International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13668
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by watchnerd »

Image
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
User avatar
Gort
Posts: 972
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2007 5:07 pm
Location: Texas

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by Gort »

deleted
Last edited by Gort on Tue Apr 02, 2024 3:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 15194
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:22 pm

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

just noticed US is now 62.20% of the VT (think it used to be 60/40):
https://investor.vanguard.com/investmen ... omposition

which means International is only 37.8% of VT.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
HarryEnz
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:17 pm

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by HarryEnz »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 5:30 pm Shouldn't this post be moved to the master thread on international investing?
I think this is the thread you are referring to. Since I am new here, I had no idea that this existed. Thanks.

viewtopic.php?t=409214
User avatar
AerialWombat
Posts: 3120
Joined: Tue May 29, 2018 1:07 pm
Location: Cashtown, Cashylvania

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by AerialWombat »

Beensabu wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:04 pm There's no point in forcing yourself to hold something you're always second guessing and probably won't end up being able to hold anyway.
This. So, so much this. Honestly, this is the only reason I even need for not holding international. I know from experience that I’ll never second guess domestic, but international I always would.
This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
Topic Author
CraigTester
Posts: 1529
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:34 am

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by CraigTester »

AerialWombat wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 6:33 pm
Beensabu wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:04 pm There's no point in forcing yourself to hold something you're always second guessing and probably won't end up being able to hold anyway.
This. So, so much this. Honestly, this is the only reason I even need for not holding international. I know from experience that I’ll never second guess domestic, but international I always would.
Not suggesting you should do anything different than what you can stick to..., but it is interesting to wonder if Japanese citizens felt this way in the 80's....

There is an interesting chart about this in the attached, titled:

"Investors’ portfolios tend to overweight their home country no matter where they live"

https://international.schwab.com/conten ... tionally-0

P.S. Let me know if anyone wants to add this chart to the list in the OP....
Nathan Drake
Posts: 6255
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:28 am

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by Nathan Drake »

AerialWombat wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 6:33 pm
Beensabu wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:04 pm There's no point in forcing yourself to hold something you're always second guessing and probably won't end up being able to hold anyway.
This. So, so much this. Honestly, this is the only reason I even need for not holding international. I know from experience that I’ll never second guess domestic, but international I always would.
Why?

What’s the point of anchoring?

Do you not look under the hood of VTI and see what is individually doing poorly compared to QQQ?

Or is it because of the two fund set-up? I have a solution for that, it’s called VT or a TDF
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
User avatar
AerialWombat
Posts: 3120
Joined: Tue May 29, 2018 1:07 pm
Location: Cashtown, Cashylvania

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by AerialWombat »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:09 am Do you not look under the hood of VTI and see what is individually doing poorly compared to QQQ?
Nope. Don’t know, and don’t care. Insert list of simplicity quotes here.
This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
Nathan Drake
Posts: 6255
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:28 am

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by Nathan Drake »

AerialWombat wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:31 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:09 am Do you not look under the hood of VTI and see what is individually doing poorly compared to QQQ?
Nope. Don’t know, and don’t care. Insert list of simplicity quotes here.
Then you’d do the same with a single fund approach
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
User avatar
Charles Joseph
Posts: 2453
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2022 10:49 pm

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by Charles Joseph »

TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:56 pm I think someone is playing an April fool's joke on us.
No. Absolutely not. PS I love your name. See my Munger quote. :sharebeer
"The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting." - Charles Munger
User avatar
TimeIsYourFriend
Posts: 569
Joined: Sun Dec 17, 2023 11:19 am

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by TimeIsYourFriend »

Charles Joseph wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 10:02 am
TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:56 pm I think someone is playing an April fool's joke on us.
No. Absolutely not. PS I love your name. See my Munger quote. :sharebeer
Ah, ha. You were so determined on US only so I wasn't sure. :sharebeer
"Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy." - John C. Bogle
User avatar
Charles Joseph
Posts: 2453
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2022 10:49 pm

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by Charles Joseph »

Beensabu wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:04 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:33 pm what changed in your beliefs over 22 hours and 24 minutes?
It's just that nothing changed in their beliefs prior to that.

There's no point in forcing yourself to hold something you're always second guessing and probably won't end up being able to hold anyway.
This, right here. Thanks. Thanks. Thank you.

I was almost emotionally fooled into changing course due to some scary future return estimates by a large, well-known brokerage firm which will go un-named. This firm presented, in my opinion, marketing material as research material.

I'm recently retired, and I panicked a bit when saw a report with return estimates that showed ex-US returning double US over the next decade, with both estimates showing a two-percent return range. So exact!! So precise!! How could they be wrong with knowledge such as that!!

Then I came to my senses. Total trash. Total garbage. Stay the course, CJ. You've had thousands of reasons over 25 years for staying the course. Don't change now because of marketing fluff disguised as academic research.

Whew. Close one.
"The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting." - Charles Munger
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5728
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by Beensabu »

Charles Joseph wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 10:10 am Then I came to my senses. Total trash. Total garbage. Stay the course, CJ. You've had thousands of reasons over 25 years for staying the course. Don't change now because of marketing fluff disguised as academic research.
It is possible to not hold something that you don't want while also not trash talking it every chance you get.

If the trash talk is what helps you stay the course, then you need another strategy in the wings for whenever exUS has a particularly good stretch.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95995
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by LadyGeek »

Let's avoid trash talking. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable asking questions and where debates and discussions are conducted in civil tones.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Topic Author
CraigTester
Posts: 1529
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:34 am

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by CraigTester »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 6:25 pm just noticed US is now 62.20% of the VT (think it used to be 60/40):
https://investor.vanguard.com/investmen ... omposition

which means International is only 37.8% of VT.
Thanks, just updated the OP....
User avatar
Charles Joseph
Posts: 2453
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2022 10:49 pm

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by Charles Joseph »

Beensabu wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 10:26 am
Charles Joseph wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 10:10 am Then I came to my senses. Total trash. Total garbage. Stay the course, CJ. You've had thousands of reasons over 25 years for staying the course. Don't change now because of marketing fluff disguised as academic research.
It is possible to not hold something that you don't want while also not trash talking it every chance you get.

If the trash talk is what helps you stay the course, then you need another strategy in the wings for whenever exUS has a particularly good stretch.
My apologies for being less clear. In my opinion the estimates provided by the brokerage report with such narrow surety were what I was referring to, not ex-US equities or companies. I fully respect someone who decides to invest in ex-US equities, all the way up to global weighting.

On further reflection I of course should have been less harsh in general with my speech. Apologies.
Last edited by Charles Joseph on Tue Apr 02, 2024 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
"The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting." - Charles Munger
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5728
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by Beensabu »

Charles Joseph wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 11:10 am My apologies for being less clear. In my opinion the estimates provided by the brokerage report with such narrow surety were what I was referring to, not ex-US equities or companies. I fully respect someone who decides to invest in ex-US equities, all the way up to market weight.

On further I should have less harsh in general with my speech. Apologies.
Thanks for the clarification! My apologies for misconstruing your words.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
User avatar
Charles Joseph
Posts: 2453
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2022 10:49 pm

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by Charles Joseph »

Beensabu wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 11:14 am
Charles Joseph wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 11:10 am My apologies for being less clear. In my opinion the estimates provided by the brokerage report with such narrow surety were what I was referring to, not ex-US equities or companies. I fully respect someone who decides to invest in ex-US equities, all the way up to market weight.

On further I should have less harsh in general with my speech. Apologies.
Thanks for the clarification! My apologies for misconstruing your words.
The fault was all mine!
"The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting." - Charles Munger
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95995
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters. Attacks on individuals, insults, name calling, trolling, baiting or other attempts to sow dissension are not acceptable.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
unwitting_gulag
Posts: 695
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:37 pm

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by unwitting_gulag »

Charles Joseph wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 10:10 am
Beensabu wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:04 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:33 pm what changed in your beliefs over 22 hours and 24 minutes?
It's just that nothing changed in their beliefs prior to that.

There's no point in forcing yourself to hold something you're always second guessing and probably won't end up being able to hold anyway.
This, right here. Thanks. Thanks. Thank you.

I was almost emotionally fooled into changing course due to some scary future return estimates by a large, well-known brokerage firm which will go un-named. This firm presented, in my opinion, marketing material as research material.

I'm recently retired, and I panicked a bit when saw a report with return estimates that showed ex-US returning double US over the next decade, with both estimates showing a two-percent return range. So exact!! So precise!! How could they be wrong with knowledge such as that!!

Then I came to my senses. Total trash. Total garbage. Stay the course, CJ. You've had thousands of reasons over 25 years for staying the course. Don't change now because of marketing fluff disguised as academic research.

Whew. Close one.
It's hard to reconcile our personal beliefs/feelings with a sense of "wisdom", whether it's a Galbraith-style conventional wisdom, or something claiming to be scientific. It's even harder if our own beliefs are conflicted. By this I mean a general feeling in favor of diversification, and a recoiling from nationalistic bias, on the one hand... and complete loss of faith in ex-US, on the other. So, I hold a good smattering of ex-US, and will continue to do so, all while second-guessing myself, and deeply regretting my ex-US position, year after year.

The US vs. ex-US debate isn't isolated. We could say similarly, about small-cap vs. large, value vs. growth, some percentage of bond-allocation vs. 100% equities. In all of these, there's our personal emotional desire, vs. the wisdom... and even within personal emotions, there are internal conflicts. The result is a sense of malaise, confusion, self-doubt,,, that only grows with experience, rather than waning. I have no solution.
User avatar
Charles Joseph
Posts: 2453
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2022 10:49 pm

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by Charles Joseph »

unwitting_gulag wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:48 pm
Charles Joseph wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 10:10 am
Beensabu wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:04 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:33 pm what changed in your beliefs over 22 hours and 24 minutes?
It's just that nothing changed in their beliefs prior to that.

There's no point in forcing yourself to hold something you're always second guessing and probably won't end up being able to hold anyway.
This, right here. Thanks. Thanks. Thank you.

I was almost emotionally fooled into changing course due to some scary future return estimates by a large, well-known brokerage firm which will go un-named. This firm presented, in my opinion, marketing material as research material.

I'm recently retired, and I panicked a bit when saw a report with return estimates that showed ex-US returning double US over the next decade, with both estimates showing a two-percent return range. So exact!! So precise!! How could they be wrong with knowledge such as that!!

Then I came to my senses. Total trash. Total garbage. Stay the course, CJ. You've had thousands of reasons over 25 years for staying the course. Don't change now because of marketing fluff disguised as academic research.

Whew. Close one.
It's hard to reconcile our personal beliefs/feelings with a sense of "wisdom", whether it's a Galbraith-style conventional wisdom, or something claiming to be scientific. It's even harder if our own beliefs are conflicted. By this I mean a general feeling in favor of diversification, and a recoiling from nationalistic bias, on the one hand... and complete loss of faith in ex-US, on the other. So, I hold a good smattering of ex-US, and will continue to do so, all while second-guessing myself, and deeply regretting my ex-US position, year after year.

The US vs. ex-US debate isn't isolated. We could say similarly, about small-cap vs. large, value vs. growth, some percentage of bond-allocation vs. 100% equities. In all of these, there's our personal emotional desire, vs. the wisdom... and even within personal emotions, there are internal conflicts. The result is a sense of malaise, confusion, self-doubt,,, that only grows with experience, rather than waning. I have no solution.
Very insightful and eye opening. Thank you. Your logic also applies to intermediate-term bonds over the last couple of years. I’ve held on despite underperformance and have no intention of changing course. Emotion vs wisdom.

Food for thought. Thanks again.
"The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting." - Charles Munger
User avatar
AerialWombat
Posts: 3120
Joined: Tue May 29, 2018 1:07 pm
Location: Cashtown, Cashylvania

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by AerialWombat »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:31 am
AerialWombat wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:31 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:09 am Do you not look under the hood of VTI and see what is individually doing poorly compared to QQQ?
Nope. Don’t know, and don’t care. Insert list of simplicity quotes here.
Then you’d do the same with a single fund approach
Quite the contrary. If I held VT, I know that I would be constantly second-guessing the international component, because I've done exactly that before. Once I went to VTI, I've never given it a second thought. It's been a few years since making that move, and I feel very comfortable predicting that I'll continue to be 1/3 VTI for the rest of my life.
This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13668
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by watchnerd »

AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:19 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:31 am
AerialWombat wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:31 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:09 am Do you not look under the hood of VTI and see what is individually doing poorly compared to QQQ?
Nope. Don’t know, and don’t care. Insert list of simplicity quotes here.
Then you’d do the same with a single fund approach
Quite the contrary. If I held VT, I know that I would be constantly second-guessing the international component, because I've done exactly that before. Once I went to VTI, I've never given it a second thought. It's been a few years since making that move, and I feel very comfortable predicting that I'll continue to be 1/3 VTI for the rest of my life.
I hold VT and never do what you describe, i.e. second guess the international component or feel compelled to 'look under the hood'.

So if you're caring about the details of VT, but not VTI, this would seem to be a behavioral matter.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
User avatar
SB1234
Posts: 1128
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:41 pm
Location: Laniakea

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by SB1234 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:19 pm
AerialWombat wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:19 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:31 am
AerialWombat wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:31 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:09 am Do you not look under the hood of VTI and see what is individually doing poorly compared to QQQ?
Nope. Don’t know, and don’t care. Insert list of simplicity quotes here.
Then you’d do the same with a single fund approach
Quite the contrary. If I held VT, I know that I would be constantly second-guessing the international component, because I've done exactly that before. Once I went to VTI, I've never given it a second thought. It's been a few years since making that move, and I feel very comfortable predicting that I'll continue to be 1/3 VTI for the rest of my life.
I hold VT and never do what you describe, i.e. second guess the international component or feel compelled to 'look under the hood'.

So if you're caring about the details of VT, but not VTI, this would seem to be a behavioral matter.
No surprises there. It's indeed behavioral.
While many are content to consider their (investment) vehicles as a tool to go from point A to B, there are many others who look under the hood to have a (investment) vehicle more suitable for them.
superstition: belief that market will one day come around to your concept of fair value
User avatar
SB1234
Posts: 1128
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:41 pm
Location: Laniakea

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by SB1234 »

user walkure posted this link in another thread about foreign holdings of US securities. I thought It might be relevant in this topic.
https://home.treasury.gov/data/treasury ... securities

This is the summary of holdings.
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/shlptab1.html

Cayman Islands is one of the largest holders. I wonder why :D
superstition: belief that market will one day come around to your concept of fair value
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13668
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by watchnerd »

SB1234 wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2024 7:26 pm user walkure posted this link in another thread about foreign holdings of US securities. I thought It might be relevant in this topic.
https://home.treasury.gov/data/treasury ... securities

This is the summary of holdings.
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/shlptab1.html

Cayman Islands is one of the largest holders. I wonder why :D
I think we have to be careful.

"Cayman Islands", i.e. the government, isn't one of the largest holders. Entities domiciled in Cayman Islands are one of the largest holders.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
User avatar
HanSolo
Posts: 2377
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 3:18 am

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by HanSolo »

unwitting_gulag wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:48 pm The US vs. ex-US debate isn't isolated. We could say similarly, about small-cap vs. large, value vs. growth, some percentage of bond-allocation vs. 100% equities. In all of these, there's our personal emotional desire, vs. the wisdom... and even within personal emotions, there are internal conflicts. The result is a sense of malaise, confusion, self-doubt,,, that only grows with experience, rather than waning. I have no solution.
I suggest that this thread can provide a solution, depending on whether anyone wants a solution.

I don't mean "solution" in the sense of deciding which allocation is "right", I mean "solution" in the sense of finally recognizing that there's no need for a debate. The opening post provides reasons why people choose one of various example portfolios. Everyone is free to decide what reasons they accept, and to invest accordingly. So, just do it.

There seems to be this axiom that there's only one "right" allocation and it needs to be debated. I reject that axiom.

Or, this thread can be used to pursue an endless debate, if that's what people want. Debating is also a hobby.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Topic Author
CraigTester
Posts: 1529
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:34 am

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by CraigTester »

HanSolo wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2024 4:51 am
unwitting_gulag wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:48 pm The US vs. ex-US debate isn't isolated. We could say similarly, about small-cap vs. large, value vs. growth, some percentage of bond-allocation vs. 100% equities. In all of these, there's our personal emotional desire, vs. the wisdom... and even within personal emotions, there are internal conflicts. The result is a sense of malaise, confusion, self-doubt,,, that only grows with experience, rather than waning. I have no solution.
I suggest that this thread can provide a solution, depending on whether anyone wants a solution.

I don't mean "solution" in the sense of deciding which allocation is "right", I mean "solution" in the sense of finally recognizing that there's no need for a debate. The opening post provides reasons why people choose one of various example portfolios. Everyone is free to decide what reasons they accept, and to invest accordingly. So, just do it.

There seems to be this axiom that there's only one "right" allocation and it needs to be debated. I reject that axiom.

Or, this thread can be used to pursue an endless debate, if that's what people want. Debating is also a hobby.
The goal is not to debate (or not debate).

The goal is to produce the list in the OP.

And the debate has produced the list.

When the debate is done, the list will be done.

When that will happen is up for debate.
User avatar
HanSolo
Posts: 2377
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 3:18 am

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by HanSolo »

CraigTester wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2024 5:18 am
HanSolo wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2024 4:51 am
unwitting_gulag wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2024 7:48 pm The US vs. ex-US debate isn't isolated. We could say similarly, about small-cap vs. large, value vs. growth, some percentage of bond-allocation vs. 100% equities. In all of these, there's our personal emotional desire, vs. the wisdom... and even within personal emotions, there are internal conflicts. The result is a sense of malaise, confusion, self-doubt,,, that only grows with experience, rather than waning. I have no solution.
I suggest that this thread can provide a solution, depending on whether anyone wants a solution.

I don't mean "solution" in the sense of deciding which allocation is "right", I mean "solution" in the sense of finally recognizing that there's no need for a debate. The opening post provides reasons why people choose one of various example portfolios. Everyone is free to decide what reasons they accept, and to invest accordingly. So, just do it.

There seems to be this axiom that there's only one "right" allocation and it needs to be debated. I reject that axiom.

Or, this thread can be used to pursue an endless debate, if that's what people want. Debating is also a hobby.
The goal is not to debate (or not debate).

The goal is to produce the list in the OP.

And the debate has produced the list.

When the debate is done, the list will be done.

When that will happen is up for debate.
I was responding to the comment, "there's our personal emotional desire, vs. the wisdom... and even within personal emotions, there are internal conflicts. The result is a sense of malaise, confusion, self-doubt,,,". I was referring to that (an internal debate) and also to debates of the form "I do what I do, and those who do differently are wrong". My point was that neither of those serve a practical purpose (in this thread, or in life), but we still see them a lot in the thread.

On the other hand, if people post "this is what's right for me and here's why, and if other people have other reasons to do what they do, there's nothing wrong with that either", then I don't call that a debate. If that's also a "debate", then that would be the constructive kind. I was referring to unconstructive debate (which there's a lot of).
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Tom_T
Posts: 4885
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2007 2:33 pm

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by Tom_T »

CraigTester wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2024 5:18 am
The goal is not to debate (or not debate).

The goal is to produce the list in the OP.

And the debate has produced the list.

When the debate is done, the list will be done.

When that will happen is up for debate.
Oh, that may have been your intention when you started this thread, but that is no longer its purpose. The moderators have decided that this thread is the single place for all U.S.-vs.-international discussions. They've said as much in other threads which were closed and even merged into this one. They got tired of the same discussions popping up over and over, so they threw up their hands and put it all under one roof so that a few diehards can spend eternity repeating the same arguments.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13668
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: I Caved On International Equities

Post by watchnerd »

Tom_T wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2024 1:11 pm Oh, that may have been your intention when you started this thread, but that is no longer its purpose. The moderators have decided that this thread is the single place for all U.S.-vs.-international discussions. They've said as much in other threads which were closed and even merged into this one. They got tired of the same discussions popping up over and over, so they threw up their hands and put it all under one roof so that a few diehards can spend eternity repeating the same arguments.
Yep!

This is the Bermuda Triangle of US vs international debates.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
User avatar
Stef
Posts: 1369
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by Stef »

If international stocks keep underperforming, the US might make up 70% of VT in less than a decade.
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5728
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by Beensabu »

Stef wrote: Fri Apr 05, 2024 12:09 am If international stocks keep underperforming, the US might make up 70% of VT in less than a decade.
I've thought about it for a long time, and that would definitely be my inverse market cap signal.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
nyejos11
Posts: 229
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:04 am

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by nyejos11 »

Here's another knock against investing in European companies, from CBS news the other day:

"Criminal networks in the European Union are penetrating legal businesses across the 27-nation bloc and rely heavily on corruption to develop their activities. That's the bleak picture emerging from a report published Friday by the EU crime agency."
Apparently we are investing in mafia style organizations.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13668
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by watchnerd »

nyejos11 wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2024 3:55 pm Here's another knock against investing in European companies, from CBS news the other day:

"Criminal networks in the European Union are penetrating legal businesses across the 27-nation bloc and rely heavily on corruption to develop their activities. That's the bleak picture emerging from a report published Friday by the EU crime agency."
Apparently we are investing in mafia style organizations.
How many of those are publicly traded companies?
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
User avatar
cosmos
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:11 pm
Location: Third rock from the Sun

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by cosmos »

nyejos11 wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2024 3:55 pm Here's another knock against investing in European companies, from CBS news the other day:

"Criminal networks in the European Union are penetrating legal businesses across the 27-nation bloc and rely heavily on corruption to develop their activities. That's the bleak picture emerging from a report published Friday by the EU crime agency."
Apparently we are investing in mafia style organizations.
Thankfully this has never occured and cannot occur in the US. I mean imagine if something like the Teamsters pension fund came under mafia control... I shudder to think.
It's 106 miles to Chicago, we've got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses. Hit it.
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5728
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by Beensabu »

cosmos wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2024 4:14 pm
nyejos11 wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2024 3:55 pm Here's another knock against investing in European companies, from CBS news the other day:

"Criminal networks in the European Union are penetrating legal businesses across the 27-nation bloc and rely heavily on corruption to develop their activities. That's the bleak picture emerging from a report published Friday by the EU crime agency."
Apparently we are investing in mafia style organizations.
Thankfully this has never occured and cannot occur in the US. I mean imagine if something like the Teamsters pension fund came under mafia control... I shudder to think.
Are you being sarcastic?
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
JBTX
Posts: 11266
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:46 pm

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by JBTX »

Beensabu wrote: Fri Apr 05, 2024 12:42 am
Stef wrote: Fri Apr 05, 2024 12:09 am If international stocks keep underperforming, the US might make up 70% of VT in less than a decade.
I've thought about it for a long time, and that would definitely be my inverse market cap signal.
Perhaps somebody can reconcile these two

This says US market cap is 60% (which is my understanding)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/710 ... y-country/

But I see multiple sources that say us is about 40% of global market cap


https://www.sifma.org/resources/researc ... -equities/


https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global ... k-markets/


What is the difference?
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5728
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by Beensabu »

JBTX wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:13 am What is the difference?
SIFMA isn't free float-adjusted. It includes private / not publicly available.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
JBTX
Posts: 11266
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:46 pm

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by JBTX »

Beensabu wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:21 am
JBTX wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:13 am What is the difference?
SIFMA isn't free float-adjusted. It includes private / not publicly available.
Not sure I understand your answer re free float

So international has more non public equity than US?
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13668
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by watchnerd »

JBTX wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:43 am
Beensabu wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:21 am
JBTX wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:13 am What is the difference?
SIFMA isn't free float-adjusted. It includes private / not publicly available.
Not sure I understand your answer re free float

So international has more non public equity than US?
Most of the Chinese equity market is not publicly investable by non-Chinese.

Saudi Aramco is the #2 largest company in the world, but doesn't show up in most indices at market weight due to lack of free float.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Topic Author
CraigTester
Posts: 1529
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:34 am

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by CraigTester »

Just noticed this thread has reached over 975,000 views.... (without getting locked :sharebeer )

Will we reach 1M views before we complete our list in the OP?

What Arguments still need to be added .... ?
Silk McCue
Posts: 8988
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 6:11 pm

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by Silk McCue »

CraigTester wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 11:26 am Just noticed this thread has reached over 975,000 views.... (without getting locked :sharebeer )

Will we reach 1M views before we complete our list in the OP?

What Arguments still need to be added .... ?
This a designated megathread for this topic. New posts get merged in on a regular basis when folks report them for inclusion here.

Cheers
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 12167
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by TheTimeLord »

Silk McCue wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 11:43 am
CraigTester wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 11:26 am Just noticed this thread has reached over 975,000 views.... (without getting locked :sharebeer )

Will we reach 1M views before we complete our list in the OP?

What Arguments still need to be added .... ?
This a designated megathread for this topic. New posts get merged in on a regular basis when folks report them for inclusion here.

Cheers
Great job by The Mods to consolidate this into a single location for those who want to engage.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Topic Author
CraigTester
Posts: 1529
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:34 am

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by CraigTester »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 11:49 am
Silk McCue wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 11:43 am
CraigTester wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2024 11:26 am Just noticed this thread has reached over 975,000 views.... (without getting locked :sharebeer )

Will we reach 1M views before we complete our list in the OP?

What Arguments still need to be added .... ?
This a designated megathread for this topic. New posts get merged in on a regular basis when folks report them for inclusion here.

Cheers
Great job by The Mods to consolidate this into a single location for those who want to engage.
Hear Hear to the mods! We definitely had some very close calls...

P.S. Early in the thread, with support from LadyGeek, we were trying to build this for inclusion in the Wiki... But there was a poster that was very adamant against that idea, so here we are.... Mega-thread it is....

Probably get much broader participation this way, anyway ..., which was the original intent...
User avatar
Stef
Posts: 1369
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by Stef »

I wonder if people will discuss this topic for decades and if it will ever end.
CletusCaddy
Posts: 2741
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:23 am

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by CletusCaddy »

Why don’t folks ever bring up the fact that BNDX has outperformed BND since inception?
Topic Author
CraigTester
Posts: 1529
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:34 am

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by CraigTester »

Stef wrote: Mon Apr 08, 2024 12:22 am I wonder if people will discuss this topic for decades and if it will ever end.
My prediction is, it will never end.

Why?

There is an inherent conflict with saying "nobody knows nothing" ..., while at the same time, "tilting".

(Yet both are attributed to the namesake of this forum)

Couple this with McQ's 70-year post-WW2 chart showing a long-term sea-saw race, and you have everything you need for a race that never ends.

So when the US Out-performs, as it has so dramatically over the last decade, everyone wonders, is this time different....?

... Until capitulation finally occurs...,

...but only after way longer than anyone could have predicted (e.g. that's why they call it capitulation)

And the cycle repeats with the irresistible words, "I told you so"... hanging in the wind....
User avatar
HanSolo
Posts: 2377
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 3:18 am

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by HanSolo »

CraigTester wrote: Mon Apr 08, 2024 9:20 am
Stef wrote: Mon Apr 08, 2024 12:22 am I wonder if people will discuss this topic for decades and if it will ever end.
My prediction is, it will never end.

Why?

There is an inherent conflict with saying "nobody knows nothing" ..., while at the same time, "tilting".

(Yet both are attributed to the namesake of this forum)
Eventually, most new inquiries on this topic can be effectively handled by referring people to the opening post.

Perhaps we're close to that now.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
msterrr
Posts: 89
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:28 am

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Post by msterrr »

I'm considering a 55:45 US to Developed International split on the equity side. So 55:45 VTI:VEA or VTSAX:VTMGX.

This is roughly in line with the relative US and Developed International market weights when looking at the SIFMA global equity market cap. The full SIFMA split including US, Developed International and Emerging markets is 45:39:16 US:DEV:EM.

Essentially my intention is to skip EM exposure and hold a total international (ex-EM) equity holding with a US to Developed International equity split of 1.2:1 that's roughly aligned with SIFMA.

The FTSE All World Index having drifted so much towards the US recently makes me concerned that funds using this split (VT / VTWAX etc.) aren't getting the full benefit of international diversification any longer. FTSE All World Index is currently around 62:28:10 US:DEV:EM.

Thoughts on 55:45 US to Developed International overall as an equity holding split?
100% VSMGX || (eff. 36% VTSAX | 24% VTIAX | 28% VBLTX | 12% VTABX)
Post Reply