Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

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riptide
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Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by riptide »

I have learned from my mistakes of the past, and have not touched my vanguard stocks since the market has been on a downturn for the last 2 years. I was able to re-invest to U.S. Treasuries (I series and treasury note too) when my old EE series bonds matured. I bought two 30 years I series bonds for each of my children. They mature in 2052. My question is I would like to move some of my equities to treasury bonds ( a much better place to have investments now!) I have watched the drop over the last years and taken no action. However, I am frustrated, thinking that money in total market and small cap could be invested in U.S. treasuries instead! I don't want to move anything while things are down like they are and take the loss. Am I stuck until the market rebounds in 2024 or whenver it does??
Brokerage account-100% stocks | VG total Market 55% | VG small cap value 20% | VG Reit index 25% | | TSP Account 75C/25S | C Fund75%, S25%, | | Bonds: U.S. Treasury 5 year Note, 1 year T Bill
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retired@50
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by retired@50 »

riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am I have learned from my mistakes of the past, and have not touched my vanguard stocks since the market has been on a downturn for the last 2 years.
Good for you. It's good to learn from mistakes. It shows real promise and personal development.
riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am ... Am I stuck until the market rebounds in 2024 or whenver it does??
Yes. Stay the course.

Switching to bonds is a change in asset allocation. What has changed (other than the share price of your stocks) to warrant such a change?

Regards,
If liberty means anything at all it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear. -George Orwell
pizzy
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by pizzy »

riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am I would like to move some of my equities to treasury bonds ( a much better place to have investments now!)
riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am I have learned from my mistakes of the past
You sure?
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Marseille07
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by Marseille07 »

riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am I have learned from my mistakes of the past, and have not touched my vanguard stocks since the market has been on a downturn for the last 2 years. I was able to re-invest to U.S. Treasuries (I series and treasury note too) when my old EE series bonds matured. I bought two 30 years I series bonds for each of my children. They mature in 2052. My question is I would like to move some of my equities to treasury bonds ( a much better place to have investments now!) I have watched the drop over the last years and taken no action. However, I am frustrated, thinking that money in total market and small cap could be invested in U.S. treasuries instead! I don't want to move anything while things are down like they are and take the loss. Am I stuck until the market rebounds in 2024 or whenver it does??
What kind of AA change are we talking about here? The problem isn't so much about T-notes being good investments, it is that you end up locking in losses on the equities side as you make the switch.
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Wiggums
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by Wiggums »

We are purchasing treasuries and equities with new money. We are “staying the course” with our existing portfolio. The market volatility will continue and I wonder if your AA is too aggressive for you.
"I started with nothing and I still have most of it left."
miket29
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by miket29 »

riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am I have learned from my mistakes of the past, and have not touched my vanguard stocks since the market has been on a downturn for the last 2 years. My question is I would like to move some of my equities to treasury bonds ( a much better place to have investments now!) I have watched the drop over the last years and taken no action. However, I am frustrated, thinking that money in total market and small cap could be invested in U.S. treasuries instead!
Sounds like you haven't really given up on market timing, just become slower to pull the trigger. If you wanted to hold more bonds to rebalance or because your Investment Policy Statement says that at your age you should that's one thing. But the way I read this you're predicting Treasuries will do better than the market over some unspecified period of time, even though apparently your past predictions didn't work out so well. How confident are you this time you're right, and how much are you willing to leave on the table if you're not?

Do you even have an IPS? See https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investm ... _statement If not, creating one before making any changes might be a good idea.
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riptide
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by riptide »

retired@50 wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:52 am
riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am I have learned from my mistakes of the past, and have not touched my vanguard stocks since the market has been on a downturn for the last 2 years.
Good for you. It's good to learn from mistakes. It shows real promise and personal development.
riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am ... Am I stuck until the market rebounds in 2024 or whenver it does??
Yes. Stay the course.

Switching to bonds is a change in asset allocation. What has changed (other than the share price of your stocks) to warrant such a change?

Regards,
Thank you!
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by Kookaburra »

riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am I have learned from my mistakes of the past, and have not touched my vanguard stocks since the market has been on a downturn for the last 2 years. I was able to re-invest to U.S. Treasuries (I series and treasury note too) when my old EE series bonds matured. I bought two 30 years I series bonds for each of my children. They mature in 2052. My question is I would like to move some of my equities to treasury bonds ( a much better place to have investments now!) I have watched the drop over the last years and taken no action. However, I am frustrated, thinking that money in total market and small cap could be invested in U.S. treasuries instead! I don't want to move anything while things are down like they are and take the loss. Am I stuck until the market rebounds in 2024 or whenver it does??
It sounds like you are learning that your AA is no longer correct for you. I have felt this at times, and what I do to adjust is figure out a new AA that I'm good with, keep existing equities as-is (don't sell low), and direct all new earnings into the now-underweighted fixed income class until I've reached my new AA. This might not be consistent with Boglehead recommendations, but it keeps me from reacting to my emotions and selling equities low.
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riptide
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by riptide »

Kookaburra wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:39 pm
riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am I have learned from my mistakes of the past, and have not touched my vanguard stocks since the market has been on a downturn for the last 2 years. I was able to re-invest to U.S. Treasuries (I series and treasury note too) when my old EE series bonds matured. I bought two 30 years I series bonds for each of my children. They mature in 2052. My question is I would like to move some of my equities to treasury bonds ( a much better place to have investments now!) I have watched the drop over the last years and taken no action. However, I am frustrated, thinking that money in total market and small cap could be invested in U.S. treasuries instead! I don't want to move anything while things are down like they are and take the loss. Am I stuck until the market rebounds in 2024 or whenver it does??
It sounds like you are learning that your AA is no longer correct for you. I have felt this at times, and what I do to adjust is figure out a new AA that I'm good with, keep existing equities as-is (don't sell low), and direct all new earnings into the now-underweighted fixed income class until I've reached my new AA. This might not be consistent with Boglehead recommendations, but it keeps me from reacting to my emotions and selling equities low.
No Sir, my AA is good for me. I just hate seeing the market continue to decline and I am losing money , while the U.S. treausuries are safe and gaining interest! It would not be so bad for me, except that I am going through a separation (taking forever) and this is why it is tough right now. I'm good with my allocation.
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riptide
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by riptide »

Wiggums wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:13 am We are purchasing treasuries and equities with new money. We are “staying the course” with our existing portfolio. The market volatility will continue and I wonder if your AA is too aggressive for you.
That's great, my AA is good for me. New Money?? from where?? I don't have new money to purchase treasuries.
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Tom_T
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by Tom_T »

riptide wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:53 pm
Wiggums wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:13 am We are purchasing treasuries and equities with new money. We are “staying the course” with our existing portfolio. The market volatility will continue and I wonder if your AA is too aggressive for you.
That's great, my AA is good for me. New Money?? from where?? I don't have new money to purchase treasuries.
Your allocation can't be good for you if you're thinking about selling stocks and buying bonds.
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by riptide »

Tom_T wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:59 pm
riptide wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:53 pm
Wiggums wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:13 am We are purchasing treasuries and equities with new money. We are “staying the course” with our existing portfolio. The market volatility will continue and I wonder if your AA is too aggressive for you.
That's great, my AA is good for me. New Money?? from where?? I don't have new money to purchase treasuries.
Your allocation can't be good for you if you're thinking about selling stocks and buying bonds.
I don't want any bonds, I want more treasuries. I'm disappointed with the stock market, but I have not moved or sold anything.
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by Tom_T »

riptide wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:11 pm
Tom_T wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:59 pm
riptide wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:53 pm
Wiggums wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:13 am We are purchasing treasuries and equities with new money. We are “staying the course” with our existing portfolio. The market volatility will continue and I wonder if your AA is too aggressive for you.
That's great, my AA is good for me. New Money?? from where?? I don't have new money to purchase treasuries.
Your allocation can't be good for you if you're thinking about selling stocks and buying bonds.
I don't want any bonds, I want more treasuries. I'm disappointed with the stock market, but I have not moved or sold anything.
Treasuries are bonds.
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riptide
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by riptide »

Tom_T wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:31 pm
riptide wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:11 pm
Tom_T wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:59 pm
riptide wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:53 pm
Wiggums wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:13 am We are purchasing treasuries and equities with new money. We are “staying the course” with our existing portfolio. The market volatility will continue and I wonder if your AA is too aggressive for you.
That's great, my AA is good for me. New Money?? from where?? I don't have new money to purchase treasuries.
Your allocation can't be good for you if you're thinking about selling stocks and buying bonds.
I don't want any bonds, I want more treasuries. I'm disappointed with the stock market, but I have not moved or sold anything.
Treasuries are bonds.
OK, my I bonds and treasury notes are much better off than the Bond Fund I used to hold.
Brokerage account-100% stocks | VG total Market 55% | VG small cap value 20% | VG Reit index 25% | | TSP Account 75C/25S | C Fund75%, S25%, | | Bonds: U.S. Treasury 5 year Note, 1 year T Bill
Tom_T
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by Tom_T »

riptide wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:49 pm
Tom_T wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:31 pm
riptide wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:11 pm
Tom_T wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:59 pm
riptide wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:53 pm

That's great, my AA is good for me. New Money?? from where?? I don't have new money to purchase treasuries.
Your allocation can't be good for you if you're thinking about selling stocks and buying bonds.
I don't want any bonds, I want more treasuries. I'm disappointed with the stock market, but I have not moved or sold anything.
Treasuries are bonds.
OK, my I bonds and treasury notes are much better off than the Bond Fund I used to hold.
I think this discussion is getting off track. If you are thinking about selling stocks to buy Treasuries, that is changing your allocation, by definition. The consensus here is to not do that.
HeelaMonster
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by HeelaMonster »

This response.....
riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 8:56 pm No Sir, my AA is good for me...... I I'm good with my allocation.
Is at odds with your desire to...
riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am My question is I would like to move some of my equities to treasury bonds ( a much better place to have investments now!) I have watched the drop over the last years and taken no action. However, I am frustrated, thinking that money in total market and small cap could be invested in U.S. treasuries instead!
Moving from equities to treasuries is, by definition, changing your allocation. That's what has people confused (and questioning the basis for such a move). :confused
gmthebeau
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by gmthebeau »

riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am I have learned from my mistakes of the past, and have not touched my vanguard stocks since the market has been on a downturn for the last 2 years. I was able to re-invest to U.S. Treasuries (I series and treasury note too) when my old EE series bonds matured. I bought two 30 years I series bonds for each of my children. They mature in 2052. My question is I would like to move some of my equities to treasury bonds ( a much better place to have investments now!) I have watched the drop over the last years and taken no action. However, I am frustrated, thinking that money in total market and small cap could be invested in U.S. treasuries instead! I don't want to move anything while things are down like they are and take the loss. Am I stuck until the market rebounds in 2024 or whenver it does??
You sound a bit like you are chasing performance. That said, stocks could easily drop another 20% from here so you should be prepared for that if you decide to stay the course. You should decide on asset allocation that makes you sleep at night and stick with it. If you run around chasing the best performing asset all the time you will likely harm your performance.
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by Doctor Rhythm »

riptide wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:49 pm
Tom_T wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:31 pm
riptide wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:11 pm
I don't want any bonds, I want more treasuries. I'm disappointed with the stock market, but I have not moved or sold anything.
Treasuries are bonds.
OK, my I bonds and treasury notes are much better off than the Bond Fund I used to hold.
I bonds are different, in that there is no secondary market for them. If I can buy a bond from you (whether it’s a US treasury or corporate junk bond), then its value can drop.

In any case, it’s fine if your desired asset allocation changes. Life events like job loss, windfalls, changes in family will do this and aren’t predictable. If your current equity allocation doesn’t feel right for you (after due consideration and soul searching), then you should change it. The fact that you are “disappointed” in the stock market because there was (and will be) a bear market, reinforces this. There are ways to do so that can minimize tax burden.
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Re: Want to sell equities to move to U.S. Treasury

Post by Robert20 »

riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 8:56 pm
Kookaburra wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:39 pm
riptide wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 9:40 am I have learned from my mistakes of the past, and have not touched my vanguard stocks since the market has been on a downturn for the last 2 years. I was able to re-invest to U.S. Treasuries (I series and treasury note too) when my old EE series bonds matured. I bought two 30 years I series bonds for each of my children. They mature in 2052. My question is I would like to move some of my equities to treasury bonds ( a much better place to have investments now!) I have watched the drop over the last years and taken no action. However, I am frustrated, thinking that money in total market and small cap could be invested in U.S. treasuries instead! I don't want to move anything while things are down like they are and take the loss. Am I stuck until the market rebounds in 2024 or whenver it does??
It sounds like you are learning that your AA is no longer correct for you. I have felt this at times, and what I do to adjust is figure out a new AA that I'm good with, keep existing equities as-is (don't sell low), and direct all new earnings into the now-underweighted fixed income class until I've reached my new AA. This might not be consistent with Boglehead recommendations, but it keeps me from reacting to my emotions and selling equities low.
No Sir, my AA is good for me. I just hate seeing the market continue to decline and I am losing money , while the U.S. treausuries are safe and gaining interest! It would not be so bad for me, except that I am going through a separation (taking forever) and this is why it is tough right now. I'm good with my allocation.
You are not losing the money (until u sell). Currently your portfolio is DOWN. Thats all. If your retirement far away and AA is good then why to change?!
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