[VTI/VTSAX continue their downward spiral]

[Billyboy]

At the rate VTI/VTSAX are moving downward, I feel they've got a good chance of continuing their downward spiral and it's anyone's guess if they will or will not regain their losses! Day after day, I find that my holdings of VTSAX has diminished more and more. I know this is what happens in a down market; however, due to my age (79) it's having a greater effect on me than in the past. Not a lot of time to make up the lower values. A result of the lack of an age based asset allocation.
Anyone with an opinion?

Title modified to remove all CAPs. Please remember forum protocol:

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Thanks. Moderator Pops1860

[RyeBourbon]

What is your question? And what action do you think you will take based on the responses?

[Johm221122]

If they will go back up and regain there losses is a given, only question is when.
My opinion is you should immediately reevaluate your portfolio/ plan to match your situation. You can't change the past

[sailaway]

What did you do last year when they were even lower?

[watchnerd]

At the rate VTI/VTSAX are moving downward, I feel they've got a good chance of continuing their downward spiral and it's anyone's guess if they will or will not regain their losses! Day after day, I find that my holdings of VTSAX has diminished more and more. I know this is what happens in a down market; however, due to my age (79) it's having a greater effect on me than in the past. Not a lot of time to make up the lower values. A result of the lack of an age based asset allocation.
Anyone with an opinion?

Sounds like your AA is too aggressive for your taste / age.

[nps]

It's up for the week and up YTD

[climber2020]

Your first post here was in March 2008.

You know exactly what to do.

[RyeBourbon]

It's up for the week and up YTD

I was going to post something to this effect but I wasn't sure if it was true.

[enad]

It sounds like your allocation to equities is too high for you. Either you reduce it and cut your losses or hold onto it and just wait

[subiej]

If you’re saying that you have a disproportionately large chunk in VTSAX, given your age, I’m sorry to hear of your predicament. It’s so hard, in a bull market, to forego performance in favor of principal protection, and I’m sure that doesn’t change as you get older. I am grateful for your post, though- it’s a good reminder for me that there is a reason this is recommended.

[nisiprius]

They're have moved downward. Are they mov-ing downward? Nobody knows. I don't like the word "spiral." To me a "spiral" implies a self-accelerating effect in which the downward movement itself causes more rapid downward movement.

We saw drops that were almost as deep, and much more rapid, in 2011 and 2020. Neither of them turned out to be a continuing downward "spiral," but while we were in them we didn't know. 2011 certainly rattled me, and I wasn't the only one. As for 2020, sure, Covid, but we didn't know how that would play out, either.



So am I saying this downturn is over and recovery is at hand, just like in 2011 and 2020? Absolutely not. The point I want to make is that a) no matter how strongly you feel about it at the time, no, you don't actually know; b) if you go back to 2007, we've seen three dips that started out as bad as this one, and one of them kept on going and two of them didn't; c) dips don't feel like percentages when you are in them, the memory of all kinds of pain fades, and I for one always think I'm prepared for the next dip and when we are in it, it always feels worse than I expected.

If you are have trouble staying the course, then it means you have too much of your money in stocks. Unfortunately, a downturn is not the best time to make an adjustment. I don't want to make any suggestion one way or the other because I don't want to take any responsibility.

You know the situation. All four things are possible. You could cut stocks and be annoyed when they recover, you could cut stocks and be relieved if they keep falling, you could stay the source and be happy when they recover, and you could stay the course and be unhappy when they don't. You have to balance how you would feel about those alternatives, and make a decision without knowing what the stock market will do.

[dbr]

Between 2001 and now you got a CAGR of 7.5%. Between 2011 and now you got a CAGR of 11.7%. From 2011 to 2020 a CAGR of 14%. Along the way you had to endure drawdowns of 51% in 2009, 37% in 2002, 25% in 2022, 21% in 2020, 15% in 2018 with rapid recoveries in between.

The total stock market was very good to investors that have held it over the last 2-3 decades and who retired in those times. You could have eschewed stocks and gotten a CAGR of 3.5% in total bond, better than inflation by a tad but not so good for a successful retirement.

This is not to suggest that volatility does not matter nor that stocks can have secular periods of poor returns. It does mean there is a balance between stocks and bonds and that investing is a risky long game.

[Billyboy]

I'll do what I've always done, stay the course and hope for the best. No plans to change anything

[goingup]

I'll do what I've always done, stay the course and hope for the best. No plans to change anything

That’s the course of action I would suggest.

I read a prior post of yours which said something to the effect that if your investments didn’t return to previous highs you’d feel like a failure as an investor. That seems terribly harsh. As a Total Market investor I feel the best I can do is accept the Market returns. Our portfolio is well off the 2021 highs but still has gains because we’ve been investing for 25 years. I imagine at age 79, your portfolio has had solid growth over your investing lifetime. Sounds as though you have plenty to take you and your spouse to the finish life. Why spend precious time fretting about inevitable market fluctuation?

[Northern Flicker]

I'll do what I've always done, stay the course and hope for the best. No plans to change anything

Then you also should know that the recent performance is not an indicator of whether it will rally from here or deteriorate further. They don't ring a bell at the end of a bear market.

[SmileyFace]

Will this become the new "Stock Market in Free Fall" thread?

[RyeBourbon]

Will this become the new "Stock Market in Free Fall" thread?

"Stock Market in downward spiral" I guess

[livesoft]

Since we aren't spring chickens anymore, we don't need our money to last as long anyways. So stock market movements really don't matter anymore.

[Cheez-It Guy]

Will this become the new "Stock Market in Free Fall" thread?

My thoughts also upon clicking.

[BitTooAggressive]

At the rate VTI/VTSAX are moving downward, I feel they've got a good chance of continuing their downward spiral and it's anyone's guess if they will or will not regain their losses! Day after day, I find that my holdings of VTSAX has diminished more and more. I know this is what happens in a down market; however, due to my age (79) it's having a greater effect on me than in the past. Not a lot of time to make up the lower values. A result of the lack of an age based asset allocation.
Anyone with an opinion?

Title modified to remove all CAPs. Please remember forum protocol:

- avoid posting in ALL CAPITAL LETTERS or otherwise using distracting formatting

Thanks. Moderator Pops1860

If you will not run out of money don’t sweat it…. Easier said than done I acknowledge.

[aristotelian]

Seems like more of a sideways spiral