect what we have as a hedge against inflation.
We own our house and cars, have 550K in cash, 450K in laddered CDs, and 300K in 401Ks. Our mutual income, primarily Social Security, is greater by 1/3 than our monthly expenses. As I mentioned already, I want to protect what we have, especially given my wife is seven years younger than I and may survive me by many years.
If we decide to take the index fund plunge, I will provide as much detail as needed. I've already done a lot of study on a conservative 3-index fund Vanguard profile. But for now, I'd like to restrict my inquiry to the appropriateness of entering the investment world now, given what I described above.
Please go easy. I'm new.
Steve
Our financial goal: to increase what we have a little by investing, but mostly we want to protect what we have as a hedge against inflation.
We own our house and cars, have 550K in cash, 450K in laddered CDs, and 300K in 401Ks. Our mutual income, primarily Social Security, is greater by 1/3 than our monthly expenses. As I mentioned already, I want to protect what we have,
welcome steve,

ponderings, and questions for you:
1
GIven your data and concerns, you don't need to do anything different than you do right now.
a) you can diversify your "cash" further by using laddered Treasury and/or CD's (new issue, not funds). But, not knowing your short term, health needs, need for larger emergency money, etc, that is unknown but an option.
2
You've already established a comfort zone / safety net for yourself. And one well. Why do you want to increase risk, volatility, worry, stress, by investing in "funds"??
3
You mention, "hedge against inflation". There is short term transitory spikes in cost of living and longer term inflation cycles and trends, etc. Which are you concerned with at age 80?
4
Do you have a pension (company, institutional, gov't, military, other) income stream that you haven't mentioned here?
5
Have you looked at this before?
https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/f ... hest-yield
6
Use any of these portfolio projection tools for your needs.
Engaging Data Site:
https://engaging-data.com/early-retirem ... and-tools/
TestFolio Website:
https://testfol.io/
Portfolio Visualizer site:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... allocation

I hope this is helpful for you.
I took the liberty of removing the narrative to focus on "the numbers" for clarity.
A "portfolio review" by forum senior reviewers would be great to do. YOu can follow the "portfolio review format" in the forum wiki.
Portfolio Review Request
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewt ... =1&t=6212


j
Last edited by Sandtrap on Tue Feb 04, 2025 9:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by cjcerny »

I agree with everyone else that there isn't a compelling reason to invest in stocks at this point in your life. If you decide to, I would be very conservative about what you invest in and how much of your money you invest. I suggest investing only your 401k money in Vanguard's LifeStrategy Income fund. Run with that for a few years and see how it feels. If it feels good, consider putting some of your non-401k money in that same fund. If it doesn't feel good, sell it and go back to CD's and whatever investments feel better to you.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by imflyboy »

If I’m reading your post right, your SS covers your expenses and you have 1/3 left over. Why take on any additional risk?
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by retiredjg »

Welcome to the forum. :happy

A good time or bad time cannot be predicted, regardless of what we think about "current instability". If you want to invest, now is as good a time as any.

Adding a small percentage of stocks should actually decrease the risk of your current portfolio rather than increase it. I know that is unexpected, but if that makes sense to you, you might want to add some stocks. Something simple - 1 fund - total stock market or 500 index.

Presumably, it works this way because a small percentage of stocks (20% to 30%) will help the portfolio keep up with inflation.

The question is how would you feel if we then went into a stock market crash. Do you believe you could watch your portfolio decline in value 8% to 9% and not be worried about it?

If you think this would be stressful, I suggest you do not do it - stay just like you are. In retirement, your money should give you comfort, not stress. And it appears to me there is plenty of money even if you don't add any stocks at this point.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by delamer »

imflyboy wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 9:51 am If I’m reading your post right, your SS covers your expenses and you have 1/3 left over. Why take on any additional risk?
That may be fine in the short term. But the OP is concerned about the finances of his considerably younger wife if he dies first

First thing is to determine what his wife’s Social Security benefit will be if she survives him. Probably, it is the larger of the two benefits that each is receiving now. But that can be verified.

Then determine what his wife’s expenses will look like after he’s gone. Some things will obviously decrease, like food and medical premiums. But others, like expenses for the house — if she stays in it — will not drop significantly.

Once they know how much she’ll need to withdraw from their portfolio to cover her expenses, they can make better decisions about their asset allocation. A low withdrawal rate might mean that no stocks are needed. A higher rate may need that they need to take some equity risk.

I also wondered what’s in the 401(k). There may be some equities there already.

Finally, long-term care is a potentially very expensive wild card. Most retirees probably should have at least a small equity allocation to keep up with those costs. A 73-year old woman could easily live another 20 years.
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. - Alexandre Dumas, fils
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forager1945
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by forager1945 »

Wow!
I'd like to thank everyone for replying-- a lot to think about.
While I'm 80, I'm not a particularly risk-adverse person. I could handle the expected ups-and-downs of the stock market if I held stock funds at a 20-30% ratio to bonds.

[Unnecessary political commentary removed. Moderator Pops1860]


Again, thanks to everyone for their very thoughtful comments.
Steve
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by rob »

The right answers are above but... (apologies as net post have no inflections - not been nasty)... Why start now? If you have not invested in the market up to this point , why all of a sudden is a long term investment in stock interesting? How much long term do you expect?
| Rob | Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by an_asker »

RickBoglehead wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 7:35 am If I were the OP, I wouldn't invest a dime.
Absolutely agree!

Also, is there a specific reason why no one (I hope I didn't miss anyone) asked about kids/(in)dependents? And whether the reason OP wants to get into the stock market only to support his spouse and not leave a legacy/inheritance of some sort?
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by pwesben »

Agree with most, that caution is advised.
That said I’m 78 (wife 62) our retirement funds are in Vang Wellington (VWENX). All invested in US. The problem I see with the Lifestrategy and Target Retirement funds is they have a relatively large part invested in international stocks and bonds. International has been a consistent drag on returns.

VWENX IS 65% stocks/36% bonds all in US. A more conservative option is Vanguard Wellesley (VWIAX), they are 35%stocks/65% bonds. These are the two choices I would recommend especially for the 401k. Or mix and match to get the stock ratio you desire.

Go slow, you have all the time in the world!
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by imflyboy »

delamer wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 10:31 am
imflyboy wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 9:51 am If I’m reading your post right, your SS covers your expenses and you have 1/3 left over. Why take on any additional risk?
That may be fine in the short term. But the OP is concerned about the finances of his considerably younger wife if he dies first

First thing is to determine what his wife’s Social Security benefit will be if she survives him. Probably, it is the larger of the two benefits that each is receiving now. But that can be verified.

Then determine what his wife’s expenses will look like after he’s gone. Some things will obviously decrease, like food and medical premiums. But others, like expenses for the house — if she stays in it — will not drop significantly.

Once they know how much she’ll need to withdraw from their portfolio to cover her expenses, they can make better decisions about their asset allocation. A low withdrawal rate might mean that no stocks are needed. A higher rate may need that they need to take some equity risk.

I also wondered what’s in the 401(k). There may be some equities there already.

Finally, long-term care is a potentially very expensive wild card. Most retirees probably should have at least a small equity allocation to keep up with those costs. A 73-year old woman could easily live another 20 years.
Their income exceeds their expenses by 1/3. They’re presumably saving a significant portion of their income. While the OP says he’s not risk adverse, his concerns about putting money in a volatile asset with uncertainty says otherwise. Additionally, he and his wife have never experienced a market downturn based on his comments, which might lead to errors like selling after a sharp pullback? It’s one thing to say you can handle the volatility, it’s another to watch your portfolio get hammered day after day without knowing how much further it’ll go down. Maybe building out the bond or cd ladder with the money parked in cash could offer the ability to grow their wealth with less stress and uncertainty? I do agree, that figuring out what his wife’s expenses will look like after he’s gone would help define the amount of risk they need to take on.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by Randomstroller »

OP,

The stock market has experienced the following declines in this century:

-34% in March 2020; -57% in March 2009; -49% in October 2002.
(Source: visualcapitalist.com)

As you well know, stocks fell more than 57% during the Great Depression (was it 80% or so?), although "some would say" that there are safeguards in place now we didn't have then (true, but - haha - ok).

Based on what you have told us, If you feel you simply must invest in stocks, I suggest only using funds you can afford to lose. Stocks can be very volatile, and when we hit a market downdraft, the temptation to sell low may be overwhelming.

Why not instead look into brokered CDs, such as those offered by Vanguard and other brokerages? Their customer service is much maligned, so you might also investigate what Charles Schwab and Fidelity offer. If State income taxes are a concern, Treasuries offer competitive rates as well.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by delamer »

imflyboy wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 12:05 pm
delamer wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 10:31 am

That may be fine in the short term. But the OP is concerned about the finances of his considerably younger wife if he dies first

First thing is to determine what his wife’s Social Security benefit will be if she survives him. Probably, it is the larger of the two benefits that each is receiving now. But that can be verified.

Then determine what his wife’s expenses will look like after he’s gone. Some things will obviously decrease, like food and medical premiums. But others, like expenses for the house — if she stays in it — will not drop significantly.

Once they know how much she’ll need to withdraw from their portfolio to cover her expenses, they can make better decisions about their asset allocation. A low withdrawal rate might mean that no stocks are needed. A higher rate may need that they need to take some equity risk.

I also wondered what’s in the 401(k). There may be some equities there already.

Finally, long-term care is a potentially very expensive wild card. Most retirees probably should have at least a small equity allocation to keep up with those costs. A 73-year old woman could easily live another 20 years.
Their income exceeds their expenses by 1/3. They’re presumably saving a significant portion of their income. While the OP says he’s not risk adverse, his concerns about putting money in a volatile asset with uncertainty says otherwise. Additionally, he and his wife have never experienced a market downturn based on his comments, which might lead to errors like selling after a sharp pullback? It’s one thing to say you can handle the volatility, it’s another to watch your portfolio get hammered day after day without knowing how much further it’ll go down. Maybe building out the bond or cd ladder with the money parked in cash could offer the ability to grow their wealth with less stress and uncertainty? I do agree, that figuring out what his wife’s expenses will look like after he’s gone would help define the amount of risk they need to take on.
You make a good point regarding him not being risk averse based on his (lack of) experience.

Finding out at age 82 (for example) that you can’t handle a stock bear market could be really painful.
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. - Alexandre Dumas, fils
MathWizard
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by MathWizard »

At 80, I would be very cautious.

My 80 year old MIL was visiting and heard me discussing
investing with my son. Her income was a small SS check
some CDs earning 2% , and farmland that provided about $25/yr
through sharecropping.

She asked about whether she should invest in stocks. This was 2007,and I earned about 11% . I told her that she already had enough risk with farming.

The next year stocks took a huge dive in the Great Recession.
I didn't know that would happen, as I lost 50% from Oct 2008 to March 2009, but I was prepared for that loss, she would not have been.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by stuper1 »

You mentioned having $550k in cash. One thing you should do for sure is get most of that money into a good money market fund (like VUSXX at Vanguard, or similar) so it is earning a competitive rate of interest. I believe VUSXX is currently earning about 4.25% per year, which is above the inflation rate. This is a very important move for you to keep pace with or even beat inflation.

Another thing you need to consider is how much Social Security income your wife will get when you die (assuming you die first), and how will that compare to her spending needs? The surviving spouse will receive the larger of the two current Social Security checks, but will not receive both checks. The great thing about Social Security income is that it adjusts for inflation each year.

You didn't say what your 401k is invested in. One thing you could consider is moving all your 401k money to some kind of balanced index fund (like say VBIAX at Vanguard, or similar). VBIAX is 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, so this would give you $180k in stocks, so this would mean that 14% of your $1.3M portfolio is in stocks. This will give you some inflation protection going forward, and will be very simple to deal with, as VBIAX rebalances itself, and you don't need to do anything. Also, any changes you make within your 401k will have no current-year tax consequences. Another alternative would be something like VASGX (LifeStrategy Growth Fund) which has 80% in stocks and 20% in bonds. If you went with that, then you would have $240k in stocks in your 401k, which would mean that 19% of your $1.3M portfolio is in stocks. This should give you even better inflation protection, and is still considered a very conservative portfolio since the other 81% of your portfolio would be mainly in CDs, money market funds, and a little in a broad bond index fund.
A 10-20% allocation to gold has helped with the sequence of returns problem. Some gold held physically is also good insurance against the all-digital-assets problem.
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by trueblueky »

RickBoglehead wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 7:35 am If I were the OP, I wouldn't invest a dime.
At least, wait until we see what happens with tax law. Get that uncertainty out of the way. Meanwhile, CDs are paying ok.
sambb
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by sambb »

I don’t really see what is unsettled. We’ve had a great run for 10 years with various different political parties in charge and a pandemic. We’re probably due for a slower 10’years ahead but no one knows. People have said since as long as I remember that things weren’t going well. I would invest 20 percent in total world and just enjoy the ride up or down but I don’t understand the premise so well.
Fallible
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by Fallible »

forager1945 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:27 pm Hello.
As I mentioned in the subject line, I am 80, (my wife is 73); neither of us has ever invested in the stock market. We are concerned about the instability of things in Washington [unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek]. It appears to be a very unstable economic environment.
In my preparation to learn how to invest, I've noted, many times, the admonition not to time the market. But I don't think we're doing that, as we are not invested yet--not trying to choose what is hot, etc. We are just concerned about the lunacy in Washington--all of which seems completely unnecessary. Am I wrong in thinking that, as an elderly inexperienced investor starting now, I might be tossing currency into a fire, hoping it won't burn? At our ages, we won't have the time to regain it.
Our financial goal: to increase what we have a little by investing, but mostly we want to protect what we have as a hedge against inflation.

We own our house and cars, have 550K in cash, 450K in laddered CDs, and 300K in 401Ks. Our mutual income, primarily Social Security, is greater by 1/3 than our monthly expenses. As I mentioned already, I want to protect what we have, especially given my wife is seven years younger than I and may survive me by many years.
If we decide to take the index fund plunge, I will provide as much detail as needed. I've already done a lot of study on a conservative 3-index fund Vanguard profile. But for now, I'd like to restrict my inquiry to the appropriateness of entering the investment world now, given what I described above.

Please go easy. I'm new.
Steve
You are not market timing, which is predicting the right time to get into the market AND the right time to get out, the goal being right both times. It's for the pros, who often get it wrong.

Your overall concern in the current environment is risk (though it always is in the uncertainty of any market environment), which includes your ability, willingness (risk tolerance in market downturns), and need to take risk. All this is covered in the wiki's pages on “Asset allocation” and “Risk tolerance.”

Another suggestion is to read Jane Bryant Quinn’s book on retirement How to Make Your Money Last, and, in your case, page 233, “Risk And the Older Investor,” which begins:
When you’re pushing 80 or 85, should you still be in stocks? The answer depends on your temperament, financial resources, and when you’re likely to need the money.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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Youngblood
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by Youngblood »

I don't think you should start investing in equities at 80 without any prior experience.
I would stick to fixed income with varied duration with a maximum of no more than six years.
Loss in the market that could happen at any time is painful. If that did happen, I can imagine you saying: Why did
I do that?
"I made my money by selling too soon." | Bernard M. Baruch
lws
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by lws »

Do what you are doing now.
Better to play it safe at this stage of the game.
stuper1
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by stuper1 »

I disagree with everyone who says to keep doing what you are doing. You came here looking for advice on how to improve your portfolio, which is a great attitude at any age.

To me, there is clearly at least one thing you should be looking at, which is the $550k you have in "cash". Is that just sitting in a bank account earning something like 0.1% interest? If so, you should really consider getting most of that money into a money market fund say at Vanguard or Fidelity that is earning something like 4.2% interest. In my view, that is the minimum you should consider doing.

A separate issue is whether you want to purchase some stocks in your 401k to help keep up with inflation in the years ahead, especially if the reduced Social Security amount on your death won't be enough for your wife's expenses.
A 10-20% allocation to gold has helped with the sequence of returns problem. Some gold held physically is also good insurance against the all-digital-assets problem.
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Youngblood
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by Youngblood »

retiredjg wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2025 10:57 am Really cool avatar Youngblood! :D
Thank you. BTW, I really enjoy reading your posts.
:-)
"I made my money by selling too soon." | Bernard M. Baruch
Beat Farmer
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Re: 1st post: 80 year old newbie with concerns about entering the market during these unsettled times

Post by Beat Farmer »

“Our financial goal: to increase what we have a little by investing, but mostly we want to protect what we have as a hedge against inflation.”

Have you considered I Bonds or TIPS?
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