Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

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artbuc
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Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by artbuc »

[Title clarified, topic moved to Investing - Theory, News & General subforum - moderator Kendall]

Predicting near term correction for S&P 500. Do they have credibility or just another “the sky is falling” forecast?
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Re: Stifel

Post by jebmke »

Time will tell
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Re: Stifel

Post by muffins14 »

artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 10:55 am Predicting near term correction for S&P 500. Do they have credibility or just another “the sky is falling” forecast?
Of course they don't know this. They are generating clicks for attention and ad revenue. It is a waste of your time
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Re: Stifel

Post by Normchad »

muffins14 wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 10:58 am
artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 10:55 am Predicting near term correction for S&P 500. Do they have credibility or just another “the sky is falling” forecast?
Of course they don't know this. They are generating clicks for attention and ad revenue. It is a waste of your time
+1. If they knew, they would not be telling you.
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TimeIsYourFriend
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Re: Stifel

Post by TimeIsYourFriend »

No one has credibility predicting stock market crashes. If they had credibility, like some magic special sauce, and the majority of investors believed they did, then there'd be a sell-off as soon as they said something. No one has that ability but some have randomly got lucky with a prediction.
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artbuc
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Re: Stifel

Post by artbuc »

Right, no one can predict but some experts are generally viewed as serious and credible while others are bomb throwers. Just wondering which camp Stifel lives in.
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Re: Stifel

Post by cosmos »

artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 10:55 am Predicting near term correction for S&P 500. Do they have credibility or just another “the sky is falling” forecast?
Is this the guy who was predicting that it will fall to it's 1975 peak "this year"? I try to avoid those yahoo marketwatch like links heh.
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Re: Stifel

Post by muffins14 »

artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 11:22 am Right, no one can predict but some experts are generally viewed as serious and credible while others are bomb throwers. Just wondering which camp Stifel lives in.
Why does it matter? He does not know, he is also just making things up to generate clicks, establish a brand, and sell ad revenue for someone.
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Re: Stifel

Post by nisiprius »

Wikipedia's article on Stifel says it's a multinational investment bank and financial services company, founded in 1890 as "Altheimer and Rawlings," with 9,000 employees and $37 billion in assets. So it isn't someone from a twelve-man advisory firm posting on Seeking Alpha, but it's no JPMorganChase either.

How about a link to some article, preferably one released by Stifel itself, about what they are saying?
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Re: Stifel

Post by popoki »

Here's a recent story about another doomsday predictor who is never correct.

Robert Kiyosaki's Track Record on Predicting Stock Market Crashes: The "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author has an abysmal record when it comes to stocks.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/arti ... et-crashes

His latest prediction came on May 2 when S&P 500 opened at 5,049. Currently 5,225.

May 2, 2024 (tweet): "BAD NEWS: CRASH has BEGUN. It will be a bad one."

Citing no evidence for his assertion, Kiyosaki is no longer predicting a crash ... it's here, folks! He goes on to issue a number of rules one should remember in a crash, including "Wait til prices have bottomed" before buying and "DON'T SAVE MONEY."

Though the famed pessimist may not explain why he thinks his prophecy of a crash is finally materializing, one can infer that it directly relates to his objectively incorrect belief that the U.S. economy is in a depression, a warped view he ranted about in a tweet just a week before he announced an ongoing crash.
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Re: Stifel

Post by nisiprius »

Here's Stifel Quarterly Market Perspectives for Q2 2024.

I'm darned if I see any reference to a prediction of a "near-term market correction," unless it's this:
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast model estimates the U.S. economy expanded 2.3% in the first quarter, reigniting hopes for a soft landing. As we look ahead, despite what seems to be unwavering economic optimism in the media and among some market watchers, we challenge ourselves to think differently. While not our base case, a recession still remains a possibility. Our 2024 Outlook called for muted economic growth and we are closely watching the consumer, who may be showing signs of a slowdown in spending. We caution that company earnings forecasts for the full year may be too optimistic, potentially leading to market volatility. However, we would view a market correction as an opportunity to dollar cost average and invest excess cash into a well diversified portfolio.
That's not doomsday alarmism, that's "on-the-one-hand-on-the-other-hand" play-it-safe blather.
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by TimeIsYourFriend »

"Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy." - John C. Bogle
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by drk »

Investment management companies are paid by their clients to make predictions about where the market is going. Every month, you can find similar client notes from JPM, Morgan Stanley, BofA, etc. If your IPS doesn't call for making changes in response to these notes, there's no reason to pay attention. Tune out the noise, stay the course, etc.
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by Doctor Rhythm »

OP - are your savings allocated in a way that you could weather a bear market (eg, 2022, 2020, or even 2008) without feeling terrible? If so, then don’t worry and don’t make decisions based on other people’s predictions.
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by artbuc »

Doctor Rhythm wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 12:06 pm OP - are your savings allocated in a way that you could weather a bear market (eg, 2022, 2020, or even 2008) without feeling terrible? If so, then don’t worry and don’t make decisions based on other people’s predictions.

Yes, no problem on my end. I did not capitulate on stocks in 2000, 2008, 2020 or 2022.
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by celia »

We inherited accounts that were managed by Stifel. They held the typical batch of odds and ends that we sold after death as soon as we could. Nothing looked like there was a plan. Just buy and sell and advise the account owner to do things that were bad advice.

One suggestion my in-laws followed was to open an account in DH's name (and SSN) without telling us. When we found out, I said "thanks, but no thanks" as I can't file our taxes that include something I can't control and for which I don't get the tax forms.

The Stifel advisor should have used common sense instead. I'm glad we got out of there as soon as we could.
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by rockstar »

You’ll only know in hindsight. Bookmark this, and we can discuss this over the holidays.
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by nisiprius »

TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 11:54 am one example of the article: https://www.morningstar.com/news/market ... -heres-why
Thank you!

They are talking about a
a correction of roughly 10%, i.e. a mild one.
I haven't updated my data since 2021, but from 1/31/1926 through 1/31/2021 there have been 75 declines of 10% or more, or an average of one every 15 months. A year with one is normal, a year without one is an exception.

Even if they are right, a -10% correction is always a bummer when it actually happens, but it's not rare and not something to be too alarmed about.

And now for something really important: is "Stifel" pronounced to rhyme with "rifle" or with "riffle?"
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by MadHungarian »

"Those who know don't say, and those who say don't know."

I think that was a line from Liar's Poker.
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Re: Stifel

Post by Nate79 »

artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 11:22 am Right, no one can predict but some experts are generally viewed as serious and credible while others are bomb throwers. Just wondering which camp Stifel lives in.
No, I don't think anyone is considered serious and credible for predicting the future. So no to all of this.
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Re: Stifel

Post by artbuc »

Nate79 wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 4:51 pm
artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 11:22 am Right, no one can predict but some experts are generally viewed as serious and credible while others are bomb throwers. Just wondering which camp Stifel lives in.
No, I don't think anyone is considered serious and credible for predicting the future. So no to all of this.
I meant serious and credible in general as an investor.
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by Joe Public »

nisiprius wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 12:51 pmAnd now for something really important: is "Stifel" pronounced to rhyme with "rifle" or with "riffle?"
It’s actually STEE-ful.
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Re: Stifel

Post by Nate79 »

artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 5:02 pm
Nate79 wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 4:51 pm
artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 11:22 am Right, no one can predict but some experts are generally viewed as serious and credible while others are bomb throwers. Just wondering which camp Stifel lives in.
No, I don't think anyone is considered serious and credible for predicting the future. So no to all of this.
I meant serious and credible in general as an investor.
What does serious or credible have to do with the subject of predicting the future? Don't you think that if a serious and credible investor makes a prediction they lose their credibility since no one by definition can predict the future?
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Re: Stifel

Post by artbuc »

Nate79 wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 5:44 pm
artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 5:02 pm
Nate79 wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 4:51 pm
artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 11:22 am Right, no one can predict but some experts are generally viewed as serious and credible while others are bomb throwers. Just wondering which camp Stifel lives in.
No, I don't think anyone is considered serious and credible for predicting the future. So no to all of this.
I meant serious and credible in general as an investor.
What does serious or credible have to do with the subject of predicting the future? Don't you think that if a serious and credible investor makes a prediction they lose their credibility since no one by definition can predict the future?
Please read what I posted. I never talked about someone who can credibly predict the future. In fact I specifically acknowledged that it is impossible to do that. Serious credible investors may speculate about headwinds or the possibility of a near term correction based on objective technical analysis. A bomb thrower makes assertions to draw attention based on nothing and has a track record of doing that.
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Re: Stifel

Post by esteen »

artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 5:51 pm
Nate79 wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 5:44 pm
artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 5:02 pm
Nate79 wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 4:51 pm
artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 11:22 am Right, no one can predict but some experts are generally viewed as serious and credible while others are bomb throwers. Just wondering which camp Stifel lives in.
No, I don't think anyone is considered serious and credible for predicting the future. So no to all of this.
I meant serious and credible in general as an investor.
What does serious or credible have to do with the subject of predicting the future? Don't you think that if a serious and credible investor makes a prediction they lose their credibility since no one by definition can predict the future?
Please read what I posted. I never talked about someone who can credibly predict the future. In fact I specifically acknowledged that it is impossible to do that. Serious credible investors may speculate about headwinds or the possibility of a near term correction based on objective technical analysis. A bomb thrower makes assertions to draw attention based on nothing and has a track record of doing that.
I think others are saying that regardless of intent (whether they truly believe their forecast vs just stirring the pot), both camps of predictors are about as accurate as the other. Which is to say, neither are accurate at all. So they can believe or disbelieve their own prediction all they want... it's just as useless to us retail investors.
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by artbuc »

Ok, I give up. I simply wanted the forum’s opinion of this guy. Is he well know and respected in the investment community. I was not asking about the accuracy of his prediction. I guess I need to do a better job of formulating my questions. Same thing just happened on my post about SEC yield.
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by Claudia Whitten »

artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 10:55 am [Title clarified, topic moved to Investing - Theory, News & General subforum - moderator Kendall]

Predicting near term correction for S&P 500. Do they have credibility or just another “the sky is falling” forecast?
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by retired@50 »

artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 6:14 pm Ok, I give up. I simply wanted the forum’s opinion of this guy. Is he well know and respected in the investment community. I was not asking about the accuracy of his prediction. I guess I need to do a better job of formulating my questions. Same thing just happened on my post about SEC yield.
What guy? I didn't see you post any links to anything having to do with Stifel or any particular person?

Regards,
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 6:14 pm Ok, I give up. I simply wanted the forum’s opinion of this guy. Is he well know and respected in the investment community. I was not asking about the accuracy of his prediction. I guess I need to do a better job of formulating my questions. Same thing just happened on my post about SEC yield.
but you didn't provide a link to what you read/heard so how/why should we analyze a second hand account? Shouldn't we be able to read it for ourselves and then we're all able to interpret the same thing, albeit, could be interpreted differently.
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by KPG »

Unfortunately I do not know how to link this article to this post. " Are stocks going to crash? This forecasting tool hasn't been wrong in 65 years, and it has a sobering message for wall street". Sean Williams, The Motley Fool, May 12, 2024. KPG
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Re: Stifel

Post by HanSolo »

artbuc wrote: Mon May 13, 2024 11:22 am Right, no one can predict but some experts are generally viewed as serious and credible while others are bomb throwers. Just wondering which camp Stifel lives in.
Lots of credible experts predicted that there would be a recession in 2023. They were all wrong.

There's always some number of credible experts predicting a crash or recession, etc. There's never been a day in the history of markets where there weren't any credible experts making such a prediction. So today is no different from every day.

They may be right eventually, but often get the year (or even decade) wrong.

That's why they say "tune out the noise" (which includes market predictions).
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by nisiprius »

KPG wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 10:57 am Unfortunately I do not know how to link this article to this post. " Are stocks going to crash? This forecasting tool hasn't been wrong in 65 years, and it has a sobering message for wall street". Sean Williams, The Motley Fool, May 12, 2024. KPG
It's here: Are stocks going to crash?
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Re: Stifel [investment adviser making market prediction]

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

nisiprius wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 2:15 pm
KPG wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 10:57 am Unfortunately I do not know how to link this article to this post. " Are stocks going to crash? This forecasting tool hasn't been wrong in 65 years, and it has a sobering message for wall street". Sean Williams, The Motley Fool, May 12, 2024. KPG
It's here: Are stocks going to crash?
Since the article ends in a question "Are stocks going to crash?" then we're dealing with:
Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no." It is named after Ian Betteridge, a British technology journalist who wrote about it in 2009, although the principle is much older.
I feel much better now

actually the article says:
While this may not be what investors want to hear, patience and perspective can change everything.

Although recessions can be scary and result in higher unemployment and temporarily weaker wage growth for workers, they're ultimately a normal and inevitable part of the economic cycle. More importantly, they don't last very long.

Since the end of World War II in September 1945, there have been a dozen recessions declared by NBER. Nine of these downturns were resolved in less than 12 months, with none of the remaining three surpassing 18 months.

On the other side of the coin, most economic expansions over the last 78 years and change have extended well past the one-year mark. In fact, two periods of growth stuck around for more than a decade. Taking a step back and understanding the importance of a long-term approach makes these inevitable downturns in the U.S. economy far more manageable.
so basically stay the course. Maybe the OP didn't read the article, just the headline as all too often happens?
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