pasadena wrote: Wed Jan 01, 2025 8:14 pm
Happy New Year Bogleheads!
According to Fidelity, my 2024 overall performance is +17.90% for a ~80/20 portfolio.
Interesting numbers this year. I kind of missed the first quarter run-up in stocks because I front-load my 401(k) and basically only buy bonds and international stocks during that period. After that, from April to December, I only buy US stocks (and rebalance).
VASGX, the Vanguard 80/20 fund, was only up 13.2% in 2024.
Congratulations on the outperformance!
Thanks! That got me curious, so I modeled my "benchmark" portfolio:
- 64% VTI
- 16% VXUS
- 20% BND
- Reinvested dividends and rebalancing using 5/25 bands
And the result is +16%, which is close enough!
If I model the same with 48/32/20 (roughly market cap, what Vanguard uses) it gets down to 12.6% (without international bonds, which are included in VASGX).
(I also went back to Fidelity and excluded my "fun money account" from the overall performance, because it's always a little messed up due to receiving my ESPP and RSU shares. Edited my 17.90% to 17.46%.)
65% equities/ 34% bonds and 1% cash. Equities are 67% VTI/ 33% VXUS. Bonds 70% BND, 30% BNDX. Vanguard tells me my return for 2024 was 11.6%. [Correction: Vanguard update after holiday suggests it was 12.3%].
Last edited by Chicagoprof on Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
In 2004, very early in my career, I was thinking to retire by 2030. I had a small house and small family and didn't really like my job.
By 2013 I had a much bigger family, a bigger house, and really enjoyed my job. I was thinking to retire by 2039.
Now I have an even bigger family (grandkids, even) and more expensive house, and I like my job. But I'm thinking it'll work retire by 2035. We'll see.
Buy and hold principles continue to serve me well. Life is good.
livesoft wrote: Wed Jan 01, 2025 9:02 am
So not better than holding cash for 3 years:
3.94% VMFXX Vanguard Federal Money Market fund
Imagine that! Those professionally designed balanced portfolios all outperformed by the lowly money market fund!
One of the very few things I remember from Econ 101 — I just couldn't get interested — was the prof extolling the virtues of money market funds at the time, in 1981. It took a few decades, but the downtrodden money market funds have become virtuous once again. We'll have to see how long that lasts.
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” |—| "In finance, if you’re certain of anything, you’re out of your mind." ─William Bernstein
livesoft wrote: Wed Jan 01, 2025 9:02 am
And since they are easy to look up here are the CAGR performances over the past 3 years of those same 60/40 funds (from Morningstar)
(31 December 2022 to 31 December 2024) returns of a few 60/40 funds for your viewing and benchmarking pleasure.
2.29% VSMGX Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund, has US + International 3.84% VBIAX Vanguard Balanced Index fund, has US only and no international 3.88% DGSIX DFA Global Allocation 60/40 I fund, a small-cap and value tilted 60/40 asset allocation 2.41% SWBGX Schwab MarketTrack Balanced 60/40, a balanced fund of index funds 2.62% AOR iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF 60/40 (NAV, not price)
The performance of a 60/40 portfolio continues to vary by quite a bit depending on how the 60/40 is constituted.
So not better than holding cash for 3 years:
3.94% VMFXX Vanguard Federal Money Market fund
Over the past 3 years maybe some MYGA holders or TIAA traditional annuity participants did better?
(31 December 2022 to 31 December 2024) - it's only a 2-year period. Did you mean from 31 December - 2021?
livesoft wrote: Wed Jan 01, 2025 9:02 am
So not better than holding cash for 3 years:
3.94% VMFXX Vanguard Federal Money Market fund
Imagine that! Those professionally designed balanced portfolios all outperformed by the lowly money market fund!
One of the very few things I remember from Econ 101 — I just couldn't get interested — was the prof extolling the virtues of money market funds at the time, in 1981. It took a few decades, but the downtrodden money market funds have become virtuous once again. We'll have to see how long that lasts.
I remember CD's paying 18-21% around that time frame...
I rarely talk straight percentages since to me only dollars matter, not percentages. Since we only do index funds, Beardstown style makes better sense. For 2024 our investments were up right at 12 times (yes, yes, I know, that’s 1200%) what we spent for the year. Still working. 2023 was about seven times. Darn good two year run.
Now that we have glided down to 65% equities from around 90% in 2024, I anticipate way “worse” reporting in a year, especially since I plan to retire in a couple months.
Silverado wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2025 3:58 pm
I rarely talk straight percentages since to me only dollars matter, not percentages. Since we only do index funds, Beardstown style makes better sense. For 2024 our investments were up right at 12 times (yes, yes, I know, that’s 1200%) what we spent for the year. Still working. 2023 was about seven times. Darn good two year run.
Now that we have glided down to 65% equities from around 90% in 2024, I anticipate way “worse” reporting in a year, especially since I plan to retire in a couple months.
Congratulations on your imminent retirement
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
YTD (31 January 2025) returns of a few 60/40 funds for your viewing and benchmarking pleasure.
2.11% VSMGX Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund, has US + International 2.10% VBIAX Vanguard Balanced Index fund, has US only and no international 1.96% DGSIX DFA Global Allocation 60/40 I fund, a small-cap and value tilted 60/40 asset allocation 2.05% SWBGX Schwab MarketTrack Balanced 60/40, a balanced fund of index funds 2.06% AOR iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF 60/40 (NAV, not price)
The performance of a 60/40 portfolio continues to vary by quite a bit depending on how the 60/40 is constituted.
Also note: 1.84% AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF 5.90% MTUM iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
3.09% VTSAX Vanguard Total US Stock Market 3.34% VTIAX Vanguard Total International Stock Market 0.64% VBTLX Vanguard US Bond Index fund 0.55% VSCSX Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index fund 1.24% VAIPX Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities fund 0.48% VWITX Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt fund
0.36% VMFXX Vanguard Federal Money Market fund
0.23% QREARX TIAA Real Estate [off to a strong (sic) start!\ 1.66% VGSLX Vanguard Real Estate Index fund
[Corrections welcome!]
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November in the books -
Stocks in my Roth - +5.85%
Roths Overall - +5.52%
Net Worth Overall - +4.94% (doesn't include house,cars etc)
December in the books - 2024 Final
Stocks in my Roth - +0.45%
Roths Overall - +2.47%
Net Worth Overall - +3.52% (doesn't include house,cars etc)
Yes 2024 sucked for me and I would have been better off in a whole market ETF.
Not as bad as 2022 tho...
My stocks were up 105.37% in 2023 so overall I'm still ahead of the game!
January 2025 in the books
Stocks in my Roth - -0.37%
Roths Overall - -0.11%
Net Worth Overall - +0.85% (doesn't include house,cars etc)