Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
I live in Montana. No one likes the cold. Our appreciation for housing has been high as have the coasts but started from rather lower levels. But really the question is how small of a city do you want to consider? Or maybe I might be missing something?
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
What is your defintion of Midwest?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
If I had to bet, Rochester MN. But that would be a bet, not an investment. Better off trying to pick the next penny stonk.
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
User name checks out ...JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:49 pm Ehh, sick of watching other people make real estate $$$.
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Gary Indiana Detroit and other towns like that may have some high upside growth if the place you buy doesn't get condemned or something not sure they can get much lower.
In Iowa the prices are all over the place 10 years ago or so you could have gotten some fairly good housing for 50-100k now even really bad dumps are going for 90k+ it's still really cheap compared to most of the USA but a lot compared to what it was and not sure a lot of it will be blowing up in price again.
In Iowa the prices are all over the place 10 years ago or so you could have gotten some fairly good housing for 50-100k now even really bad dumps are going for 90k+ it's still really cheap compared to most of the USA but a lot compared to what it was and not sure a lot of it will be blowing up in price again.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
3 years? 5 years? Bentonville, Arkansas is blowing up right now and I think you would make good money if you sell in the future. Lots of people moving for the high quality of sports (mountain biking) for example.JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:42 pm Which markets there have the highest price appreciation, such that if I own a home for a few years, I'd be most likely to make money on it?
[OP has a related thread at viewtopic.php?t=421723, but this is a separate different question. Moderator Pops1860]
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
I’d look for low property taxes.
The problem with most of the Midwest is high property taxes.
The problem with most of the Midwest is high property taxes.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
++++1
Last edited by TheRoundHeadedKid on Sun Sep 08, 2024 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
What is your obsession with buying? Has the real estate marketing juggernaut sunk its fangs into you?
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
How about Calumet City?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
I'd rather own property and make the money from appreciation rather than pay higher rent when property appreciates.WhitePuma wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:15 pm What is your obsession with buying? Has the real estate marketing juggernaut sunk its fangs into you?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
It's not always a financial win to own rather than rent. Here's an easy calculator that helps with the math: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... lator.htmlJustGotScammed wrote: Sun Jun 09, 2024 5:58 pmI'd rather own property and make the money from appreciation rather than pay higher rent when property appreciates.WhitePuma wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:15 pm What is your obsession with buying? Has the real estate marketing juggernaut sunk its fangs into you?
No tilts.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
That calculator is a fantastic resource! Unfortunately, it's plagued by a crucial unknown: expected annual real-estate appreciation. Everything else, including prospective returns on other investments (stocks, bonds,...) have plausible expected bounds. These things can be estimated. So too, can mortgage rates and rise in property taxes and alternatively the rise in rents. For all of that stuff, we can erect reasonable guard rails... best case and worst case. But for housing-appreciation, we can not. If we have another run, as we did over the past 5 years, then the OP's premise becomes only too true. FOMO would be wisdom incarnate. If we get a stagnation, as happened say during 2012-2017, then it's probably better to rent. And so on.happyisland wrote: Sun Jun 09, 2024 6:45 pmIt's not always a financial win to own rather than rent. Here's an easy calculator that helps with the math: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... lator.htmlJustGotScammed wrote: Sun Jun 09, 2024 5:58 pmI'd rather own property and make the money from appreciation rather than pay higher rent when property appreciates.WhitePuma wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:15 pm What is your obsession with buying? Has the real estate marketing juggernaut sunk its fangs into you?
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
How would you predict rise in rents without being able to roughly predict rise in housing prices? I would suspect there is a very strong correlation between the two.unwitting_gulag wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 12:12 amThat calculator is a fantastic resource! Unfortunately, it's plagued by a crucial unknown: expected annual real-estate appreciation. Everything else, including prospective returns on other investments (stocks, bonds,...) have plausible expected bounds. These things can be estimated. So too, can mortgage rates and rise in property taxes and alternatively the rise in rents. For all of that stuff, we can erect reasonable guard rails... best case and worst case. But for housing-appreciation, we can not. If we have another run, as we did over the past 5 years, then the OP's premise becomes only too true. FOMO would be wisdom incarnate. If we get a stagnation, as happened say during 2012-2017, then it's probably better to rent. And so on.happyisland wrote: Sun Jun 09, 2024 6:45 pmIt's not always a financial win to own rather than rent. Here's an easy calculator that helps with the math: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... lator.htmlJustGotScammed wrote: Sun Jun 09, 2024 5:58 pmI'd rather own property and make the money from appreciation rather than pay higher rent when property appreciates.WhitePuma wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:15 pm What is your obsession with buying? Has the real estate marketing juggernaut sunk its fangs into you?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
It’s always tough to assess where and why real-estate will go up or down over a given period.
For example, I am surprised to see Floridians go to great lengths including self-insuring their homes while climate change continues to wreak havoc in the vulnerable coastal areas with no sign of abating.
Feels like the boiled frog to me and would definitely not invest any monies in those areas. Of course, others disagree and keep going.
There are a number of states and cities which are projected as being more climate ready and resilient. Will that translate to strong returns on real-estate? Possibly, but it could take awhile yet before you may see it…or see an extraordinary amount of activity if things take a faster turn for the worse.
In the end, it’s guessing and hoping. Instead, I would simply make a best bet what will be good for your family over the long term and go with that.
For example, I am surprised to see Floridians go to great lengths including self-insuring their homes while climate change continues to wreak havoc in the vulnerable coastal areas with no sign of abating.
Feels like the boiled frog to me and would definitely not invest any monies in those areas. Of course, others disagree and keep going.
There are a number of states and cities which are projected as being more climate ready and resilient. Will that translate to strong returns on real-estate? Possibly, but it could take awhile yet before you may see it…or see an extraordinary amount of activity if things take a faster turn for the worse.
In the end, it’s guessing and hoping. Instead, I would simply make a best bet what will be good for your family over the long term and go with that.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Where do you reside now? And how much can you afford?JustGotScammed wrote: Sun Jun 09, 2024 5:58 pmI'd rather own property and make the money from appreciation rather than pay higher rent when property appreciates.WhitePuma wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:15 pm What is your obsession with buying? Has the real estate marketing juggernaut sunk its fangs into you?
In other threads you started, you mention that 1) your current rent is $1,300 and that 2) you are interested in living in coastal areas near San Diego (Del Mar) where rent for 1k sq ft exceeds $5k/ month.
There is some dichotomy among 1), 2), and premise of the current thread. For instance, $1,300/month in rent is right around what is reasonable for an older but well maintained 1-BR APT in a decent area in some Midwest locales that have seen significant RE appreciation (both in terms of rentals and property pricing). in such areas, newer 1-BR units built in the last 15 years generally cost -$1,600 or more. The places that now rents for $1,300 also tend to have had rents of ~$1k/month about four years ago. In some locales, even $1,600 might not be enough.
That’s all a long-winded way of saying what you are seeking to avoid is already present in the more desirable places in the Midwest, and that desirability is ultimately what drove appreciation in the past and what would drive future appreciation.
If your intent is really what are the next hot places in the Midwest (as opposed to what places has been hot and have likelihood of maintaining the trend), such intent really isn’t more than just mere speculation.
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
There are A LOT of factors that go into this analysis -- job market/workforce demographics, state-level politics, weather patterns, population trends, property/income taxes, housing supply/demand, etc.
The short answer is that there are certain characteristics within the coastal markets (aka Sunbelt region aka Smile States) that aren't fully replicable in the Midwest. You'd have to have a very intimate understanding of specific submarkets within a given Midwestern MSA, as there would likely be idiosyncratic drivers for such appreciation.
A good example was already mentioned -- Rochester, MN. Mayo Clinic, obviously, but those outside of the area probably don't know as much about the DMC ("Destination Medical Center") program that's driving tons of growth/investment in that city.
The short answer is that there are certain characteristics within the coastal markets (aka Sunbelt region aka Smile States) that aren't fully replicable in the Midwest. You'd have to have a very intimate understanding of specific submarkets within a given Midwestern MSA, as there would likely be idiosyncratic drivers for such appreciation.
A good example was already mentioned -- Rochester, MN. Mayo Clinic, obviously, but those outside of the area probably don't know as much about the DMC ("Destination Medical Center") program that's driving tons of growth/investment in that city.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Rise in housing prices has become unmoored from rise in rents. Consider for example the past 5 years. In my locale, rents have been basically stagnant, or perhaps just tracking inflation. Housing prices have exploded, resulting in returns beating US small-caps or ex-US stocks (US large-cap excepted, of course). Can this continue? I have no clue about housing prices. But for rents, the uncertainty bounds are narrower. Why? Because high rent would cause all sorts of social ructions and dislocations. The market would react adversely. People would move away. High and higher housing prices don't seem to thus behave. It has become understood that housing (locally) is a luxury-good.marcopolo wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 12:52 amHow would you predict rise in rents without being able to roughly predict rise in housing prices? I would suspect there is a very strong correlation between the two.unwitting_gulag wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 12:12 amThat calculator is a fantastic resource! Unfortunately, it's plagued by a crucial unknown: expected annual real-estate appreciation. Everything else, including prospective returns on other investments (stocks, bonds,...) have plausible expected bounds. These things can be estimated. So too, can mortgage rates and rise in property taxes and alternatively the rise in rents. For all of that stuff, we can erect reasonable guard rails... best case and worst case. But for housing-appreciation, we can not. If we have another run, as we did over the past 5 years, then the OP's premise becomes only too true. FOMO would be wisdom incarnate. If we get a stagnation, as happened say during 2012-2017, then it's probably better to rent. And so on.happyisland wrote: Sun Jun 09, 2024 6:45 pmIt's not always a financial win to own rather than rent. Here's an easy calculator that helps with the math: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... lator.htmlJustGotScammed wrote: Sun Jun 09, 2024 5:58 pmI'd rather own property and make the money from appreciation rather than pay higher rent when property appreciates.WhitePuma wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:15 pm What is your obsession with buying? Has the real estate marketing juggernaut sunk its fangs into you?
That brings us back to the OP's question. Lots of folks have critiqued the OP for feeling envious or of reducing housing to a financial decision, whereas in reality (we are told) it's mainly a lifestyle or consumption decision. Well, I agree with the OP. If housing weren't a lucrative investment, I'd never buy.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Chicago probably has the most expensive real estate in the midwest... Denver is another hot one. But I am confused, if you are getting priced out of coastal real estate, why would you be seeking expensive real estate in the midwest?
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Chicago may reverse its deteriorating business and social climates, meanwhile SE Wisconsin and NW Indiana are benefiting. These areas have ready access to the Chicago's transportation hub and its financial center. I would not expect RE appreciation on the scale of California or greater NYC where there are far more people with 7,8, and 9 figure incomes or net worths available to elevate RE prices. Chicago does have a lot of rich people, but not on the scale of NYC or California.
Agree with prior post praising the desirability of Ozaukee, Sheboygan, and Door counties north of Milwaukee, but transportation from Chicago would have to be 2-5 hrs by car. Safe walkable Lake Geneva Wi in Walworth county has a convenient train directly from Chicago and so it has been a summer playground for the Chicago rich since the late 19th century. Much shorter car ride than the other three from Chicago as well. Relatively few rich people in Indiana or Wisconsin.
Agree with prior post praising the desirability of Ozaukee, Sheboygan, and Door counties north of Milwaukee, but transportation from Chicago would have to be 2-5 hrs by car. Safe walkable Lake Geneva Wi in Walworth county has a convenient train directly from Chicago and so it has been a summer playground for the Chicago rich since the late 19th century. Much shorter car ride than the other three from Chicago as well. Relatively few rich people in Indiana or Wisconsin.
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Generally, Midwestern markets don't have the strong population growth figures that drive home values like the higher growth coastal cities. However, within the Midwest, I would think that cities with flagship public colleges and large government employment would do better than average. Think Madison, WI, or Columbus, OH.
You can research historical home values by city and county at the St. Louis Fed site.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
Here is the data for the United States, Madison, Columbus, and Chicago.

You can research historical home values by city and county at the St. Louis Fed site.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
Here is the data for the United States, Madison, Columbus, and Chicago.

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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
While this stands to reason, in terms of supply-and-demand etc., I have to wonder about markets such as Los Angeles. LA County has been stagnant or declining in population for a while; it looks to have peaked in 2017, and is now some 3% below where it was 7 years ago. Even so, housing prices have burgeoned.MMiroir wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 6:00 am Generally, Midwestern markets don't have the strong population growth figures that drive home values like the higher growth coastal cities. ...
Clearly, if population goes into long-term decline, it's hard to surmise, why housing prices would keep rising. But maybe there are large lags? In other words, could it be, that over some substantial period of time - call it maybe 10 years - trends in population and trends in housing prices could move in opposite directions?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Does it make sense to prioritize homes near major highways? They seem to appreciate more.
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
How about I answer your question in a public forum, and we all get rich, OP?
50% VTSAX | 25% VTIAX | 25% VBTLX (retirement), 25% VTEAX (taxable)
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
What you are looking for doesn’t really exist.
Typically “coastal style” real estate appreciation is a result of demand outpacing supply and enough buyers with the ability and willingness to pay eye watering prices.
Places like NYC, the Bay Area, SoCal, Seattle, Boston, and even DC have geographic factors and restrictive zoning that makes it difficult to build new homes which limits supply, lots of very high income, “family money”, and international buyers who are less price sensitive, and a culture where spending a huge % of income on housing is normal. For the most part the Midwest has none of these factors, which is why you don’t typically see the same type of appreciation. It also means there’s less of the boom/bust volatility seen on the coasts.
A better bet would be to look in the fast growing sun belt areas, especially those where lots of people have been moving from the VHCOL coastal areas bringing their high incomes, big down payments, and expectation to pay a lot. Unfortunately for you, many people figured this out in 2020 so most of the easy gains have already been taken.
Typically “coastal style” real estate appreciation is a result of demand outpacing supply and enough buyers with the ability and willingness to pay eye watering prices.
Places like NYC, the Bay Area, SoCal, Seattle, Boston, and even DC have geographic factors and restrictive zoning that makes it difficult to build new homes which limits supply, lots of very high income, “family money”, and international buyers who are less price sensitive, and a culture where spending a huge % of income on housing is normal. For the most part the Midwest has none of these factors, which is why you don’t typically see the same type of appreciation. It also means there’s less of the boom/bust volatility seen on the coasts.
A better bet would be to look in the fast growing sun belt areas, especially those where lots of people have been moving from the VHCOL coastal areas bringing their high incomes, big down payments, and expectation to pay a lot. Unfortunately for you, many people figured this out in 2020 so most of the easy gains have already been taken.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
I am weighing my options for where to put down roots.aristotelian wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:47 am Chicago probably has the most expensive real estate in the midwest... Denver is another hot one. But I am confused, if you are getting priced out of coastal real estate, why would you be seeking expensive real estate in the midwest?
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
But the whole premise of the question was short-term speculation...or at least short-term in the grand scheme of home ownership. Them be some shallow roots.JustGotScammed wrote: Sun Jun 23, 2024 8:16 pmI am weighing my options for where to put down roots.aristotelian wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:47 am Chicago probably has the most expensive real estate in the midwest... Denver is another hot one. But I am confused, if you are getting priced out of coastal real estate, why would you be seeking expensive real estate in the midwest?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Investing in real estate in another part of the country because "tired of watching other people make money".
What could go wrong?
What could go wrong?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Price is correlated to the population of people that have enough income/wealth to pay it. If poorer people move out but richer people move in, or even just remain, then prices may not move down.unwitting_gulag wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 2:30 pmWhile this stands to reason, in terms of supply-and-demand etc., I have to wonder about markets such as Los Angeles. LA County has been stagnant or declining in population for a while; it looks to have peaked in 2017, and is now some 3% below where it was 7 years ago. Even so, housing prices have burgeoned.MMiroir wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 6:00 am Generally, Midwestern markets don't have the strong population growth figures that drive home values like the higher growth coastal cities. ...
Clearly, if population goes into long-term decline, it's hard to surmise, why housing prices would keep rising. But maybe there are large lags? In other words, could it be, that over some substantial period of time - call it maybe 10 years - trends in population and trends in housing prices could move in opposite directions?
In addition, household size has been getting smaller for a very long time, so demand for housing/land can remain the same while population decreases.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Good point. The Midwest, with the exception of Chicago and pockets such as Ann Arbor MI, simply doesn't support the upper-tier wealth that one might find in the Bay Area, LA, San Diego, NYC and so on... say, households with net worth of $10M and above. I haven't seen statistics on the demographics of net in-migration vs out-migration in LA County. You may be quite right, in that the so-called middle class is decamping for lower-COL areas, whereas the wealthy (relatively speaking) are staying put, or on-net moving in.OrangeKiwi wrote: Mon Jun 24, 2024 1:32 pmPrice is correlated to the population of people that have enough income/wealth to pay it. If poorer people move out but richer people move in, or even just remain, then prices may not move down.unwitting_gulag wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 2:30 pmWhile this stands to reason, in terms of supply-and-demand etc., I have to wonder about markets such as Los Angeles. LA County has been stagnant or declining in population for a while; it looks to have peaked in 2017, and is now some 3% below where it was 7 years ago. Even so, housing prices have burgeoned.MMiroir wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 6:00 am Generally, Midwestern markets don't have the strong population growth figures that drive home values like the higher growth coastal cities. ...
Clearly, if population goes into long-term decline, it's hard to surmise, why housing prices would keep rising. But maybe there are large lags? In other words, could it be, that over some substantial period of time - call it maybe 10 years - trends in population and trends in housing prices could move in opposite directions?
In addition, household size has been getting smaller for a very long time, so demand for housing/land can remain the same while population decreases.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Maybe this is a simplistic way of looking at it, but if this is really about where they want to live, and not where can they make money in real estate, I recommend OP establish budget (both for renting and for buying), make a list of “must haves” / “nice to haves” amd then go look at markets that meet those criteria within the budget. Sure you can go live in rural ME or upstate NY, or rural Alabama and probably find lots of house for your money, but then you have to LIVE there. If you don’t like the cold, or want to be near a major airport, healthcare, or don’t want state taxes, etc, then options narrow. Personally I choose to live in HCOL area and rent for quality of life proximity to resources and family / friends, mileage may vary for others.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
To get big housing price appreciation you need demand and supply side factors:
- demand - people & employers moving into an area (there's push-pull on that from both sides). High birth rates are probably mostly only a factor in a very few places (Utah in particular?). Ditto high immigration (Texas, mostly?). Incomes that can pay higher real estate prices & rents (SF Bay Area, New York City in particular; also Washington DC area, Southern California, probably Denver, Portland OR and Seattle)
- supply - constraints due to geography (San Francisco is a very small city area) and NIMBYism (California is perhaps the worst, but New York and the North East do a good job) reflected in tight zoning etc.
If you have high demand and relatively unconstrained supply, then you get Phoenix AZ, Austin TX (indeed any major city in TX) or Atlanta (perhaps the fastest growing metro in America in the last 30 years?). Florida. One economist has called that "Flatland". People move there because housing is affordable, and then companies move there in search of that labor force - or causation works in the reverse way as well. The city/ greater urban area spreads outwards - which has its own issues re traffic etc.
The other situation where you get high demand eg due to the prosperity of the tech industry in SF Bay and Seattle and very constrained supply, call that "Zoneland" -- it's where you get rising housing prices. (Washington DC area might be somewhere in between the two).
What you tend to get in the Midwest I think is cities that have relatively static populations but movement within the city area. Historically from central city to suburb - first "white flight" but then other groups have followed. Urban sprawl. You definitely see this in Buffalo NY (which I count as a "Midwest" city because of its location - YMMV). But Buffalo (and Rochester NY) have also suffered from losing their core industries - actual declines in population.
Chicago (and Pittsburgh, and perhaps Columbus OH?) seem to have grown somewhat - attracted investment and jobs, sometimes from nearby areas. Whereas cities like St Louis have declined economically - lost some major employers etc. Thinks like financial services have definitely concentrated, even within regions (besides the omnipresent loss of local financial institutions to New York-based megacorps).
Upper Midwest is different again - but I assume construction of new housing in Minneapolis-St Paul's area is not particularly difficult?
There are some quite huge estimates of how much GDP is lost because of zoning constraints. If Palo Alto had the same zoning as Brooklyn, say. Edward Gleaser is the doyenne of urban economists and he has some papers.
How long can this go on? I observe the rise in cost of housing in the USA and I think "not forever". And the demographic trends are not particularly favourable. However I live in England, and we've institutionalised restrictions on new home construction, rigid "Green Belt" rules against development around London and other communities, down to villages of 100 homes. So it's definitely possible to drive this to the limit (average home price in Greater London is 10x average household income in the UK).
With some cities, such as New York, and perhaps Boston (?), it's an absolute choice to restrict population growth by not building enough housing.
- demand - people & employers moving into an area (there's push-pull on that from both sides). High birth rates are probably mostly only a factor in a very few places (Utah in particular?). Ditto high immigration (Texas, mostly?). Incomes that can pay higher real estate prices & rents (SF Bay Area, New York City in particular; also Washington DC area, Southern California, probably Denver, Portland OR and Seattle)
- supply - constraints due to geography (San Francisco is a very small city area) and NIMBYism (California is perhaps the worst, but New York and the North East do a good job) reflected in tight zoning etc.
If you have high demand and relatively unconstrained supply, then you get Phoenix AZ, Austin TX (indeed any major city in TX) or Atlanta (perhaps the fastest growing metro in America in the last 30 years?). Florida. One economist has called that "Flatland". People move there because housing is affordable, and then companies move there in search of that labor force - or causation works in the reverse way as well. The city/ greater urban area spreads outwards - which has its own issues re traffic etc.
The other situation where you get high demand eg due to the prosperity of the tech industry in SF Bay and Seattle and very constrained supply, call that "Zoneland" -- it's where you get rising housing prices. (Washington DC area might be somewhere in between the two).
What you tend to get in the Midwest I think is cities that have relatively static populations but movement within the city area. Historically from central city to suburb - first "white flight" but then other groups have followed. Urban sprawl. You definitely see this in Buffalo NY (which I count as a "Midwest" city because of its location - YMMV). But Buffalo (and Rochester NY) have also suffered from losing their core industries - actual declines in population.
Chicago (and Pittsburgh, and perhaps Columbus OH?) seem to have grown somewhat - attracted investment and jobs, sometimes from nearby areas. Whereas cities like St Louis have declined economically - lost some major employers etc. Thinks like financial services have definitely concentrated, even within regions (besides the omnipresent loss of local financial institutions to New York-based megacorps).
Upper Midwest is different again - but I assume construction of new housing in Minneapolis-St Paul's area is not particularly difficult?
There are some quite huge estimates of how much GDP is lost because of zoning constraints. If Palo Alto had the same zoning as Brooklyn, say. Edward Gleaser is the doyenne of urban economists and he has some papers.
How long can this go on? I observe the rise in cost of housing in the USA and I think "not forever". And the demographic trends are not particularly favourable. However I live in England, and we've institutionalised restrictions on new home construction, rigid "Green Belt" rules against development around London and other communities, down to villages of 100 homes. So it's definitely possible to drive this to the limit (average home price in Greater London is 10x average household income in the UK).
With some cities, such as New York, and perhaps Boston (?), it's an absolute choice to restrict population growth by not building enough housing.
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
You are incorrect, unless one wants to move well over an hour away. But building and remodeling in Minnesota, in general, is quite expensive compared to surrounding states. Still better than the coasts.Upper Midwest is different again - but I assume construction of new housing in Minneapolis-St Paul's area is not particularly difficult?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Housing in MSP seems downright reasonable compared to some of the places in the Upper Midwest (e.g. Madison). Lots of areas with lot of spaces that could be developed. I'm thinking of places such as Woodbury and Edina, both ~30 minutes from downtown. Different story if one wants a more walkable neighborhood such as western parts of St. Paul such as Macalester-Groveland. But then again, it's highly unlikely to see coastal style asset appreciation in places such as Woodbury and Edina.koryg75 wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2024 10:02 amYou are incorrect, unless one wants to move well over an hour away. But building and remodeling in Minnesota, in general, is quite expensive compared to surrounding states. Still better than the coasts.Upper Midwest is different again - but I assume construction of new housing in Minneapolis-St Paul's area is not particularly difficult?
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
The median home price in Edina is >$600K; it's a very mature, developed city. Certainly not comparable to the coasts, but by Midwestern standards it's pretty expensive/affluent.InvisibleAerobar wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2024 1:45 pmHousing in MSP seems downright reasonable compared to some of the places in the Upper Midwest (e.g. Madison). Lots of areas with lot of spaces that could be developed. I'm thinking of places such as Woodbury and Edina, both ~30 minutes from downtown. Different story if one wants a more walkable neighborhood such as western parts of St. Paul such as Macalester-Groveland. But then again, it's highly unlikely to see coastal style asset appreciation in places such as Woodbury and Edina.koryg75 wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2024 10:02 amYou are incorrect, unless one wants to move well over an hour away. But building and remodeling in Minnesota, in general, is quite expensive compared to surrounding states. Still better than the coasts.Upper Midwest is different again - but I assume construction of new housing in Minneapolis-St Paul's area is not particularly difficult?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Then your approach should emphasize finding a place that optimizes your quality of life. My approach would to be to pick four or five places that you actually want to live and put down roots. Places with a good job market for the kind of work you do, where there are a lot of activities you like to do, and where there’s a good culture fit. Then narrow it down by affordability.JustGotScammed wrote: Sun Jun 23, 2024 8:16 pmI am weighing my options for where to put down roots.aristotelian wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 11:47 am Chicago probably has the most expensive real estate in the midwest... Denver is another hot one. But I am confused, if you are getting priced out of coastal real estate, why would you be seeking expensive real estate in the midwest?
Aiming for real estate appreciation is great, but a) it’s a crapshoot, b) you don’t realize that appreciation until you sell, and c) even when you sell, you’ll still need a place to live, so you’ll probably spend a lot of that appreciation on housing.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Look for places that are desirable to live with larger than average wage and population growth.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
I was advised to get the smallest house possible in a nice subdivision in a desirable area. True?
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Generally, true. The old cliche is to buy the worst house in the best neighborhood, but you’re close enough.JustGotScammed wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:40 pm I was advised to get the smallest house possible in a nice subdivision in a desirable area. True?
Being wrong compounds forever.
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Howdysmooth_rough wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:12 pmWhich coast would you be referring to?JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:42 pm I might be getting priced out of buying property in the coastal markets so I may have to settle short-term for buying property in the US Midwest. Which markets there have the highest price appreciation, such that if I own a home for a few years, I'd be most likely to make money on it?
SF condo prices are collapsing right now.
Data source to confirm "crashing"? Or just general SF "doom speak?
Is 15% off (per local real estate data) from pre-covid pricing a crash?
W B
"Through chances various, through all vicissitudes, we make our way." Virgil, The Aeneid
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
We just sold a Chicago condo that appreciated 25% since we bought it in 2020. Nothing spent on it and another 25% on rental profit. Condos in San Francisco over the same period decreased 13% in value. Those Californians would love Midwest-style appreciation.
Be careful what you ask for!
Be careful what you ask for!
Last edited by snackdog on Thu Aug 08, 2024 9:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
JustGotScammed wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:40 pm I was advised to get the smallest house possible in a nice subdivision in a desirable area. True?
Location^3
Always buy the most you can afford in the best possible location.
BH Consumer FAQ: |
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Hi Jim -Sandtrap wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 8:38 amto op:JustGotScammed wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:42 pm I might be getting priced out of buying property in the coastal markets so I may have to settle short-term for buying property in the US Midwest. Which markets there have the highest price appreciation, such that if I own a home for a few years, I'd be most likely to make money on it?
Areas and specific neighborhoods and higher end (sometimes gated private with exclusive golf courses and dining with dress codes) socio-cultural economic enclaves with limited finite homes (geographic area) for sale that are always in demand no matter the price.
Lots of West coast examples, plus, upper scottsdale arizona, on oahu hawaii; kahala, lanikai, upper hawaii kai, etc. having specific socio economic diversity specific enclaves.
Generalized City or region names are too broad to apply.
supply and demand are very specific to location
There are more predictable ways to make short term profits than Residential SFH "flippers".
to op:
Have you done this before?
Would you be living in the home or immediate area?
How much do you have $$$$ to play with?
(500k, 1 mil cash, 3 mil cash)???
j![]()
Excellent advice!
Hope you are well.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
It sounds like you're reading the right books! Keep going down the path you're on...JustGotScammed wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:40 pm I was advised to get the smallest house possible in a nice subdivision in a desirable area. True?
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Tennesse? - not really considered traditional Midwest but just under, and definitely midwest friendly...
Pick the right area in Tn and one can find great appreciation with proptax & cost of loving is still amazingly low!
Moved/retired here 10+yrs ago and have had an easy 300%++ appreciation here...
Just pick a good area, there's still a lotta growth potential round here!
And nice easy livin - it "IS" America's most visited VacationLand...
Pick the right area in Tn and one can find great appreciation with proptax & cost of loving is still amazingly low!
Moved/retired here 10+yrs ago and have had an easy 300%++ appreciation here...
Just pick a good area, there's still a lotta growth potential round here!
And nice easy livin - it "IS" America's most visited VacationLand...
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
It has been complicated to execute, however. I saw a great subdivision with about 300 homes, and I would estimate 100 were ranches. But when I looked at the sold homes since 2020, about 30 of them sold and they were all the larger two-story homes. 100%. I had to go back to 2018 to see the last time one of the smaller ones sold. Normally, you would expect 1 out of every 3 or so listings to be on the smaller end, if it were just a random distribution. That makes me wonder: Is this just an anecdote, or do smaller homes in nice subdivisions in desirable areas go up for sale with less (dramatically?) less frequency than the others.wilked wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 6:02 amIt sounds like you're reading the right books! Keep going down the path you're on...JustGotScammed wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:40 pm I was advised to get the smallest house possible in a nice subdivision in a desirable area. True?
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
Some areas around Austin TX have experienced huge increase in housing prices.
But you're already late OP - everything doubled over the last 5 years. They're unlikely to double again.
But you're already late OP - everything doubled over the last 5 years. They're unlikely to double again.
Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
My guess is the statistics are tilted by the demographics of the families moving in. If the area you are looking at has a good school district, and most buyers are families with children, or couples planning for children, then that would tilt the sales to the larger homes, assuming that the salaries of those families are not overly stressed by the prices of the bigger homes.JustGotScammed wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 12:41 pmIt has been complicated to execute, however. I saw a great subdivision with about 300 homes, and I would estimate 100 were ranches. But when I looked at the sold homes since 2020, about 30 of them sold and they were all the larger two-story homes. 100%. I had to go back to 2018 to see the last time one of the smaller ones sold. Normally, you would expect 1 out of every 3 or so listings to be on the smaller end, if it were just a random distribution. That makes me wonder: Is this just an anecdote, or do smaller homes in nice subdivisions in desirable areas go up for sale with less (dramatically?) less frequency than the others.wilked wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 6:02 am
It sounds like you're reading the right books! Keep going down the path you're on...
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
I would also think some people aren’t selling smaller houses because they don’t want to pay for a bigger one.Hebell wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 6:28 pmMy guess is the statistics are tilted by the demographics of the families moving in. If the area you are looking at has a good school district, and most buyers are families with children, or couples planning for children, then that would tilt the sales to the larger homes, assuming that the salaries of those families are not overly stressed by the prices of the bigger homes.JustGotScammed wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 12:41 pm
It has been complicated to execute, however. I saw a great subdivision with about 300 homes, and I would estimate 100 were ranches. But when I looked at the sold homes since 2020, about 30 of them sold and they were all the larger two-story homes. 100%. I had to go back to 2018 to see the last time one of the smaller ones sold. Normally, you would expect 1 out of every 3 or so listings to be on the smaller end, if it were just a random distribution. That makes me wonder: Is this just an anecdote, or do smaller homes in nice subdivisions in desirable areas go up for sale with less (dramatically?) less frequency than the others.
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Re: Which Midwestern markets have "coastal style" real estate appreciation?
I know, but things are still going up.Stoic wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2025 6:16 pm Some areas around Austin TX have experienced huge increase in housing prices.
But you're already late OP - everything doubled over the last 5 years. They're unlikely to double again.