To retire or not to retire gut-check

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oldtechguy
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To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by oldtechguy »

Long time forum lurker here. It amazes me that this forum has so many smart people offering very verbose advice when folks ask. So hoping for some of that sage wisdom for myself with the below.

I am thinking of retiring or figuring out how to find a way to semi-retire this year. I have had this plan for a while but I was targeting for when I turn 55. Retiring this year is 3 years earlier than I planned. I have been working full time since I was 22 with over the last two decades working for one of the big tech companies. It is not important which big tech company - they have all turned into pretty terrible places to work in the past few years as they look to fire (without severance) their long term FTEs to make room in the budget for AI. I have not been fired - yet - but at this stage of life and career I do not feel like spending every day looking over my shoulder and waiting for some random hammer to drop on me. This is not how I envisioned the end of my career would be, but here we are.

So onward and upward. The below is a breakdown of my assets and net worth. I did my best to follow the template on the forum.

Debt: Primary Mortgage: $230K Principal. Year 5 of 30-year fixed at 3%. Credit cards all paid in full every month. No other debt.
Tax Filing Status: Married Filing Jointly (wife is 49) with 3 Dependent children (15, 18, and 20).
Tax Rate: 22%-ish% effective Federal rate, ??% State. I reside in a fairly 'moderate' income/capital gains tax state.
State of Residence: rather not say but somewhere in the middle...
Age: 52
Desired Asset allocation: 80% stocks / 20% bonds
Desired International allocation: 0% of stocks

Cash Portfolios:
Cash Account #1: $1.3M (90% of which is one single stock - yeah, I know I need to do something about this)
Cash Account #2: $1.2M ($650K VTSAX, $130K VITAX, $120K VIMAX, $100K VWALX, $200K, VMFXX)

Retirement Accounts:
401K: $1.85M ($880K S&P Index Fund, $500K Russell 2K Index, $365K Bond Index Fund, $100K BigTech Single Stock, $9K Russell 10K Index)
IRA #1 (mine): $400K ($320K VTSAX, $80K VBTLX)
IRA #2 (mine - inherited): $25K ($19K VTSAX, $6K VBTLX)
IRA #3 (wife): $6.5K ($6.5K VTI)

HSA: $47K ($22K S&P Index fund, $22K Megacap tech fund, $3K cash)

Checking Account: $35K

Farmland:
Tract of land (crops) - cash rented: $1.2M approximate assessed value (could be more or less - assessed in 2017 at about $1M)

Private Land Investment:
Land Fund investment: $70K (probably my biggest regret - money is locked and illiquid. May take decades to see a return on principal and hopefully some sort of profit)

Variable Life Insurance Policies: $50K
One for me and one for my wife. Anticipate combined value will be about $50K when the policies go to term which will happen when I turn 55 (3 years). Current money invested in what I am sure are high-load funds that I was forced into. Like the private land investment, I regret these investments as well. Was younger and dumber then... :)

I have been tracking my cash flow and expenses closely for the past 7 or so years. In 2024, my total expense was $214K. $37K of that was paying for two kids in college (funded via their 529s) and $28K of that was paying excess income taxes due to bonuses and extra income generated from the farm cash rent and dividends collected from the case brokerage accounts. Expenses include all out of pocket medical expenses - that is, I do not use my HSA for these as I am building it up for when I am not employed. Medical expenses were about $7,700 in 2024. I did NOT make any major purchases like a car nor did we take any extravagant vacations in 2024 although we did take a few small trips which would be in that total.

On the income side, my investments across all accounts (retirement and non-retirement) equated to about $48K which for the most part I simply reinvested. The farm cash rent yielded about $32K in income. So about $80K in income generated from my portfolios and land as they stand right now.

If I were to retire, my biggest worry is health insurance. Currently I pay into an HSA and have to meet my deductible for the year but my job takes care of the rest. For at least the next 2-5 years I will need to provide coverage for 5 people. Looking beyond COBRA, ACA for an OK plan seems to be horribly expensive - like $35K - $40K/year unless I can play the subsidy game to bring that down. But - as we all know healthcare in this country is one big sh*tshow and is probably only to worsen in our lifetime.

I THINK I would need to draw about $240K starting this year to pad my need to pay for healthcare and to maintain (maybe somewhat improve) my current standard of living. I assume once my kids are graduated and out of the house with their own healthcare and stuff that will certainly help, but that is several years away so need to plan for the current reality.

If you have read this far, I would really like to know any opinion or recommendation you have with the above such as:
  • Does this seem doable or do I need to keep working for another couple years?
    Any suggestions as far as current investments - that is, a need to change things? And yes, I am very aware of my very large single stock exposure - any ideas on how to efficiently divest that such as direct indexing are welcome!
    Healthcare - I mean, I have done a fair amount of research on this - anyone have a magic bullet here, please let me know!
Thanks for reading!
AlmostThereCT
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by AlmostThereCT »

Are you planning to pay for higher education for your 3 kids?

You probably have enough either way, but that is a large variable.
bogling
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by bogling »

Will your expenses be expected to continue at over $200k a year before adding health insurance?

Have you started by running numbers initially using something like firecalc or ficalc for rough estimate and then something that can help model more particular situations, like RPM?

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tools_and_calculators

Https://firecalc.com

https://ficalc.app/

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Retiree_Portfolio_Model

Here's a quick run on ficalc with $5M @ 50/45/5 AA over 40 years expending $214k/yr (so not including farm land). Can get more specific in RPM with things like rent income and considering changing healthcare costs (including medicaire @ 65) and bridge to social security, etc.

https://ficalc.app?additionalIncome=%5B ... tantDollar
random_walker_77
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by random_walker_77 »

It'd be good to edit your post to add fund names next to the stock tickers.

So you're looking at about 6M in invested assets, and about 1/4 million in estimated annual spending? That's just about 4% so possibly ok, but a bit tight. If spending is expected to go down in a few years due to kids finishing their education and moving off your health insurance, then you're probably good, though high early spending (and a historically high stock market) might mean you're extra susceptible to "sequence of returns" risk.

The spending level suggests that you might have room to trim the fat if things go poorly. It sounds like you have approx 150K of spending (after excluding tax on investments, health care, and college), which sounds pretty high for a MCOL area.

I think you're definitely FI and have enough money to stop caring about whether you get laid off. Personally, I'd work a couple more years, but not worry too much about whether a layoff happens. Stress levels can drop a lot when you don't care too much how it goes...
oldtechguy wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2025 1:38 pm large single stock exposure - any ideas on how to efficiently divest that such as direct indexing are welcome!
Unless you're on the cusp of going from short term to long term gains, or have a portion that might get a significant tax break for meeting ESPP holding periods, the taxes are what they are. Sell it. Maybe spread it out across years. NIIT adds 3.8% to the income above 250K, and long term capital gains goes up another 5% (to 20%) at $583K. So maybe sell enough to push your income to about ~600K so that after deductions your income is at $583K

In terms of investing the funds, I think your baseline for comparison is a total stock fund like your VTI/VTSAX. It's relatively tax efficient, and its performance is pretty good (it's hard to beat the overall market for risk-adjusted returns). I don't know that direct indexing helps you all that much. You might get some tax loss harvesting in the near term but you eventually pay that back when you sell, and it adds a layer of complexity and overhead.
almostretired1965
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by almostretired1965 »

So my opinion is that it is doable, but quitting now adds a bit of risk to your situation if there is a 2008 event in the near future, a particularly acute issue given that 1/4 of your wealth is tied up in what I am guessing is your employer's stock, and if you are unable or unwilling to do something about it in short order.

I have a feeling you may be employed by my ex-employer that had a 55/15 policy that vests all RSUs if you've been with the company for 15 years and are at least 55. If that is your situation, I would hold out for 55 even if I had double your assets, unless work has become unbearable for some reason. At the very least, make them give you a severance package or at least unemployment.

Anyway, I joined my BigTech employer when I turned 53 and retired at 59. Left a lot of money on the table, but it was time. Work was actually still pretty pleasant since I was effectively coasting but performed well enough to not be in danger of getting let do. Changes in some personal circumstances made it an imperative to do something, however. Otherwise just the two of us with no dependents and college expenses.
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oldtechguy
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by oldtechguy »

AlmostThereCT wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 12:41 pm Are you planning to pay for higher education for your 3 kids?

You probably have enough either way, but that is a large variable.
Oops - forgot to add 529 information. In short, I am confident I have enough for each of my kids to pay for 100% of 8 semesters worth of any of my in-state major universities with at least partial scholarship. The 'deal' I have made with them is that is what I am in for - that is, if they wish to go to some private elite school or somewhere far away which costs more, that is on them. Much better deal than what I recall I got and am sure most in my generation had... ;)
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Watty
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by Watty »

Unless I missed it there were a few things missing from your post which you might want to add using the icon with the pencil on it to edit your post.

1) How much Social Security will you and your spouse get if you stop working today, and when do you expect to start Social Security. See this web site to see what it suggests.

https://opensocialsecurity.com/

2) It would be good to add some totals to your post. I did not add it up but it looks like it is in the ballpark of $7 million in investments. :shock:

3) How much of your expenses are your mortgage payment(without any escrow accounts)? How much home equity do you have? There are endless threads and opinions about if you should pay a mortgage off or not but if you decide to not pay off your $230K mortgage I would suggest considering $230K of your taxable accounts to be a mortgage offset fund and take it out of the rest of your retirement expense calculations.

4) You included the money paid for colleges from the 529 but you did not list the 529 as an asset in your post.

It would be good to try to figure out just what your expenses would be excluding college costs and your mortgage payment.
oldtechguy wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2025 1:38 pm Does this seem doable or do I need to keep working for another couple years?
You seem to have in the ballpark of $7 million dollars including the farmland. It that earns 3% in rent, interest, and dividends then you would get $210k a year without drawing down your portfolio. In about sen years all your kids should be launched and your expenses should go down a lot.

There are lots of details to figure out but you can retire.
oldtechguy wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2025 1:38 pm Healthcare - I mean, I have done a fair amount of research on this - anyone have a magic bullet here, please let me know!
I retired in the middle of the year so that 18 months of COBRA, which we preferred, and that would get us through the rest of that year and all of the next year and I could then start an ACA policy in January. That meant that we would not need to start a new deductible and pay the deductible twice in a year.

Because of the way that the ACA subsidy is calculated you can sometimes find the same healthcare plan outside the healthcare exchange for less for the identical policy. Google "silver loading" or "Silver switcharoo" for details since it gets political

I have known several people who worked for school districts with jobs like school bus drivers or school cafeteria workers in order to get benefits including healthcare. They likely did not have nearly as much as you but that seemed to work out well for them since they got summers and school holidays off. They did not have $7 million in investments though. You have a limited time until the kids are launched and eventually you will be on Medicare so if I was in your situation I would just pay for an ACA policy.
oldtechguy wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2025 1:38 pm And yes, I am very aware of my very large single stock exposure - any ideas on how to efficiently divest that such as direct indexing are welcome!
Don't forget that your index funds also likely own that stock so that you may have even more exposure to it.

If you support a church or charity there are ways to give them that stock instead of cash either now or through a donor advised fund which will save on the capital gains taxes.

Paying taxes is never fun but even if you hold on to the stock longer you are unlikely to ever be in a situation where you will pay less than a 15% federal long term gain tax plus your state taxes. You would want to do dummy tax returns to figure out how much you would pay if you sold it all today but it might just be 20% federal capital gains and about 4% in NIIT tax on the gains plus your state taxes. 24% is only 9% more than 15%. That is only on the gains though so if you have 50% in capital gains the increased cost would only be about half of that 9% or 4.5%. The stock will likely vary in price by a lot more than that just with normal trading.

Deferring a tax bill is not the same as avoiding it.

If you cannot figure out a scenario where you could save a lot in taxes then I would just sell the stock.
Last edited by Watty on Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:31 pm, edited 3 times in total.
RetiredAL
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by RetiredAL »

OP -- If me, I'd take a different track with my attitude. You are needlessly making yourself stress out over a maybe that is close to to being immaterial to you.

If me, it would be: I'm able to retire, but there is icing for the cake doing a few more years. If I get hammered, then I retire, either fully or partially. Until something happens, I not going stress out or worry about it.
yzy
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by yzy »

[quote=random_walker_77 post_id=8236378 time=1738525438 user_id=44986
Stress levels can drop a lot when you don't care too much how it goes...
[/quote]

Thank you for sharing this view. At 59 and trying to decide how long to work, adopting this view may help me enjoy the last years more and focus on the parts of the job that I love.
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oldtechguy
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by oldtechguy »

random_walker_77 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 1:43 pm So you're looking at about 6M in invested assets, and about 1/4 million in estimated annual spending? That's just about 4% so possibly ok, but a bit tight. If spending is expected to go down in a few years due to kids finishing their education and moving off your health insurance, then you're probably good, though high early spending (and a historically high stock market) might mean you're extra susceptible to "sequence of returns" risk.

The spending level suggests that you might have room to trim the fat if things go poorly. It sounds like you have approx 150K of spending (after excluding tax on investments, health care, and college), which sounds pretty high for a MCOL area.
Agree with all of the above. It feels like I am very close perhaps already there. And yes, I feel my spending I am seeing is a bit skewed with taxes I should not see once retired and definitely once my kids start becoming self-sufficient and off my payroll. But the health insurance is just so,,, terrible.
southernlucky
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by southernlucky »

Hi op. Sorry to be a negative Nellie but you are close but not there yet imho. I see about $4.5m liquid investments net of mortgage debt (EDIT: I just reread your post and misread principal as remaining debt which was not listed…adjust my math as needed). I would not count illiquid land or home values as you can’t eat dirt or shingles. Your estimated $210k net initial withdrawal (accounting for rents) is over 4.6% burn rate. Too high imho at age 52. I would personally want 3-3.5% and inflation adjusted thereafter. Typical SWR research is 4% initial withdrawal rate but for 30 yrs. You could be retired over 40 yrs. I realize this is ignoring social security but that generally only adds about 0.2% to SWR. At your young age you likely have not achieved a full 35 yrs earning history either resulting in several zeros being added reducing your social security estimate unless you have accounted for that properly.

I would try to hang on a few more years if possible to build up your margin of safety. If not already done so I also highly recommend you read the excellent SWR Series at the early retirement now blog at:

https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-wit ... te-series/
Last edited by southernlucky on Sun Feb 02, 2025 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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oldtechguy
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by oldtechguy »

Watty wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:26 pm Unless I missed it there were a few things missing from your post which you might want to add using the icon with the pencil on it to edit your post.

1) How much Social Security will you and your spouse get if you stop working today, and when do you expect to start Social Security. See this web site to see what it suggests.

https://opensocialsecurity.com/
I intentionally left SS out of the equation. Yes, I am pretty sure my wife and I will get something at some point, but probably not gonna apply until at least 67 (or later when they decide 67 is too young). But - like the situation we have with health insurnace in this country, SS is my second least favorite thing.
3) How much of your expenses are your mortgage payment(without any escrow accounts)? How much home equity do you have? There are endless threads and opinions about if you should pay a mortgage off or not but if you decide to not pay off your $230K mortgage I would suggest considering $230K of your taxable accounts to be a mortgage offset fund and take it out of the rest of your retirement expense calculations.
Home is probably worth around $750K so maybe $500K in equity. I left this out too as my thinking is i can't easily dump or liquidate the house I live in. No escrow. My mortgage payment is about $1K/month plus property taxes which adds another $625-ish/month. So - no hurry to pay it off given current rates with a 3% mortgage.
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oldtechguy
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by oldtechguy »

southernlucky wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:56 pm Hi op. Sorry to be a negative Nellie but you are close but not there yet imho. I see about $4.5m liquid investments net of mortgage debt (EDIT: I just reread your post and misread principal as remaining debt which was not listed…adjust my math as needed). I would not count illiquid land or home values as you can’t eat dirt or shingles. Your estimated $210k net initial withdrawal (accounting for rents) is over 4.6% burn rate. Too high imho at age 52. I would personally want 3-3.5% and inflation adjusted thereafter. Typical SWR research is 4% initial withdrawal rate but for 30 yrs. You could be retired over 40 yrs. I realize this is ignoring social security but that generally only adds about 0.2% to SWR. At your young age you likely have not achieved a full 35 yrs earning history either resulting in several zeros being added reducing your social security estimate unless you have accounted for that properly.

I would try to hang on a few more years if possible to build up your margin of safety. If not already done so I also highly recommend you read the excellent SWR Series at the early retirement now blog at:

https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-wit ... te-series/
Well, I see the farm land as an invested asset. If I wanted or needed to sell it, I am confident I could with very little expense or time to do so. And I did not include any home equity or SS as I agree with your stance on these - I can't eat my house and not sure I can count of SS for several reasons. But I hear you. I feel I am close/right there but in reality perhaps I try to figure out how to do some part time things that are a bit more less stress and bigger bonus if I can figure out how to have that address health insurance.
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oldtechguy
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by oldtechguy »

almostretired1965 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 1:56 pm I have a feeling you may be employed by my ex-employer that had a 55/15 policy that vests all RSUs if you've been with the company for 15 years and are at least 55. If that is your situation, I would hold out for 55 even if I had double your assets, unless work has become unbearable for some reason. At the very least, make them give you a severance package or at least unemployment.
Haha. I cannot confirm nor deny that... :) Not sure how long ago you were at this employer, but... things have gotten... pretty bad.
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oldtechguy
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by oldtechguy »

RetiredAL wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:29 pm OP -- If me, I'd take a different track with my attitude. You are needlessly making yourself stress out over a maybe that is close to to being immaterial to you.

If me, it would be: I'm able to retire, but there is icing for the cake doing a few more years. If I get hammered, then I retire, either fully or partially. Until something happens, I not going stress out or worry about it.
Yes - agree. I am trying to look at it that way. I really am. Thanks for the reminder!
radiowave
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by radiowave »

OP, I defer to the wisdom our forum members above. All excellent advice.

You seem close to financial independence, but just not quite there yet, considering you may be in retirement not generating income for decades? Can you decrease expenses? Have you consider moving to a part-time position, perhaps one with paid health insurance? What are you retiring to, opposed to retiring from?
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mike_in_ny
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by mike_in_ny »

For your spending, I would suggest that you back out your income based taxes and the
cost of college for the kids. What is your "core" spending? And how much of that is
payment for the mortgage?

Reason why this is important is that your income taxes will drop quite a bit once you
stop working. As for college costs, if you have two in there now, then you can estimate
the balance to go for each of them. Take a guess on the third, and then it could be
just a dollar amount that you need, not something you need every year.
pasadena
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by pasadena »

oldtechguy wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 4:13 pm
almostretired1965 wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 1:56 pm I have a feeling you may be employed by my ex-employer that had a 55/15 policy that vests all RSUs if you've been with the company for 15 years and are at least 55. If that is your situation, I would hold out for 55 even if I had double your assets, unless work has become unbearable for some reason. At the very least, make them give you a severance package or at least unemployment.
Haha. I cannot confirm nor deny that... :) Not sure how long ago you were at this employer, but... things have gotten... pretty bad.
I agree with @almostretired1965. If they're right (I had the same feeling when reading your post that I know this company), then after 2 decades a severance package would net you just under a year of pay in severance (depending on your level), plus RSU and health insurance for several months.
Unless you really can't bear it anymore, this alone is worth waiting to see if the hammer falls. Holding until you're 54 would give you access to that 55/15 policy as part of said package.

I would be more worried about your single stocks. For the 401(k), are you keeping it because you're planning on using the NUA rule, or for another reason? You definitely should review those.

How much of your assets are in Roth? It seems that neither you nor your wife have Roth IRAs (you both should). Are you contributing to the after-tax 401(k) and converting that to Roth?
mchampse
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by mchampse »

My wife was thinking of leaving her big tech job when suddenly she was told that she had been laid off. Wasn’t the timing that she expected but nonetheless was able to move onto other things with a nice severance and COBRA paid for 6 months. One option is wait it out and see if they’ll let you go. They can be in hiring mode and still lay you off.
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dogagility
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by dogagility »

With about 6MM in your total portfolio and a spend of 240k/year, feel free to retire. This doesn't include any social security income either.

Here's nice planner to use. https://tpawplanner.com/
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random_walker_77
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by random_walker_77 »

oldtechguy wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2025 1:38 pm I have not been fired - yet - but at this stage of life and career I do not feel like spending every day looking over my shoulder and waiting for some random hammer to drop on me.
pasadena wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 4:56 pm after 2 decades a severance package would net you just under a year of pay in severance (depending on your level), plus RSU and health insurance for several months.
Unless you really can't bear it anymore, this alone is worth waiting to see if the hammer falls. Holding until you're 54 would give you access to that 55/15 policy as part of said package.
mchampse wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 5:20 pm My wife was thinking of leaving her big tech job when suddenly she was told that she had been laid off. Wasn’t the timing that she expected but nonetheless was able to move onto other things with a nice severance and COBRA paid for 6 months. One option is wait it out and see if they’ll let you go. They can be in hiring mode and still lay you off.
I think there's a mental aspect to this. These days, layoffs shouldn't affect your ego. Especially if it's your last gig before retirement. It's just business and you shouldn't let it affect your ego, as it often isn't even a statement about your work. (And even if it is, so what?) Layoffs have lost most of their stigma, in my opinion, and us americans perhaps make work too much a part of our identity. If approaching retirement, you need to fix that mental model anyways, to best enjoy a healthy, happy (and hopefully lengthy) retirement.

If you're ready to go, then a layoff package is basically a godsend. Prior to that, maybe it's not anything to stress about. There's also this thing called "quiet quitting"...

PS Check the fine print on your RSUs. Some companies continue to vest even while you're out on leave!
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Ace300
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by Ace300 »

oldtechguy wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2025 1:38 pm I have not been fired - yet - but at this stage of life and career I do not feel like spending every day looking over my shoulder and waiting for some random hammer to drop on me. This is not how I envisioned the end of my career would be, but here we are.
Why would you pull the ripcord on your own when you seem so confident that your employer doing it for you is imminent, with the latter likely including a severance package as many earlier in this thread have alluded to? Granted there may be aspects of your day-to-day work that are unbearable...I have been in toxic work environments before and they are soul-sucking, but the fact that you are clearly financially independent (don't nitpick, you are set if you want to be) should allow you some peace of mind if you are truly wanting to ride it out another year or two to get to 54-55.

Some may question this strategy, citing moral compromise, but have you thought about "quiet quitting" to improve your work-life balance and sanity for working there in the remaining time of your career? I don't really care for the term as it points to laziness or defrauding the company, rather to me its a way to decompress from the work stress by only focusing on the minimum time and effort that are needed to do your job, while eschewing all other activities and "politics" that go on in large corporations.
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quantAndHold
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Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by quantAndHold »

Been there, done that. I retired from big tech at 53. I’m now 61.

Of course you can retire. You have $5m+ in your portfolio, the farmland, and a house that you could just write a check to pay off without batting an eye.

My experience with an ACA plan is that my unsubsidized premium has gone from $500 to $750/month, for a HSA eligible plan with a $7k deductible/OOP max. It goes up 5-7% per year. Some of that is inflation, some is me getting older. Multiply that by 2 for two of you. Most years I’ve qualified for about a 50% subsidy. My wife is already on Medicare, which is considerably cheaper. I got cancer at 59, immediately hit my OOP max, have been hitting it every year since then, and expect that to continue until I’m 65. My insurance has actually worked really well. I hit the OOP max, and then I’m done paying for stuff for the year. It’s predictable, and I can budget for it.

The one thing I would question is the $200k+ spending in what I suspect is a MCOL area. Do you need to spend that much? And for how long? I know kids are expensive, but yours are not that many years from being launched. I mean, my wife and I would struggle to spend $120k, and we live in one of the most expensive places in the country and 1/3 of our spending is travel. I would look at that and figure out how much you actually need to spend, and what could be cut if the market crashed, for example. I’m guessing that there’s enough discretionary spending in there that you’re not taking much risk by just walking away now.
random_walker_77
Posts: 2404
Joined: Tue May 21, 2013 8:49 pm

Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by random_walker_77 »

quantAndHold wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:08 am My experience with an ACA plan is that my unsubsidized premium has gone from $500 to $750/month, for a HSA eligible plan with a $7k deductible/OOP max. It goes up 5-7% per year. Some of that is inflation, some is me getting older.
ACA plans depend on where you live, your age, and whether you're a smoker. I've learned that WA state posts rate sheets for all of the insurers, so that is at least indicative of how much prices change with age:
https://www.insurance.wa.gov/2025-indiv ... alth-plans

Here're direct links to UHC , Kaiser, and blue cross

For UHC, the monthly cost for Seattle, non-smoker, is:

Code: Select all

Age Cost
20 $358
30 $418
40 $471
50 $658
60 $1000
HomeStretch
Posts: 13048
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:06 pm

Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by HomeStretch »

If you want to or are forced to retire, you should be fine. Couple things to consider:

1) The single stock > 20% of your portfolio. Market fluctuations can introduce significant volatility to your portfolio value. So if you need the portfolio $ for retirement spending and aren’t willing to cut spending if the value declines, put in place a plan to reduce that %.

2) The ACA cliff is scheduled to return in 2026. To be eligible for subsidies in 2025, your ACA MAGI must be <$182.9k for an ACA family of 5 in the 48 contiguous states. You have to read up on whether any 1040 income for your kids must be included in your ACA MAGI calculation. So if you can manage your income to stay below the cliff, you will be eligible for substantial subsidies. If not, be sure your budget includes full premiums & OOPs.

3) $32k in rental income for the $1.2 million farm land is a low return on your investment. Is there sentimental value to the property or is this an investment?
HereToLearn
Posts: 1716
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:53 pm

Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by HereToLearn »

random_walker_77 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 2:01 pm
quantAndHold wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 11:08 am My experience with an ACA plan is that my unsubsidized premium has gone from $500 to $750/month, for a HSA eligible plan with a $7k deductible/OOP max. It goes up 5-7% per year. Some of that is inflation, some is me getting older.
ACA plans depend on where you live, your age, and whether you're a smoker. I've learned that WA state posts rate sheets for all of the insurers, so that is at least indicative of how much prices change with age:
https://www.insurance.wa.gov/2025-indiv ... alth-plans

Here're direct links to UHC , Kaiser, and blue cross

For UHC, the monthly cost for Seattle, non-smoker, is:

Code: Select all

Age Cost
20 $358
30 $418
40 $471
50 $658
60 $1000
I was surprised by a $750 monthly premium for a $7K OOP max. My unsubsidized premium is $1367 for $7200 OOP, with the deductible representing most of the OOP--$6700, I think. Amazing variation in local health care costs.
Wash.Invest
Posts: 824
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2009 1:25 am

Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by Wash.Invest »

. once my kids start becoming self-sufficient and off my payroll.
Set the captives free! It will be good for them. Age 18 is adequate time to grow up (and get out, 100% on their own dime).

But the health insurance is just so,,, terrible.
. As my friends from NZ declare... "US HC is not just terrible, it is barbaric!"

I have watched way too many US colleagues, family, and friends go broke an still die using USA medical atrocities, often leaving an impoverished spouse. Yes... Brutal.

We used many options for HC during 15+ yrs bridge to Medicare. The simplest, least trouble, least expensive, most helpful was Healthcare cost sharing ~$300 / month for family + $300 / yr for a nonrestrictive fonacial cap. Your student aged kids can get HC Policy and care from their college or community. (or military/
Keenobserver
Posts: 1049
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:05 pm

Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by Keenobserver »

AlmostThereCT wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 12:41 pm Are you planning to pay for higher education for your 3 kids?

You probably have enough either way, but that is a large variable.
There will always be something left to make more for. What if the 3 kids require their own pvt islands? Maybe they need 3 pvt jets? What if they can only eat gold plated wagyu beef? What if....? What if OP never gets to enjoy a day of healthy reirement? So lets keep grinding to until they lower younto the grave. OP is worth well over $6 million, has worked his behind off since he was 22, is entering the last/ later leg of his life. If he was worth $60 million, some here would still tell him to not quit or retire as if we have an unlimited time on this earth, or gurantees of perpetual health.
random_walker_77
Posts: 2404
Joined: Tue May 21, 2013 8:49 pm

Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by random_walker_77 »

Keenobserver wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:20 am
AlmostThereCT wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2025 12:41 pm Are you planning to pay for higher education for your 3 kids?

You probably have enough either way, but that is a large variable.
There will always be something left to make more for. What if the 3 kids require their own pvt islands? Maybe they need 3 pvt jets? What if they can only eat gold plated wagyu beef? What if....? What if OP never gets to enjoy a day of healthy reirement? So lets keep grinding to until they lower younto the grave. OP is worth well over $6 million, has worked his behind off since he was 22, is entering the last/ later leg of his life. If he was worth $60 million, some here would still tell him to not quit or retire as if we have an unlimited time on this earth, or gurantees of perpetual health.
In absolute terms, $6M "ought" to be enough, but it depends on spending. It's clearly not if you're spending 0.5M per year. OP is spending 250K / yr, and for early retirement, that does give me pause. They might be ok, but might not be. If there's leeway to substantially spending if the market crashes, then they're probably good to retire. If 250K is a hard minimum spend and/or there's a risk of spending going higher, then it's more of a concern.
Keenobserver
Posts: 1049
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:05 pm

Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by Keenobserver »

random_walker_77 wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 1:32 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:20 am

There will always be something left to make more for. What if the 3 kids require their own pvt islands? Maybe they need 3 pvt jets? What if they can only eat gold plated wagyu beef? What if....? What if OP never gets to enjoy a day of healthy reirement? So lets keep grinding to until they lower younto the grave. OP is worth well over $6 million, has worked his behind off since he was 22, is entering the last/ later leg of his life. If he was worth $60 million, some here would still tell him to not quit or retire as if we have an unlimited time on this earth, or gurantees of perpetual health.
In absolute terms, $6M "ought" to be enough, but it depends on spending. It's clearly not if you're spending 0.5M per year. OP is spending 250K / yr, and for early retirement, that does give me pause. They might be ok, but might not be. If there's leeway to substantially spending if the market crashes, then they're probably good to retire. If 250K is a hard minimum spend and/or there's a risk of spending going higher, then it's more of a concern.
How come no one talks about the " risks" of not retiring early enough [ retiring too late]. That risk is huge and always there and yet we always talk about the 0.01% chance of running out of money, how about running out of breaths?
random_walker_77
Posts: 2404
Joined: Tue May 21, 2013 8:49 pm

Re: To retire or not to retire gut-check

Post by random_walker_77 »

Keenobserver wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 1:56 pm
random_walker_77 wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2025 1:32 pm

In absolute terms, $6M "ought" to be enough, but it depends on spending. It's clearly not if you're spending 0.5M per year. OP is spending 250K / yr, and for early retirement, that does give me pause. They might be ok, but might not be. If there's leeway to substantially spending if the market crashes, then they're probably good to retire. If 250K is a hard minimum spend and/or there's a risk of spending going higher, then it's more of a concern.
How come no one talks about the " risks" of not retiring early enough [ retiring too late]. That risk is huge and always there and yet we always talk about the 0.01% chance of running out of money, how about running out of breaths?
I've seen it talked about here, but not nearly as often. Most people fear living without money more than they fear dying before they've spent everything. I don't think that's unreasonable, especially if you're adverse to becoming a burden on society and/or wary of the lifestyle you'd get from living on just social security. That said, one solution that ensures you run out of money at the same time you run out of lifespan is the trusty SPIA
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