Nvidia and AMD: Regret and Luck vs. Skill

[hicabob]

I hold a bit of AMD via Lisa buying XLNX. I've had NVDA for a couple decades from my pre index fund days and it's now too much of my portfolio and almost all cap gains. Sigh.
Lisa and Jensen are truly world class CEO's and both were chip designers which I expect had helped hugely.

[hppycamper]

At a seminar on creating an innovative culture back in early 2016, I heard Jensen speak. He shared then that an innovation idea (by a mathematician at NVIDIA!!) connected GPU to AI. He also shared his vision of optimizing GPU for AI, developing an SDK to make developing AI solutions using NVIDIA GPUs easy, and giving the SDK to developers for free. Then found this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhUvQiKec2U showcasing an example using the deep learning network powered by their chips. I was sold on his vision and got interested in buying shares of NVIDIA. It was around $10 per share at the time. Being a conservative investor, I didn't act on it, knowing the high risk of holding individual stocks. But I kept an eye on NVIDIA.

Fast forward to 2018, came across an article on AI startups. It said at the time, there were over 3000 AI startups and over 90% of them were using NVIDIA chips. At that point, I decided to invest my play money in AI via NVIDIA and bought at around $40 per share.

NVIDIA is the only stock I have bought. Today, I have almost 10X of my investment, all sitting in my Roth IRA. No regrets, only the lucky feeling

[mudd]

I know it's not very bogleheaded but AMD was the first stock I purchased in my Roth IRA...back in 2017. It has been a Godsend for me.
I am currently up over 500% in it and as long as Lisa Su is running the show I will not sell. It is my largest holding and is currently 22% of my total assets(not counting house).

[cmr79]

OP, you had a feeling that AMD and Nvidia would outperform the market in 2019, but had you bought, would you have sold in 11/2021 and then bought back in around 10/2022?

Hindsight is 20/20, but to beat the market you need to make multiple correct decisions without the assistance of hindsight, which is part of the reason why chance doesn't favor success when picking individual stocks. You seem to be having an emotional FOMO-type reaction, and emotional investing consistently favors making the wrong decisions!

[SlowMovingInvestor]

Here is something interesting about the ARKK innovation ETF

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... #xj4y7vzkg

Cathie Wood’s ARKK Dumped Nvidia Stock Before $560 Billion Surge

ARKK looks increasingly like a one hit wonder (Tesla).

[the_wiki]

Everyone acting like these stocks can’t go back down as fast as they go up.

[Rex66]

I take about 10% of my investments and “gamble”. I bought amd when it was low single digits but sold at like 50. It’s near impossible to guess both when to buy and when to sell. I don’t recommend doing it for more than 10%. Likely over time my 10% will under perform my index funds. It hasn’t so far but I know it’s not skill.

[alexbogle]

The ai craze is very over hyped. Yes, there is value there. But not to justify the current mania.

We were supposed to have driving cars by now right?

What has ai actually delivered on that's not a shallow air to inexperienced people? Not much!