This is long -- doing a lot of mental processing. Thanks in advance for reading.
My questions for the community:
- What am I not thinking of?
- What resources help you process a change like this?
- Any advice on how health insurance would work
- Poke holes in my thinking below
A summary of our situation:
- Income would drop to zero
- LCOL area (Tennessee)
- Paid off house
- After tax annual living budget (no vacations, home upgrades, etc.) is around $50,000 not including health insurance
- Only debt: car payment for 2 more years, 1.99%, baked into annual expenses
- Investments of ~$800k in 401ks, Roth IRAs, Traditional IRAs (from rollovers), HSAs, and two small post-tax accounts
- Cash in checking accounts (4%): ~$40k
- Cash in Vanguard VMXX (~4.65%): $100k - building up our emergency fund and saving for hardwood floor replacement
By my math, we have 2.8 years of cash available for this emergency, not including health insurance. I could've earned more return in the stock market on the cash sitting there, but incredibly thankful for the "sleep at night" aspect. Would be crushed if it was invested and went down 20%, for example.
Also, I am not planning on any severance. The company will claw back 60% of the "employer match" they have put into my 401k due to my tenure, but I have accounted for this in the above amounts.
Health insurance:
My understanding is my insurance will cut off on my last day, which is hilarious.
With our income going to zero (besides interest), I believe we will qualify for TennCare and CHIP (CoverKids in Tennessee). I have no idea about how this works.
I went to Healthcare.gov but when you put in income of $33,000 or less, it says we wouldn't be able to buy a plan because of Medicare/CHIP in Tennessee.
Thankfully, my wife and kids all just had their recent checkups for health and dental, flu shots, etc. I usually handle my check-ups in Q1. Am in generally good health but wear contacts so need an annual eye exam next summer.
Re-employment Opportunities and Income Recovery:
I have been working in the recruiting space my entire career. There are a lot of layoffs hitting these teams right now, some jobs moving overseas, and AI is being introduced. My prior income was in the upper $100s and I am not confident I will quickly land a role at that level. Being 40 and now with gray hair, I worry a bit about age discrimination. I have not networked as well as I should have, but have former boss' that are aware of my situation and can assist.
My wife at one point was an elementary music teacher and could return to that. She has taught piano on the side as well. The piano teaching would bring in a couple of hundred per month. Considering our low monthly expense this would extend our runway.
We were already considering starting an online business and would accelerate those plans. I have also had a gaming-focused YouTube channel in the past that earned a couple hundred dollars per month. Not anticipating any of this covering the monthly expenses; just pointing out we have prior experience and this is less of a "hope and dream we could do this" and were already working on plans before this news.
Stress, Health, Lifestyle, and Coast FIRE:
The good news is regardless if the layoff happens in December or not, we recently decided this job and company were no longer a fit for me. My hours are long, my stress is high, the team doing the work has shrunk, and the workload has increased. It has not been a healthy place for me for some time. Thus why we were working on the side to build something of our own, and I've already updated my resume and sent it out for review from mentors.
After 19 years straight of zero layoffs or significant time off between jobs, I need to decompress. As a Boglehead with a sense of security tied to employment, this scares me. But even I can admit... I need a break. This could be fortuitous. I would aim to take 2-3 months off, reset my life, and reset my exercise routines.
I also want to spend more time with my kids. The work/life balance has been too far on the work side for about a year. My kids worry about me and ask me to stop working. They will be out of the house in the next decade or so, and I know this time is important.
I have looked to see how close we might be to Coast FIRE. My thought experiment here is if we chose to do something completely different (build a business, immediately take an easy job, whatever) that covered our annual spend, the $800k investments + $140,000 cash becomes "invested assets".
I've used the Coast Fire Calculator by WalletBurst (not sure if I can link it here) with these inputs:
- Age: 40
- Retirement Age: 56
- Annual Spending in Retirement: $70,000 (to account a bit for taxes, health insurance, and not living a barebones lifestyle during unemployment emergency)
- Invested Assets: $940,000 (investments + cash)
- Investment Growth Rate: 7%
- Inflation: 3%
- Safe Withdrawal Rate: 4%
It says at my current age and retirement at 56, we need $934,339, and would be Coast FIRE right now.
At 3.5% SWR, retirement age increases to 60.
At 8% growth and 3.5% SWR, retirement age remains 56.
If we drop the invested assets to $800k:
- 7% growth, 4% SWR: Retirement age is 60
- 7% growth, 3.5% SWR: Retirement age is 64
- 8% growth, 4% SWR: Retirement age is 56
- 8% growth, 3.5% SWR: Retirement age is 59
Or we could do something different, work an "easier" job that is less stressful while building something of our own.
My original plan was continuing to put 50%+ of my income into investments for a few more years, then pull the plug.
Social Security Impact on Withdrawal Rate:
I've also used OpenSocialSecurity and ssa.tools to get a ballpark of what our Social Security Income might look like. If we didn't earn another penny of income (0% chance of that, but still) and took SS at 70 (spouse at 62) we would get (current listed amount and 66% of this to account for SS getting slashed):
- Me 63, Her 62: $606 or $400 per month
- Me 70, her 69 total with spouse benefit: $4,009 or $2,646 per month
All in all, I know we will be fine and am looking at this as an opportunity to reset.
I am nervous most about health insurance and not thinking of something during a transition period that would catch us by surprise.
Thanks again if you made it this far on Thanksgiving!