Bombed in Supermicro

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yankees60
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by yankees60 »

WhitePuma wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 8:49 am I did sell it b/c as noted upthread, it is not something I should have bought nor would I buy today. This was part of my lesson learned.
Congratulations on having the fortitude to do so!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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yankees60
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by yankees60 »

WhitePuma wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 12:46 pm
aristotelian wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:31 am
WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?

For me, the appropriate type/amount of shame and next steps would depend a lot on the context.
Per advice given upthread, I’ve chosen (going forward) to not feel any more shame (than I’ve already beaten myself up with), but rather to focus all my energies on learning the lesson for the benefit of the future.
Super WISE choice / decision!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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yankees60
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by yankees60 »

beyou wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 3:51 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 12:14 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:58 am I lost money (thankfully not much as I always bought 4-5 stocks, never betting on one, ever) TWICE on Cisco!

Being a Network Engineer, I was mistaken in my feelings about Cisco.

Broken Man 1999
Back in the day, I was a software developer. VMS was clearly the best operating system, so I bought DEC. That taught me a lot about markets and I’ve been pretty much a BH since.
OTOH at some point I was an IT manager who dealt with MANY vendors, and could see that some were way overhyped and some clearly were on their way up and undervalued companies. Yes specialists can get married to the tech they know and invest in same, which is doubling down on your risk even if you are sure you know the tech is great and promising.

I recall the Worldcom (MCI) debacle. I had inherited a contract with them, and they were absolutely the worst firm to deal with. I could see they were either poorly run or plain fraudulent. I had a relative who was a broker trying to pitch me on Worldcom, and I told him not only would I not buy, he should sell for all his clients. He said "all my clients made lots of money on Worldcom", so I said then "sell high" before the issues I face as a customer impact the stock. He disagreed. His clients lost $ and I did not.

Sometimes your career involvement with a stock can give valuable insights, but sometimes it can blind you.

Note I was in tech but working for mutual fund managers mostly. I saw how these guys picked stocks and even the best and brightest credentialed persons might as well be throwing darts. I moved to index funds after seeing how active funds are run. If Harvard MBAs can't pick stocks well, why would I think I can do better. I did better for a while but realized I should quit while I am ahead, a luxury no fund manager had.
GREAT information / stories!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by JakeyLee »

On Monday, September 5th of 1995 I placed a bet on the Los Angeles Raiders to beat the San Francisco 49ers. It was a $1,000 bet, and at the time, almost all the money I had. I’d put countless hours of research into this bet. And I was getting points. Needless to say, I lost that bet. It wasn’t even close. It’s comin’ up on 30 years. I still keep that little bet slip in my wallet. It’s a great reminder for me. I’ve carried that slip, and mindset to my career and investments.

Here’s the funny part: had I won that bet, I’d surely kept gambling. And blow it all up eventually.

I wouldn’t stress, if I were you. But don’t ever forget. Some lessons are more expensive than others. :beer
“On balance, the financial system subtracts value from society” | -John Bogle
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Hacksawdave »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 12:14 pm Back in the day, I was a software developer. VMS was clearly the best operating system, so I bought DEC. That taught me a lot about markets and I’ve been pretty much a BH since.
Wow, I remember the old DEC/VAX machines from the 70s. Some of the DEC guys left to form Data General, and that was the first system I learned to program COBOL on. The old DG/Eclipse. Ah yes, when the minis were going to dethrone the big IBM mainframes. Or not..... :shock:
Normchad
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Normchad »

The good news is you learned a great lesson. So it’s not a total,loss.

I think Supermicro is great; I’m not surprised others do as well. That’s the thing though, great companies with great products and happy customers do not guarantee it to be a great investment. It might be, but it might not be.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by bknoth »

1) Welcome to the school of investing. It can be expensive.
2) The smart thing to do is invest in index funds - put most of your money in them (there's lots of good advice in this forum). You can learn a lot by investing in a few individual stocks (I had my children buy a few shares in JNJ, say, just to understand what a stock is, dividends, etc.) Otherwise, they are in index funds.
3) You are probably here because you are interested in investing - do a lot of reading (there's a list of recommended books on Bogleheads).
4) Watch "Fastgraphs" videos on Youtube. You'll learn about the difference between the price of a stock and the value of a stock. The image below, taken from Fastgraphs, shows the price (black line) and per-share value (orange line) of SMCI stock. The peak in the black line is in March, right around when you bought. The black line being so high above the orange line is a big warning sign. After watching a few Fastgraphs videos, you'll have a much better understanding of value vs. price.
5) Beware of hype and "buy this hot stock now!" articles and posts. Inevitably, the hyped stocks are way overpriced.

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Watty
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Watty »

WhitePuma wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 1:31 pm Well, I have already put myself through some shame. Including but not limited to announcing my error on a public forum that is all about indexing and not single stock short term trading.

What sort of shame did you have in mind?
There is sort of a "Hall of Shame" in this old thread which has a couple of hundred posts.

"What is the Worst Financial Decision/Mistake You Have Made?"

viewtopic.php?t=333095
xilex
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by xilex »

WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?
I sell it all and keep one share to remember my mistake.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by abuss368 »

WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?
Hi WhitePuma -

The positive you learned this very valuable lesson early in life I presume and not later when the stakes could be much higher.

Own the stock and bond markets at the lowest cost is the best strategy.

A few index funds is all that is needed.

Best.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
bongo
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by bongo »

WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?
This might become one of those oft-quoted threads about the danger of chasing the "hot" stock (I've done the same before during the dotcom - cratered a small IRA from 5k to $50). Last August you were looking to go 50% tech stocks but got talked out of it in a long thread, then maybe again in Jan, and finally bought in March at the peak. No matter how many words of caution someone hears/reads, some things just have to be experienced to feel it.

(otoh, if you had just gone ahead and purchased SMCI in Aug, you would have been up 5x at the top, and still even 2x now, so the lesson is a bit muddy - you know, HODL and all that)
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Feldman »

WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?
Perhaps you are a good candidate for Vanguard Investment Advice Services, as they can help prevent investors from acting on their self-admitted bad impulses.

You can learn more about what they have to offer and comparative costs and services here:

https://investor.vanguard.com/advice/co ... ent-advice
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Valuethinker »

Harmanic wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:04 am
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:58 am I lost money (thankfully not much as I always bought 4-5 stocks, never betting on one, ever) TWICE on Cisco!

Being a Network Engineer, I was mistaken in my feelings about Cisco.

Broken Man 1999
I see today's chip stocks as parallels to the Internet stocks of the late 1990s, like CISCO, Sun Micro, DEC, EMC, and WorldCom.

The meme stocks that peaked in 2021 and are now down more than 90% are like the dotcom stocks of the late 1990s.

People will say, what about Amazon? The answer is what about Value America, Webvan, Yahoo, etc.

On the other hand, a total market fund from the late 1990s...
The analogy is inexact in this way:

- [Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek], TSMC is still likely to be the world's biggest silicon chip manufacturer in 10 years time. And there's likely to be a lot more silicon chips out there

- Nvidia I don't know enough to call, but it's certainly proven itself to be very nimble & agile. And the Founder is still very much involved with the business - he is who created that culture

- Samsung is also still likely to be around

- barring some technology change, so is ASM Lithography

- Intel is a question mark, granted. But the market is already saying that in the current Intel valuation

- I will predict ARM will be around. Not because it's a British company (wearing a flag on my sleeve) but because there's a dominant design in IP-licensed processors (ie ones where the OEM just pays a royalty for the use of the design), and that's ARM. Hard for anyone to knock that out because of all the software libraries of applications built up, trained engineers at customers etc.

So Sun Micro, DEC, Worldcom (fraudulent), EMC perhaps? They all disappeared as companies/ product lines/ models.

Chips have an enormous momentum, and making chips well is something it takes decades to learn how to do --- TSMC has a depth of knowledge that is practically almost insurmountable. Unless we someone stop using silicon chips. Just building new fabs takes years - and there's a global shortage of the right skills. Only the Chinese, perhaps, are capable of catching up to the incumbents.

Where I would agree with you is that the valuations look over-hyped. OTOH Nvidia's performance is nothing short of stunning. What might happen is "dot com bubble like". Money dries up for the AI boom - Facebook, Microsoft, Google etc. Then the cutbacks in spending flow back through to the semiconductor industry, and the PE ratios look extreme against revised earnings, and down we go -- cuts in both E, and P/E.

Harder to blow MSFT out of the water given its desktop near monopoly (Office more so than Windows). However the PE does look extended.

Apple? I thought people would stop buying the latest iphone generations ago. Hasn't happened yet.

Google and Meta? What they provide for consumers seems to be getting worse and worse. However in digital advertising, they really are the only game in town (other than Apple, arguably).

Amazon? Its greatest risk would appear to be anti-trust related.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by yankees60 »

Valuethinker wrote: Sun Aug 11, 2024 11:30 am
Harmanic wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:04 am
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:58 am I lost money (thankfully not much as I always bought 4-5 stocks, never betting on one, ever) TWICE on Cisco!

Being a Network Engineer, I was mistaken in my feelings about Cisco.

Broken Man 1999
I see today's chip stocks as parallels to the Internet stocks of the late 1990s, like CISCO, Sun Micro, DEC, EMC, and WorldCom.

The meme stocks that peaked in 2021 and are now down more than 90% are like the dotcom stocks of the late 1990s.

People will say, what about Amazon? The answer is what about Value America, Webvan, Yahoo, etc.

On the other hand, a total market fund from the late 1990s...
The analogy is inexact in this way:

- [Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek], TSMC is still likely to be the world's biggest silicon chip manufacturer in 10 years time. And there's likely to be a lot more silicon chips out there

- Nvidia I don't know enough to call, but it's certainly proven itself to be very nimble & agile. And the Founder is still very much involved with the business - he is who created that culture

- Samsung is also still likely to be around

- barring some technology change, so is ASM Lithography

- Intel is a question mark, granted. But the market is already saying that in the current Intel valuation

- I will predict ARM will be around. Not because it's a British company (wearing a flag on my sleeve) but because there's a dominant design in IP-licensed processors (ie ones where the OEM just pays a royalty for the use of the design), and that's ARM. Hard for anyone to knock that out because of all the software libraries of applications built up, trained engineers at customers etc.

So Sun Micro, DEC, Worldcom (fraudulent), EMC perhaps? They all disappeared as companies/ product lines/ models.

Chips have an enormous momentum, and making chips well is something it takes decades to learn how to do --- TSMC has a depth of knowledge that is practically almost insurmountable. Unless we someone stop using silicon chips. Just building new fabs takes years - and there's a global shortage of the right skills. Only the Chinese, perhaps, are capable of catching up to the incumbents.

Where I would agree with you is that the valuations look over-hyped. OTOH Nvidia's performance is nothing short of stunning. What might happen is "dot com bubble like". Money dries up for the AI boom - Facebook, Microsoft, Google etc. Then the cutbacks in spending flow back through to the semiconductor industry, and the PE ratios look extreme against revised earnings, and down we go -- cuts in both E, and P/E.

Harder to blow MSFT out of the water given its desktop near monopoly (Office more so than Windows). However the PE does look extended.

Apple? I thought people would stop buying the latest iphone generations ago. Hasn't happened yet.

Google and Meta? What they provide for consumers seems to be getting worse and worse. However in digital advertising, they really are the only game in town (other than Apple, arguably).

Amazon? Its greatest risk would appear to be anti-trust related.
Would love to be able to throw you back 25 years to 1999 and do a similar analysis of the above from that point of view. Are you able to guess what you may have written in 1999?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Harmanic »

Valuethinker wrote: Sun Aug 11, 2024 11:30 am
Chips have an enormous momentum, and making chips well is something it takes decades to learn how to do --- TSMC has a depth of knowledge that is practically almost insurmountable. Unless we someone stop using silicon chips. Just building new fabs takes years - and there's a global shortage of the right skills. Only the Chinese, perhaps, are capable of catching up to the incumbents.
I recall that the same things were said about Internet companies in the 1990s. Not the dotcom meme stock companies, but the "Pics and Shovels" companies that made fiber optics, switches, routers, and storage. They were right that these technologies would grow in importance, but were wrong about the company prospects.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Ace300 »

These mistakes, as many have previously indicated, can be important lessons that actually cause you to lose less in the long-run because you avoid making the same mistake twice (or at least are highly aware and sensitive to the risks).

Back in the 2007-08 GFC, I had money in a regional bank that was shut down by the Feds and had all its assets seized. Needless to say the stock went to zero and 100% loss (no chance recovering when the stock is delisted :))

Aware of single stock exposure/risk, I though ETF's were safe(r). Buying ARKK in early 2021 at ~$150/share taught me highly concentrated is highly concentrated. This one I hold on to and see in my brokerage fund daily, or at least every time I login, as a reminder to make sure I'm not riding the wave of exuberance or overly-hyped market sentiment when I make my next purchase.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by TomatoTomahto »

Ace300 wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 3:58 pm Aware of single stock exposure/risk, I though ETF's were safe(r). Buying ARKK in early 2021 at ~$150/share taught me highly concentrated is highly concentrated. This one I hold on to and see in my brokerage fund daily, or at least every time I login, as a reminder to make sure I'm not riding the wave of exuberance or overly-hyped market sentiment when I make my next purchase.
I should have known better, but I was going to buy ARKK and my twenty-something son talked me out of it: “Dad, come on, you know better.” He sometimes reminds me that I pretty much nailed the top when I was going to buy; cheeky SOB, but I deserve it. :D
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Nicolas »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 4:04 pm
Ace300 wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 3:58 pm Aware of single stock exposure/risk, I though ETF's were safe(r). Buying ARKK in early 2021 at ~$150/share taught me highly concentrated is highly concentrated. This one I hold on to and see in my brokerage fund daily, or at least every time I login, as a reminder to make sure I'm not riding the wave of exuberance or overly-hyped market sentiment when I make my next purchase.
I should have known better, but I was going to buy ARKK and my twenty-something son talked me out of it: “Dad, come on, you know better.” He sometimes reminds me that I pretty much nailed the top when I was going to buy; cheeky SOB, but I deserve it. :D
I foolishly bought 1000 shares of ARKK at $100. A week or so later I second-guessed myself and sold it at $103, pocketing $3K. I was one of the lucky ones.
Last edited by Nicolas on Fri Aug 16, 2024 9:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by wwhan »

The big jump in technology stocks is due to the mania around AI software, hardware and applications.

Supermicro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is not a semiconductor company, they are server hardware manufacturer.

TSMC foundry is the largest manufacturer of semiconductors in the world by revenue. TSMC was founded by Morris Chang (former CEO) in 1987.

Morris Chang learned a lot during his 25-year career (1958–1983) at Texas Instruments, he rose up in the ranks to become the group vice president responsible for TI's worldwide semiconductor business. Among other things, he learned about yield, profit and how fabs are run.

Texas Instruments paid for and sent Morris Chang to Stanford for a PhD.

TSMC came about after Morris Chang left the USA and returned to Taiwan; "The Premier [of Taiwan] who appoints the president of ITRI told me that he particularly wanted to use my ability to transfer technology from just research results to economic benefits for Taiwan industry."

Morris Chang - Oral History Interview: https://www.semi.org/en/Oral-History-In ... rris-Chang

The top 25 global semiconductors in 2023: https://news.futunn.com/en/post/4114942 ... 4985585613

Note a number of the semiconductor companies marked with note 2 are Fabless. The ones marked with note 1 are just Foundries.

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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?
At least you can try to get some back in the lawsuits that are surely being drafted this morning.
Being wrong compounds forever.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by devillif311 »

WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?
Use this as a learning point for why (most) bogleheads stay away from individual stocks. For example, If you like chips, buy chips ETF's....it will save you when some companies fall due to risk outside of your control. Look what happened to Intel....how could anyone predict that they would build bad chips? If you're not an insider you are an outsider. remember that
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by anoop »

devillif311 wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 9:29 am
WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?
Use this as a learning point for why (most) bogleheads stay away from individual stocks. If you like chips, buy chips ETF's....it will save you when some companies fall due to risk outside of your control. Look what happened to Intel....how could anyone predict that they would build bad chips? If you're not an insider you are an outsider. remember that
Intel was my only stock holding around 2015 or so. I averaged in at around 28. Rode all the way to 70+. Sold at 48 years later (I think 2020) after then CEO pivoted to say they won't be able to deliver the next process on time and would start using TSMC (after repeatedly pushing the delivery date out but saying it was critical and then downplaying the criticality). If you're the industry, you can kind of tell when trouble is brewing. I could not do the same for a stock that I don't understand.

The problem with SMCI is a different problem. It was in a bubble like Zoom. I dabbled a little in Zoom as it was falling (because I knew it was a good company and would execute) and lost a bunch. Lesson learned there--stay away from bubble stocks.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by devillif311 »

anoop wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 9:42 am
devillif311 wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 9:29 am
WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?
Use this as a learning point for why (most) bogleheads stay away from individual stocks. If you like chips, buy chips ETF's....it will save you when some companies fall due to risk outside of your control. Look what happened to Intel....how could anyone predict that they would build bad chips? If you're not an insider you are an outsider. remember that
Intel was my only stock holding around 2015 or so. I averaged in at around 28. Rode all the way to 70+. Sold at 48 years later (I think 2020) after then CEO pivoted to say they won't be able to deliver the next process on time and would start using TSMC (after repeatedly pushing the delivery date out but saying it was critical and then downplaying the criticality). If you're the industry, you can kind of tell when trouble is brewing. I could not do the same for a stock that I don't understand.

The problem with SMCI is a different problem. It was in a bubble like Zoom. I dabbled a little in Zoom as it was falling (because I knew it was a good company and would execute) and lost a bunch. Lesson learned there--stay away from bubble stocks.
don't try to catch a falling knife
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MrBobcat
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by MrBobcat »

Reminds me of my first lesson. Invest in World.com they said... backbone of the internet. I see many similarities with that and the current AI/chip mania.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by mrmass »

Hmm Hindenburg. Are they equating the Hindenburg with SuperMicro? :mrgreen:
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by bongo »

mrmass wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 2:02 pm
Hmm Hindenburg. Are they equating the Hindenburg with SuperMicro? :mrgreen:
At least OP got out. I thought he had capitulated at the very top and then at the bottom (went on a 20% run after he posted), but it looks like that was a good move after all.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by bendix »

WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?
Worry not. You can lose as much by investing into a somewhat diversified ETF.
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Jeepergeo »

WhitePuma wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 1:31 pm
aristotelian wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 1:18 pm
WhitePuma wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 12:46 pm
aristotelian wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:31 am
WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?

For me, the appropriate type/amount of shame and next steps would depend a lot on the context.
Per advice given upthread, I’ve chosen to not feel any shame, but rather to focus on learning the lesson for the benefit of the future.
I don't see it as either/or. Again, depending on the context, some type of shame might be entirely appropriate and part of the learning process.
Well, I have already put myself through some shame. Including but not limited to announcing my error on a public forum that is all about indexing and not single stock short term trading.

What sort of shame did you have in mind?
Forum User Names sort of eliminate the element of true public shaming. :wink:

Clearly, this was a personal life lesson and it was a good "share" so others think before taking on the same risk. Clearly, you did not deserve any shame, self-inflicted or otherwise.

Live and learn.
Danock
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Danock »

mrmass wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 2:02 pm
Hmm Hindenburg. Are they equating the Hindenburg with SuperMicro? :mrgreen:
Hindenburg Research is a short selling firm that does research to deflate hot air balloon stocks such as Super Micro Computer.

There were warning signs all over Super Micro Computer such as a constant need for more capital and a very low profit margin for a technology company.
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mrmass
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by mrmass »

Danock wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 4:12 pm
mrmass wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 2:02 pm
Hmm Hindenburg. Are they equating the Hindenburg with SuperMicro? :mrgreen:
Hindenburg Research is a short selling firm that does research to deflate hot air balloon stocks such as Super Micro Computer.

There were warning signs all over Super Micro Computer such as a constant need for more capital and a very low profit margin for a technology company.
I was thinking about the airship/blimp.
afan
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by afan »

Clearly I don't pay enough attention to individual stocks to know. Some of those mentioned went out of business but Cisco is still in business and a leader in its field. Why is it listed among other failed companies?
We don't know how to beat the market on a risk-adjusted basis, and we don't know anyone that does know either | --Swedroe | We assume that markets are efficient, that prices are right | --Fama
20cm
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by 20cm »

afan wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 6:03 pm Clearly I don't pay enough attention to individual stocks to know. Some of those mentioned went out of business but Cisco is still in business and a leader in its field. Why is it listed among other failed companies?
It could be because their March 2000 investors are still waiting to break even, even just on a nominal basis and even inclusive of dividends. :D
Danock
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Danock »

mrmass wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 5:52 pm
Danock wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 4:12 pm
mrmass wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 2:02 pm
Hmm Hindenburg. Are they equating the Hindenburg with SuperMicro? :mrgreen:
Hindenburg Research is a short selling firm that does research to deflate hot air balloon stocks such as Super Micro Computer.

There were warning signs all over Super Micro Computer such as a constant need for more capital and a very low profit margin for a technology company.
I was thinking about the airship/blimp.
The firm is named after the dirigible Hindenburg.
From their website:

"We view the Hindenburg as the epitome of a totally man-made, totally avoidable disaster. "
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mrmass
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by mrmass »

Danock wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 2:31 pm
mrmass wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 5:52 pm
Danock wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 4:12 pm
mrmass wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 2:02 pm
Hmm Hindenburg. Are they equating the Hindenburg with SuperMicro? :mrgreen:
Hindenburg Research is a short selling firm that does research to deflate hot air balloon stocks such as Super Micro Computer.

There were warning signs all over Super Micro Computer such as a constant need for more capital and a very low profit margin for a technology company.
I was thinking about the airship/blimp.
The firm is named after the dirigible Hindenburg.
From their website:

"We view the Hindenburg as the epitome of a totally man-made, totally avoidable disaster. "
I didn't go to their site obviously. Interesting that they chose that association. :sharebeer
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mrmass
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by mrmass »

Looks like Super Micro is cooking the books. Brutal. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/30/super-m ... rlier.html
Nowizard
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Nowizard »

Take it as a lesson. Years ago, we had an opportunity to take stock in a newly created company or additional stock in the one where we already held stock. Took the stock, about 20K. It rocketed to 155-60K and started down, but we "knew" it would recover. Eventually sold for approximately 22K. Big ouch considering our total assets at the time. Now a distant memory. Lesson learned.
anoop
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by anoop »

Nowizard wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 1:47 pm Take it as a lesson. Years ago, we had an opportunity to take stock in a newly created company or additional stock in the one where we already held stock. Took the stock, about 20K. It rocketed to 155-60K and started down, but we "knew" it would recover. Eventually sold for approximately 22K. Big ouch considering our total assets at the time. Now a distant memory. Lesson learned.
How is that an ouch? You still came out on top, right?
Tamalak
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Tamalak »

This bad boy has had positive returns every single year since 2019.. including this one YTD 8-)
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mrmass
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by mrmass »

Tamalak wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 3:37 pm This bad boy has had positive returns every single year since 2019.. including this one YTD 8-)
The cook was good.

Like private companies. One set for the IRS one for a possible buyer and another for the owners
Nowizard
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by Nowizard »

Anop: It is an "ouch" to the tune of $100k+!
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BrooklynInvest
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by BrooklynInvest »

Sorry for your (financial) loss OP.

I've done similar things in my early days and I work in the industry. My path to bogleheaded simplicity wasn't a straight line. I'd bet it rarely is.

The shame would be not learning from these things. I haven't bought a single stock or anything that wasn't SPY-like in more than 20 years. The prior 5 or so was a very, very different story. Speculate/gamble on individual stocks as a hobby, with hobby-like budget? Else a 3-fund bogle portfolio or close proximity.

Good luck OP. We've all been there!
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Re: Bombed in Supermicro

Post by muffins14 »

WhitePuma wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2024 6:24 pm I dropped a lot into super micro at the peak in March and lost 60% since then. I’m really down about this. Lesson learned in a really painful way :( I won’t be dabbling in individual stocks any more. But now how do I deal with the shame and regret of such a large loss?
Don’t repeat the same mistake twice
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
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