Is the November fixed I-bond rate roughly predictable in October?

[protagonist]

At some point in October, is it possible to roughly predict what the new fixed I-bond rate announced in November will be, with any accuracy?

[toddthebod]

At some point in October, is it possible to roughly predict what the new fixed I-bond rate announced in November will be, with any accuracy?

Read this:
https://tipswatch.com/2023/03/09/i-bond ... ate-reset/

[tibbitts]

At some point in October, is it possible to roughly predict what the new fixed I-bond rate announced in November will be, with any accuracy?

Opinions vary as to predictability of the fixed rate vs. the relatively more predictable variable rate.

[sailaway]

At some point in October, is it possible to roughly predict what the new fixed I-bond rate announced in November will be, with any accuracy?

Read this:
https://tipswatch.com/2023/03/09/i-bond ... ate-reset/

So, no, not really...

[alluringreality]

Like noted in the prior link before the last rate change, at this point it's pretty safe to roughly guess at a possible rise in the fixed rate for November. If TIPS rates happen to fall or rise substantially before the change in November, that might make any sort of estimate more difficult. The following currently only suggests a couple tenths of a percent rise in the fixed rate, so the potential payoff for a correct guess seems fairly insignificant to me. Generally it's difficult to say for sure what the next rate might be based around TIPS rates, since the older data seems to include more variation than that sort of amount.
viewtopic.php?p=7231977#p7231977

The link appears to be simply calculated for October by the following formula with the Treasury csv, yet as noted in the link, Treasury discretion seems fairly apparent in the past fixed rates.
=ROUND(AVERAGE(B2:B127)*0.65,1)
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-cent ... value=2023

[protagonist]

Like noted in the prior link before the last rate change, at this point it's pretty safe to roughly guess at a rise in the fixed rate for November. If TIPS rates happen to fall or rise substantially before the change in November, that might make any sort of estimate more difficult. The following currently only suggests a couple tenths of a percent rise in the fixed rate, so the potential payoff for a correct guess seems fairly insignificant to me.
viewtopic.php?p=7231977#p7231977

That appears to be simply calculated for October by the following formula with the Treasury csv, yet as noted in the link, there are clearly historical points like May 2009 where the formula would not have been accurate with the actual change.
=ROUND(AVERAGE(B2:B127)*0.65,1)
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-cent ... value=2023

Wow....I don't know if it was luck, but chem6022 nailed it at 0.9% last April.