The EV Life Cycle?

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flyingcows
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by flyingcows »

Unless there is some kind of energy storage break through, I'd assume any EV improvements would be incremental at best.

I don't see the primary EV use case changing anytime soon until we get some kind of breakthrough with energy storage. Right now EVs are great for people who have regular in town commutes with perhaps a secondary ICE car, and a mixed bag for everyone else
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just frank
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by just frank »

flyingcows wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:40 pm Unless there is some kind of energy storage break through, I'd assume any EV improvements would be incremental at best.

I don't see the primary EV use case changing anytime soon until we get some kind of breakthrough with energy storage. Right now EVs are great for people who have regular in town commutes with perhaps a secondary ICE car, and a mixed bag for everyone else
This might have described the first generation of EVs from more than 6 years ago. Modern EVs have ranges of up to 300 miles, and can add 200 miles at a fast charger in 20 minutes. And the specs continue to improve, and the price continues to fall, incrementally.

A series of incremental improvements, over time, is an exponential improvement.

Ask yourself if such an EV cost half that of your current ICE vehicle (new or used), to purchase and to operate, would you still care about waiting 20 minutes every 3 hours on the highway?
curmudgeon
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by curmudgeon »

nisiprius wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 6:48 pm
vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 3:56 pm ...I believe the average age of vehicles on the road has been trending up, not down. There was a time when cars wouldn't be expected to last 100k miles. Now that would be considered low...
True, but what's being discussed is the possibility that EVs will end that trend due to "bitrot" issues (cars become unrepairable and unable to receive security patches because nobody wants to support 12-year-old software).
The problem was clearly showing up with GPS systems and other infotainment even 20 years ago. This is a big reason for the Android Auto and Apple Carplay usage model; make the car hardware the display, not the computation center.

I do think of the lifecycle as encompassing more than just the manufacture and recycling endpoints, though, and I think that's been a bit missing in the discussion. The commonly perceived Boglehead may buy a car and run it till it dies, but the more typical ownership pattern in the US is a lot more nuanced.

Lots of cars change hands in 2-4 years. Either they were leased, company cars being cycled, or coming out of rental fleets. My view is that the buyers of these cars are trying to get a bit more car for the money, and compromise a bit on other factors to get this. Being a bit less affluent, they are also less likely to have garages or convenient means to install an EV charger. Some set of these buyers will take to EVs just fine, but I suspect there is, and will continue to be some extra friction for EVs at this stage - word of mouth about charging issues and difficulty in selling at the next stage will create hesitation (deserved or not). Right now these potential buyers are also concerned about range, but I think that will ease over time.

When you get to the ~10 year mark, there may start to be more of a divergence. Most 10-year old ICE cars still have all the function they had when new. They may not have the latest safety features, they may have some cosmetic flaws, they may not get quite the MPG of the latest version, but they are still very capable and usable to the next tier of buyers. For EVs, though, they will typically have significantly less range, and the buyers are much less likely to have home charging options.

At 15-20 years, the typical ICE car still has significant potential usable life, though a major engine or transmission failure may well lead to it being scrapped for economic reasons (not worth putting a new engine in a car when all the rest of the parts are 20 years old). For EVs at this stage, I would expect them to have one big failure mode (the battery), but fewer other secondary failures (starter, exhaust, CV joints, etc). Tesla with the display-centric operation model may become very problematic in this stage, though.
avalpert1
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by avalpert1 »

flyingcows wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:40 pm Unless there is some kind of energy storage break through, I'd assume any EV improvements would be incremental at best.

I don't see the primary EV use case changing anytime soon until we get some kind of breakthrough with energy storage. Right now EVs are great for people who have regular in town commutes with perhaps a secondary ICE car, and a mixed bag for everyone else
Aside from describing most car owners with who they are great for, your post is also just not grounded in reality. EV ranges are great for road trips and long commutes as well - and the limit for uses today isn't the energy storage but charging infrastructure - if you have a charger at home and at work, a multi-hundred mile daily commute isn't an issue, where there are chargers along the same cadence as rest stops (like is the case today for most of the Northeast US for example) road trips with the kids are exactly as they always were (for better or worse).
cmr79
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by cmr79 »

curmudgeon wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:52 pm
nisiprius wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 6:48 pm
vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 3:56 pm ...I believe the average age of vehicles on the road has been trending up, not down. There was a time when cars wouldn't be expected to last 100k miles. Now that would be considered low...
True, but what's being discussed is the possibility that EVs will end that trend due to "bitrot" issues (cars become unrepairable and unable to receive security patches because nobody wants to support 12-year-old software).
The problem was clearly showing up with GPS systems and other infotainment even 20 years ago. This is a big reason for the Android Auto and Apple Carplay usage model; make the car hardware the display, not the computation center.

I do think of the lifecycle as encompassing more than just the manufacture and recycling endpoints, though, and I think that's been a bit missing in the discussion. The commonly perceived Boglehead may buy a car and run it till it dies, but the more typical ownership pattern in the US is a lot more nuanced.

Lots of cars change hands in 2-4 years. Either they were leased, company cars being cycled, or coming out of rental fleets. My view is that the buyers of these cars are trying to get a bit more car for the money, and compromise a bit on other factors to get this. Being a bit less affluent, they are also less likely to have garages or convenient means to install an EV charger. Some set of these buyers will take to EVs just fine, but I suspect there is, and will continue to be some extra friction for EVs at this stage - word of mouth about charging issues and difficulty in selling at the next stage will create hesitation (deserved or not). Right now these potential buyers are also concerned about range, but I think that will ease over time.

When you get to the ~10 year mark, there may start to be more of a divergence. Most 10-year old ICE cars still have all the function they had when new. They may not have the latest safety features, they may have some cosmetic flaws, they may not get quite the MPG of the latest version, but they are still very capable and usable to the next tier of buyers. For EVs, though, they will typically have significantly less range, and the buyers are much less likely to have home charging options.

At 15-20 years, the typical ICE car still has significant potential usable life, though a major engine or transmission failure may well lead to it being scrapped for economic reasons (not worth putting a new engine in a car when all the rest of the parts are 20 years old). For EVs at this stage, I would expect them to have one big failure mode (the battery), but fewer other secondary failures (starter, exhaust, CV joints, etc). Tesla with the display-centric operation model may become very problematic in this stage, though.
The average age of cars when they are scrapped in the US is just over 20 years, so I'm not sure it's fair to say that the typical 20 year old vehicle has "significant potential usable life" remaining.

I would wager that the longevity of an EV's battery pack, much like the longevity of an internal combustion engine, will be related both to an element of luck along with how they are cared for. For the ICE, that means regular servicing. For the battery, that probably means managing the state of charge and thermals appropriately, the latter being something that the vehicle's software should do in the background. Since most lithium ion batteries should be able to achieve somewhere between 1000-2000 complete cycles, that suggests potential mileage (at the low end) of 250-300k for typical EVs sold today. That exceeds the average mileage at scrapping for ICE vehicles, which is a little over 150k.

Regarding the electronics, even with Apple Car Play/ Android Auto, I would still worry that a lot of vehicles won't have adequate processing power for updates to the infotainment systems way down the road. I have an 11 year old iPad 2, which struggles with even basic web browsing at this point. Even some recent EVs like the Ford Mach E, already show lag in their infotainment systems due to inadequate processing units. Older Tesla vehicles can't get some updates due to their processing abilities. Unless cars are designed to have upgradeable processing units, I'm not sure how we can future-proof them from becoming obsolete with newer software versions any more than we can prevent the same in computers, tablets and phones.
JoeNJ28
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by JoeNJ28 »

cmr79 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 9:09 pm
curmudgeon wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:52 pm
nisiprius wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 6:48 pm
vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 3:56 pm ...I believe the average age of vehicles on the road has been trending up, not down. There was a time when cars wouldn't be expected to last 100k miles. Now that would be considered low...
True, but what's being discussed is the possibility that EVs will end that trend due to "bitrot" issues (cars become unrepairable and unable to receive security patches because nobody wants to support 12-year-old software).
The problem was clearly showing up with GPS systems and other infotainment even 20 years ago. This is a big reason for the Android Auto and Apple Carplay usage model; make the car hardware the display, not the computation center.

I do think of the lifecycle as encompassing more than just the manufacture and recycling endpoints, though, and I think that's been a bit missing in the discussion. The commonly perceived Boglehead may buy a car and run it till it dies, but the more typical ownership pattern in the US is a lot more nuanced.

Lots of cars change hands in 2-4 years. Either they were leased, company cars being cycled, or coming out of rental fleets. My view is that the buyers of these cars are trying to get a bit more car for the money, and compromise a bit on other factors to get this. Being a bit less affluent, they are also less likely to have garages or convenient means to install an EV charger. Some set of these buyers will take to EVs just fine, but I suspect there is, and will continue to be some extra friction for EVs at this stage - word of mouth about charging issues and difficulty in selling at the next stage will create hesitation (deserved or not). Right now these potential buyers are also concerned about range, but I think that will ease over time.

When you get to the ~10 year mark, there may start to be more of a divergence. Most 10-year old ICE cars still have all the function they had when new. They may not have the latest safety features, they may have some cosmetic flaws, they may not get quite the MPG of the latest version, but they are still very capable and usable to the next tier of buyers. For EVs, though, they will typically have significantly less range, and the buyers are much less likely to have home charging options.

At 15-20 years, the typical ICE car still has significant potential usable life, though a major engine or transmission failure may well lead to it being scrapped for economic reasons (not worth putting a new engine in a car when all the rest of the parts are 20 years old). For EVs at this stage, I would expect them to have one big failure mode (the battery), but fewer other secondary failures (starter, exhaust, CV joints, etc). Tesla with the display-centric operation model may become very problematic in this stage, though.
The average age of cars when they are scrapped in the US is just over 20 years, so I'm not sure it's fair to say that the typical 20 year old vehicle has "significant potential usable life" remaining.

I would wager that the longevity of an EV's battery pack, much like the longevity of an internal combustion engine, will be related both to an element of luck along with how they are cared for. For the ICE, that means regular servicing. For the battery, that probably means managing the state of charge and thermals appropriately, the latter being something that the vehicle's software should do in the background. Since most lithium ion batteries should be able to achieve somewhere between 1000-2000 complete cycles, that suggests potential mileage (at the low end) of 250-300k for typical EVs sold today. That exceeds the average mileage at scrapping for ICE vehicles, which is a little over 150k.

Regarding the electronics, even with Apple Car Play/ Android Auto, I would still worry that a lot of vehicles won't have adequate processing power for updates to the infotainment systems way down the road. I have an 11 year old iPad 2, which struggles with even basic web browsing at this point. Even some recent EVs like the Ford Mach E, already show lag in their infotainment systems due to inadequate processing units. Older Tesla vehicles can't get some updates due to their processing abilities. Unless cars are designed to have upgradeable processing units, I'm not sure how we can future-proof them from becoming obsolete with newer software versions any more than we can prevent the same in computers, tablets and phones.
That’s the beauty of Apple car play and Android auto. The car does no processing the phones do it for them so if you upgrade your phone your finished.
cmr79
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by cmr79 »

JoeNJ28 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 9:14 pm
cmr79 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 9:09 pm
curmudgeon wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:52 pm
nisiprius wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 6:48 pm
vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 3:56 pm ...I believe the average age of vehicles on the road has been trending up, not down. There was a time when cars wouldn't be expected to last 100k miles. Now that would be considered low...
True, but what's being discussed is the possibility that EVs will end that trend due to "bitrot" issues (cars become unrepairable and unable to receive security patches because nobody wants to support 12-year-old software).
The problem was clearly showing up with GPS systems and other infotainment even 20 years ago. This is a big reason for the Android Auto and Apple Carplay usage model; make the car hardware the display, not the computation center.

I do think of the lifecycle as encompassing more than just the manufacture and recycling endpoints, though, and I think that's been a bit missing in the discussion. The commonly perceived Boglehead may buy a car and run it till it dies, but the more typical ownership pattern in the US is a lot more nuanced.

Lots of cars change hands in 2-4 years. Either they were leased, company cars being cycled, or coming out of rental fleets. My view is that the buyers of these cars are trying to get a bit more car for the money, and compromise a bit on other factors to get this. Being a bit less affluent, they are also less likely to have garages or convenient means to install an EV charger. Some set of these buyers will take to EVs just fine, but I suspect there is, and will continue to be some extra friction for EVs at this stage - word of mouth about charging issues and difficulty in selling at the next stage will create hesitation (deserved or not). Right now these potential buyers are also concerned about range, but I think that will ease over time.

When you get to the ~10 year mark, there may start to be more of a divergence. Most 10-year old ICE cars still have all the function they had when new. They may not have the latest safety features, they may have some cosmetic flaws, they may not get quite the MPG of the latest version, but they are still very capable and usable to the next tier of buyers. For EVs, though, they will typically have significantly less range, and the buyers are much less likely to have home charging options.

At 15-20 years, the typical ICE car still has significant potential usable life, though a major engine or transmission failure may well lead to it being scrapped for economic reasons (not worth putting a new engine in a car when all the rest of the parts are 20 years old). For EVs at this stage, I would expect them to have one big failure mode (the battery), but fewer other secondary failures (starter, exhaust, CV joints, etc). Tesla with the display-centric operation model may become very problematic in this stage, though.
The average age of cars when they are scrapped in the US is just over 20 years, so I'm not sure it's fair to say that the typical 20 year old vehicle has "significant potential usable life" remaining.

I would wager that the longevity of an EV's battery pack, much like the longevity of an internal combustion engine, will be related both to an element of luck along with how they are cared for. For the ICE, that means regular servicing. For the battery, that probably means managing the state of charge and thermals appropriately, the latter being something that the vehicle's software should do in the background. Since most lithium ion batteries should be able to achieve somewhere between 1000-2000 complete cycles, that suggests potential mileage (at the low end) of 250-300k for typical EVs sold today. That exceeds the average mileage at scrapping for ICE vehicles, which is a little over 150k.

Regarding the electronics, even with Apple Car Play/ Android Auto, I would still worry that a lot of vehicles won't have adequate processing power for updates to the infotainment systems way down the road. I have an 11 year old iPad 2, which struggles with even basic web browsing at this point. Even some recent EVs like the Ford Mach E, already show lag in their infotainment systems due to inadequate processing units. Older Tesla vehicles can't get some updates due to their processing abilities. Unless cars are designed to have upgradeable processing units, I'm not sure how we can future-proof them from becoming obsolete with newer software versions any more than we can prevent the same in computers, tablets and phones.
That’s the beauty of Apple car play and Android auto. The car does no processing the phones do it for them so if you upgrade your phone your finished.
That isn't quite true, because the infotainment system in the vehicle usually isn't just screen mirroring. If you look into aftermarket head units and compatibility with CarPlay/AA, this becomes a big issue and a determining factor for many people in buying one model over another. There really isn't any difference between an aftermarket unit and the car's native infotainment system in this regard...an outdated/underpowered infotainment system or aftermarket head unit will be laggy and won't be able to run all features of CarPlay/AA.
Badinvestor
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Badinvestor »

just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:34 pm Engineering analyses suggest that the projected cost of building EVs will fall exponentially from their current value (near cost parity with ICE) by roughly 10% per year for the next 7-10 years.
I would appreciate seeing references to these studies. However, Chinese technological dominance in the EV space and the present US policy of keeping out Chinese EVs may mean that Americans won't see the benefit of these improvements.
GT99
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by GT99 »

Juice3 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 12:07 pm
vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 11:40 am purchased a 2014 Tesla with 120k on the odometer. It has about 60% of its original stated range
This the part I do not understand and is directly related to the topic/thread.

This is a 10yo 15-18K car in need of a 20K repair. If I told you it was a ICE car, it would headed to the scrap yard.

Cars still have a huge vanity factor especially in U.S.
You and probably the owners and many others are jumping to the conclusion that the battery has lost 40% of it's capacity. The reality is that most drivers are not going to get the original stated range even on day 1. There are numerous range test articles out there about this. I've had my model 3 for over 4 years, and I got maybe 85% of stated range from the beginning, less on the highway, and I haven't noticed a decline in those 4 years. And there are many factors that impact range - most people are aware of temperature. But I just changed my tires, and I'm pretty sure the range I'm getting now is actually a little bit better than I was getting with the factory tires brand new. And driving with the tires inflated lower than recommended has a noticeable impact.

Not to mention, the 2014 Model S was way ahead of it's time. Despite already being out for 2 years, it wasn't until the 2017 Chevy Volt that another widely available vehicle could match it's range. And it did so with much less fun.
vfinx
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by vfinx »

GT99 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 9:55 pm
Juice3 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 12:07 pm
vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 11:40 am purchased a 2014 Tesla with 120k on the odometer. It has about 60% of its original stated range
This the part I do not understand and is directly related to the topic/thread.

This is a 10yo 15-18K car in need of a 20K repair. If I told you it was a ICE car, it would headed to the scrap yard.

Cars still have a huge vanity factor especially in U.S.
You and probably the owners and many others are jumping to the conclusion that the battery has lost 40% of it's capacity. The reality is that most drivers are not going to get the original stated range even on day 1. There are numerous range test articles out there about this. I've had my model 3 for over 4 years, and I got maybe 85% of stated range from the beginning, less on the highway, and I haven't noticed a decline in those 4 years. And there are many factors that impact range - most people are aware of temperature. But I just changed my tires, and I'm pretty sure the range I'm getting now is actually a little bit better than I was getting with the factory tires brand new. And driving with the tires inflated lower than recommended has a noticeable impact.

Not to mention, the 2014 Model S was way ahead of it's time. Despite already being out for 2 years, it wasn't until the 2017 Chevy Volt that another widely available vehicle could match it's range. And it did so with much less fun.
Correct. They are comparing apples and oranges, as they do not know what the guess-o-meter claimed for the previous owner. The true degradation is likely significantly less than 40%.

Additionally, regulations for durability will become stricter soon (at least in California) (source):
By model year 2030, the rules require the vehicle to maintain at least 80% of electric range for 10 years or 150,000 miles. (Phased in from 70% for 2026 through 2029 model year vehicles.) By model year 2031, individual vehicle battery packs are warranted to maintain 75% of their energy for eight years or 100,000 miles. (Phased in from 70% for 2026 through 2030 model years.)
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just frank
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by just frank »

Badinvestor wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 9:42 pm
just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:34 pm Engineering analyses suggest that the projected cost of building EVs will fall exponentially from their current value (near cost parity with ICE) by roughly 10% per year for the next 7-10 years.
I would appreciate seeing references to these studies. However, Chinese technological dominance in the EV space and the present US policy of keeping out Chinese EVs may mean that Americans won't see the benefit of these improvements.
You can Google Wright's Law, and maybe read the report at: https://www.ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2024

Their prediction is that sales growth will be 33% annually for the next 7 years, and that every doubling of EV battery production volume leads to a 28% reduction in price. If 33% annual growth rate requires 2.4 years to double sales volume, that 28% reduction every 2.4 years is a 11-12% annual reduction in battery price over the same span.

EV prices have been falling >10% per year for the last 10 years. That same learning curve effects work with US manufacturers as well as Chinese ones. This is a global phenomenon, I would expect the ratio of prices in China and the US to stay the same to first order.

Cheap EVs are here... and they are going to keep getting cheaper.

Do you remember when DVD players cost $500? How about when CD players cost $500?
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AerialWombat
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by AerialWombat »

Given my absolute disdain for the 2024 Subaru Outback I bought last year, and the constant desire to go electric, this is a topic I ponder frequently, research heavily, and even invest in via the tiny portion of my net worth I dedicate to angel investing.

The very short summation of my deep journey into this subject is that battery tech will improve linearly, material sourcing is getting greener, and reuse and recycling options for batteries are rapidly improving.

My new electric motorcycle will be a 10-fold improvement over my only two year old electric motorcycle. And I’m actively exploring disposal options for my Outback to obtain a used BEV.
This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
CMD1
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by CMD1 »

My 12yr old Nissan leaf still has lots of life left, and that's with not very good first generation batteries. I imagine it will do 16-20 years without a problem. Yes, it's limited as a local city car. I can only assume 2024 EVs will last 20+ years if built right.

All that said, first generation Tesla batteries do not seem to be as reliable.
hunoraut
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by hunoraut »

PoorPlumber wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2024 5:11 pm We kind of have an idea of the life cycle of ICE vehicles. And to my eye, many can operate as designed to the same efficiency (or inefficiency, I know...) 25 years later. Some go longer.
And they readily exchange hands pretty quickly when sold used to people that cannot afford something new or maybe for someone's first vehicle.
Finally, they end up in junkyards for parts and/or eventually crushed & recycled for raw material.

This cycle seems to traditionally carry high depreciation from original sales price to very low entry price many years later to the third owner with often the same performance (MPG) as new.
A 1999 model year vehicle will not have the same power or mileage as new. Suspension components like shocks and bushings will have worn, if they weren't already replaced. They can be driven, but they're far from optimal. The average age of a vehicle on the road is some ~12yrs.

This is a 1999 vehicle. You don't see them much, and if you do, they're beyond good usability.

Image

An electric vehicle of the same age will have all the same wear on the suspension and all the trims...except the powertrain/driveline. Their equivalent is far simpler and conducive to way more longevity: simple motors, single-gear transmission.

The big bugbear is the battery. Degradation of the battery affects power output and range. The battery characteristics (capacity, voltages, performance curves) are all coded into the computer. If 3rd party swap options ever open up (and you'd expect batteries to far much cheaper 5,10,15 years into the future) you'd require the computer programming to be as well. Otherwise you're bound to manufacturer's sourcing and servicing.

The rest of the car's electronics e.g. infotainment should not be a major concern. Analogies to smartphones aren't quite right because smartphones are connected devices serving as a gateway to web apps and require continued software updates, and their performance degradation (software throttling) are also impacted by degradation of their miniscule battery.

Cars dont strictly need to be fully connected to the mothership. You can operate a Tesla in an area without cellular connectivity. You can use the navigation in your 2005 BMW or unbox a 1995 computer and it'll work exactly as it did the day you bought them.
Valuethinker
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

slipknot wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 2:34 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 8:49 am
Juice3 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:25 am Also of interest is that the car market has been relatively flat since showing real growth in the 90s

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA

Here people assume 8% annual growth. That is not the case the linked chart.
Good point.

North America is a mature car market. Higher vehicle cost has been addressed by longer vehicle lives, and longer finance terms. It's pretty much saturated - growth in units will approximate population growth, probably.

It's what happens in Emerging Markets that will be of interest. And manufacturers that can meet that - you never see a North American car in an EM (Mexico might be an exception?) unless it's a real museum piece.
Valuethinker, your last sentence is a lie.
Just a point about meaning of English words, and etiquette.

1. "lie" means intentional untruth
2. "that is a lie" means that you are accusing me of intentionally stating an untruth.

So it's perfectly reasonable to say "that's not my experience" but to accuse me of lying is different and much more personal.

The former is a good way of arguing on the internet, or in person. The latter is simply trolling - even if inadvertently so.

To answer the point about EM - rather than the personal insult

Well it is my experience. My EM travels have been in Eastern Europe, the Middle East (Syria, Libya and Egypt; also Turkey), Africa (Botswana and Zambia). Ecuador (Quito and Galapagos). India. Western China (Xinjiang) + usual spots (Shanghai and Beijing).
EDIT: and Costa Rica. From memory, small Japanese cars predominate there, too. I don't even think the locals drive Jeeps, which would be logical given conditions outside the main cities

None of those places did I see significant amounts of modern-ish American cars.

I was told Syria would be full of wonderful 1950s American cars (a sibling travels in Cuba, where there is something similar). However actually what I saw is a lot of Toyota and Mitsubishi pickups and small vans, plus Mercedes & BMW (for the secret police - the Mukhabarat aka "militia"). A few old roadies (that was in the 1990s).

(Sidenote. A "technical" is a pickup adapted as a weapons carrier, by bolting a heavy calibre machine gun, rocket launcher, recoilless rifle, anti tank missile launcher etc on the back. Causes massive trouble for western forces deployed in these places. Started in Somalia (or even earlier, in the war between Chad and Libya in the 1980s). Lots of very dramatic videos on the web of these things. Now Iraq-Syria : the free Syria rebel forces, and now the Islamic State. Also Ukraine war). These small pickups seem to be almost exclusively Japanese made (Toyota in particular)).

So if you've been somewhere else you can say "I was in yy and xx". Or you could even produce statistics about driving of North American cars somewhere else (if such exist).

And you know why American cars don't work in these places. Gasoline is expensive everywhere else - except the Persian Gulf & Saudi. They are not reliable compared to Japanese, nor value for money like Korean. American vehicles tend to be huge, and roads and parking in these places is not usually generous (again the Emirates, Qatar, Saudi an exception).
Last edited by Valuethinker on Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ClevrChico
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by ClevrChico »

Right now, I'd expect the lifecycle/depreciation curve to be similar to a ICE car with complex software and electronics. (Like a Mercedes S-class.) After the warranty expires, there's niche specialist workshops and parts/tool manufacturers to keep them going. (https://mercedessource.com/)

I can't imagine a general independent mechanic or most body shops even touching something like an out of warranty Cybertruck.

Things will change as EV's become the norm. A lot of old school mechanics balked at electronic fuel injection back in the 80's. Now, good luck trying to find an expert with carbs.
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sycamore
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by sycamore »

Valuethinker wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 4:05 am ...
Just a point about meaning of English words, and etiquette.
Now is a good time to point out the literal meaning of another English word "never" -- i.e., not ever, not even once -- as compared to how you used it, i.e. not never.

This situation frequently leads to disagreements. In my experience :)

Maybe hyperbole is best minimized?
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PoorPlumber
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by PoorPlumber »

hunoraut wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 2:58 am
PoorPlumber wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2024 5:11 pm We kind of have an idea of the life cycle of ICE vehicles. And to my eye, many can operate as designed to the same efficiency (or inefficiency, I know...) 25 years later. Some go longer.
And they readily exchange hands pretty quickly when sold used to people that cannot afford something new or maybe for someone's first vehicle.
Finally, they end up in junkyards for parts and/or eventually crushed & recycled for raw material.

This cycle seems to traditionally carry high depreciation from original sales price to very low entry price many years later to the third owner with often the same performance (MPG) as new.
A 1999 model year vehicle will not have the same power or mileage as new. Suspension components like shocks and bushings will have worn, if they weren't already replaced. They can be driven, but they're far from optimal. The average age of a vehicle on the road is some ~12yrs.

This is a 1999 vehicle. You don't see them much, and if you do, they're beyond good usability.

Image

An electric vehicle of the same age will have all the same wear on the suspension and all the trims...except the powertrain/driveline. Their equivalent is far simpler and conducive to way more longevity: simple motors, single-gear transmission.

The big bugbear is the battery. Degradation of the battery affects power output and range. The battery characteristics (capacity, voltages, performance curves) are all coded into the computer. If 3rd party swap options ever open up (and you'd expect batteries to far much cheaper 5,10,15 years into the future) you'd require the computer programming to be as well. Otherwise you're bound to manufacturer's sourcing and servicing.

The rest of the car's electronics e.g. infotainment should not be a major concern. Analogies to smartphones aren't quite right because smartphones are connected devices serving as a gateway to web apps and require continued software updates, and their performance degradation (software throttling) are also impacted by degradation of their miniscule battery.

Cars dont strictly need to be fully connected to the mothership. You can operate a Tesla in an area without cellular connectivity. You can use the navigation in your 2005 BMW or unbox a 1995 computer and it'll work exactly as it did the day you bought them.
I'm going to respectfully disagree about older Toyota's not being seen much, and if you do, they're beyond usability.

I just did a basic quick search on Craigslist and found multiple older Camry's that appear to be very usable. And I didn't cherry pick these. A sampling:
2000 Camry- 200,000 miles $2,000.00 (This one advertised with no issues and reliable.)
1996 Camry- 287,000 miles $2,500.00 (Advertised as reliable with some cosmetic issues.)
2004 Camry- 306,000 miles $3,700.00 (No issues, well maintained, typical scratches, and interior wear.)

There were many more, but didn't want to bore people.

And many, or maybe most, will have more than adequate power as well as getting similar MPG as they did two decades earlier when new.

Which EV's are comparable? The risk percentage vs. possible return of use for anyone buying used?

I've listed used, and usable with likely no further investment, ICE vehicles with an average age of 20 years and average miles of 233,000+- on them.
They will likely be bought and used for several more years & likely (not perfectly of course) to not incur high expenses.

Which EV's compare? What's the value, both in dollars and use, of a 2014 Tesla with 233,000 miles?

Would you buy them? Would you buy them for a kids first vehicle over some of the used ICE available? Send them to college in a 2010 Camry that's well maintained with 250,000 miles or a 2012 Tesla with 250,000 miles?

I just can't envision a good or comparable lifecycle of an EV in it's current form.

I mean, we have one person in this thread that had to replace the battery in their 2012 at 11 years and 90,000 miles at a cost of $15,000.00.
I won't say this is common, but I will say that I don't understand not one person pointing this out as an issue because any, I mean ANY, comparable ICE vehicle manufactured in the last 20 years that had a few of these would be lambasted as complete garbage. Full stop.

For the electric side, as you state, the powertrain/driveline is far simpler and conducive to way more longevity. I personally have seen electric motors on VFD's run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, for decades. They are running while you are reading this.

Some interesting reading here....
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by hunoraut »

PoorPlumber wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:59 am
I'm going to respectfully disagree about older Toyota's not being seen much, and if you do, they're beyond usability.

I just did a basic quick search on Craigslist and found multiple older Camry's that appear to be very usable. And I didn't cherry pick these. A sampling:
2000 Camry- 200,000 miles $2,000.00 (This one advertised with no issues and reliable.)
1996 Camry- 287,000 miles $2,500.00 (Advertised as reliable with some cosmetic issues.)
2004 Camry- 306,000 miles $3,700.00 (No issues, well maintained, typical scratches, and interior wear.)

And many, or maybe most, will have more than adequate power as well as getting similar MPG as they did two decades earlier when new.
My point is not that a 25 year old car is functionally and completely unusable, but that it's so undesirable it doesn't enter in the conversation.

Consider that a 1999-era Camry is smaller than a Corolla of today, and no way comparable in safety due to both construction and technology. Even if the motor itself still spins, what are the 100s of other mechanical parts (pumps, filters, seals, valves, sensors, belts, hoses, etc). How are plastics and rubber and panels and clips and fabrics and headliner after 25 years. Those cars were still equipped with tape decks.

The experience of a 25 year old car as primary vehicle is not something I would wish for, regardless of whether it was EV or ICE. Niche cars exempted.

I wager most people don't care about resale at 25 years, and most people don't intend to operate it at 25 years. I get that some people don't have the economic choice, like my family when I was growing up. But for those of us that do, I wouldnt drive one, and I wouldnt put my kid in one.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by just frank »

PoorPlumber wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:59 am
I'm going to respectfully disagree about older Toyota's not being seen much, and if you do, they're beyond usability.

I just did a basic quick search on Craigslist and found multiple older Camry's that appear to be very usable. And I didn't cherry pick these. A sampling:
2000 Camry- 200,000 miles $2,000.00 (This one advertised with no issues and reliable.)
1996 Camry- 287,000 miles $2,500.00 (Advertised as reliable with some cosmetic issues.)
2004 Camry- 306,000 miles $3,700.00 (No issues, well maintained, typical scratches, and interior wear.)

There were many more, but didn't want to bore people.

And many, or maybe most, will have more than adequate power as well as getting similar MPG as they did two decades earlier when new.

Which EV's are comparable? The risk percentage vs. possible return of use for anyone buying used?

I've listed used, and usable with likely no further investment, ICE vehicles with an average age of 20 years and average miles of 233,000+- on them.
They will likely be bought and used for several more years & likely (not perfectly of course) to not incur high expenses.

Which EV's compare? What's the value, both in dollars and use, of a 2014 Tesla with 233,000 miles?

Would you buy them? Would you buy them for a kids first vehicle over some of the used ICE available? Send them to college in a 2010 Camry that's well maintained with 250,000 miles or a 2012 Tesla with 250,000 miles?

I just can't envision a good or comparable lifecycle of an EV in it's current form.

I mean, we have one person in this thread that had to replace the battery in their 2012 at 11 years and 90,000 miles at a cost of $15,000.00.
I won't say this is common, but I will say that I don't understand not one person pointing this out as an issue because any, I mean ANY, comparable ICE vehicle manufactured in the last 20 years that had a few of these would be lambasted as complete garbage. Full stop.

For the electric side, as you state, the powertrain/driveline is far simpler and conducive to way more longevity. I personally have seen electric motors on VFD's run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, for decades. They are running while you are reading this.

Some interesting reading here....
I am going to respectfully suggest that your logic suffers from survivor bias. You cite 'survivors' for old Toyotas... without mentioning that there may be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure. You then argue that EVs are not reliable by citing a single anecdote of a 2012 Tesla that needed an battery replacement... without mentioning that there may be many 2012 Teslas still in service!

Anecdotes are not data. And biased anecdotes are not useful.

Why don't you just say... I went out to look for 25+ year old EVs in service, and found none. QED, EVs don't last 25 years! :oops:
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by curmudgeon »

hunoraut wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:30 am
PoorPlumber wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:59 am
I'm going to respectfully disagree about older Toyota's not being seen much, and if you do, they're beyond usability.

I just did a basic quick search on Craigslist and found multiple older Camry's that appear to be very usable. And I didn't cherry pick these. A sampling:
2000 Camry- 200,000 miles $2,000.00 (This one advertised with no issues and reliable.)
1996 Camry- 287,000 miles $2,500.00 (Advertised as reliable with some cosmetic issues.)
2004 Camry- 306,000 miles $3,700.00 (No issues, well maintained, typical scratches, and interior wear.)

And many, or maybe most, will have more than adequate power as well as getting similar MPG as they did two decades earlier when new.
My point is not that a 25 year old car is functionally and completely unusable, but that it's so undesirable it doesn't enter in the conversation.

Consider that a 1999-era Camry is smaller than a Corolla of today, and no way comparable in safety due to both construction and technology. Even if the motor itself still spins, what are the 100s of other mechanical parts (pumps, filters, seals, valves, sensors, belts, hoses, etc). How are plastics and rubber and panels and clips and fabrics and headliner after 25 years. Those cars were still equipped with tape decks.

The experience of a 25 year old car as primary vehicle is not something I would wish for, regardless of whether it was EV or ICE. Niche cars exempted.

I wager most people don't care about resale at 25 years, and most people don't intend to operate it at 25 years. I get that some people don't have the economic choice, like my family when I was growing up. But for those of us that do, I wouldnt drive one, and I wouldnt put my kid in one.
My point is that this is still a meaningful stage in the lifecycle of ICE vehicles. Sure, plenty will have been in accidents and scrapped by then, but plenty are still giving useful service, and the fact that they still have value at that point impacts their value/depreciation at the earlier stages of the life cycle as well. Most new car buyers DO care about resale, even if it is not their top priority. They may not consciously calculate it, but word of mouth will get around about vehicles that don't fit the typical depreciation curve (hence the common recommendation to lease EVs instead of buy for the less committed/unsure).
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Badinvestor »

just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 10:46 pm
Badinvestor wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 9:42 pm
just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:34 pm Engineering analyses suggest that the projected cost of building EVs will fall exponentially from their current value (near cost parity with ICE) by roughly 10% per year for the next 7-10 years.
I would appreciate seeing references to these studies.
read the report at: https://www.ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2024
This does not look to me like an engineering analysis (I've never seen a mutual fund firm that was into engineering), and anyway requires the disclosure of personal information to look at it.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by just frank »

Badinvestor wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:15 am
just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 10:46 pm
Badinvestor wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 9:42 pm
just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:34 pm Engineering analyses suggest that the projected cost of building EVs will fall exponentially from their current value (near cost parity with ICE) by roughly 10% per year for the next 7-10 years.
I would appreciate seeing references to these studies.
read the report at: https://www.ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2024
This does not look to me like an engineering analysis (I've never seen a mutual fund firm that was into engineering), and anyway requires the disclosure of personal information to look at it.
Investment groups hire engineering firms to provide them research analyses.

I just put in a made up email and it gave me the pdf.

How do you feel about Tony Seba? https://tonyseba.com/

Do you not believe in Wright's Law? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects
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PoorPlumber
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by PoorPlumber »

just frank wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:56 am
PoorPlumber wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:59 am
I'm going to respectfully disagree about older Toyota's not being seen much, and if you do, they're beyond usability.

I just did a basic quick search on Craigslist and found multiple older Camry's that appear to be very usable. And I didn't cherry pick these. A sampling:
2000 Camry- 200,000 miles $2,000.00 (This one advertised with no issues and reliable.)
1996 Camry- 287,000 miles $2,500.00 (Advertised as reliable with some cosmetic issues.)
2004 Camry- 306,000 miles $3,700.00 (No issues, well maintained, typical scratches, and interior wear.)

There were many more, but didn't want to bore people.

And many, or maybe most, will have more than adequate power as well as getting similar MPG as they did two decades earlier when new.

Which EV's are comparable? The risk percentage vs. possible return of use for anyone buying used?

I've listed used, and usable with likely no further investment, ICE vehicles with an average age of 20 years and average miles of 233,000+- on them.
They will likely be bought and used for several more years & likely (not perfectly of course) to not incur high expenses.

Which EV's compare? What's the value, both in dollars and use, of a 2014 Tesla with 233,000 miles?

Would you buy them? Would you buy them for a kids first vehicle over some of the used ICE available? Send them to college in a 2010 Camry that's well maintained with 250,000 miles or a 2012 Tesla with 250,000 miles?

I just can't envision a good or comparable lifecycle of an EV in it's current form.

I mean, we have one person in this thread that had to replace the battery in their 2012 at 11 years and 90,000 miles at a cost of $15,000.00.
I won't say this is common, but I will say that I don't understand not one person pointing this out as an issue because any, I mean ANY, comparable ICE vehicle manufactured in the last 20 years that had a few of these would be lambasted as complete garbage. Full stop.

For the electric side, as you state, the powertrain/driveline is far simpler and conducive to way more longevity. I personally have seen electric motors on VFD's run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, for decades. They are running while you are reading this.

Some interesting reading here....
I am going to respectfully suggest that your logic suffers from survivor bias. You cite 'survivors' for old Toyotas... without mentioning that there may be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure. You then argue that EVs are not reliable by citing a single anecdote of a 2012 Tesla that needed an battery replacement... without mentioning that there may be many 2012 Teslas still in service!

Anecdotes are not data. And biased anecdotes are not useful.

Why don't you just say... I went out to look for 25+ year old EVs in service, and found none. QED, EVs don't last 25 years! :oops:
You do make sense viewed within that lens. Anecdotes aren't data and not as useful. (Yes I said "as")

You correctly observe, I do cite 'survivors' without mentioning that there "may" be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure.
There "may" be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure. And there "may" not. There could 1,000's, maybe millions of them, that are being driven today that are not listed but being driven right now. (Which they are....)
We're doing a little anecdote vs. anecdote here. But I think you know that.

I also don't argue that EV's are not reliable however as you interpret.

I did note the one person stating they had a catastrophic failure at 11 years & 90,000 miles for a cost of $15,000.00, also noted that I couldn't say it was common, but found it surprising that no-one found this alarming. Even it it's one instance. And I also stated that if ANY ICE manufacturer from the last 20 years had a few of these failures in similar fashion that they would be lambasted as producing garbage.

No, I don't have a double blind, peer reviewed study to say x amount of x demographic empirically proving people would interpret things this way. However, from observing people, reviews, recalls, it seems "reasonable".

And as you know, stating that perhaps I say I went out to look for 25+ year old Ev's in service, and found none doesn't prove EV's don't last 25 years nor does it prove they do.

So....where does that leave us that I stated that is reasonably factual?:

Just as I stated to the poster, factually there are multiple Toyota's available with 233,000+- that are 20 years or more old that would need to be inspected by a qualified mechanic, but reasonably seem usable for a few more years with likely not having high costs.

Average cost: $2,733.00+-

That's clearly true. So back to my question:

Which EV's are comparably available that you or anyone would be willing to purchase?
Or not you...those of lesser means?
Those on a tighter budget looking for something to get them back and forth to work or to school?

We know reasonably many used Toyota Camry's are available that:
Average 20 years old
Average 200,000 miles+-
With an average cost of $2,700.00+-

All of this factors into the life cycle of Camry's or any supposed comparable products.

I have stated that I don't see a comparable usable life cycle for EV's. But am open to be shown.

So where are the comparable EV's that people would be comfortable purchasing used for the same use benefit vs. potential costs?
Where are the Bolts, Tesla's, Mach E's, etc. that have 200,000 miles that people would use for another 3 to 5 years with comparable performance for $2,700.00?
Yes, ICE will perform comparably to when they were new in MPG.

But let's double the amount to make it easier for the secondary EV market.
Where are the Bolts, Tesla's, Mach E's, etc. that have 200,000 miles that people would use for another 3 to 5 years with comparable performance when new that average cost around $5,400.00?

Not good enough? Let's triple it.
Where are the EV's that have 200,000 miles and likely to perform close to when new for the next 3 to 5 years for $8,100.00?

It just appears that the tremendous cost and potential for battery replacement makes the life cycle fall off a cliff to unusable at a much shorter period vs. ICE currently.
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PoorPlumber
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by PoorPlumber »

just frank wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:22 am
Badinvestor wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:15 am
just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 10:46 pm
Badinvestor wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 9:42 pm
just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:34 pm Engineering analyses suggest that the projected cost of building EVs will fall exponentially from their current value (near cost parity with ICE) by roughly 10% per year for the next 7-10 years.
I would appreciate seeing references to these studies.
read the report at: https://www.ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2024
This does not look to me like an engineering analysis (I've never seen a mutual fund firm that was into engineering), and anyway requires the disclosure of personal information to look at it.
Investment groups hire engineering firms to provide them research analyses.

I just put in a made up email and it gave me the pdf.

How do you feel about Tony Seba? https://tonyseba.com/

Do you not believe in Wright's Law? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects
Is there a guarantee that Wright's Law always transfers directly and proportionally to consumer costs?
Wwwdotcom
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Wwwdotcom »

Badinvestor wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 9:42 pm
just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:34 pm Engineering analyses suggest that the projected cost of building EVs will fall exponentially from their current value (near cost parity with ICE) by roughly 10% per year for the next 7-10 years.
I would appreciate seeing references to these studies. However, Chinese technological dominance in the EV space and the present US policy of keeping out Chinese EVs may mean that Americans won't see the benefit of these improvements.
I don't think that's reasonable. An analogy to your statement would be a bold claim by some people that nuclear research conducted Germans did not benefit the nuclear research conducted by Americans. There are other national examples of unintended tech sharing like ship building, search engine development, rocket design etc.
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just frank
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by just frank »

PoorPlumber wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 10:02 am
just frank wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:22 am
Badinvestor wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:15 am
just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 10:46 pm
Badinvestor wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 9:42 pm
I would appreciate seeing references to these studies.
read the report at: https://www.ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2024
This does not look to me like an engineering analysis (I've never seen a mutual fund firm that was into engineering), and anyway requires the disclosure of personal information to look at it.
Investment groups hire engineering firms to provide them research analyses.

I just put in a made up email and it gave me the pdf.

How do you feel about Tony Seba? https://tonyseba.com/

Do you not believe in Wright's Law? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects
Is there a guarantee that Wright's Law always transfers directly and proportionally to consumer costs?
You are asking if markets are always efficient. Of course they are not perfectly so, but over long spans of time, they seem to usually get there due to competition.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by just frank »

PoorPlumber wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:58 am You do make sense viewed within that lens. Anecdotes aren't data and not as useful. (Yes I said "as")

You correctly observe, I do cite 'survivors' without mentioning that there "may" be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure.
There "may" be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure. And there "may" not. There could 1,000's, maybe millions of them, that are being driven today that are not listed but being driven right now. (Which they are....)
We're doing a little anecdote vs. anecdote here. But I think you know that.

I also don't argue that EV's are not reliable however as you interpret.

I did note the one person stating they had a catastrophic failure at 11 years & 90,000 miles for a cost of $15,000.00, also noted that I couldn't say it was common, but found it surprising that no-one found this alarming. Even it it's one instance. And I also stated that if ANY ICE manufacturer from the last 20 years had a few of these failures in similar fashion that they would be lambasted as producing garbage.

No, I don't have a double blind, peer reviewed study to say x amount of x demographic empirically proving people would interpret things this way. However, from observing people, reviews, recalls, it seems "reasonable".

And as you know, stating that perhaps I say I went out to look for 25+ year old Ev's in service, and found none doesn't prove EV's don't last 25 years nor does it prove they do.

So....where does that leave us that I stated that is reasonably factual?:

Just as I stated to the poster, factually there are multiple Toyota's available with 233,000+- that are 20 years or more old that would need to be inspected by a qualified mechanic, but reasonably seem usable for a few more years with likely not having high costs.

Average cost: $2,733.00+-

That's clearly true. So back to my question:

Which EV's are comparably available that you or anyone would be willing to purchase?
Or not you...those of lesser means?
Those on a tighter budget looking for something to get them back and forth to work or to school?

We know reasonably many used Toyota Camry's are available that:
Average 20 years old
Average 200,000 miles+-
With an average cost of $2,700.00+-

All of this factors into the life cycle of Camry's or any supposed comparable products.

I have stated that I don't see a comparable usable life cycle for EV's. But am open to be shown.

So where are the comparable EV's that people would be comfortable purchasing used for the same use benefit vs. potential costs?
Where are the Bolts, Tesla's, Mach E's, etc. that have 200,000 miles that people would use for another 3 to 5 years with comparable performance for $2,700.00?
Yes, ICE will perform comparably to when they were new in MPG.

But let's double the amount to make it easier for the secondary EV market.
Where are the Bolts, Tesla's, Mach E's, etc. that have 200,000 miles that people would use for another 3 to 5 years with comparable performance when new that average cost around $5,400.00?

Not good enough? Let's triple it.
Where are the EV's that have 200,000 miles and likely to perform close to when new for the next 3 to 5 years for $8,100.00?

It just appears that the tremendous cost and potential for battery replacement makes the life cycle fall off a cliff to unusable at a much shorter period vs. ICE currently.
You are trying to compare a mature technology and marketplace (ICE vehicles) to one that is rapidly growing in sales, improving in quality and decreasing in price (BEVs).

Any direct comparison seems kinda silly.

You mention the $3000 price of the 20th century Toyotas as if its a virtue. I would contend that the market has bid them down quite low due to (reasonable) concerns regarding their longevity and need for costly maintenance. All of the folks I know of lesser means, driving those old cars, live in fear that the car will break down and need a costly repair (or replacement). They are not happily motoring around thinking of all the money they saved (with peace of mind) by not buying a $5-8k used car.

Looking at used EVs is also hard bc there are very few of them. That 2012 Tesla... they only sold 15,000 units total that year.

Those 2012 Tesla were very primitive technologically, literally using banks of repurposed laptop batteries with hand-crafted coolant loops, built by a startup with limited funds for engineering.

Does anyone think that a modern EV, with batteries 4 technology generation newer, built at 100X the scale (and with 100X the engineering budget) will have a longevity comparable to the 2012 Tesla? I don't.

I guess I believe in the wisdom of markets. Global sales of the Tesla Model Y surpassed that of Toyota's most popular vehicle (the Camry I think) last year. So the market seems to think that that BEV has a good value/cost proposition when new, compared to a Toyota sedan.

Those tens of thousands of BEVs from the early years weren't big enough to create a new marketplace. They are traded by collectors and taken apart by tinkerers.

Conversely, the tens of millions of BEVs coming into service now WILL be big enough to create a marketplace, for parts, for technicians, for recyclers, and for used car sales.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

PoorPlumber wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:58 am You do make sense viewed within that lens. Anecdotes aren't data and not as useful. (Yes I said "as")

You correctly observe, I do cite 'survivors' without mentioning that there "may" be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure.
There "may" be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure. And there "may" not. There could 1,000's, maybe millions of them, that are being driven today that are not listed but being driven right now. (Which they are....)
We're doing a little anecdote vs. anecdote here. But I think you know that.

I also don't argue that EV's are not reliable however as you interpret.

I did note the one person stating they had a catastrophic failure at 11 years & 90,000 miles for a cost of $15,000.00, also noted that I couldn't say it was common, but found it surprising that no-one found this alarming. Even it it's one instance. And I also stated that if ANY ICE manufacturer from the last 20 years had a few of these failures in similar fashion that they would be lambasted as producing garbage.
I keep thinking of a sibling's BMW X5 that needed $10k of front end work - about 3 weeks before the 8 year extended warranty expired.

Really. A $30k car? I think you'd be lucky if you didn't hit a multi-thousand dollar drivetrain repair in its 20 years of life.
No, I don't have a double blind, peer reviewed study to say x amount of x demographic empirically proving people would interpret things this way. However, from observing people, reviews, recalls, it seems "reasonable".

And as you know, stating that perhaps I say I went out to look for 25+ year old Ev's in service, and found none doesn't prove EV's don't last 25 years nor does it prove they do.

So....where does that leave us that I stated that is reasonably factual?:

Just as I stated to the poster, factually there are multiple Toyota's available with 233,000+- that are 20 years or more old that would need to be inspected by a qualified mechanic, but reasonably seem usable for a few more years with likely not having high costs.
That is not comparing Apples with Oranges. There aren't any commercial EVs (AFAIK) that have been around 20 years. 10 years? A handful of early model Teslas. Early Nissan Leafs. That's about it.
Average cost: $2,733.00+-

That's clearly true. So back to my question:

Which EV's are comparably available that you or anyone would be willing to purchase?
Or not you...those of lesser means?
Those on a tighter budget looking for something to get them back and forth to work or to school?

We know reasonably many used Toyota Camry's are available that:
Average 20 years old
Average 200,000 miles+-
With an average cost of $2,700.00+-
Which are a fraction of the Toyota Camry's that have been built. Cars last 20 years, tops, so most of those have gone to whatever heaven dead cars go to. I would imagine it's around 5-10% of all the Toyota Camry model sold in 2004 -- on the basis that the average life of a car is around 13-13.5 years and Camrys tend to last fairly well.

Note also the Toyota Camry now is a very different beast to the 2004 Toyota Camry. Thus using the one to predict the lifetime reliability and residual value of the other is not a good thing to try to do.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by cmr79 »

Just as an experiment, I searched for all used Camrys nationwide in the US on cargurus.com from a few different years:
1994: 0
1995: 6
1996: 3
1997: 11
1998: 14
1999: 30
2004: 114
2009: 441
2014: 737
2019: 1331
2020: 1520
2021: 2676
2022: 2260
2023: 2996
2024: 2320

It isn't direct evidence about the likelihood of one of the most reliable ICE vehicles surviving beyond 20 years, but the trend among those vehicles that are available to purchase seems pretty clear.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by nisiprius »

With regard to Valuethinker's comments on disruptive technologies, Clay Christensen etc., I've been doing a slow double-take, and it occurs to me that a salient point about the Toyota Prius is that it was not and is not a disruptive technology at all. It's just a car, with broadly similar range, performance, interior space, and fuel requirements as a non-hybrid Corolla. You buy it, you just drive it, you take off for Yellowstone or wherever. It's just it happens to get 50 mpg. It is a "normal" car with greatly improved fuel efficiency.

It's no more "disruptive" than flat-screen TVs were to CRT-based TVs.

It is pure electrics, BEV's, that cannot fuel at existing gas stations, and have sub-200-mile ranges, that deserve the name "disruptive." You can only sell them to people whose driving needs are noticeably different from those of the average US car owner.

There are a lot of Tesla model 3's in my current neighborhood. I talked to a neighbor about it, to get an owner's perspective. The most interesting thing to me was that when I asked why he chose one, what he said--just relaying what he said--was that he bought it because the price, after EV rebate, actually made it the cheapest purchase option. He also commented that he does take long trips, but only a occasionally and almost always along major Interstates where there are chargers at every service plaza. Charging time only requires a minor mental adjustment. You don't make a stop just to charge, you accept the idea of combining charging with taking a break, buy food, use the restroom, etc. In other words, with the build-out of charging networks and improved batteries, EV's are less "disruptive" than they used to be (but that's the typical course of events for initially-disruptive technologies).
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by slipknot »

Valuethinker wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 10:30 am
PoorPlumber wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:58 am You do make sense viewed within that lens. Anecdotes aren't data and not as useful. (Yes I said "as")

You correctly observe, I do cite 'survivors' without mentioning that there "may" be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure.
There "may" be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure. And there "may" not. There could 1,000's, maybe millions of them, that are being driven today that are not listed but being driven right now. (Which they are....)
We're doing a little anecdote vs. anecdote here. But I think you know that.

I also don't argue that EV's are not reliable however as you interpret.

I did note the one person stating they had a catastrophic failure at 11 years & 90,000 miles for a cost of $15,000.00, also noted that I couldn't say it was common, but found it surprising that no-one found this alarming. Even it it's one instance. And I also stated that if ANY ICE manufacturer from the last 20 years had a few of these failures in similar fashion that they would be lambasted as producing garbage.
I keep thinking of a sibling's BMW X5 that needed $10k of front end work - about 3 weeks before the 8 year extended warranty expired.

Really. A $30k car? I think you'd be lucky if you didn't hit a multi-thousand dollar drivetrain repair in its 20 years of life.
No, I don't have a double blind, peer reviewed study to say x amount of x demographic empirically proving people would interpret things this way. However, from observing people, reviews, recalls, it seems "reasonable".

And as you know, stating that perhaps I say I went out to look for 25+ year old Ev's in service, and found none doesn't prove EV's don't last 25 years nor does it prove they do.

So....where does that leave us that I stated that is reasonably factual?:

Just as I stated to the poster, factually there are multiple Toyota's available with 233,000+- that are 20 years or more old that would need to be inspected by a qualified mechanic, but reasonably seem usable for a few more years with likely not having high costs.
That is not comparing Apples with Oranges. There aren't any commercial EVs (AFAIK) that have been around 20 years. 10 years? A handful of early model Teslas. Early Nissan Leafs. That's about it.
Average cost: $2,733.00+-

That's clearly true. So back to my question:

Which EV's are comparably available that you or anyone would be willing to purchase?
Or not you...those of lesser means?
Those on a tighter budget looking for something to get them back and forth to work or to school?

We know reasonably many used Toyota Camry's are available that:
Average 20 years old
Average 200,000 miles+-
With an average cost of $2,700.00+-
Which are a fraction of the Toyota Camry's that have been built. Cars last 20 years, tops, so most of those have gone to whatever heaven dead cars go to. I would imagine it's around 5-10% of all the Toyota Camry model sold in 2004 -- on the basis that the average life of a car is around 13-13.5 years and Camrys tend to last fairly well.

Note also the Toyota Camry now is a very different beast to the 2004 Toyota Camry. Thus using the one to predict the lifetime reliability and residual value of the other is not a good thing to try to do.
Cars last 20 years, tops?

There you go again. :D
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by windaar »

Valuethinker wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 10:30 amCars last 20 years, tops
Up until not too long ago I had a late 60s VW that ran just fine. I have a friend with a '55 Chevy in his garage that he takes out on week-ends. I have more than a few acquaintances who drive late 90s cars. The mail truck that delivered your mail today is 30+ years old, the last ones were built in 1994. The govt is about to replace the mail trucks with EV mail trucks. Do you suppose they will still be running in 2054?
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by cmr79 »

I think it is pretty reasonable to expect a car used as a daily driver to last "20 years, tops". For average use, that would mean 250k or more miles and significantly outdated safety and tech features. I've never owned a vehicle older than 15 years personally and don't intend to if I can help it.

For those who own classic/antique or exotic vehicles that are only driven limited miles during good weather, that is a completely different story. Purpose-built commercial vehicles are also a different beast, and longevity/mileage for delivery trucks and tractor trailers doesn't generalize well to light duty passenger vehicles.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

slipknot wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 1:43 pm
Cars last 20 years, tops?

I wonder whether what we have is a language problem - you don't understand how British people speak?

As to your point.

Think about what the distribution curve looks like, if the average car age at scrappage is 13.5 years. You won't get more than 5-10% of vehicles lasting longer than 20 years (I am assuming a left hand skew, which doesn't seem unreasonable).

https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/ ... hicle-age/
The average age of a car at scrappage in 2015 reached 13.9 years, which is on a par with the 2014 performance. The lowest scrappage age, 13 years, was recorded in 2009, a result of government’s scrappage scheme.

Furthermore, the average age of a vehicle on the road has increased, from 6.8 years in 2003 to 7.8 recorded in 2015.
Generally cars in the UK would do about 1/3rd fewer miles pa than in the USA, and the climate is milder than most of the USA (no road salt, limited freezing-unfreezing-refreezing cycles).

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautifu ... ?rdt=60333

Take at look at 200k miles, which would be about 10k miles pa for a 20 year old vehicle? Or somewhat below the USA average? Not many cars.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7829067/

take a look at Figure 2, the cumulative distribution for GBR (Great Britain - we were still part of the EU at that point). You'll see not very many cars last past 20 years - curve is almost flat at that point.

I am not sure how scientific this study is, but it claims Toyota Camrys have a 20% chance of lasting 250k miles - which would be about 18 years at 15k miles pa. So a higher chance than I was estimating.

https://www.iseecars.com/longest-lasting-cars-study
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

windaar wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 2:50 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 10:30 amCars last 20 years, tops
Up until not too long ago I had a late 60s VW that ran just fine. I have a friend with a '55 Chevy in his garage that he takes out on week-ends. I have more than a few acquaintances who drive late 90s cars. The mail truck that delivered your mail today is 30+ years old, the last ones were built in 1994. The govt is about to replace the mail trucks with EV mail trucks. Do you suppose they will still be running in 2054?
See my post above. Not many vehicles would run that long.

I don't happen to know anyone driving a car from the late 1990s.

But if the life of a car is now 250k miles (that seems to be a standard figure) and cars are driven 15k miles pa (another standard US mileage) then that's about 19 years life? Remembering of course that's assuming no accident which totals the vehicle (I am presuming those are not counted in the 250k miles life estimate).
'55 Chevy in his garage that he takes out on week-ends
I saw the same in Damascus, and a sibling in Havana. However that isn't meaningful for a discussion of how long cars might last (a car driven 52 times a year v a car driven twice a day virtually 365 days a year).
The mail truck that delivered your mail today is 30+ years old, the last ones were built in 1994. The govt is about to replace the mail trucks with EV mail trucks. Do you suppose they will still be running in 2054?
Public transport vehicles are a different thing. City buses run 30 years. Aircraft run longer than that. They have regular maintenance and checks, and various life extension programmes - including new engines etc. You can't really compare them to privately owned passenger vehicles.
The govt is about to replace the mail trucks with EV mail trucks. Do you suppose they will still be running in 2054?
If the question is "If these vehicles receive regular maintenance, and replacement of key systems like motors and batteries on a regular basis, as required, will they last to 2054?" Then the answer is yes.

My father, who drove a car less than 5k miles pa (latterly) - albeit in an unhelpful environment (ice and road salt, freezing & unfreezing & refreezing) with an unheated garage -- He replaced his car every 12-13 years.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

cmr79 wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 3:12 pm I think it is pretty reasonable to expect a car used as a daily driver to last "20 years, tops". For average use, that would mean 250k or more miles and significantly outdated safety and tech features. I've never owned a vehicle older than 15 years personally and don't intend to if I can help it.
You'd probably need to spend some serious money on it at various points, too. Basically any part that moves. Some significant body work (I realise corrosion isn't the problem it was, but *still*).
For those who own classic/antique or exotic vehicles that are only driven limited miles during good weather, that is a completely different story. Purpose-built commercial vehicles are also a different beast, and longevity/mileage for delivery trucks and tractor trailers doesn't generalize well to light duty passenger vehicles.
A sibling owns a vehicle built in 1937 - nice motor, too. (Sorry that's Brit-speak ie "nice car").
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by cmr79 »

Valuethinker wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 3:44 pm
cmr79 wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 3:12 pm I think it is pretty reasonable to expect a car used as a daily driver to last "20 years, tops". For average use, that would mean 250k or more miles and significantly outdated safety and tech features. I've never owned a vehicle older than 15 years personally and don't intend to if I can help it.
You'd probably need to spend some serious money on it at various points, too. Basically any part that moves. Some significant body work (I realise corrosion isn't the problem it was, but *still*).
For those who own classic/antique or exotic vehicles that are only driven limited miles during good weather, that is a completely different story. Purpose-built commercial vehicles are also a different beast, and longevity/mileage for delivery trucks and tractor trailers doesn't generalize well to light duty passenger vehicles.
A sibling owns a vehicle built in 1937 - nice motor, too. (Sorry that's Brit-speak ie "nice car").
Some of the discrepancy in the discussion likely is British vs American speech idiosyncracies, as you mentioned...when I said it was "reasonable to expect a car used as a daily driver to last 20 years, tops," what I was implying that it might be reasonable to expect that 20 years is the longest you could expect that vehicle to be useable. I was defending your point with the way it might be more commonly expressed on this side of the pond :sharebeer

Some of the other discrepancies are probably that the UK and US auto markets are different. Pickup trucks tend to be kept running for more years than sedans and SUVs...median expected survival for a new pickup truck purchased in 2019 (most recent academic-quality data I could find from here: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... Pj2-43xjmn) was 25 years vs about 18 years for SUVs and sedans.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by MCST »

Valuethinker wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 3:41 pm
windaar wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 2:50 pm
The mail truck that delivered your mail today is 30+ years old, the last ones were built in 1994. The govt is about to replace the mail trucks with EV mail trucks. Do you suppose they will still be running in 2054?
Public transport vehicles are a different thing. City buses run 30 years. Aircraft run longer than that. They have regular maintenance and checks, and various life extension programmes - including new engines etc. You can't really compare them to privately owned passenger vehicles.
And those 30 year old mail trucks are basically a tin can with a tiny engine. They have almost 0 electrical parts, and a very simple and very underpowered engine. They are also incredibly unsafe. I also rarely see them anymore since they're being replaced with Chevy minivans and Dodge work vans. I can almost guarantee those Chevys and Dodges won't be around in 30 years.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

jdb wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:50 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 4:36 pm
Especially with Tesla price reductions and the ability to get both federal and state money when buying a new EV, it makes a battery replacement senseless out of warranty. My own thought would be to do a "Rich Rebuilds" swap, putting an LS engine in at end of life, although I know that's a lot of work and fabrication required.
With all due respect the term “senseless” may be an overstatement. We replaced the battery in our 2012 Tesla Model S last year, after 11 years and over 90,000 miles. Cost was $15K all in, and got a 4 year 50,000 mile warranty on new battery. The car drives like new, it was like getting new vehicle for $15K. We plan to replace the battery in our 8 year old Telsa Model X now with 60K miles in next few years when needed. Both vehicles look great and are low maintenance. Good luck.
I'm not finding 2012's but going to 2013, I'm finding pages of them for sale from $9k to $12k. Perhaps their batteries are near end of life. I don't know. It does sound like you got a good deal. Both Hoovies Garage and Rich Rebuilds did videos on replacement model S batteries a couple years ago and they quoted $22,500 from Tesla. I assume you used another source of battery packs.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by BHFTW »

PoorPlumber wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:58 am
just frank wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:56 am
PoorPlumber wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:59 am
I'm going to respectfully disagree about older Toyota's not being seen much, and if you do, they're beyond usability.

I just did a basic quick search on Craigslist and found multiple older Camry's that appear to be very usable. And I didn't cherry pick these. A sampling:
2000 Camry- 200,000 miles $2,000.00 (This one advertised with no issues and reliable.)
1996 Camry- 287,000 miles $2,500.00 (Advertised as reliable with some cosmetic issues.)
2004 Camry- 306,000 miles $3,700.00 (No issues, well maintained, typical scratches, and interior wear.)

There were many more, but didn't want to bore people.

And many, or maybe most, will have more than adequate power as well as getting similar MPG as they did two decades earlier when new.

Which EV's are comparable? The risk percentage vs. possible return of use for anyone buying used?

I've listed used, and usable with likely no further investment, ICE vehicles with an average age of 20 years and average miles of 233,000+- on them.
They will likely be bought and used for several more years & likely (not perfectly of course) to not incur high expenses.

Which EV's compare? What's the value, both in dollars and use, of a 2014 Tesla with 233,000 miles?

Would you buy them? Would you buy them for a kids first vehicle over some of the used ICE available? Send them to college in a 2010 Camry that's well maintained with 250,000 miles or a 2012 Tesla with 250,000 miles?

I just can't envision a good or comparable lifecycle of an EV in it's current form.

I mean, we have one person in this thread that had to replace the battery in their 2012 at 11 years and 90,000 miles at a cost of $15,000.00.
I won't say this is common, but I will say that I don't understand not one person pointing this out as an issue because any, I mean ANY, comparable ICE vehicle manufactured in the last 20 years that had a few of these would be lambasted as complete garbage. Full stop.

For the electric side, as you state, the powertrain/driveline is far simpler and conducive to way more longevity. I personally have seen electric motors on VFD's run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, for decades. They are running while you are reading this.

Some interesting reading here....
I am going to respectfully suggest that your logic suffers from survivor bias. You cite 'survivors' for old Toyotas... without mentioning that there may be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure. You then argue that EVs are not reliable by citing a single anecdote of a 2012 Tesla that needed an battery replacement... without mentioning that there may be many 2012 Teslas still in service!

Anecdotes are not data. And biased anecdotes are not useful.

Why don't you just say... I went out to look for 25+ year old EVs in service, and found none. QED, EVs don't last 25 years! :oops:
You do make sense viewed within that lens. Anecdotes aren't data and not as useful. (Yes I said "as")

You correctly observe, I do cite 'survivors' without mentioning that there "may" be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure.
There "may" be many such vehicles that are no longer in service due to mechanical failure. And there "may" not. There could 1,000's, maybe millions of them, that are being driven today that are not listed but being driven right now. (Which they are....)
We're doing a little anecdote vs. anecdote here. But I think you know that.

I also don't argue that EV's are not reliable however as you interpret.

I did note the one person stating they had a catastrophic failure at 11 years & 90,000 miles for a cost of $15,000.00, also noted that I couldn't say it was common, but found it surprising that no-one found this alarming. Even it it's one instance. And I also stated that if ANY ICE manufacturer from the last 20 years had a few of these failures in similar fashion that they would be lambasted as producing garbage.

No, I don't have a double blind, peer reviewed study to say x amount of x demographic empirically proving people would interpret things this way. However, from observing people, reviews, recalls, it seems "reasonable".

And as you know, stating that perhaps I say I went out to look for 25+ year old Ev's in service, and found none doesn't prove EV's don't last 25 years nor does it prove they do.

So....where does that leave us that I stated that is reasonably factual?:

Just as I stated to the poster, factually there are multiple Toyota's available with 233,000+- that are 20 years or more old that would need to be inspected by a qualified mechanic, but reasonably seem usable for a few more years with likely not having high costs.

Average cost: $2,733.00+-

That's clearly true. So back to my question:

Which EV's are comparably available that you or anyone would be willing to purchase?
Or not you...those of lesser means?
Those on a tighter budget looking for something to get them back and forth to work or to school?

We know reasonably many used Toyota Camry's are available that:
Average 20 years old
Average 200,000 miles+-
With an average cost of $2,700.00+-

All of this factors into the life cycle of Camry's or any supposed comparable products.

I have stated that I don't see a comparable usable life cycle for EV's. But am open to be shown.

So where are the comparable EV's that people would be comfortable purchasing used for the same use benefit vs. potential costs?
Where are the Bolts, Tesla's, Mach E's, etc. that have 200,000 miles that people would use for another 3 to 5 years with comparable performance for $2,700.00?
Yes, ICE will perform comparably to when they were new in MPG.

But let's double the amount to make it easier for the secondary EV market.
Where are the Bolts, Tesla's, Mach E's, etc. that have 200,000 miles that people would use for another 3 to 5 years with comparable performance when new that average cost around $5,400.00?

Not good enough? Let's triple it.
Where are the EV's that have 200,000 miles and likely to perform close to when new for the next 3 to 5 years for $8,100.00?

It just appears that the tremendous cost and potential for battery replacement makes the life cycle fall off a cliff to unusable at a much shorter period vs. ICE currently.
Let me ask a question, what's the average/expected cost of maintenance and repairs on a Camry for it to last 20 years and 233,000 miles? I bet it's far more than the residual value of $2,733.00 as you calculated.

I tend to look at a car's useful life (to me) as the number of years it takes from new to a point when its cumulative cost on maintenance and repairs equals its resale value. Then I can easily think of the actual annual cost (purchase price / number of years). I think for a Tesla this might be 10~15 years while for a Camry it might be 15~20 years? What do people think?
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Wwwdotcom »

BHFTW wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 10:11 pm
I tend to look at a car's useful life (to me) as the number of years it takes from new to a point when its cumulative cost on maintenance and repairs equals its resale value. Then I can easily think of the actual annual cost (purchase price / number of years). I think for a Tesla this might be 10~15 years while for a Camry it might be 15~20 years? What do people think?
I would flip the two. 15 years from now it will be 2039. The cost of gasoline after tax and bans on gas cars in large urban areas will make it very expensive to drive a Camry. In fact, any form of energy sold at a station (EV or GAS) is going to be extremely expensive. The type of people that currently drive 15 year old camrys may just switch to a 15 year old tesla with a battery that has 40-60% capacity and be very happy because they would be able to charge at home.

A caveat might be that, with so many gas cars in the junk yard, parts might be easy to find. A DIY mechanic is probably going to be able to "maintain" and "repair" a Camry very cheaply.. But will they be able to cheapy drive 10k miles a year? probably not.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by PoorPlumber »

Valuethinker wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 8:45 am
nisiprius wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:09 am I doubt that it's life-critical for Toyota to sell pure EVs right now. There is a fair amount of common technology between EVs and hybrids, and they do sell a plug-in hybrid with a 40-mile range. I understand that no new model is easy, and that they can't just take the ICE out of the Prius Prime and put in a bigger battery.

Chevy introduced the plug-in hybrid Volt in 2011. It was a reasonably popular car--a neighbor of mine has one and likes it. And they introduced the pure-EV Bolt in 2016. So, five-year time lag. As to what in the world was really going on, or why GM killed off two popular, successful, well-liked cars, who knows?
The problem all the traditional car OEMs have - they don't know how to make an EV that is also profitable.

This reminds me so very much of the minicomputer industry.
Toyota was, after all, pretty far out of the mainstream and going against consensus thinking when they introduced the Prius in 1997, so I'm not ready to assume they are total idiots. (GM, on the other hand...)
Unfortunately I think the hybrid has blinded them to the EV. They can get into the game, but their DNA mitigates against it. This is so very much as Clay Christensen describes Disruptive Innovation. The incumbents are so good at meeting their existing customer need that they can't see that the world is changing around them. It's not that the incumbents are not good, it's that they are too good.
I don't think the traditional car OEMs don't know how to make an EV that is also profitable. I think there are other factors that hinder them.

Some may not know or think about this: Tesla is not playing by the same rules as ALL traditional car OEMs in the US. Partially smart and partially lucky I guess.

What do I mean?
Tesla has never, to my knowledge ever had to go into negotiations with the UAW and be forced to hit those numbers.
Also, Tesla never established a traditional dealer network with independent dealership owners involving state laws and some of the most powerful state lobbyists around.
It's why you can look on your phone, order your Tesla, and it be delivered to a service center with a basic pickup. (I think it's still this way. I haven't bought one.?")

You CANNOT do this with any other traditional OEM.
Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota, Mercedes, etc. followed the established model last I checked. You HAVE to get a dealer involved with whatever markup, receiving fees, prep that the dealer designates. All this increases costs against "competition" that doesn't have to play the same game.

It's not so much the traditional OEMs don't know how to make an EV that is also profitable.

It's that they aren't allowed and can't play the same game because of their historical 75 year plus agreements. And last I've read they don't know what to do about it.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by PoorPlumber »

just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:34 pm Going back to the OP, and skimming the replies... I think there is an important point missing.

Engineering analyses suggest that the projected cost of building EVs will fall exponentially from their current value (near cost parity with ICE) by roughly 10% per year for the next 7-10 years. By the rule of 72, this predicts that the real cost of an EV in the 2030s will be half that of an equivalent size ICE vehicle.

These analyses take into account that EVs are much simpler machines than ICE vehicles, with fewer moving parts and sliding surfaces, and projections that the cost of batteries will eventually asymptote to a small multiple of the cost the minerals within them, as has happened with other tech in the past.

The result is that an EV would likely be a steal compared to an ICE vehicle after 2030, even if it only lasted half as long. And it seems likely that they will last just as long if not longer (by virtue of being simpler machines). Lower maintenance, and lower cost of energy will make TCO less than half that of ICE, handily.

As for battery longevity, that is not much of a concern today, and it will likely improve with time. And if it doesn't, an EV battery nowadays only costs a bit more than an ICE engine, and in the future will likely cost less... so swapping out a battery will be a rare thing like replacing an engine in an ICE vehicle, and have a similar cost/benefit analysis.

The thing that I can't see is how the existing 'lifecycle of ICE vehicles' will not be entirely disrupted/replaced by far cheaper and better EVs, likely around 2028-2030.
An EV battery, from the numbers I've seen, does not cost only a "bit more than an ICE engine". That's misleading. Anyone want to call and ask for battery replacement costs of a Tesla Model 3 versus say...a replacement engine for a Honda Accord?

Also, engineering analyses suggesting EV building costs will fall exponentially 10% a year for the next 7 to 10 years does not provide reasonable prediction that the cost of an EV in the 2030's will be half of an equivalent ICE vehicle.

Just way to many factors to find that reasonable. Businesses are in business to make money. Lower production costs mean more profits, not necessarily lower prices. Competition brings lower prices.

And we haven't even got the government heavily involved in EV's yet. Don't think that's coming? You think the EPA will just eliminate or decrease their personnel? No. They will be coming out with a myriad of laws, rules, taxes, and fees we probably can't even imagine yet.
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PoorPlumber
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Joined: Mon May 13, 2024 5:22 pm

Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by PoorPlumber »

Curious to what others think as well about Tesla as a company so heavily funded by all US taxpayers?

They're currently on track to receive, in a pass through manner, 10 billion dollars in incentives this year.

I know, I know....someone is going to say, "It's not given to Tesla, it's a tax credit to the buyer....."

Look into costs of end product with and without government funding.
CloseEnough
Posts: 1431
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:34 am

Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by CloseEnough »

PoorPlumber wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 8:06 pm Curious to what others think as well about Tesla as a company so heavily funded by all US taxpayers?

They're currently on track to receive, in a pass through manner, 10 billion dollars in incentives this year.

I know, I know....someone is going to say, "It's not given to Tesla, it's a tax credit to the buyer....."

Look into costs of end product with and without government funding.
Suggest you google "government support of large oil companies".

It won't change your bias, pretty clear nothing will. But you might learn something.
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just frank
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Location: Philly Metro

Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by just frank »

PoorPlumber wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 7:57 pm
just frank wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:34 pm As for battery longevity, that is not much of a concern today, and it will likely improve with time. And if it doesn't, an EV battery nowadays only costs a bit more than an ICE engine, and in the future will likely cost less... so swapping out a battery will be a rare thing like replacing an engine in an ICE vehicle, and have a similar cost/benefit analysis.
An EV battery, from the numbers I've seen, does not cost only a "bit more than an ICE engine". That's misleading. Anyone want to call and ask for battery replacement costs of a Tesla Model 3 versus say...a replacement engine for a Honda Accord?
EV battery prices are down to about $100/kWh in 2024 (OEM cost, not retail price). For a 75 kWh pack, that is $7500.

I see replacing an ICE engine is costing in the $4-8k range.

That is what I mean by 'slightly more'. Not apples to apples, bc that is retail installed versus OEM cost...

The problem with asking for the retail price for a Model 3 pack is that they are not for sale... all 3's are still under warranty, and Tesla doesn't have to tell you what it costs to replace a pack. And when they are out of warranty, they can refuse to sell you a pack for cost, or at all. That's capitalism.

But in an EV future where EVs are as common as ICE vehicles, there will be replacement packs at competitive prices. And if Wright's Law is correct, those packs will cost less than an ICE engine does now.
WhyNotUs
Posts: 2687
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2013 11:38 am

Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by WhyNotUs »

Just change batteries, here is what they do in Shanghai for $7 in less than 2 mins.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEkPJNRXvkM
I own the next hot stock- VTSAX
mrb09
Posts: 936
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 9:02 am

Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by mrb09 »

PoorPlumber wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 7:38 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 8:45 am
nisiprius wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:09 am I doubt that it's life-critical for Toyota to sell pure EVs right now. There is a fair amount of common technology between EVs and hybrids, and they do sell a plug-in hybrid with a 40-mile range. I understand that no new model is easy, and that they can't just take the ICE out of the Prius Prime and put in a bigger battery.

Chevy introduced the plug-in hybrid Volt in 2011. It was a reasonably popular car--a neighbor of mine has one and likes it. And they introduced the pure-EV Bolt in 2016. So, five-year time lag. As to what in the world was really going on, or why GM killed off two popular, successful, well-liked cars, who knows?
The problem all the traditional car OEMs have - they don't know how to make an EV that is also profitable.

This reminds me so very much of the minicomputer industry.
Toyota was, after all, pretty far out of the mainstream and going against consensus thinking when they introduced the Prius in 1997, so I'm not ready to assume they are total idiots. (GM, on the other hand...)
Unfortunately I think the hybrid has blinded them to the EV. They can get into the game, but their DNA mitigates against it. This is so very much as Clay Christensen describes Disruptive Innovation. The incumbents are so good at meeting their existing customer need that they can't see that the world is changing around them. It's not that the incumbents are not good, it's that they are too good.
I don't think the traditional car OEMs don't know how to make an EV that is also profitable. I think there are other factors that hinder them.

Some may not know or think about this: Tesla is not playing by the same rules as ALL traditional car OEMs in the US. Partially smart and partially lucky I guess.

What do I mean?
Tesla has never, to my knowledge ever had to go into negotiations with the UAW and be forced to hit those numbers.
Also, Tesla never established a traditional dealer network with independent dealership owners involving state laws and some of the most powerful state lobbyists around.
It's why you can look on your phone, order your Tesla, and it be delivered to a service center with a basic pickup. (I think it's still this way. I haven't bought one.?")

You CANNOT do this with any other traditional OEM.
Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota, Mercedes, etc. followed the established model last I checked. You HAVE to get a dealer involved with whatever markup, receiving fees, prep that the dealer designates. All this increases costs against "competition" that doesn't have to play the same game.

It's not so much the traditional OEMs don't know how to make an EV that is also profitable.

It's that they aren't allowed and can't play the same game because of their historical 75 year plus agreements. And last I've read they don't know what to do about it.
Interesting article about Costco as as direct to consumer for GM EVs: https://insideevs.com/news/722777/buy-gm-ev-costco/

I just bought a new bicycle from a large bike company that had moved to direct to consumer sales during the pandemic. I ordered off a web site, they shipped the bike to a local dealer who prepped the bike and will do the annual service for me, which is all revenue for the shop.

I agree there are challenges with dealers, but they didn’t seem impossible.
hunoraut
Posts: 1880
Joined: Sun May 31, 2020 11:39 am

Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by hunoraut »

just frank wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:54 pm
EV battery prices are down to about $100/kWh in 2024 (OEM cost, not retail price). For a 75 kWh pack, that is $7500.

I see replacing an ICE engine is costing in the $4-8k range.

That is what I mean by 'slightly more'. Not apples to apples, bc that is retail installed versus OEM cost...

The problem with asking for the retail price for a Model 3 pack is that they are not for sale... all 3's are still under warranty, and Tesla doesn't have to tell you what it costs to replace a pack. And when they are out of warranty, they can refuse to sell you a pack for cost, or at all. That's capitalism.

But in an EV future where EVs are as common as ICE vehicles, there will be replacement packs at competitive prices. And if Wright's Law is correct, those packs will cost less than an ICE engine does now.
I think its a fair characterization that, at the moment, the EV drivetrain is more expensive than the ICE drivetrain. The main reason being the EV battery consolidates many ICE components (though not direct functional analogues) and the battery itself cant be replaced by individual cells/modules.

But for sure, the cost to manufacture batteries have been and are getting drastically cheaper. The cost to manufacture motors and transmissions havent gone anywhere.

In 10 years, im confident we can get a replacement battery pack for cheaper, whether oem or 3rd party or new or remanufactured at retail or wholesale cost. Whereas firstly youre not gonna be able to get a new motor or transmission at all, and the remanuf/salvaged ones wont have dropped in price.

Also, the condition of the EV drivetrain is going to be a helluva lot fresher.
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