Ark Funds

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ElJefeDelQueso
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by ElJefeDelQueso »

jpmorganfunds wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:47 pm
jpmorganfunds wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:28 pm Arvid Ali has some thoughts on Ark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2kgPBol_Rw
John Rubino has some thoughts on Ark too.

The everything bubble’s supernova is the ARK Innovation ETF, run by hitherto obscure (and now household name) Cathie Wood. Her “innovation”? She loaded up on Tesla stock right before it embarked on an epic (and inexplicable) 1000% run that made it more valuable than the ten biggest carmakers on the planet combined.

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/biggest- ... -hell-yes/
TSLA is 9.1% of ARKK and not held by ARKG and ARKF. Wood's ETFs do hold risky and volatile growth stocks but the TSLA explanation is simplistic.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by jarjarM »

ElJefeDelQueso wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:48 pm
jpmorganfunds wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:47 pm
jpmorganfunds wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:28 pm Arvid Ali has some thoughts on Ark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2kgPBol_Rw
John Rubino has some thoughts on Ark too.

The everything bubble’s supernova is the ARK Innovation ETF, run by hitherto obscure (and now household name) Cathie Wood. Her “innovation”? She loaded up on Tesla stock right before it embarked on an epic (and inexplicable) 1000% run that made it more valuable than the ten biggest carmakers on the planet combined.

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/biggest- ... -hell-yes/
TSLA is 9.1% of ARKK and not held by ARKG and ARKF. Wood's ETFs do hold risky and volatile growth stocks but the TSLA explanation is simplistic.
Yup, ARKG is driven by (partially) the inexplicable 1000% run of PACB :twisted:

I think Cathie Wood took some risk with her picks and in this risk-on investment world she got rewarded handsomely.
adave
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by adave »

Tesla- 800%

Teladoc- 980%

Square- 1300%

Roku- 1300%

Crispr- 500%

A few of her good calls. Who knows if she can keep it going with significant asset bloat. It’s worth a small position IMO just for kicks....
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by retire2022 »

CNBC's Scott Wapner ad Bob Pisani interviews Catherine Woods on Tesla, Crypto currency, Health and other tech discussions within Ark funds 11:40 minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8PkE6Yi2x0
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MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

retire2022 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 4:22 pm CNBC's Scott Wapner ad Bob Pisani interviews Catherine Woods on Tesla, Crypto currency, Health and other tech discussions within Ark funds 11:40 minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8PkE6Yi2x0
:thumbsup
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JHU ALmuni
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by JHU ALmuni »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:27 pm ARK has rebounded some after being down a few days in December.

YTD returns (9 days in)

ARK-K - 14.45%
ARK-G - 13.51%
ARK-Q - 12.48%
ARK-W - 8.90%
ARK-F - 4.53%

Other notables:
TSLA - 24.71%
QQQ - 1.69%
Bitcoin - 40.88%

Seems like ARK been performing well lately, tempted to move more of my fund there if this performance sustainable. Any thoughts?
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MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

JHU ALmuni wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 4:59 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:27 pm ARK has rebounded some after being down a few days in December.

YTD returns (9 days in)

ARK-K - 14.45%
ARK-G - 13.51%
ARK-Q - 12.48%
ARK-W - 8.90%
ARK-F - 4.53%

Other notables:
TSLA - 24.71%
QQQ - 1.69%
Bitcoin - 40.88%

Seems like ARK been performing well lately, tempted to move more of my fund there if this performance sustainable. Any thoughts?
ARK was killing me today!!
I was down a lot earlier, but it looked like some came back.
One of a few days where ARK's drops were more significant than SPY or QQQ.


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Re: Ark Funds

Post by xraygoggles »

Just curious if anyone in here that was thinking of buying it feels the same way now? It's discounted 30%! :twisted:
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MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

xraygoggles wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:38 pm Just curious if anyone in here that was thinking of buying it feels the same way now? It's discounted 30%! :twisted:
Yes. ARK has been taking big hits several times over these last few weeks.
I'm being patient and will keep holding and will re-evaluate after a year.
Index ETF's 45% |ARK Funds 30% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 4% | GOOGL 2% | AMZN 1.3% |Other stocks 4.5% | BTC/ETH 9% |
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Stanczyk
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Is it time to jump the ARK?

Post by Stanczyk »

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

I think the title is self-explanatory here. But, here are some of my additional thoughts:

Why jump the ARK:
- Virtually all ARK funds had an awesome 2020. As such, it is reasonable to wonder about regression to the mean.
- Inflation may rear its ugly head and high-flying tech stocks will get clobbered. (TSM or Industrials may be a better place to be)
- If you caught the ride on the ark in 2020, why not take profit.

Why stay on the ARK:
- The more we trade, the more likely it is that we can make mistakes
- Perhaps C. Wood is the star that will continue shining
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Re: Is it time to jump the ARK?

Post by watchnerd »

I don't hold ARKK.

But if I did, I'd think of it two ways:

1. Get out now

OR

2. Hold for 10 years

I don't see a lot of middle ground, as a lot of the trend-betting she's doing will take quite some time to fully pan out.
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Astones
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Re: Is it time to jump the ARK?

Post by Astones »

A good exercise could be the following.

Try to answer this question: "Could you be able to provide good reasons to buy ARK now, without ever mentioning its past performance ?" .

If the answer is "No", then sell.
If the answer is "Yes", then hold, or even buy more.

Too often, by digging a little, it comes out that the mein reason for people to hold/buy securities is that their price has gone up. When this is the case, that security should be avoided.
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Re: Is it time to jump the ARK?

Post by Williams57 »

ARK* funds are my funny money. I'm holding, with the realization that I may lose it all. The downside is it's in my Roth, so I won't be able to tax loss harvest.
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Re: Is it time to jump the ARK?

Post by MotoTrojan »

Astones wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 2:15 pm A good exercise could be the following.

Try to answer this question: "Could you be able to provide good reasons to buy ARK now, without ever mentioning its past performance ?" .

If the answer is "No", then sell.
If the answer is "Yes", then hold, or even buy more.

Too often, by digging a little, it comes out that the mein reason for people to hold/buy securities is that their price has gone up. When this is the case, that security should be avoided.
But tech is going to keep growing! It is the future!!!



/s


Ya, that is why it is priced at 100x sales.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged Stanczyk's question into the original (similar) discussion.
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Re: Is it time to jump the ARK?

Post by drk »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 2:12 pm I don't see a lot of middle ground, as a lot of the trend-betting she's doing will take quite some time to fully pan out.
Trend-betting and trend-hopping, e.g., buying a bunch of TWTR today because it dropped. It's an OK product, but I have a hard time squaring it as a disruptive technology. Decisions like that are why I wouldn't trust the fund long-term.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by Forester »

All the "day trading" within these funds; how can this inspire confidence? It's erratic and ad hoc. I'm keeping an eye on ARKK fund flows which have flattened and rolled over, positive $3.5bn last 3months, positive $572m last month but now negative $387m for the last week. ARKK is on course to lose approx $2bn funds over the next month, around 10% of AUM, now we've had a period of growth stocks rebounding, if the situation reverts back to the reflation trade then ARKK's portfolio might come under pressure.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by txhill »

Forester wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 4:46 am All the "day trading" within these funds; how can this inspire confidence? It's erratic and ad hoc. I'm keeping an eye on ARKK fund flows which have flattened and rolled over, positive $3.5bn last 3months, positive $572m last month but now negative $387m for the last week. ARKK is on course to lose approx $2bn funds over the next month, around 10% of AUM, now we've had a period of growth stocks rebounding, if the situation reverts back to the reflation trade then ARKK's portfolio might come under pressure.
It seems to me this is symptomatic of being an ETF instead of an investment entity that can just buy and hold and sit tight. I think they just have to rebalance constantly even if they aren't changing their investment outlook on a daily basis. Seems like they'd be more attractive if they were set up in a different way, but what do i know.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by Forester »

At the current pace of fund outflows ARKK will cease to exist in 31 weeks time.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by thenextguy »

Forester wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 4:46 am All the "day trading" within these funds; how can this inspire confidence? It's erratic and ad hoc. I'm keeping an eye on ARKK fund flows which have flattened and rolled over, positive $3.5bn last 3months, positive $572m last month but now negative $387m for the last week. ARKK is on course to lose approx $2bn funds over the next month, around 10% of AUM, now we've had a period of growth stocks rebounding, if the situation reverts back to the reflation trade then ARKK's portfolio might come under pressure.
I don’t think this trading is unusual for a fund. We’re just seeing it because ARK runs active ETFs and they’re required to release their positions daily. Mutual funds don’t have to do that.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by rich126 »

I took a look at Ark funds and was briefly in one but came to the conclusion I was too late to this fad and it doesn't fit in with most of my other investments. Besides Ark funds there are similar ETFs like WCLD (down 25% from its high).

Right now watching the investment world is like watching some crazy comedy show. Some "new" investment comes along, it gets mentioned on social media, everyone flocks to it and it goes vertical. There is no real reason for many of these "investments" to do that well.

Off the top of my head we have:
1. Cryptocurrencies (hot ones seem to change quickly)
2. Cloud techie stocks
3. Sports cards (the rating service for baseball cards had a 1 year backlog)
4. NFTs
5. Tesla
6. ? (I'm having a sluggish morning but the last list I saw had a bunch more)

I'm usually too slow to catch onto these "investments" since they usually don't make sense to me. I prefer to invest in things that actually make money and have positive cash flow. By the time I think "maybe I should try it", it is too late and the party is over.

At this point you can either decide "this is a correction and a great buying opportunity" or "a bunch of over valued stocks are finally coming to their day of reckoning". I usually go with the latter because I watched this in the late 90s and that has left a lingering impression on me.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by Forester »

Now that ARKK is below the key technical level of 110 next stop is 90, fairly quickly.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by Astones »

Forester wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 10:28 am Now that ARKK is below the key technical level of 110 next stop is 90, fairly quickly.
For a moment I thought about buying put options expiring next year, then I told myself nah.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by surfstar »

Forester wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 10:28 am Now that ARKK is below the key technical level of 110 next stop is 90, fairly quickly.
So, one could say: The Ark is sinking?
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by abuss368 »

surfstar wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 10:46 am
Forester wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 10:28 am Now that ARKK is below the key technical level of 110 next stop is 90, fairly quickly.
So, one could say: The Ark is sinking?
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Re: Is it time to jump the ARK?

Post by Portfolio7 »

drk wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 7:56 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 2:12 pm I don't see a lot of middle ground, as a lot of the trend-betting she's doing will take quite some time to fully pan out.
Trend-betting and trend-hopping, e.g., buying a bunch of TWTR today because it dropped. It's an OK product, but I have a hard time squaring it as a disruptive technology. Decisions like that are why I wouldn't trust the fund long-term.
I am curious what Twitter they will do with Scroll. I think that could very well be a disruptive technology in media delivery, though of course they need to handle it right.

Anyways, more generally, I'm not selling ARK (I own tiny slices of ARKK & ARKG). Something like this you have to be ready to lose every penny you spend on it, or you shouldn't be in it.
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Re: Is it time to jump the ARK?

Post by Williams57 »

Portfolio7 wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 12:44 pm
drk wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 7:56 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 2:12 pm I don't see a lot of middle ground, as a lot of the trend-betting she's doing will take quite some time to fully pan out.
Trend-betting and trend-hopping, e.g., buying a bunch of TWTR today because it dropped. It's an OK product, but I have a hard time squaring it as a disruptive technology. Decisions like that are why I wouldn't trust the fund long-term.
I am curious what Twitter they will do with Scroll. I think that could very well be a disruptive technology in media delivery, though of course they need to handle it right.

Anyways, more generally, I'm not selling ARK (I own tiny slices of ARKK & ARKG). Something like this you have to be ready to lose every penny you spend on it, or you shouldn't be in it.
Agree. 1.6% of my NW is in ARK funds, and I got in recently. I accept that it can all go to zero, just like my small crypto balance. But hopefully it won't. Curious how low ARK's will go though. Hopefully not lower than another 20%.

I don't believe I would have gotten in were it not for the pandemic. Life's too boring and I need some roller coaster excitement (thank god, I know it's a privilege). Figured ARKs are better than GME.
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Re: Is it time to jump the ARK?

Post by drk »

Portfolio7 wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 12:44 pm I am curious what Twitter they will do with Scroll. I think that could very well be a disruptive technology in media delivery, though of course they need to handle it right.
I believe the Scroll acquisition was announced on Tuesday, after ARKK doubled down. Unless the team had access to inside information, I don't think that factored into the model. That said, maybe it works out, or maybe it's another Vine or Periscope.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by thomasbayarea »

At $40 I wonder if ARKK is a good buy?
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by whodidntante »

I am a HUGE fan of ARKK. Cathie Wood has basically shorted some of the best research that exists on asset pricing and returns drivers. And she built a name for herself and got paid obscene amounts for doing it. But I think I might give her too much credit by assuming she is aware of the research.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by thomasbayarea »

whodidntante wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:17 pm I am a HUGE fan of ARKK. Cathie Wood has basically shorted some of the best research that exists on asset pricing and returns drivers. And she built a name for herself and got paid obscene amounts for doing it. But I think I might give her too much credit by assuming she is aware of the research.
Somehow I cannot make out if you are being sarcastic :confused
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by whodidntante »

thomasbayarea wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:21 pm
whodidntante wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:17 pm I am a HUGE fan of ARKK. Cathie Wood has basically shorted some of the best research that exists on asset pricing and returns drivers. And she built a name for herself and got paid obscene amounts for doing it. But I think I might give her too much credit by assuming she is aware of the research.
Somehow I cannot make out if you are being sarcastic :confused
It's Fed day, so I was practicing my Fed speak. :happy

She does invest contrary to what the research suggests though. That part was sincere.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by Valuethinker »

rich126 wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 10:06 am I took a look at Ark funds and was briefly in one but came to the conclusion I was too late to this fad and it doesn't fit in with most of my other investments. Besides Ark funds there are similar ETFs like WCLD (down 25% from its high).

Right now watching the investment world is like watching some crazy comedy show. Some "new" investment comes along, it gets mentioned on social media, everyone flocks to it and it goes vertical. There is no real reason for many of these "investments" to do that well.

Off the top of my head we have:
1. Cryptocurrencies (hot ones seem to change quickly)
2. Cloud techie stocks
3. Sports cards (the rating service for baseball cards had a 1 year backlog)
4. NFTs
5. Tesla
6. ? (I'm having a sluggish morning but the last list I saw had a bunch more)

I'm usually too slow to catch onto these "investments" since they usually don't make sense to me. I prefer to invest in things that actually make money and have positive cash flow. By the time I think "maybe I should try it", it is too late and the party is over.

At this point you can either decide "this is a correction and a great buying opportunity" or "a bunch of over valued stocks are finally coming to their day of reckoning". I usually go with the latter because I watched this in the late 90s and that has left a lingering impression on me.
I am not sure the name for it but the Robinhood/ Reddit stocks like Gamestop? One of the cinema companies?

Stocks where the individual investors reckon they can beat up on the professionals. And GME they pulled it off and caused massive losses to hedge funds, I believe. However AFAIK since then they have not done well. The opportunities for a bulletin board created "short squeeze" are few and far between, And the opportunities for stock manipulation by the unscrupulous are legion in such situations.

It's a fad. The reasons why the market is the way it is are good ones - big institutional investors, increasingly indexed, whales like Blackrock & Vanguard running passive products, hyperactive hedge funds, flash traders etc.

NFTs I took as a kind of practical joke that took off. We are not allowed to discuss crypto here.

Tesla was to confuse a great car (ish) & a great company (ish) with a sensible level of stock valuation. But Musk has defied all my expectations - he's becoming a sort of Jeff Bezos figure in remaking a whole industry.

Robinhood the business model of directing client business to earn payments (for Robinhood) gives me a bitter taste in my mouth. In other industries, I think that would be seen as too much conflict of interest. In stocks, I can imagine the other side of that bargain (the Flash traders?) taking a real piece out of RH's clients. But I have not thought about this in any detail.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by gtrplayer »

thomasbayarea wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:10 pm At $40 I wonder if ARKK is a good buy?
You’d think any fund that drops that much must be a good buy eventually but since it’s an active fund, she could still trade her way to $0.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by thomasbayarea »

I do not advocate active funds and keep 98% of my dollars in vanguard index funds.

I just feel that now that the hype is dead, ARKK is a good buy. When the market turns, and it will, maybe in 6 months or 6 years, ARKK will do very very well.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by rich126 »

Might not be the best thread to post this but in my ~4 decades of investing I'm generally right about things but I'm often wrong about how long fads or exuberance can last. I know many here hide behind the "you can't time [insert whatever you want here]" but while you can't get the exact time you can definitely know things are terribly over/under priced.

For example back in ~2008 when housing was going crazy in areas like Arizona. That was obvious to me. I didn't do anything about it prior to the crash and didn't capitalize on it when prices fell to ridiculous low levels despite opportunities. I just don't like to go all in on investments and in this case because I'm not a real estate expert.

Back in 2000 it was obvious the internet stocks were nothing but speculation. Most never even had profits. I didn't buy much of them and didn't go short or capitalize on the inevitable drop.

Obviously 2020 was the result of free money from the fed and the government. Many people getting covid money improperly, others taking advantage of extremely low interest rates (must feel great to have a 2% mortgage right now unless you bought it at a terribly high price). This year we are seeing what happens when interest rates rise to more appropriate levels (and as always will over correct to a too high level).

Going forward housing will continue to slow and drop. Not sure how much but definitely has to drop, especially as people will inevitably lose jobs since fields like real estate, loans, mortgage brokers, etc. are seeing business drop (who wants to refinance now?).

The question is how to make money off this without taking excessive risks. I certainly hate looking at my investments since I hope to retire shortly but fortunately I had a lot of cash which now is moving into treasuries. I think once rates get to a certain level I will start buying some longer term CDs or bonds to cover my retirement since the rates will level off and drop.

You never know these things for certain but life isn't a 100% or 0% thing in most decisions. You just want to push the odds more in your favor which helps in your finances. Sticking with bonds when you know rates are going up is just foolish and not much different from people buying ARK funds at high levels or growth stocks with no real profits. If you are going to buy stuff buy something like Google, Berkshire, etc. They have real profits and will be around post recession (or whatever we are currently in) and will recover. Or worst case stick with stocks but when you buy the market you are buying a lot of trash as well.

I do find it entertaining to see the numerous posts on I-bonds just because rates are now high. If you expect another 3+ years of bad inflation that is ok but if going forward you eschew stocks or other investments, you might be doing the old "buy high, sell low" thing especially if you aren't retiring for a while.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by nisiprius »

Whenever something tanks, there are two competing interpretations that are possible, and slogans to match.

1) It's tanking. Don't try to catch a falling knife. Cut your losses and let your profits run. The trend is your friend.

2) It's cheap. It's on sale. Whatever the future, it now must logically have a higher expected return than it did a while ago. Buy low, sell high. It will experience mean reversion.

There's no way to decide which is right, particularly when the judgement is being based mostly on startling price movements and not much more.

If a fund lost worse than -68% when the stock market was only losing -51%, would you be tempted by the buying opportunity?

The Legg Mason Value Trust did just that. when it was being managed by Bill Miller. It beat the S&P 500 in 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005. But in 2006 it lost to the S&P 500 and experienced a total drawdown deeper -68%, when an S&P 500 index fund only lost -51%.

If you had invested in 1991, you would have been ahead of the S&P 500 for fifteen years, but by March of 2009 you would have lost all the outperformance and would not have beaten the S&P 500. If you continued to hold, you would today be behind the S&P 500. And anybody who invested within the time period 1992-2005 would have done much worse than that. Starting from the low point of the plunge in March of 2009, from then until now, has underperformed the S&P 500.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

nisiprius wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:12 am Whenever something tanks, there are two competing interpretations that are possible, and slogans to match.

1) It's tanking. Don't try to catch a falling knife. Cut your losses and let your profits run. The trend is your friend.

2) It's cheap. It's on sale. Whatever the future, it now must logically have a higher expected return than it did a while ago. Buy low, sell high. It will experience mean reversion.

There's no way to decide which is right, particularly when the judgement is being based mostly on startling price movements and not much more.
People who've invested in ARKK since its inception could have done worse:

Image
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.
strummer6969
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by strummer6969 »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:32 am
nisiprius wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:12 am Whenever something tanks, there are two competing interpretations that are possible, and slogans to match.

1) It's tanking. Don't try to catch a falling knife. Cut your losses and let your profits run. The trend is your friend.

2) It's cheap. It's on sale. Whatever the future, it now must logically have a higher expected return than it did a while ago. Buy low, sell high. It will experience mean reversion.

There's no way to decide which is right, particularly when the judgement is being based mostly on startling price movements and not much more.
People who've invested in ARKK since its inception could have done worse:

Image
Only that you're paying them 75 basis points for the privilege of underperforming compared to broad index funds. I know she says the fund should be held for 5 years but I don't have that kind of conviction in any fund manager. Everything that ARKK is invested in is already in VTI which I own.
Last edited by strummer6969 on Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

strummer6969 wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:36 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:32 am
nisiprius wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:12 am Whenever something tanks, there are two competing interpretations that are possible, and slogans to match.

1) It's tanking. Don't try to catch a falling knife. Cut your losses and let your profits run. The trend is your friend.

2) It's cheap. It's on sale. Whatever the future, it now must logically have a higher expected return than it did a while ago. Buy low, sell high. It will experience mean reversion.

There's no way to decide which is right, particularly when the judgement is being based mostly on startling price movements and not much more.
People who've invested in ARKK since its inception could have done worse:

Image
Only that you're paying them 75 basis points for the privilege of underperforming compared to broad index funds.
It didn't underperform compared to the broad index fund above, apparently even net of fees. (M* performance data is net of fees, as my understanding. Open to correction.)

(I don't hold ARKK.)
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.
strummer6969
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by strummer6969 »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:40 am
strummer6969 wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:36 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:32 am
nisiprius wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:12 am Whenever something tanks, there are two competing interpretations that are possible, and slogans to match.

1) It's tanking. Don't try to catch a falling knife. Cut your losses and let your profits run. The trend is your friend.

2) It's cheap. It's on sale. Whatever the future, it now must logically have a higher expected return than it did a while ago. Buy low, sell high. It will experience mean reversion.

There's no way to decide which is right, particularly when the judgement is being based mostly on startling price movements and not much more.
People who've invested in ARKK since its inception could have done worse:

Image
Only that you're paying them 75 basis points for the privilege of underperforming compared to broad index funds.
It didn't underperform compared to the broad index fund above, apparently even net of fees. (M* performance data is net of fees, as my understanding. Open to correction.)

(I don't hold ARKK.)
Why would you use an international benchmark to compare the performance of an actively managed US fund? I've never seen that before. They're completely different asset classes.
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prudent
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by prudent »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:32 am
People who've invested in ARKK since its inception could have done worse:

Image
The thing is, there is maybe a comparative handful of people who were investing in ARKK at its inception. How many people had even heard of that tiny fund at the start, with less than $200 million under management? Who could have imagined that huge bet on Tesla would have paid off so handsomely, and been clever enough to buy in to ARKK? Today the price is right about where it was in December 2017, when the buzz started. I wouldn't be surprised if the vast majority of holders are in the red, given that in December 2017 the fund was only 20% as large as it is today, and anyone who bought in after December 2017 has lost money if they are still holding.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by tsohg »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:32 am
nisiprius wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:12 am Whenever something tanks, there are two competing interpretations that are possible, and slogans to match.

1) It's tanking. Don't try to catch a falling knife. Cut your losses and let your profits run. The trend is your friend.

2) It's cheap. It's on sale. Whatever the future, it now must logically have a higher expected return than it did a while ago. Buy low, sell high. It will experience mean reversion.

There's no way to decide which is right, particularly when the judgement is being based mostly on startling price movements and not much more.
People who've invested in ARKK since its inception could have done worse:

Image
And how many people invested in ARKK since its inception? Really this is such a ridiculous argument. Just look at fund inflows and outflows. Most of the money jumped in around the peak and now the rats are fleeing the sinking ship at what may be the bottom. Fear/greed causes people to buy high and sell low.

Best of luck to anyone investing in this thing.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Why would you use an international benchmark to compare the performance of an actively managed US fund? I've never seen that before. They're completely different asset classes.
Strummer:

A very good question.

Taylor
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by tsohg »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:40 am
strummer6969 wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:36 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:32 am
nisiprius wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:12 am Whenever something tanks, there are two competing interpretations that are possible, and slogans to match.

1) It's tanking. Don't try to catch a falling knife. Cut your losses and let your profits run. The trend is your friend.

2) It's cheap. It's on sale. Whatever the future, it now must logically have a higher expected return than it did a while ago. Buy low, sell high. It will experience mean reversion.

There's no way to decide which is right, particularly when the judgement is being based mostly on startling price movements and not much more.
People who've invested in ARKK since its inception could have done worse:

Image
Only that you're paying them 75 basis points for the privilege of underperforming compared to broad index funds.
It didn't underperform compared to the broad index fund above, apparently even net of fees. (M* performance data is net of fees, as my understanding. Open to correction.)

(I don't hold ARKK.)
Benchmarking against a broad index fund is ludicrous as well. If someone is deciding to invest in ARKK and the reasoning is based on how it performed compared to a broad index fund, they should immediately call a financial advisor and stop trying to manage themselves. (I understand you aren’t necessarily advocating for that benchmark comparison but this thread is insane)
AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:03 am
Why would you use an international benchmark to compare the performance of an actively managed US fund? I've never seen that before. They're completely different asset classes.
Strummer:

A very good question.

Taylor
Simply stating that portfolio dollars invested in ARKK have done better than the dollars invested in VTIAX. Here's performance compared to domestic equities broad market as well:

Image
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by abuss368 »

xraygoggles wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:38 pm Just curious if anyone in here that was thinking of buying it feels the same way now? It's discounted 30%! :twisted:
Not at all. I continue to buy Vanguard total market index funds. Those are the funds I want to own in all market environments. When things are on sale, like now, I am getting even more shares for our money.

Over time, that is a winning proposition.

Best.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by abuss368 »

strummer6969 wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:46 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:40 am
strummer6969 wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:36 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:32 am
nisiprius wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:12 am Whenever something tanks, there are two competing interpretations that are possible, and slogans to match.

1) It's tanking. Don't try to catch a falling knife. Cut your losses and let your profits run. The trend is your friend.

2) It's cheap. It's on sale. Whatever the future, it now must logically have a higher expected return than it did a while ago. Buy low, sell high. It will experience mean reversion.

There's no way to decide which is right, particularly when the judgement is being based mostly on startling price movements and not much more.
People who've invested in ARKK since its inception could have done worse:

Image
Only that you're paying them 75 basis points for the privilege of underperforming compared to broad index funds.
It didn't underperform compared to the broad index fund above, apparently even net of fees. (M* performance data is net of fees, as my understanding. Open to correction.)

(I don't hold ARKK.)
Why would you use an international benchmark to compare the performance of an actively managed US fund? I've never seen that before. They're completely different asset classes.
How does the Ark Fund compare performance wise, for a given level of risk assumed, to Vanguard Total Stock Market?

Best.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Ark Funds

Post by afan »

nisiprius wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:12 am Whenever something tanks, there are two competing interpretations that are possible, and slogans to match.

1) It's tanking. Don't try to catch a falling knife. Cut your losses and let your profits run. The trend is your friend.

2) It's cheap. It's on sale. Whatever the future, it now must logically have a higher expected return than it did a while ago. Buy low, sell high. It will experience mean reversion.

There's no way to decide which is right, particularly when the judgement is being based mostly on startling price movements and not much more.

If a fund lost worse than -68% when the stock market was only losing -51%, would you be tempted by the buying opportunity?

The Legg Mason Value Trust did just that. when it was being managed by Bill Miller. It beat the S&P 500 in 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005. But in 2006 it lost to the S&P 500 and experienced a total drawdown deeper -68%, when an S&P 500 index fund only lost -51%.

If you had invested in 1991, you would have been ahead of the S&P 500 for fifteen years, but by March of 2009 you would have lost all the outperformance and would not have beaten the S&P 500. If you continued to hold, you would today be behind the S&P 500. And anybody who invested within the time period 1992-2005 would have done much worse than that. Starting from the low point of the plunge in March of 2009, from then until now, has underperformed the S&P 500.
And the punch line: Miller became vastly wealthy by trailing the index for a career.
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We don't know how to beat the market on a risk-adjusted basis, and we don't know anyone that does know either | --Swedroe | We assume that markets are efficient, that prices are right | --Fama
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