[Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

[Marseille07]

I’m sure this has been discussed, but wanted to ask.

I’m think of moving my money from fidelity treasury money market to their cash account. Would this be prudent or paranoid? Would it even be helpful in the event of a default?

It is prudent in my opinion. You're the custodian of your money, you need to do what you think makes sense in case of a default.

[spencydub]

I’m sure this has been discussed, but wanted to ask.

I’m think of moving my money from fidelity treasury money market to their cash account. Would this be prudent or paranoid? Would it even be helpful in the event of a default?

It is prudent in my opinion. You're the custodian of your money, you need to do what you think makes sense in case of a default.

Thank you. I should have clarified that I know my first question (prudent or paranoid) is subject to opinion. I am looking for opinions.

[ehh]

I’m sure this has been discussed, but wanted to ask.

I’m think of moving my money from fidelity treasury money market to their cash account. Would this be prudent or paranoid? Would it even be helpful in the event of a default?

It is prudent in my opinion. You're the custodian of your money, you need to do what you think makes sense in case of a default.

Thank you. I should have clarified that I know my first question (prudent or paranoid) is subject to opinion. I am looking for opinions.

If you need the money within the next few months, prudent. My working assumption is the Federal Reserve will not allow the banking system to freeze up. If you don't need the money within the next few months, maybe a touch paranoid.

Of course, nobody knows. And, as Joseph Heller wrote in Catch-22

Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.

[rockstar]

This should drive up rates:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/24/fitch-u ... iling.html

Hopefully, I can buy higher yields next month.

[rockstar]

I’m sure this has been discussed, but wanted to ask.

I’m think of moving my money from fidelity treasury money market to their cash account. Would this be prudent or paranoid? Would it even be helpful in the event of a default?

What's the cash account invested in? In other words, when it's sitting in cash, what is fidelity doing with the money?

[itsmeagain]

I’m sure this has been discussed, but wanted to ask.

I’m think of moving my money from fidelity treasury money market to their cash account. Would this be prudent or paranoid? Would it even be helpful in the event of a default?

What's the cash account invested in? In other words, when it's sitting in cash, what is fidelity doing with the money?

The problem is that everything is connected. If the supposedly safest bonds in the world suddenly have a real risk of not being paid in a timely fashion, the whole system is fundamentally disrupted. Even just the threat of that sort of disruption could have serious and lasting consequences. It's all the more disappointing because it's a "self-inflicted" wound.

[Eno Deb]

I’m sure this has been discussed, but wanted to ask.

I’m think of moving my money from fidelity treasury money market to their cash account. Would this be prudent or paranoid? Would it even be helpful in the event of a default?

It may help to provide short-term liquidity in case your investments incur some kind of redemption restrictions. However, in case of a longer-term (catastrophic) scenario, there isn't really any safe place to put your money. Banks invest large parts of their customer deposits in treasuries, and if the latter rapidly drop in value due to a default or downgrade, they'd be in trouble. But I doubt very much it will come to that. Hopefully even today's politicians still have some shame.

[rockstar]

I’m sure this has been discussed, but wanted to ask.

I’m think of moving my money from fidelity treasury money market to their cash account. Would this be prudent or paranoid? Would it even be helpful in the event of a default?

What's the cash account invested in? In other words, when it's sitting in cash, what is fidelity doing with the money?

The problem is that everything is connected. If the supposedly safest bonds in the world suddenly have a real risk of not being paid in a timely fashion, the whole system is fundamentally disrupted. Even just the threat of that sort of disruption could have serious and lasting consequences. It's all the more disappointing because it's a "self-inflicted" wound.

It's one of those scenarios, where the only safe place for cash is sadly under the mattress. If you put it in "cash" in a financial institution, it's been most likely invested in something. If you want your cash back, that something needs to be sold. If it's a treasury, there is no guarantee.

I'm in the camp of not worrying about it. There is nothing I can really do besides selling everything, getting actual cash, and hide it around my home. At that point I'm clearly entering the turf of doomsday preppers. I guess, I could also buy physical gold too.

Given the Fitch action, I really expect yields to go up. So if you're not fearful, good yields can be had right now.

[Marseille07]

Given the Fitch action, I really expect yields to go up. So if you're not fearful, good yields can be had right now.

How high are we talking about? The Ten has already risen from 3.4% to 3.75% as of this writing.

[rockstar]

Given the Fitch action, I really expect yields to go up. So if you're not fearful, good yields can be had right now.

How high are we talking about? The Ten has already risen from 3.4% to 3.75% as of this writing.

I am guessing 4%. But we should see higher in the short end of the curve. That’s what is most at risk right now. It’s an opportunity for the brave.

[trirunner]

Given the Fitch action, I really expect yields to go up. So if you're not fearful, good yields can be had right now.

How high are we talking about? The Ten has already risen from 3.4% to 3.75% as of this writing.

3.4% was always unrealistic, coming from "let's fight the Fed" crowd. They have been fighting the Fed for the last year, and rate keep going up. There will be no cut this year, purely wishful thinking that the low rate from the last decade was the normal.

[StrangePenguin]

this part was interesting:

Sara Devereux: Well, we’ve been taking a number of steps within our bond and money market funds, such as not investing in Treasuries where the maturity dates fall in the potential default window whenever we can avoid it.

Indeed, very interesting. It makes perfect sense and it's probably the underlying reason for the eye-popping chart of Treasury yields by maturity date elsewhere in this thread -- professionals are avoiding the early June maturities like the plague, and are willing to see at a steep discount to get the ones they still hold off their hands.

[nisiprius]

Does the prospectus for VUSXX state that it is 100% safe under any condition? I don't use MM funds except for brief settlement stays so I have to confess, that was the one fund whose prospectus I have not read.

I highly doubt it would say that, but what bothers me is that I don't really feel like there is any totally "safe" option for me in this bizarre scenario.

It bothers me too. But it's life. Feelings of security are mostly recency bias.

As W. C. Fields may have said, "The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive."

The whole thing about black swans is that, let's say there are a thousand of them, but each has only a probability of 1/1000th. Then there's a 60% chance you will actually get bitten by one of them, but you don't know which. And effective protection against any specific one costs you 1% of your net worth, so protecting against all of them is ten times your net worth.

What we tend to do is focus on one or two potential black swans that particularly horrify us, and and then fall for near-scams that claim to protect us against them--but have never been tested because they've never occurred the same way before.

[Call_Me_Op]

The whole thing about black swans is that, let's say there are a thousand of them, but each has only a probability of 1/1000th. Then there's a 60% chance you will actually get bitten by one of them,

63.23% chance to be precise.

[rkhusky]

If payments are delayed, SS recipients are lucky that June 1 is a Thursday.

[hkcj]

I will say it again: I will be furious if I lose my money in VUSXX. I feel that I have been boxed into a corner and do not see a better option for me to store this money right now. If I actually lose money because of this, I will be completely furious.

Are you eligible for a Vanguard cash plus account? https://investor.vanguard.com/investmen ... nvestments

Thank you for this. I have recently seen it, and it may be something I should look into more. However I do have more than $1.25 million involved. Also for some reason I have just never fully trusted these sort of things. I've seen a few of these offerings before advertising $1.25 million or so in FDIC protection, but I just feel like there may be some fine print or some sort of "catch", so I've never felt like it was as good and ironclad as I'd necessarily want. But that may just be undue paranoia on my part. I don't know.

It's undue paranoia. The products have been around forever. They basically shuffle your money between different FDIC accounts to keep you under the $250k limit.

Ok, thank you.

If you're concerned about the FDIC limit, it's important to look at the bank list they use and account for other money you have at those banks. (You can sometimes ask them to exclude a bank / limit the money put there for that reason.) Fidelity's disclosure doc has a good explanation.

[technovelist]

I’m sure this has been discussed, but wanted to ask.

I’m think of moving my money from fidelity treasury money market to their cash account. Would this be prudent or paranoid? Would it even be helpful in the event of a default?

What's the cash account invested in? In other words, when it's sitting in cash, what is fidelity doing with the money?

The problem is that everything is connected. If the supposedly safest bonds in the world suddenly have a real risk of not being paid in a timely fashion, the whole system is fundamentally disrupted. Even just the threat of that sort of disruption could have serious and lasting consequences. It's all the more disappointing because it's a "self-inflicted" wound.

It's one of those scenarios, where the only safe place for cash is sadly under the mattress. If you put it in "cash" in a financial institution, it's been most likely invested in something. If you want your cash back, that something needs to be sold. If it's a treasury, there is no guarantee.

I'm in the camp of not worrying about it. There is nothing I can really do besides selling everything, getting actual cash, and hide it around my home. At that point I'm clearly entering the turf of doomsday preppers. I guess, I could also buy physical gold too.

Yes you could do that. And it's even on sale at the moment, supposedly due to "unexpectedly good US data".

[technovelist]

Does the prospectus for VUSXX state that it is 100% safe under any condition? I don't use MM funds except for brief settlement stays so I have to confess, that was the one fund whose prospectus I have not read.

I highly doubt it would say that, but what bothers me is that I don't really feel like there is any totally "safe" option for me in this bizarre scenario.

It bothers me too. But it's life. Feelings of security are mostly recency bias.

As W. C. Fields may have said, "The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive."

The whole thing about black swans is that, let's say there are a thousand of them, but each has only a probability of 1/1000th. Then there's a 60% chance you will actually get bitten by one of them, but you don't know which. And effective protection against any specific one costs you 1% of your net worth, so protecting against all of them is ten times your net worth.

What we tend to do is focus on one or two potential black swans that particularly horrify us, and and then fall for near-scams that claim to protect us against them--but have never been tested because they've never occurred the same way before.

Except if you can protect against quite a few of them, with no significant net cost on average.

[LadyGeek]

I removed an off-topic discussion regarding a black swan event. See: Non-actionable or Trolling Topics

If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include:

• US or world economic, political, tax, health care and climate policies
• conspiracy theories of any type
• discussions of the crimes, shortcomings or stupidity of other people, whether they be political figures, celebrities, CEOs, Fed chairmen, subprime mortgage borrowers, lottery winners, federal "bailout" recipients, poor people, rich people, etc. Of course, you are welcome to talk about the stupid financial things you have done.

[rockstar]

I’m sure this has been discussed, but wanted to ask.

I’m think of moving my money from fidelity treasury money market to their cash account. Would this be prudent or paranoid? Would it even be helpful in the event of a default?

What's the cash account invested in? In other words, when it's sitting in cash, what is fidelity doing with the money?

The problem is that everything is connected. If the supposedly safest bonds in the world suddenly have a real risk of not being paid in a timely fashion, the whole system is fundamentally disrupted. Even just the threat of that sort of disruption could have serious and lasting consequences. It's all the more disappointing because it's a "self-inflicted" wound.

It's one of those scenarios, where the only safe place for cash is sadly under the mattress. If you put it in "cash" in a financial institution, it's been most likely invested in something. If you want your cash back, that something needs to be sold. If it's a treasury, there is no guarantee.

I'm in the camp of not worrying about it. There is nothing I can really do besides selling everything, getting actual cash, and hide it around my home. At that point I'm clearly entering the turf of doomsday preppers. I guess, I could also buy physical gold too.

Yes you could do that. And it's even on sale at the moment, supposedly due to "unexpectedly good US data".

I’m not. But the panic selling could be driving gold prices down.

[PoorHomieQuan]

The purpose would not be to turn a profit. The purpose would be to avert a huge loss in a bad scenario where the US defaults and no quick solution is found.

I'm just saying "turn a profit" as in "come out ahead". As in, have more money/assets than you would if you did nothing.

That is not true. That is recency bias (unless you are Japanese, or maybe Russian these days...there are other examples as well). Even recently in the US, it took 17 years for the Nasdaq to regain its March 2000 high in real terms, and at the bottom it lost something like 80% of its value. The Dow finally got back to its 1929 peak in 1954 (in 1933 it was down 89%). Even if one truly believes that was the worst possible scenario that is a bit too long to wait to be rewarded for a 70 y o retiree such as myself (or almost anybody really).

I mean yes, you have to be reasonably diversified and have a long enough time frame for that statement to be true. I assume you are not overly concentrated in QQQ or one small country's stocks or need the money within 5 years.

[Kevin M]

I will say it again: I will be furious if I lose my money in VUSXX. I feel that I have been boxed into a corner and do not see a better option for me to store this money right now. If I actually lose money because of this, I will be completely furious.

Are you eligible for a Vanguard cash plus account? https://investor.vanguard.com/investmen ... nvestments

Wow, I didn't know about this. I see 4.5% APY currently. VUSXX still has higher TEY for me, at 5.34% assuming 60% USGO, and even the SEC yield alone is 4.94%. Still, the rate is better than Ally at 3.85%, so maybe a good place to stash a bit of cash until we get through this thing.

Oh, just one problem:

[Beensabu]

If payments are delayed, SS recipients are lucky that June 1 is a Thursday.

Only those who started taking SS before May 1997, and those on SSI.

There are 4 SS payment dates per month.

[smooth_rough]

This plays out the same every few years. [Political comments removed by moderator oldcomputerguy] It probably shouldn't change your AA.

[Kevin M]

If payments are delayed, SS recipients are lucky that June 1 is a Thursday.

Only those who started taking SS before May 1997, and those on SSI.

There are 4 SS payment dates per month.

My pay date is the 3rd, which is a Saturday next month. Previously, it would have been paid on Friday, the 2nd, but lately at Ally I've been getting it a few days early. Will be interesting to see if it's the 5/31, 6/1 or the following week. Fortunately for us, we are not in the group for which this matters much. My heart goes out to those who are. The anxiety must be awful if they even know this is happening.

[billaster]

If payments are delayed, SS recipients are lucky that June 1 is a Thursday.

Only those who started taking SS before May 1997, and those on SSI.

Those on SSI will be first and will be particularly hard hit by any delay as they are legally restricted on the amount of emergency assets they may have.

[rkhusky]

If payments are delayed, SS recipients are lucky that June 1 is a Thursday.

Only those who started taking SS before May 1997, and those on SSI.

There are 4 SS payment dates per month.

Actually, just the opposite. Those on SS after 1997 should see their check on the 14th. Perhaps there will be enough estimated tax payments, which are due on the 15th, to avoid any substantive delay.

[ehh]

If payments are delayed, SS recipients are lucky that June 1 is a Thursday.

Only those who started taking SS before May 1997, and those on SSI.

Those on SSI will be first and will be particularly hard hit by any delay as they are legally restricted on the amount of emergency assets they may have.

And Railroad Retirement Benefits are paid on the 1st of the month to about 500,000 beneficiaries. Don't know whether timely payment of Railroad Retirement Benefits is threatened...

[rkhusky]

If payments are delayed, SS recipients are lucky that June 1 is a Thursday.

Only those who started taking SS before May 1997, and those on SSI.

Those on SSI will be first and will be particularly hard hit by any delay as they are legally restricted on the amount of emergency assets they may have.

And Railroad Retirement Benefits are paid on the 1st of the month to about 500,000 beneficiaries. Don't know whether timely payment of Railroad Retirement Benefits is threatened...

I think all on government retirement get paid on the first too. Perhaps that is why June 1 is the current x-date.

[ehh]

Those on SS after 1997 should see their check on the 14th.

SS payment date for those enrolling after 1997 is the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th Wednesday of each month - depending on where their birthday falls during the month. In June of 2023, the 14th, 21st, and 28th. For example I was born late in the month, so my SS deposit date is the 4th Wednesday of each month. Reliable so far. We shall see . . .

[Bcdkgf]

I have Tbills maturing on June 1st and 6th. I am not worried and will reinvest for another 30 day Treasury. Folks are sounding like it's Y2K all over again. The only worry I have is the start of Hurricane season and making my hurricane supply list!

[Morik]

Series I-bonds and series EE-bonds are handled by the treasury, right?
Does anyone know if there is a risk of them suspending redemptions of these savings bonds?

[rkhusky]

Those on SS after 1997 should see their check on the 14th.

SS payment date for those enrolling after 1997 is the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th Wednesday of each month - depending on where their birthday falls during the month. In June of 2023, the 14th, 21st, and 28th. For example I was born late in the month, so my SS deposit date is the 4th Wednesday of each month. Reliable so far. We shall see . . .

Yes, I should have said 14th or later.

[Tooth]

Series I-bonds and series EE-bonds are handled by the treasury, right?
Does anyone know if there is a risk of them suspending redemptions of these savings bonds?

I can't find a sourced answer but I suspect that a default would delay redemptions of savings bonds. I'm wondering if the entire system will lock up, kind of like what happened to supply chains. That would delay redemptions even more. I guess this goes into the category of @#$& around, find out.

[nisiprius]

Series I-bonds and series EE-bonds are handled by the treasury, right?
Does anyone know if there is a risk of them suspending redemptions of these savings bonds?

Nobody seems to know whether it is a) legal, or b) even possible for the Treasury to prioritize which debts it pays.

[exodusNH]

Series I-bonds and series EE-bonds are handled by the treasury, right?
Does anyone know if there is a risk of them suspending redemptions of these savings bonds?

Nobody knows. They are debt like Treasury bills, notes, and bonds; redemption takes cash out of the Treasury. But they are special in the sense that one could only have accumulated so much due to purchase limitations and they're generally owned by individuals.

They might be happy to redeem EE Bonds early as it will save them the doubling.

If you have concerns, you should write your representatives in Congress.

[technovelist]

Those on SS after 1997 should see their check on the 14th.

SS payment date for those enrolling after 1997 is the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th Wednesday of each month - depending on where their birthday falls during the month. In June of 2023, the 14th, 21st, and 28th. For example I was born late in the month, so my SS deposit date is the 4th Wednesday of each month. Reliable so far. We shall see . . .

Yes, I should have said 14th or later.

I was born in the middle of the month and my wife was born in the first week of the month, and we both get it on the second Tuesday of every month. We both started after 1997.

[rkhusky]

Those on SS after 1997 should see their check on the 14th.

SS payment date for those enrolling after 1997 is the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th Wednesday of each month - depending on where their birthday falls during the month. In June of 2023, the 14th, 21st, and 28th. For example I was born late in the month, so my SS deposit date is the 4th Wednesday of each month. Reliable so far. We shall see . . .

Yes, I should have said 14th or later.

I was born in the middle of the month and my wife was born in the first week of the month, and we both get it on the second Tuesday of every month. We both started after 1997.

I guess the SS doesn’t always follow its stated schedule. I do note that some banks accelerate deposits by a day or two.

[ehh]

Those on SS after 1997 should see their check on the 14th.

SS payment date for those enrolling after 1997 is the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th Wednesday of each month - depending on where their birthday falls during the month. In June of 2023, the 14th, 21st, and 28th. For example I was born late in the month, so my SS deposit date is the 4th Wednesday of each month. Reliable so far. We shall see . . .

Yes, I should have said 14th or later.

I was born in the middle of the month and my wife was born in the first week of the month, and we both get it on the second Tuesday of every month. We both started after 1997.

I guess the SS doesn’t always follow its stated schedule. I do note that some banks accelerate deposits by a day or two.

Perhaps technovelist is drawing spousal benefits based on his wife's earnings record? https://www.aarp.org/retirement/social- ... edule.html

For most beneficiaries, the payment date depends on your birth date. If you are receiving payments on the record of a retired, disabled or deceased worker that person's birthday sets the schedule.

Access to the funds on Tuesday rather than Wednesday is your bank or credit union being a bit kind.

[000]

It is interesting that here we are 24 pages into FUD about a possible brief technical default caused by explicitly partisan political machinations, but numerous threads about predicted and observed inflation were aggressively locked over the past few years.

Actionable item from this observation: the fear in Treasuries is palpable. Maybe a buying opportunity....

[LadyGeek]

I removed an off-topic rant regarding congressional / presidential inaction. As a reminder, see: Politics and Religion

In order to avoid the inevitable frictions that arise from these topics, political or religious posts and comments are prohibited.

And: Non-actionable or Trolling Topics

If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include:

• US or world economic, political, tax, health care and climate policies
  ...

[jnw]

I redeemed $2500 in I-bonds today.. Wanted to have some cash at home before the first. Should hit my bank in a couple days. Just want to have enough here to handle the bills for a couple months.

[rockstar]

It is interesting that here we are 24 pages into FUD about a possible brief technical default caused by explicitly partisan political machinations, but numerous threads about predicted and observed inflation were aggressively locked over the past few years.

Actionable item from this observation: the fear in Treasuries is palpable. Maybe a buying opportunity....

It’s amazing how much fearmongering on the news can lead people to make poor financial decisions. This is really behavioral economics in action.

I agree with your observation. If you can get pass the fear, good yields are available.

[strummer6969]

It is interesting that here we are 24 pages into FUD about a possible brief technical default caused by explicitly partisan political machinations, but numerous threads about predicted and observed inflation were aggressively locked over the past few years.

Actionable item from this observation: the fear in Treasuries is palpable. Maybe a buying opportunity....

It’s amazing how much fearmongering on the news can lead people to make poor financial decisions. This is really behavioral economics in action.

I agree with your observation. If you can get pass the fear, good yields are available.

Despite all the fear mongering, it doesn't seem like too many people are actually acting on the fear. Stocks are holding up quite well. Bonds aren't doing too badly. I suspect many people are waiting to buy the dip?

[AlohaBill]

I’ve been overusing my magic 8 ball. It has really heated up. I better give it a rest. The end is near. Soon, the good ole boys will go back to their pads. Semi quiet may prevail for a few weeks or not. I’m putting off our annual Roth conversion until this too passes. My upcoming cataract surgery has my focus now.

[protagonist]

I will say it again: I will be furious if I lose my money in VUSXX. I feel that I have been boxed into a corner and do not see a better option for me to store this money right now. If I actually lose money because of this, I will be completely furious.

Are you eligible for a Vanguard cash plus account? https://investor.vanguard.com/investmen ... nvestments

Wow, I didn't know about this. I see 4.5% APY currently. VUSXX still has higher TEY for me, at 5.34% assuming 60% USGO, and even the SEC yield alone is 4.94%. Still, the rate is better than Ally at 3.85%, so maybe a good place to stash a bit of cash until we get through this thing.

Oh, just one problem:

I don't know what Vanguard offers, but Fidelity lets you keep your core position in what they call fCASH (like a bank account) , currently getting 2.75% interest (cf. 5.01% 7 day yield of FZDXX money market).
Today I switched my core position at Fidelity from money market to fCASH, and sold $5K of a roughly $20K position in FZDXX , to insure that I have liquidity to meet expenses in case of default. I will probably sell the rest of FZDXX on Tuesday if an agreement is not reached by then, to ride out the storm.

[PoorHomieQuan]

I strongly believe there will be a deal today or tomorrow. Walking backwards from the deadline of June 1, they need 1-2 days to write the bill and 3 days to read before voting. That makes the deal deadline today.

I did sell some MMF but only because it was a zero cost preventative measure.

[rockstar]

It is interesting that here we are 24 pages into FUD about a possible brief technical default caused by explicitly partisan political machinations, but numerous threads about predicted and observed inflation were aggressively locked over the past few years.

Actionable item from this observation: the fear in Treasuries is palpable. Maybe a buying opportunity....

It’s amazing how much fearmongering on the news can lead people to make poor financial decisions. This is really behavioral economics in action.

I agree with your observation. If you can get pass the fear, good yields are available.

Despite all the fear mongering, it doesn't seem like too many people are actually acting on the fear. Stocks are holding up quite well. Bonds aren't doing too badly. I suspect many people are waiting to buy the dip?

VOO is flat over the last five days. It’s been volatile. That’s it. Bond yields have gone up over the same time period. The only thing holding it up is all the companies saying AI. My TQQQ and QQQ positions have gone up a ton. My VOO position hasn’t moved nearly as much.

It’s really all about the bond market trying to figure out what the Fed will do since core looks sticky. The debt ceiling has been burying the inflation story. This will come back with the Fed meeting following the debt ceiling.

[strummer6969]

It is interesting that here we are 24 pages into FUD about a possible brief technical default caused by explicitly partisan political machinations, but numerous threads about predicted and observed inflation were aggressively locked over the past few years.

Actionable item from this observation: the fear in Treasuries is palpable. Maybe a buying opportunity....

It’s amazing how much fearmongering on the news can lead people to make poor financial decisions. This is really behavioral economics in action.

I agree with your observation. If you can get pass the fear, good yields are available.

Despite all the fear mongering, it doesn't seem like too many people are actually acting on the fear. Stocks are holding up quite well. Bonds aren't doing too badly. I suspect many people are waiting to buy the dip?

VOO is flat over the last five days. It’s been volatile. That’s it. Bond yields have gone up over the same time period. The only thing holding it up is all the companies saying AI. My TQQQ and QQQ positions have gone up a ton. My VOO position hasn’t moved nearly as much.

It’s really all about the bond market trying to figure out what the Fed will do since core looks sticky. The debt ceiling has been burying the inflation story. This will come back with the Fed meeting following the debt ceiling.

Old MacDonald had a farm, AI AI O. With a VOO VOO here and a VOO VOO there..

[Kevin M]

I noticed US stocks are up about 1.3% as of now, after several days of modest declines IIRC. Then I realized, "Oh yeah, I just read that Biden and McCarthy are close to a deal." Intermediate and long term bond ETFs are generally up nicely today, and shorter term are flat or slightly lower. This goes for nominals and TIPS.