Take some money off the table?

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Peter Foley
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Take some money off the table?

Post by Peter Foley »

I read the financial section of the newspaper every morning and as part of the process take a quick glance at the YTD return of the S&P 500.

The S&P is up over 25% this year.

When it is up this much I admit to having an emotional response. I do have a written plan and have sufficient risk tolerance to follow that plan. I rebalance only a couple times per year if at all but this year I feel my reaction is as much emotional as rational. I'm in my 70's and have a 60/40 asset allocation. While I'm within 5% of that, I did make a minor adjustment - selling 3% of our Roths (about 1% of investment assets) to make gifts to our children.

Anyone else feeling more emotional than rational this year? It could also be related, in part, to the turmoil I see in the world today.
rkhusky
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by rkhusky »

That’s why you have plan. If it’s time to rebalance, rebalance. If not, don’t.
If your AA is off by the bands you’ve set, rebalance. If not, don’t.

Going by gut instinct or emotion will lead to errors.

If your allocation to stocks is too high, lower it, and never raise it again.
Zipster
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Zipster »

I “took some off the table” in April (7 months ago).

I don’t regret it, but S&P 500 is up 13% since then. The MM I put it into is up ~5%.
Normchad
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Normchad »

Emotion is one of an investors biggest enemies. Along with intuition and over confidence.

Recommend you stick to your plan for now. (Rebalance to get back on plan). And maybe spend a month or so really thinking about the plan, and seeing if the plan is still appropriate for you. It’s okay to change the plan, just be methodical and deliberate about it.

“Taking money off the table”. Where exactly would the money go?

As for me, I just rebalanced this week. My portfolio had gotten pretty far out of whack with the S&P gains this year. Normally I only rebalance at the first of the year, it this time I did it differently. And I’m guessing part of the reason I didn’t wait until January, was emotion. Or intuition. So I need to figure that bit out for myself….. I didn’t do anything wrong. If I had previously commuted to rebalancing bands, I would be golden. But I have always been intentional about doing it first thing in January. And I didn’t follow my plan here….

All the best!
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nedsaid
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by nedsaid »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am I read the financial section of the newspaper every morning and as part of the process take a quick glance at the YTD return of the S&P 500.

The S&P is up over 25% this year.

When it is up this much I admit to having an emotional response. I do have a written plan and have sufficient risk tolerance to follow that plan. I rebalance only a couple times per year if at all but this year I feel my reaction is as much emotional as rational. I'm in my 70's and have a 60/40 asset allocation. While I'm within 5% of that, I did make a minor adjustment - selling 3% of our Roths (about 1% of investment assets) to make gifts to our children.

Anyone else feeling more emotional than rational this year? It could also be related, in part, to the turmoil I see in the world today.
Emotions are real. Emotions are powerful. Respect their power. People who ignore the raw power of their emotions do so at their peril.

If it makes you feel better to take a bit off the top, go ahead and do so. With the US Stock Market up so much this year, you probably due for rebalancing your portfolio anyways. What you are doing is managing risks and making the compromise between your rational self and your emotional self.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Outer Marker
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Outer Marker »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am
The S&P is up over 25% this year.

When it is up this much I admit to having an emotional response. I do have a written plan and have sufficient risk tolerance to follow that plan. I rebalance only a couple times per year if at all but this year I feel my reaction is as much emotional as rational. I'm in my 70's and have a 60/40 asset allocation. . . .
If you've comfortably set in your 70's, and feeling emotional/stressed about your gains, might be a good time to consider downshifting to 50/50 or 40/60. As the saying goes, no need to keep playing the game if you've already won. Psychology suggests we feel the pain of loss twice as much as the joy of winning, so it makes sense to err on the side of conservatism. I'd also suggest keeping you fixed income very safe in something other than BND - like a tips ladder, short treasuries, or short tips.
WhyNotUs
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by WhyNotUs »

In addition to helping your kids, you can rebalance by donating some high appreciation shares to a NPO doing important work efficiently.
Outer Marker wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:44 am
Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am
The S&P is up over 25% this year.

When it is up this much I admit to having an emotional response. I do have a written plan and have sufficient risk tolerance to follow that plan. I rebalance only a couple times per year if at all but this year I feel my reaction is as much emotional as rational. I'm in my 70's and have a 60/40 asset allocation. . . .
If you've comfortably set in your 70's, and feeling emotional/stressed about your gains, might be a good time to consider downshifting to 50/50 or 40/60. As the saying goes, no need to keep playing the game if you've already won. Psychology suggests we feel the pain of loss twice as much as the joy of winning, so it makes sense to err on the side of conservatism. I'd also suggest keeping you fixed income very safe in something other than BND - like a tips ladder, short treasuries, or short tips.
I own the next hot stock- VTSAX
keystone
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by keystone »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am I read the financial section of the newspaper every morning and as part of the process take a quick glance at the YTD return of the S&P 500.

The S&P is up over 25% this year.

When it is up this much I admit to having an emotional response. I do have a written plan and have sufficient risk tolerance to follow that plan. I rebalance only a couple times per year if at all but this year I feel my reaction is as much emotional as rational. I'm in my 70's and have a 60/40 asset allocation. While I'm within 5% of that, I did make a minor adjustment - selling 3% of our Roths (about 1% of investment assets) to make gifts to our children.

Anyone else feeling more emotional than rational this year? It could also be related, in part, to the turmoil I see in the world today.
It's discussions like this that make me grateful that I moved the vast majority of our assets into target date funds. I used to have feelings similar to yours but not anymore.
jebmke
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by jebmke »

If you read enough history you will come to realize that the world is in turmoil all the time and has been for millennia.

This is an easy thing to fix. Read the book section; that is the only part of the "newspaper" I read these days. Even the sports has become a click-bait feast.
Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am I read the financial section of the newspaper every morning and as part of the process take a quick glance at the YTD return of the S&P 500.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
Vinny_in_NJ
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Vinny_in_NJ »

I'm newly retired so I haven't lived too long in the retirement financial zone. I have a plan for our asset allocation which for now is 50/50, rebalance which is 6% either way and guardrails if the market falls or keeps going up. I have figured out what expenses I can cut that won't affect our lifestyle too much when the time comes. I also have Plan A which is both of us waiting until 70 to start collecting, my wife doesn't feel comfortable with waiting for hers. A Plan B which which is (was) to have her start collecting if the market falls a lot, she hits FRA in April 2025 and based on our conversations she probably will be collecting then. A Plan C of if the market really is bad and is not showing signs of recovery, I collect SS at FRA which is April 2026.

As was said, follow the plan or modify the plan to make you feel better. You should not be locked into anything that makes you "lose sleep at night". When I knew I was going to and wanted to retire I was very nervous having my money in the company's 401K because I did not have control over where the money was allocated to the extent I have with an IRA. It was a mental thing for me because what happens if the markets fall between now and retirement date. So I took it all and put it into a guaranteed fund that was extremely low growth (lower than a MM fund) but I knew I would not lose any money. Today I have a 50/50 portfolio that I'm OK with if the market goes down.

Don't listen to the noise in financial headlines; I used to listen to CNBC a lot and realized the "experts" know nothing. But do make sure you are comfortable with your investments. The market will go down at some point and nobody knows when and how much.
Doctor Rhythm
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Doctor Rhythm »

Happy Thanksgiving!

I don't read financial news because I actually don't find it helpful or even particularly interesting.

However, if you're having unpleasant emotions about your investments when the market is doing well, then that's a perfectly legitimate reason to reduce risk.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am Anyone else feeling more emotional than rational this year? It could also be related, in part, to the turmoil I see in the world today.
does this help at all:

Image

you probably lived through most of those, granted you might have only been investing through half of them. If you haven't always felt the way you do now even though you likely invested through half of those events, what could account for the difference?

1. Possibly you have more money at stake than you did in the 80s, 90s, etc. so there's more to lose (in dollars. if your allocation is less than when you were younger your percentage losses will be less now than during many of those other events. But people don't focus on losing 20% they focus on losing $200,000 (if they had $1 mil) before they lost 20%. If you're worried about the dollar losses, then you probably have the wrong allocation. You can do something about that.

2. You are seeing almost in real time the negative events (in high definition video played over and over and over) as opposed to maybe hearing about it or reading about it a day or more later in the newspaper or on the 11 o'clock news (remember that?) and by then, a situation may have resolved. Social Media, internet, 24/7 news cycle is showing you what they want to to make you afraid to keep you tuning in. Maybe turn it off. Take a news fast. Just as the stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing, so too is the persistent bad news. There's no shortage of it. But it's your choice if/how you let it affect you.

Image

Image

Source

Image

Source

what do you think?
Last edited by arcticpineapplecorp. on Thu Nov 28, 2024 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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DesertGator
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by DesertGator »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am I read the financial section of the newspaper every morning and as part of the process take a quick glance at the YTD return of the S&P 500.

The S&P is up over 25% this year.

When it is up this much I admit to having an emotional response. I do have a written plan and have sufficient risk tolerance to follow that plan. I rebalance only a couple times per year if at all but this year I feel my reaction is as much emotional as rational. I'm in my 70's and have a 60/40 asset allocation. While I'm within 5% of that, I did make a minor adjustment - selling 3% of our Roths (about 1% of investment assets) to make gifts to our children.

Anyone else feeling more emotional than rational this year? It could also be related, in part, to the turmoil I see in the world today.
What's this "newspaper" thing you mentioned?
UpperNwGuy
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by UpperNwGuy »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am Anyone else feeling more emotional than rational this year? It could also be related, in part, to the turmoil I see in the world today.
Not me. The stock market is behaving normally. It goes up, then it goes down, then it goes up again. We just happen to be in an up year. No need to get emotional.

The world has been in turmoil for my entire life, so this year is no different. By the way, I am about your age.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

DesertGator wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 10:21 am What's this "newspaper" thing you mentioned?
funny, but I think people are even more anxious these days because their phone is pinging them every time something bad happens somewhere in the world (as if you can do anything about it except read all about it) so it's worse than reading a newspaper which you do once a day.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
jebmke
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by jebmke »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 10:26 am
DesertGator wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 10:21 am What's this "newspaper" thing you mentioned?
funny, but I think people are even more anxious these days because their phone is pinging them every time something bad happens somewhere in the world (as if you can do anything about it except read all about it) so it's worse than reading a newspaper which you do once a day.
this is why I have notifications off except for text messages; most of the contacts are set to quiet or very light tone. Spouse has unique tone and account alerts have their own unique tone.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
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celia
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by celia »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am . . . I did make a minor adjustment - selling 3% of our Roths (about 1% of investment assets) to make gifts to our children.
It is one thing to sell/ rebalance, but WITHDRAWING from your Roth is another. If you wanted to gift, why not do it from taxable or tax-deferred? That would make you stop and think about tax implications. In the long term, now you won't be able to get as much tax-free growth as you were getting.

Does your written plan address that?
Last edited by celia on Thu Nov 28, 2024 10:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CoAndy
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by CoAndy »

I am tempted to take some gains, but I did that in April 2017 after the market run up following the 2016 election, and of course I regretted it. I am going to leave things alone this time.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am I did make a minor adjustment - selling 3% of our Roths (about 1% of investment assets) to make gifts to our children.
I know you're not asking about this, but I'm assuming you thought gifting from Roth was superior to gifting from taxable or tax deferred because there were no taxes owed/didn't change your income situation, but was there any possibility to have gifted to them higher cost basis shares from taxable instead (newest shares most recently purchased)?

And/or if you have taxable investments, could you look to send dividends to settlement and then give those proceeds as gifts in subsequent years instead of having to sell shares from taxable investments or Roth??
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David_Cary
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by David_Cary »

I realize this isn't the boglehead way but you can look at 2 years of outsize gains and CAPE and conclude to take money off the table.

That isn't current events and emotion. Being reductive and saying it is emotional or responding to global turmoil is not accurate.

Yes, OP said something about emotion but it wasn't about a terrorist attack, it was about regression to the mean feelings. That is somewhat rational.

I am newish to bogleheads and I appreciate the philosophy but it can be bit dogmatic.

I lowered my stock allocation a bit after the election related run-up. Changing allocation a bit because of world events seems reasonable to me. Even when you are wrong, you haven't hurt yourself that much.
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Peter Foley
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Peter Foley »

The wide range of answers is about what I expected. When emotion is mentioned in terms of investment decision making it raises many valid questions regarding one’s financial plan and their ability to stick to that plan.

Just to address a couple items that were noted.
Withdrawal from Roth (celia’s and articpinapplecorp’s comments) – I use QCD’s to keep my total income below one of the IRMAA thresholds. I have a relatively small taxable account and consider it part of my emergency funds. We do a substantial gift to children and grandchildren in alternating years and most of those were stock transfers. Our Roths are S&P 500 and Total Stock Market and that is where we have seen the increase this year.
I hold only a modest amount of my bond allocation in bond funds. I primarily use stable value funds and CD and treasury ladders.

I was a 70/30 investor prior to retirement – based on a Wade Pfau article (rising equity glide path) I went to 55/45 just prior to retirement and then let it drift back up to 60/40. I felt just a bit of reassurance in noting a couple individuals had reacted as I did. I normally only look to rebalance in January and July when I calculate if my 5% threshold has been met.

About 30 years ago I attended a lecture by a “futurist” and it changed my perspective regarding the news. The point he made was that while there is always turmoil in the world it is different in the modern era because of “modern” media. The “have nots now know what the have’s have” and are therefore more active about closing the distance between the two groups. This leads to more larger conflicts in a world with many alliances.
I greatly appreciate the background information provided by articpinapplecorp. Good context with regard to world events and their emotional impact.

Thanks to all for the feedback.
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Squirrel208
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Squirrel208 »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am The S&P is up over 25% this year.

When it is up this much I admit to having an emotional response. I do have a written plan and have sufficient risk tolerance to follow that plan. I rebalance only a couple times per year if at all but this year I feel my reaction is as much emotional as rational.
Just curious—for perspective—did you feel similarly last year when the S&P 500 grew +24%? If you'd have reduced your S&P 500 equity position then, you'd have missed out on this year's 25% growth.

Or how about in 2019, when it finished +29% for the year, or 2020 when it was +16%, or 2021 when it finished +27%?

Alternatively, what about 2022 when it lost 16% on the year? Did you increase your equity allocation and positions then, when the price was significantly discounted, or did you just stay the course and maintain your AA per your written plan while waiting for the market to recover?

No need to answer—as those are all rhetorical questions—but no doubt you see my obvious point.
yules
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by yules »

Zipster wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:37 am I “took some off the table” in April (7 months ago).

I don’t regret it, but S&P 500 is up 13% since then. The MM I put it into is up ~5%.
How is you Money Market down 5%???
Doctor Rhythm
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Doctor Rhythm »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 11:54 am
About 30 years ago I attended a lecture by a “futurist” and it changed my perspective regarding the news. The point he made was that while there is always turmoil in the world it is different in the modern era because of “modern” media. The “have nots now know what the have’s have” and are therefore more active about closing the distance between the two groups. This leads to more larger conflicts in a world with many alliances.
I'm reading this and coming up with an entirely different take. Namely, how can I get a paid gig telling other people about things I imagine might be true but haven't bothered to study rigorously or validate?

Thank goodness you didn't believe enough in this "futurist" to invest conservatively for the last 30 years. But any day now, he could be right....
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Clever_Username
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Clever_Username »

yules wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:29 pm
Zipster wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:37 am I “took some off the table” in April (7 months ago).

I don’t regret it, but S&P 500 is up 13% since then. The MM I put it into is up ~5%.
How is you Money Market down 5%???
I think they were saying it was up approximately 5% -- it's a tilde, not a dash.

I had to pause when reading it too, asking myself the same question.
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ByThePond
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by ByThePond »

yules wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:29 pm
Zipster wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:37 am I “took some off the table” in April (7 months ago).

I don’t regret it, but S&P 500 is up 13% since then. The MM I put it into is up ~5%.
How is you Money Market down 5%???
He used a tilde, not a negative sign, meaning "about". He's UP about 5%. I had to look closely too. :beer
edit: Beaten by 1 minute!
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windaar
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by windaar »

Follow your IPS. Any change to the IPS should be rational and not emotional. Maybe you've gotten your risk tolerance wrong and should be at 50/50 or 40/60 rather than 60/40.
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KlangFool
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by KlangFool »

OP,

I took some money off the table (my portfolio) because I have more than "enough". This has nothing to do with whatever the market may do from now on. Counting social security, I am in between 60X to 70X. So, I set up my harvesting threshold.

For example,

A) When my 60/40 portfolio hit 2.1M, I harvest 50K from my portfolio and set it aside as cash.

B) When my 60/40 portfolio hit 2.2M, I harvest 50K from my portfolio and set it aside as cash.

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Raspberry-503
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Raspberry-503 »

That why is use rebalancing bands instead of time intervals to rebalance. When the position is 5% absolute or 20% relative off, I rebalance that particular asst class back to where it's supposed to be.
That basically is how I "take money off the table", or add more, as need be.
investuntilimrich
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by investuntilimrich »

What if you "take some money off the table" and it's up another x%?

What if you took "money off the table" a year ago, two years, or five years ago?

Personally, I only invest in things I have long term confidence in. For me, that's index funds (majority), gold, and US real estate. Once I buy, I stay put, I never sell anything. I sold real estate in 2021 thinking the same thing "take some money off the table" and I sure that, I got about half what those would have been worth if I held onto until now... a profit but also a lot less than I could have gotten plus rents are up considerably so it was a double missed opportunity. Not doing it again, buy and hold forever.
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c.coyle
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by c.coyle »

VBIAX. I'm blissfully oblivious.
Retired: VBIAX 100%
tesuzuki2002
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am I read the financial section of the newspaper every morning and as part of the process take a quick glance at the YTD return of the S&P 500.

The S&P is up over 25% this year.

Anyone else feeling more emotional than rational this year? It could also be related, in part, to the turmoil I see in the world today.
S&P is up 25%... Personally, I am up 43% this year and I continue to bring new money to the table and invest. I brought in another $1500 today. At some point the market will consolidate... I will aggressively buy more of whatever sector gets hit that is within my Asset allocation..
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by ScubaHogg »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am I read the financial section of the newspaper every morning and as part of the process take a quick glance at the YTD return of the S&P 500.
Don’t do this. Astrology is as useful as the daily financial “news”
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

As you all know I went into equities more than usual in 2021 and 2022, and kept it up in 2023 and 2024. I’m so grateful for the wisdom of this board. The total market and S&P funds have done so well. I’d be disingenuous if I said I wasn’t tempted to take some profits. But instead I’ll stay the course and just adjust my future contributions a bit.
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Fri Nov 29, 2024 6:07 pm, edited 4 times in total.
moneyflowin
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by moneyflowin »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am I read the financial section of the newspaper every morning and as part of the process take a quick glance at the YTD return of the S&P 500.
That was your mistake. As a WSJ writer once said, their job is to write the same thing every day but make it sound different.
BowBog
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by BowBog »

I don't see any problem with taking some gains now, if you've won the game stop playing. If you're more comfortable with a 50/50 allocation or whatever, now would be a good time to rebalance.

I'm retiring at year end and its time to take my foot off the gas to switch from basically a 80/20 allocation down to a more appropriate level of around 60/40. I've been in the market for over 30 years and I don't want to watch the investments drop 50% again.
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Padlin »

I’ve been having similar thoughts. I have 2 years left before SS so I’ll take 6 months worth of expenses out come early Jan. My thinking was to grab some of the overage in equities and put it in the sweeps MM fund, at least the 6m worth. Feeling guilty about it I dug out my IPS which I haven’t looked at since I wrote it. Says to rebalance at the EOY or 10% bands, which I haven’t hit, so I’m holding off. Is guilt another emotion?

The IPS was written in 2003ish, it’s in bad need of a rewrite.
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Hot Sauce
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Hot Sauce »

The rookie investor wants to sell when the stock market drops a lot.

The novice investor wants to sell when the stock market goes up a lot.

The wise experienced investor doesn’t care about the market; they just stick with their plan.
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Hot Sauce »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri Nov 29, 2024 5:32 pm As you all know I went into equities more than usual in 2021 and 2022, and kept it up in 2023 and 2024. I’m so grateful for the wisdom of this board. The total market and S&P funds have done so well. I’d be disingenuous if I said I wasn’t tempted to take some profits. But instead I’ll stay the course and just adjust my future contributions a bit.
Didn’t you pull back your purchases of VTI when it reached about $215 per share, thinking that price was a bit high at the time?
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Hot Sauce wrote: Fri Nov 29, 2024 9:05 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri Nov 29, 2024 5:32 pm As you all know I went into equities more than usual in 2021 and 2022, and kept it up in 2023 and 2024. I’m so grateful for the wisdom of this board. The total market and S&P funds have done so well. I’d be disingenuous if I said I wasn’t tempted to take some profits. But instead I’ll stay the course and just adjust my future contributions a bit.
Didn’t you pull back your purchases of VTI when it reached about $215 per share, thinking that price was a bit high at the time?
Yes I did - good memory you have. I’d bought VTI between $187-215 (now it’s almost $300), but didn’t want to buy higher. As I recall someone called me out on that at the time. Not my finest hour. But I kept buying FSKAX (Fidelity total market) in my IRA, which I maxed out each year plus the catch up, and I ratcheted up my s&p 500 purchases in my 401k (maxed + catch up) to 100 percent of future contributions so it is at 42 percent equities now.
In other areas I snapped up a lot of 5 percent treasuries and CDs. The CDs matured and they just aren’t tax effective for me given the high state taxes and my bracket.

I’ll be 60 in a few years, lord willing, and I’d feel better if I’d made $ in the stock market rather than lost. The money I have in equities isn’t enough to make a large difference in my financial future. Although maybe if I left it in it would be!
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Sat Nov 30, 2024 9:34 am, edited 6 times in total.
jebmke
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by jebmke »

BowBog wrote: Fri Nov 29, 2024 6:00 pm I don't see any problem with taking some gains now, if you've won the game stop playing. If you're more comfortable with a 50/50 allocation or whatever, now would be a good time to rebalance.

I'm retiring at year end and its time to take my foot off the gas to switch from basically a 80/20 allocation down to a more appropriate level of around 60/40. I've been in the market for over 30 years and I don't want to watch the investments drop 50% again.
But that decision is based on changing personal conditions. I did the same, but without regard to market conditions or outlooks at the time.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
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dogagility
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by dogagility »

The S&P is up over 25% this year.
Anyone else feeling more emotional than rational this year?
Feeling great! I don't have any desire to change my asset allocation based upon recent market performance.
It could also be related, in part, to the turmoil I see in the world today.
One of the keys in life and investing, in my opinion, is to not consume regional, state, national, or international "news". I do find it useful to read the local town news, but they don't spread anger and fear.
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Parkinglotracer »

It’s not market timing if you change your IPS every time you feel like you should buy or sell. ( that was a joke!!).

I am a 65/35 guy at age 63 with my monthly expenses covered by pensions. I do 50% domestic equities, 15% intl equities, 35% 5 year treasury ladder.
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by muffins14 »

yules wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:29 pm
Zipster wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:37 am I “took some off the table” in April (7 months ago).

I don’t regret it, but S&P 500 is up 13% since then. The MM I put it into is up ~5%.
How is you Money Market down 5%???
The tilde (~) means “approximately”. Also the contextual clue is that someone usually would not say “ my fund is up minus 5” or “my fund is down plus 5” but saying “my fund is up about 5” is more common to say as a turn of phrase
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by TheTimeLord »

Since I don't understand your goals, objectives or situation I really can't comment on what you should do. I can tell you what I have done with the gains my portfolio has made since the beginning of September, I have allocated them roughly 50% to increasing the size of the rungs in my TIPS ladder and 50% to my Risk Portfolio. The percentages were basically happenstance but the reallocation is part of my plan for periods with what I consider outsized returns. To be clear I am only referencing portfolio gains incurred since the beginning of September, not the full year's gains.
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Olemiss540 »

I honestly believe there is 0% value to be had by digesting main stream media outlets. Financially or emotionally. Enjoy your life, family, friends, and fellow humans. Ignore the people that get paid to make you worried, scared, distraught, or anxious.

Seems the older one gets, the more they focus on these news stories and the less they focus on their own news going on.
I hold index funds because I do not overestimate my ability to pick stocks OR stock pickers.
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by furiouschads »

I'm at 100% equity (VTI and BRKB) in my portfolio. I retired in 2022 with an inflation-adjusted pension and a 2.25% mortgage. Waiting until 70 to take SS. Lots of solar panels to hedge against energy price increases. FEHB and Medicare Part A.

Closest that I come to rebalancing is the twice-a-year pull based on VPW.
Normal is an illusion. What is normal for the spider is chaos for the fly. --Charles Addams. #613 in 2022 BH prediction contest. #42 in 2023. Not that I am keeping track.
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by Tundrama »

Olemiss540 wrote: Sat Nov 30, 2024 8:46 am I honestly believe there is 0% value to be had by digesting main stream media outlets. Financially or emotionally. Enjoy your life, family, friends, and fellow humans. Ignore the people that get paid to make you worried, scared, distraught, or anxious.

Seems the older one gets, the more they focus on these news stories and the less they focus on their own news going on.
I’m 60. When I was young, the big joke was folks who actually read the National Enquirer newspaper, back then.

Well, financial news these days, is nothing more than that, in my opinion. Remember the gold rush…it wasn’t finding gold that made most folks rich, it was selling the Stuff, to those wanting to find the gold that made people rich.

However, however, however, if you a person who is in financial turmoil, I do believe and recommend some of the podcasts/pundits who have advice about fixing financial tornadoes. But that’s my threshold for advice from the media regarding finances. May as well discuss with a Kansas weatherman what they think you should do.
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winterfan
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by winterfan »

Earlier this year, we added some more bonds to our portfolio. We had a 80/20 allocation, and moved to a 70/30 split. We will rebalance once a year. My spouse thought we were a little too aggressive and I agreed given how close we are to retirement. I also took money off the table in my child's 529 plan (was 100% stocks, now 50% stocks/50% MM). She is roughly two years from going to school though, so I figured going a little more conservative was prudent. I had no idea how much the market was up percentage wise when I did these moves. They were mostly driven by the ages of everyone in the family.
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Re: Take some money off the table?

Post by CuriousGeorgeTx »

Peter Foley wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 9:23 am I read the financial section of the newspaper every morning and as part of the process take a quick glance at the YTD return of the S&P 500.
This is the problem.

Warren Buffett advises individuals to throw away their brokerage statements unopened. This advice is rooted in his long-term investment philosophy, which emphasizes the importance of patience and avoiding emotional decisions based on short-term market fluctuations.
By not opening their brokerage statements, investors can avoid the temptation to make impulsive decisions based on daily or weekly market movements. This approach helps investors stay focused on their long-term goals and avoid the emotional rollercoaster that can come with frequent market checks.

If you stop looking at it everyday, the stress will go away.
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