Let's play chess

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Marseille07
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

halfnine wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 9:43 am Our justice system also reserves the right to try a child as an adult. Depending on how trivial or not so trivial Niemann's cheating was will likely dictate how severely he is treated. If it turns out he is misdirecting people about the extent of his cheating as now a nineteen year old it will likely indicate he has never learned his lesson. Ultimately, now as an adult, he will have to take accountability for that. But, none of us know until he releases the data. If there was nothing to see he likely would have released it already. However, he could be seeking legal advice or waiting until the end of the tournament. Both would certainly be reasonable as well.

As to Chess.com, well once Niemann discussed them in his interview they had little choice but to make a corporate response. They have a brand image to protect.

And if Carlsen was targeting cheating he has been anything but ineffective. At the end of this changes will be made.
Niemann discussed them in his interview because Carlsen & chess.com uninvited Niemann from some online tournament.

This is totally a cheap shot; I don't necessarily think Carlsen is trying to distract Niemann, but the end result is exactly that. Very unsportsmanlike conduct I must say. Carlsen can withdraw from the Sinquefield but he should not distract Niemann who is still in the tournament.
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Marseille07
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

Chief Arbiter says no cheating: https://twitter.com/GrandChessTour/stat ... 0515920897

It's rather obvious. People like Danya kept talking how OTB cheating is "possible," but they fail to discuss why they think Niemann cheated vs Carlsen.

If Niemann were making one godly move after another and beat Magnus, that's different. But the game in question wasn't a high-quality game as far as I understood.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by canadianbacon »

This is just endless strawmen from you. Danya, Hikaru, etc. did not accuse Niemann of cheating against Carlsen. Even Carlsen has not accused Niemann of cheating against Carlsen. It's not worth engaging with you any further on this. The truth will eventually come out one way or the other.

Somebody smarter than me can maybe assess whether there are holes here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG9XeSPflrU&t=6s (video is a Ukrainian FM analyzing critical games in tournaments when Niemann was pursuing his GM norms)

We are early days in this.
Last edited by canadianbacon on Sun Sep 11, 2022 7:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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halfnine
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by halfnine »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:28 pm Chief Arbiter says no cheating: https://twitter.com/GrandChessTour/stat ... 0515920897

It's rather obvious. People like Danya kept talking how OTB cheating is "possible," but they fail to discuss why they think Niemann cheated vs Carlsen.

If Niemann were making one godly move after another and beat Magnus, that's different. But the game in question wasn't a high-quality game as far as I understood.
The Chief Arbiter did not say "no cheating". The Chess Arbiter said there is currently "no indication that any player has been playing unfairly". So the question then becomes what does playing unfairly mean. It typically means (a) player was caught red-handed and/or (b) probability analysis has determined a 99.x % probability that a player cheater. If, for instance, a player is deemed to be 95% likely to have cheated no violation will have occurred. And, like I mentioned previously, this is one of the inherent problems with how chess is run. People, likely yourself, are using this as an example of proof of innocence (no cheating) which it is not. Chess is pretending via clever marketing that they have a handle on cheating and cheating is futile as it will be caught. However, one could make an argument based on probability anaylsis that cheaters can get away with it far more often than not.

So, we do not know the statistical probability cheating actually occurred. Nor will this information be released. Although, I have heard (unofficially) that nothing put Niemann near the levels of others who have been busted.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

canadianbacon wrote: Sun Sep 11, 2022 5:38 am This is just endless strawmen from you. Danya, Hikaru, etc. did not accuse Niemann of cheating against Carlsen. Even Carlsen has not accused Niemann of cheating against Carlsen. It's not worth engaging with you any further on this. The truth will eventually come out one way or the other.

Somebody smarter than me can maybe assess whether there are holes here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG9XeSPflrU&t=6s (video is a Ukrainian FM analyzing critical games in tournaments when Niemann was pursuing his GM norms)

We are early days in this.
You weren't really engaging with me in the first place so I don't understand your statement here.

Also, while no one literally said Niemann was cheating, plenty of GMs (including Magnus) & streamers implied he was and you know that. It's disingenuous to suddenly only accept literals and call everything else strawman when you know darn well everyone is talking about the implied context.
Last edited by Marseille07 on Sun Sep 11, 2022 10:36 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

halfnine wrote: Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:46 am The Chief Arbiter did not say "no cheating". The Chess Arbiter said there is currently "no indication that any player has been playing unfairly". So the question then becomes what does playing unfairly mean. It typically means (a) player was caught red-handed and/or (b) probability analysis has determined a 99.x % probability that a player cheater. If, for instance, a player is deemed to be 95% likely to have cheated no violation will have occurred. And, like I mentioned previously, this is one of the inherent problems with how chess is run. People, likely yourself, are using this as an example of proof of innocence (no cheating) which it is not. Chess is pretending via clever marketing that they have a handle on cheating and cheating is futile as it will be caught. However, one could make an argument based on probability anaylsis that cheaters can get away with it far more often than not.

So, we do not know the statistical probability cheating actually occurred. Nor will this information be released. Although, I have heard (unofficially) that nothing put Niemann near the levels of others who have been busted.
That's true. And it is a difficult problem because unless we catch Niemann red-handed, we can't be for sure if he cheated on one move or 10 moves or not at all.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by canadianbacon »

So, the data-mining exercises continue -- as I expected, this is early days. What we have seen so far:
  1. The Twitter account Atlanta Kings tweeted that an analysis of Niemann's results in 2019-2020 showed a higher USCF rating during games with live broadcasts than those without. The methodology used here has been questioned by another Twitter account named "Strong Chess", whose own analysis argues nothing suspicious (and who am I to argue with "Strong Chess"?)
  2. The Youtube account "Chess fan MWP", a Ukrainian FM, posted a video that shows exceptional, engine-level performance at key moments of a tournament where Niemann won a GM norm. He only looked at parts of games after the opening and where the outcome was still in doubt (eval is between +3 and -3). It has been extensively discussed on Reddit and there are some questions about methodology. Many would like to see a similar analysis done of other top juniors in their best tournaments, or of Magnus-level players facing strong IM/low GM competition, to compare.
  3. A reddit user posted a thread showing centipawn loss per move in online chess comparing Niemann's last 4000 games to those of several other top players. While there are many methodological issues with this analysis, including that he didn't control for time control, and that his table starts at 1 centipawn loss moves (no comparison of 0 centipawn), it could be the starting point for a better exercise. In a sense, it's the opposite of the FM's analysis, in that it looks at a larger number of games, which were played online, and does a more superficial analysis. Reddit mods have now deleted the thread, but you can find the charts here. We already know something was going on on-line, so the only question is the extent of it.
  4. The Ukrainian FM is back with a new video looking at Niemann games from the Capablanca memorial tournament this year. Again, it would be interesting to see a comparison to other top players to see how likely a performance like this would be.
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Marseille07
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

Looks like Alireza won the Sinquefield Cup after beating Nepo in a tiebreak match. I wish he played better at the Candidates.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by gips »

I am finding more and more computers take the joy out of winning. More often than not, I play over a win where I thought I'd played well and the computer finds a much simpler line or worse. points out my line was unsound. I beat a 2350 player today in 3-2, thought I'd attacked brilliantly but the computer showed the key move of my attack, a piece sac, was unsound. I played well before and after the sac, but it's hard to take any joy from the win.

sigh.
Last edited by gips on Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Marseille07
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

gips wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:56 pm I am finding more and more computers take the joy out of winning. More often than not, I play over a win where I thought I'd played well and the computer finds a much simpler line or worse. points out my line was unsound. I beat a 2350 player today in 3-2, thought I'd attacked brilliantly but the computer showed the key move of my attack, a piece sac, was unsound. I played well before and after the sac, but it's hard to take much joy from the win.

sigh.
Anything can happen in 3-2 though, no? Even the GMs do not play accurately under the time control.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by gips »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:59 pm
gips wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:56 pm I am finding more and more computers take the joy out of winning. More often than not, I play over a win where I thought I'd played well and the computer finds a much simpler line or worse. points out my line was unsound. I beat a 2350 player today in 3-2, thought I'd attacked brilliantly but the computer showed the key move of my attack, a piece sac, was unsound. I played well before and after the sac, but it's hard to take much joy from the win.

sigh.
Anything can happen in 3-2 though, no? Even the GMs do not play accurately under the time control.
yes, when I watch the coffee chess crew the advantage often jumps back and forth, side to side, as caluclated by the computer. I don't mind not finding the best move but starting with a terrible move is, for me, not satisfying.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by halfnine »

gips wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:03 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:59 pm
gips wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:56 pm I am finding more and more computers take the joy out of winning. More often than not, I play over a win where I thought I'd played well and the computer finds a much simpler line or worse. points out my line was unsound. I beat a 2350 player today in 3-2, thought I'd attacked brilliantly but the computer showed the key move of my attack, a piece sac, was unsound. I played well before and after the sac, but it's hard to take much joy from the win.

sigh.
Anything can happen in 3-2 though, no? Even the GMs do not play accurately under the time control.
yes, when I watch the coffee chess crew the advantage often jumps back and forth, side to side, as caluclated by the computer. I don't mind not finding the best move but starting with a terrible move is, for me, not satisfying.
Blitz chess probably isn't for you then. It's to some extent about egregious attacks, tricks and deceit knowing full well one's opponent does not have enough time to figure out the refutation. And an error on their part will lead to mate while an error on your part often can still lead to a game. I've become more of a fan of rapid chess. Short enough that poor play generally isn't rewarded but not so long that one can hide their weaknesses.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by gips »

halfnine wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 12:50 am
gips wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:03 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:59 pm
gips wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:56 pm I am finding more and more computers take the joy out of winning. More often than not, I play over a win where I thought I'd played well and the computer finds a much simpler line or worse. points out my line was unsound. I beat a 2350 player today in 3-2, thought I'd attacked brilliantly but the computer showed the key move of my attack, a piece sac, was unsound. I played well before and after the sac, but it's hard to take much joy from the win.

sigh.
Anything can happen in 3-2 though, no? Even the GMs do not play accurately under the time control.
yes, when I watch the coffee chess crew the advantage often jumps back and forth, side to side, as caluclated by the computer. I don't mind not finding the best move but starting with a terrible move is, for me, not satisfying.
Blitz chess probably isn't for you then. It's to some extent about egregious attacks, tricks and deceit knowing full well one's opponent does not have enough time to figure out the refutation. And an error on their part will lead to mate while an error on your part often can still lead to a game. I've become more of a fan of rapid chess. Short enough that poor play generally isn't rewarded but not so long that one can hide their weaknesses.
well, i’ve been playing blitz for over 50 years and enjoy it. it’s the advent of post-game computer analysis that ruins it for me. maybe i’ll just stop looking at my blitz games unless I lose.

i was told by a friend who is a master that I attack like a master and defend like a patzer, against players in the 2200-2400 range i know I have to steer the position into an open, attacking position.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by DoubleClick »

Apologies for being slightly off topic: http://go.davepeck.org/get-going/ is the best equivalent for Go to lichess.org, by all account on the internet. However, when I try to start a game there, I get:
"Sorry, an unexpected error occured. Please try again in a minute or two."

Tried with several different browsers on several days. Anyone have experience with this?
Marseille07
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

In-form Niemann beats Carlsen yet again: https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-ju ... -cup-day-2

Just kidding, Carlsen resigned the game after one move; basically saying he wants none of Niemann.

Actual broadcast of the game: https://twitter.com/chess24com/status/1 ... 92448?s=20

Leko and Tania are understandably, shocked.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Random Musings »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:12 pm In-form Niemann beats Carlsen yet again: https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-ju ... -cup-day-2

Just kidding, Carlsen resigned the game after one move; basically saying he wants none of Niemann.

Actual broadcast of the game: https://twitter.com/chess24com/status/1 ... 92448?s=20

Leko and Tania are understandably, shocked.
Carlsen knew he was in a losing position after c4.

Seriously, is he going to present his case or just drag on these antics in perpetuity? Niemen is no on-line angel for sure with two marks against him (he was pretty young the first time so perhaps forgiveness is required there), but it HAS to be more than that. If not, Carlsen is off form, as they like to say.

RM
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

Random Musings wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:49 pm Carlsen knew he was in a losing position after c4.

Seriously, is he going to present his case or just drag on these antics in perpetuity? Niemen is no on-line angel for sure with two marks against him (he was pretty young the first time so perhaps forgiveness is required there), but it HAS to be more than that. If not, Carlsen is off form, as they like to say.

RM
It's disturbing for sure. This resignation is difficult to defend, as Carlsen can't possibly say Niemann was cheating by move 2. Needless to say, resigning in this fashion is unsportsmanlike, and most likely violates some policy of FIDE & whatever tournaments he partakes in.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by rockstar »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:55 pm
Random Musings wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:49 pm Carlsen knew he was in a losing position after c4.

Seriously, is he going to present his case or just drag on these antics in perpetuity? Niemen is no on-line angel for sure with two marks against him (he was pretty young the first time so perhaps forgiveness is required there), but it HAS to be more than that. If not, Carlsen is off form, as they like to say.

RM
It's disturbing for sure. This resignation is difficult to defend, as Carlsen can't possibly say Niemann was cheating by move 2. Needless to say, resigning in this fashion is unsportsmanlike, and most likely violates some policy of FIDE & whatever tournaments he partakes in.
He's losing his mind.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:10 pm He's losing his mind.
I heard Carlsen & Niemann are likely to face each other in the knockout stage of the competition. I suspect Carlsen will resign again in that case.
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Marseille07
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

Carlsen finally talked about Niemann: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c50PJmOj2-U
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

Niemann played like an engine, destroyed Aronian in 21 moves: https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=2379104
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

I don't like the title of an article so I won't link here, but Magnus will speak more after the tournament:
It wasn't until Sept. 21 when Carlsen -- who is still competing in the event -- finally said something about the situation, although it wasn't much. He kept his answers very general, avoided his thoughts on the cheating speculation, and said he will say more at the conclusion of the tournament, which will wrap up on Sept. 25.
Niemann and Carlsen are in different brackets and won't meet till the final.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by gips »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:16 pm Niemann played like an engine, destroyed Aronian in 21 moves: https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=2379104
indeed, did that raise any eyebrows?
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

gips wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:33 pm indeed, did that raise any eyebrows?
I was kidding, Aronian is tilted so no eyebrows raised: https://africanchessconfederation.com/2 ... nge-moves/
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by halfnine »

Fabi providing the best insight so far

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCFB_rNGTaw
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by gips »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:37 pm
gips wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:33 pm indeed, did that raise any eyebrows?
I was kidding, Aronian is tilted so no eyebrows raised: https://africanchessconfederation.com/2 ... nge-moves/
you may have been kidding but as aronian said, that was an odd game niemann played. obviously aronian is a million times better to analyze the game but if i had lost a game like that, i’d have had some reservations about my opponents play.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

gips wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:59 am you may have been kidding but as aronian said, that was an odd game niemann played. obviously aronian is a million times better to analyze the game but if i had lost a game like that, i’d have had some reservations about my opponents play.
Maybe Niemann played an A-game. At this point we all have to wait for the tournament to complete & Magnus to speak more about the situation.

Magnus did mention Maxim Dlugy who is apparently another suspected cheater and coached Niemann. So there is another insinuation that Niemann is cheating.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

FIDE's official statement on Carlsen & Niemann: https://www.fide.com/news/1999
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Re: Let's play chess

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I removed a post and reply questioning the relevance of this topic as a consumer issue. Chess is on-topic as a hobby / leisure activity. As a reminder, see: Personal Consumer Issues
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by halfnine »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:20 pm FIDE's official statement on Carlsen & Niemann: https://www.fide.com/news/1999
Via Fide Statement
...We propose to launch a dedicated Panel, that would include representatives of the leading chess platforms, Grandmasters, anti-cheating experts and FIDE officers, in order to fight this risk and prevent it becomes a real plague...
This to me was Carlsen's endgame all along. FIDE has been sitting around with their head in the sand. Say whatever you want about Carlsen's method but within 3 weeks he managed to get FIDE's attention. There has been a lot of talk that Carlsen should have done it differently but nobody has ever indicated what exactly he should have done, nor what FIDE would have done had he approached them indepently (pretty much nothing), nor how long it would have taken FIDE if they actually were going to do something (years?).
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

halfnine wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:52 am Via Fide Statement
...We propose to launch a dedicated Panel, that would include representatives of the leading chess platforms, Grandmasters, anti-cheating experts and FIDE officers, in order to fight this risk and prevent it becomes a real plague...
This to me was Carlsen's endgame all along. FIDE has been sitting around with their head in the sand. Say whatever you want about Carlsen's method but within 3 weeks he managed to get FIDE's attention. There has been a lot of talk that Carlsen should have done it differently but nobody has ever indicated what exactly he should have done, nor what FIDE would have done had he approached them indepently (pretty much nothing), nor how long it would have taken FIDE if they actually were going to do something (years?).
I think we will have to see how rigorously they will monitor cheating. I was watching a video of Hikaru yesterday in which he said they don't do much except the top-level tournaments (Sinquefield, Candidates etc etc) due to cost on the organizers to finance security measures.

How much they can do on online tournaments like the Generation Cup, I'm not so sure. I also think it's difficult to justify resigning on move 2.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

Carlsen crushed Erigaisi to win the Julius Baer Generation Cup.

Carlsen to issue a statement in coming days regarding cheating (yes, he mentioned cheating for the first time): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjuObLVpuaU
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

Carlsen's statement: https://twitter.com/MagnusCarlsen/statu ... 4406565888

I think the most interesting part is this piece:
Unfortunately, at this time I am limited in what I can say without explicit permission from Niemann to speak openly.
It's very passive-aggressive by Carlsen because he makes it sound like he's prevented by Niemann to speak openly but I don't think Niemann prevented anything. But Carlsen's aim is to paint Niemann as a cheater who tries to hush-hush on Carlsen.
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Re: Let's play chess

Post by Marseille07 »

This is quite telling, assuming the analysis is correct: https://twitter.com/ty_johannes/status/ ... 5744668673

The world champion has much fewer games than Niemann where his moves coincided with engine moves.
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