Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

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alluringreality
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by alluringreality »

dertere wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 10:36 am Curious if anyone has insight into what is meant about bonds being over-priced here?
Generally I don't follow Grantham, but a search returned a similar comment in the following interview. It appears this segment may have been removed from the video, and there are some errors in the transcript, yet the comment is in the audio. During my first audio read of the book I haven't been able to tie the muddled narratives together as necessarily being consistent with each other, although both Grantham and Chancellor habitually criticize recent central bank policy. Since Grantham also labels Chancellor a "bubble expert" in the Viewpoints text, I'll presume The Price of Time may be in line with his take on the bond market.

"As if that wasn’t enough, we have the lowest interest rates in 6,000 years as Jim [Grant] would say or Edward Chancellor’s written a brilliant new book, The Price Of Time. Of course, with the lowest rates in 6,000 years, you have the highest bond prices and that’s obviously been taken to the cleaners this year, too. You have bonds, housing, stocks and commodities."
https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/epi ... -grantham/
https://art19.com/shows/the-investors-p ... e06c2f7202
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by smooth_rough »

0 growth + inflation = stagflation

Resulting in (mild) recession.

But bursting of super bubble is overly dramatic.

If he believed that he'd move everything into cash and put it in a safe in his house.

The economy will go on without the perma-bears, like it always does.
Last edited by smooth_rough on Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
Lecture
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Lecture »

Ben Carlson won't ever come close to being a billionaire (like Grantham may be) but Ben's 4 rules surpass anything Grantham said....Particularly rule #3, ;)

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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Bagels »

Harmanic wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:48 am No mention of EM in his latest report. EM has been his siren call for years and he said he invested all his sister's money in EM. Now that EM has far underperformed, crickets.
Uh oh, then what is he selling now? :-)
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Beensabu »

Bagels wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 3:41 pm
Harmanic wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:48 am No mention of EM in his latest report. EM has been his siren call for years and he said he invested all his sister's money in EM. Now that EM has far underperformed, crickets.
Uh oh, then what is he selling now? :-)
I think he's just saying we're screwed.

If you read the "near-term problems" and "long-term problems" sections of his recent blog post, it's just... yup... nice six paragraph summary of the whole situation. He's very aware and really good at articulating his observations in an accessible way. Not that awareness necessarily helps with investing successfully (obviously). But he has pointed out things that are good to know, if you didn't already.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Lecture »

Beensabu wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 1:07 pm
Bagels wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 3:41 pm
Harmanic wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:48 am No mention of EM in his latest report. EM has been his siren call for years and he said he invested all his sister's money in EM. Now that EM has far underperformed, crickets.
Uh oh, then what is he selling now? :-)
I think he's just saying we're screwed.

If you read the "near-term problems" and "long-term problems" sections of his recent blog post, it's just... yup... nice six paragraph summary of the whole situation. He's very aware and really good at articulating his observations in an accessible way. Not that awareness necessarily helps with investing successfully (obviously). But he has pointed out things that are good to know, if you didn't already.
Boy, that's a pretty dismal outlook he has. But I'm pretty sure he's still selling something, those guys (Dalio, etc) always do.
I still go with Ben Carlson: "The world never actually comes to an end and if it ever does it won’t matter what your portfolio looks like."
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by InvestInPasta »

Harmanic wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:48 am No mention of EM in his latest report. EM has been his siren call for years and he said he invested all his sister's money in EM. Now that EM has far underperformed, crickets.
This time is saying something like to stay away from emerging too.
NEAR-TERM PROBLEMS
The food/energy/fertilizer problems, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, are even worse in the emerging world (especially Africa)
than the European energy problems we have heard about. Russia and Belarus account for 40% of global exports of potash, a key fertilizer, driving wheat/corn/soybean prices to records earlier this year. Increased food and energy prices are causing acute trade imbalances and civil disorder in the most vulnerable countries, as seen for example in the extremely rapid virtual collapse of the Sri Lankan economy. The energy shock is now all but guaranteed to tip Europe into recession; while the U.S. market has a long history of ignoring foreign problems and interactions, global growth is assuredly coming down.
- https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... -final-act
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Nathan Drake »

InvestInPasta wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 12:08 pm
Harmanic wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:48 am No mention of EM in his latest report. EM has been his siren call for years and he said he invested all his sister's money in EM. Now that EM has far underperformed, crickets.
This time is saying something like to stay away from emerging too.
NEAR-TERM PROBLEMS
The food/energy/fertilizer problems, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, are even worse in the emerging world (especially Africa)
than the European energy problems we have heard about. Russia and Belarus account for 40% of global exports of potash, a key fertilizer, driving wheat/corn/soybean prices to records earlier this year. Increased food and energy prices are causing acute trade imbalances and civil disorder in the most vulnerable countries, as seen for example in the extremely rapid virtual collapse of the Sri Lankan economy. The energy shock is now all but guaranteed to tip Europe into recession; while the U.S. market has a long history of ignoring foreign problems and interactions, global growth is assuredly coming down.
- https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... -final-act
I don't think he's saying that. The super bubble he speaks of is very specific to US stocks and their valuations.

He still believes exUS and EM specifically are very cheap. Those countries mentioned are frontier markets, not EM.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Beensabu »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 12:52 pm
InvestInPasta wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 12:08 pm
Harmanic wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:48 am No mention of EM in his latest report. EM has been his siren call for years and he said he invested all his sister's money in EM. Now that EM has far underperformed, crickets.
This time is saying something like to stay away from emerging too.
NEAR-TERM PROBLEMS
The food/energy/fertilizer problems, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, are even worse in the emerging world (especially Africa)
than the European energy problems we have heard about. Russia and Belarus account for 40% of global exports of potash, a key fertilizer, driving wheat/corn/soybean prices to records earlier this year. Increased food and energy prices are causing acute trade imbalances and civil disorder in the most vulnerable countries, as seen for example in the extremely rapid virtual collapse of the Sri Lankan economy. The energy shock is now all but guaranteed to tip Europe into recession; while the U.S. market has a long history of ignoring foreign problems and interactions, global growth is assuredly coming down.
- https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... -final-act
I don't think he's saying that.
No, I think he's saying it's all going to poop.
The super bubble he speaks of is very specific to US stocks and their valuations.
Yes. And beyond the super bubble, it's all going to poop. The super bubble is like extra poop.

Sorry. But yeah.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Nathan Drake »

Beensabu wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:18 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 12:52 pm
InvestInPasta wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 12:08 pm
Harmanic wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:48 am No mention of EM in his latest report. EM has been his siren call for years and he said he invested all his sister's money in EM. Now that EM has far underperformed, crickets.
This time is saying something like to stay away from emerging too.
NEAR-TERM PROBLEMS
The food/energy/fertilizer problems, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, are even worse in the emerging world (especially Africa)
than the European energy problems we have heard about. Russia and Belarus account for 40% of global exports of potash, a key fertilizer, driving wheat/corn/soybean prices to records earlier this year. Increased food and energy prices are causing acute trade imbalances and civil disorder in the most vulnerable countries, as seen for example in the extremely rapid virtual collapse of the Sri Lankan economy. The energy shock is now all but guaranteed to tip Europe into recession; while the U.S. market has a long history of ignoring foreign problems and interactions, global growth is assuredly coming down.
- https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... -final-act
I don't think he's saying that.
No, I think he's saying it's all going to poop.
The super bubble he speaks of is very specific to US stocks and their valuations.
Yes. And beyond the super bubble, it's all going to poop. The super bubble is like extra poop.

Sorry. But yeah.
Some poop gets unclogged quicker than super bubble poop that requires a plumber
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Beensabu »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:35 pm
Beensabu wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:18 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 12:52 pm
InvestInPasta wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 12:08 pm
Harmanic wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:48 am No mention of EM in his latest report. EM has been his siren call for years and he said he invested all his sister's money in EM. Now that EM has far underperformed, crickets.
This time is saying something like to stay away from emerging too.
NEAR-TERM PROBLEMS
The food/energy/fertilizer problems, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, are even worse in the emerging world (especially Africa)
than the European energy problems we have heard about. Russia and Belarus account for 40% of global exports of potash, a key fertilizer, driving wheat/corn/soybean prices to records earlier this year. Increased food and energy prices are causing acute trade imbalances and civil disorder in the most vulnerable countries, as seen for example in the extremely rapid virtual collapse of the Sri Lankan economy. The energy shock is now all but guaranteed to tip Europe into recession; while the U.S. market has a long history of ignoring foreign problems and interactions, global growth is assuredly coming down.
- https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... -final-act
I don't think he's saying that.
No, I think he's saying it's all going to poop.
The super bubble he speaks of is very specific to US stocks and their valuations.
Yes. And beyond the super bubble, it's all going to poop. The super bubble is like extra poop.

Sorry. But yeah.
Some poop gets unclogged quicker than super bubble poop that requires a plumber
Not if you're willing to use some kind of draino.

It's all relative. It's just maybe some things have farther to fall than others. That doesn't mean any of them will recover faster than others. It just means some have farther to fall, for no other reason than they've happened to flown so much higher. Like Icarus and his wings. Just a little too high.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Nathan Drake »

Beensabu wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 11:11 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:35 pm
Beensabu wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:18 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 12:52 pm
InvestInPasta wrote: Mon Sep 05, 2022 12:08 pm
This time is saying something like to stay away from emerging too.

- https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... -final-act
I don't think he's saying that.
No, I think he's saying it's all going to poop.
The super bubble he speaks of is very specific to US stocks and their valuations.
Yes. And beyond the super bubble, it's all going to poop. The super bubble is like extra poop.

Sorry. But yeah.
Some poop gets unclogged quicker than super bubble poop that requires a plumber
Not if you're willing to use some kind of draino.

It's all relative. It's just maybe some things have farther to fall than others. That doesn't mean any of them will recover faster than others. It just means some have farther to fall, for no other reason than they've happened to flown so much higher. Like Icarus and his wings. Just a little too high.
Historically any region in a bubble has largely had that bubble deflate over a long period of time before it recovers all time highs again

Assets that aren’t in a bubble can still be hit due to short term recessions, but because valuations were never stretched to begin with, recovery is more swift

We’ve seen countless examples of this
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Beensabu »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:20 am Historically any region in a bubble has largely had that bubble deflate over a long period of time before it recovers all time highs again

Assets that aren’t in a bubble can still be hit due to short term recessions, but because valuations were never stretched to begin with, recovery is more swift

We’ve seen countless examples of this
Do you really read the list of various ways everyone everywhere is likely screwed and come out of that with short term recession expectations?
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Nathan Drake »

Beensabu wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:04 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:20 am Historically any region in a bubble has largely had that bubble deflate over a long period of time before it recovers all time highs again

Assets that aren’t in a bubble can still be hit due to short term recessions, but because valuations were never stretched to begin with, recovery is more swift

We’ve seen countless examples of this
Do you really read the list of various ways everyone everywhere is likely screwed and come out of that with short term recession expectations?
Sure. Everyone was screwed in 2000, some were screwed for 13 years, others only 2.

His claim of what a super bubble entails is very specific to US TSM
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Beensabu »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:34 pm His claim of what a super bubble entails is very specific to US TSM
He's not just talking about the US-specific super bubble in his latest blog post, regardless of the title.

This is pretty clear:
Longer term, a broad and permanent food and resource shortage is threatening...
And then he goes on to break it down a bit.

It's like a global dust bowl coming. Who cares about cross-asset overvaluation in the US?
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by pascalwager »

His final conclusion was that there is a tragedy in the making. Our grade-school English teacher (~1958) told us that the word "tragedy" was
commonly incorrectly used considering it's origins in Greek literature; but this time we may all be simply speechless, or acutely distracted by our own more visceral utterances.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by HomerJ »

Beensabu wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:41 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:34 pm His claim of what a super bubble entails is very specific to US TSM
He's not just talking about the US-specific super bubble in his latest blog post, regardless of the title.

This is pretty clear:
Longer term, a broad and permanent food and resource shortage is threatening...
And then he goes on to break it down a bit.

It's like a global dust bowl coming. Who cares about cross-asset overvaluation in the US?
Permanent food shortage? So now we're beyond a market crash... we're into millions starving to death? Well, he knows how to get clicks, that's for sure.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Beensabu »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:41 pm
Beensabu wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:41 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:34 pm His claim of what a super bubble entails is very specific to US TSM
He's not just talking about the US-specific super bubble in his latest blog post, regardless of the title.

This is pretty clear:
Longer term, a broad and permanent food and resource shortage is threatening...
And then he goes on to break it down a bit.

It's like a global dust bowl coming. Who cares about cross-asset overvaluation in the US?
Permanent food shortage? So now we're beyond a market crash... we're into millions starving to death? Well, he knows how to get clicks, that's for sure.
Did you read it? I know you're diametrically opposed to all things with even a hint of Grantham, but... you might want to read it. He's not the only one saying these things. He just appears to be the only one in the finance realm so far.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by HomerJ »

Beensabu wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 7:32 pm Did you read it?
I cannot believe I am wasting my time...

Right off the bat...
From the November low in 1929 to the April 1930 high, the market rallied 46% – a 55% recovery of the loss from the peak.
In 1973, the summer rally after the initial decline recovered 59% of the S&P 500's total loss from the high.
In 2000, the NASDAQ (which had been the main event of the tech bubble) recovered 60% of its initial losses in just 2 months.
In 2022, at the intraday peak on August 16th, the S&P had made back 58% of its losses since its June low.

Thus we could say the current event, so far, is looking eerily similar to these other historic superbubbles.
So, let's just ignore all the times the market crashed, came back 55%-60% and KEPT RECOVERING.

Because THOSE times looked exactly like the "super-bubble" times, except they actually recovered and went on to new highs.

But how to tell which one you are in?

Also note...
In 2022, at the intraday peak on August 16th, the S&P had made back 58% of its losses since its June low.
It went down 23%, got back up to only 12% down, and has dropped back to 17% down as of today.

Yeah, that's JUST like the Great Depression and the 40%-50% crash in 1973 and 2000. :oops:

We may still be due for a big crash, but it hasn't happened yet.

Okay, here's the food stuff...
The food/energy/fertilizer problems, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, are even worse in the emerging world (especially Africa) than the European energy problems we have heard about. Russia and Belarus account for 40% of global exports of potash, a key fertilizer, driving wheat/corn/soybean prices to records earlier this year. Increased food and energy prices are causing acute trade imbalances and civil disorder in the most vulnerable countries, as seen for example in the extremely rapid virtual collapse of the Sri Lankan economy. The energy shock is now all but guaranteed to tip Europe into recession; while the U.S. market has a long history of ignoring foreign problems and interactions, global growth is assuredly coming down.
Yep, looks bad in the short-term, although the Sri Lanka example is bogus, because those morons in charge actually forced the farmers to stop using fertilizers BEFORE the Ukraine war.

Energy shock in Europe is also indeed a real issue. But is that short-term? or permanent?

Not sure he knows enough to proclaim a PERMANENT food and energy shortage.

He talks about the problem with falling populations level, but also about food issues. Shouldn't a falling population HELP food issues?

And the U.S. is uniquely situated to handle a falling population issue. People WANT to immigrate here. China does not have that solution available. And although Europe is a popular spot for immigration, we don't have the energy and war problems Europe is experiencing. Yet.

If you go back and look at his past papers, he's ALWAYS doom and gloom.

He may be right someday... But he's not that accurate. It really is the smart move to ignore him.

Prepare for doom or gloom, sure... The universe owes us nothing, and the next 50 years could be bad. But Grantham can't predict diddly-squat. He's about as good at it as I am.

No idea why you guys think he is so wise. He may be indeed be a smart guy, but being smart isn't enough to let one predict the future.
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by UncleLeo »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:41 pm
Beensabu wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:41 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:34 pm His claim of what a super bubble entails is very specific to US TSM
He's not just talking about the US-specific super bubble in his latest blog post, regardless of the title.

This is pretty clear:
Longer term, a broad and permanent food and resource shortage is threatening...
And then he goes on to break it down a bit.

It's like a global dust bowl coming. Who cares about cross-asset overvaluation in the US?
Permanent food shortage? So now we're beyond a market crash... we're into millions starving to death? Well, he knows how to get clicks, that's for sure.
There's a big gap between "Permanent food shortage" and "starving to death".
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by HomerJ »

UncleLeo wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:58 pm
HomerJ wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:41 pm
Beensabu wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:41 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:34 pm His claim of what a super bubble entails is very specific to US TSM
He's not just talking about the US-specific super bubble in his latest blog post, regardless of the title.

This is pretty clear:
Longer term, a broad and permanent food and resource shortage is threatening...
And then he goes on to break it down a bit.

It's like a global dust bowl coming. Who cares about cross-asset overvaluation in the US?
Permanent food shortage? So now we're beyond a market crash... we're into millions starving to death? Well, he knows how to get clicks, that's for sure.
There's a big gap between "Permanent food shortage" and "starving to death".
Agreed... I participated in a little bit of hyperbole myself there...

My apologies... :)
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Beensabu »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:57 pm
Beensabu wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 7:32 pm Did you read it?
I cannot believe I am wasting my time...
Good for you. Thank you.

Yea, I always just skim the valuation stuff and go "meh".
Not sure he knows enough to proclaim a PERMANENT food and energy shortage.
Well... there's the bit we can't quote here, right? It's not no big deal. Let's call it weather not conducive to supporting civilization as we know it at its current scale. And it's not just short-term shortages of food and energy, it's the long-term shortages of the resources needed to produce that food and energy.
No idea why you guys think he is so wise. He may be indeed be a smart guy, but being smart isn't enough to let one predict the future.
Oh, it's not about his predictions. I certainly haven't done anything differently because of what he's said.

It's his observations about the global situation at large. Not what to do about it (because let's face it, we can't do anything), but just to realize that those observations are indeed on point. I like to know things are coming, because I panic in unexpected situations -- and panic just makes things worse. In some situations, it can be a game ender.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by HomerJ »

Beensabu wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 11:50 pm It's his observations about the global situation at large. Not what to do about it (because let's face it, we can't do anything), but just to realize that those observations are indeed on point. I like to know things are coming, because I panic in unexpected situations -- and panic just makes things worse. In some situations, it can be a game ender.
Well, you are reading it the correct way I suppose. As a word of caution.

I think he's saying those things to get the clicks. PERMANENT doom and gloom is even a bigger sell than the standard short-term doom and gloom followed by a recovery.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Nathan Drake »

The problem with these doomsday prognosticators is that they fail to account for human ingenuity overcoming problems we face
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by marcopolo »

Beensabu wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 11:50 pm
HomerJ wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:57 pm
Beensabu wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 7:32 pm Did you read it?
I cannot believe I am wasting my time...
Good for you. Thank you.

Yea, I always just skim the valuation stuff and go "meh".
Not sure he knows enough to proclaim a PERMANENT food and energy shortage.
Well... there's the bit we can't quote here, right? It's not no big deal. Let's call it weather not conducive to supporting civilization as we know it at its current scale. And it's not just short-term shortages of food and energy, it's the long-term shortages of the resources needed to produce that food and energy.
No idea why you guys think he is so wise. He may be indeed be a smart guy, but being smart isn't enough to let one predict the future.
Oh, it's not about his predictions. I certainly haven't done anything differently because of what he's said.

It's his observations about the global situation at large. Not what to do about it (because let's face it, we can't do anything), but just to realize that those observations are indeed on point. I like to know things are coming, because I panic in unexpected situations -- and panic just makes things worse. In some situations, it can be a game ender.

People have been predicting the end of civilization for quite some time, probably from the start of civilization. I suppose just like the perma bears, they will also be right someday, maybe at the same time. If that time is now, i guess we are all doomed.

So far, the Malthusian theory has not quite worked out as predicted. But, if we are all doomed, might as well enjoy the ride! :beer
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by marcopolo »

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 1:37 am The problem with these doomsday prognosticators is that they fail to account for human ingenuity overcoming problems we face
+1
It is quite surprising from a group of people that obviously have. benefitted so much from said ingenuity in improving their quality of life, as well as growing their portfolio.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Beensabu
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Beensabu »

marcopolo wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:09 am People have been predicting the end of civilization for quite some time, probably from the start of civilization. I suppose just like the perma bears, they will also be right someday, maybe at the same time. If that time is now, i guess we are all doomed.
The end? Not the end. We're at least quite squarely in the middle, don't you think? If not still at the beginning. We'll (some of us) figure out something. It just won't be the same.
But, if we are all doomed, might as well enjoy the ride! :beer
Agreed. There's a no refund policy.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by JBTX »

I put this as a separate thread because it is a completely different topic - it is a good article on sequence of returns by GMO. But alas it may not draw much interest.


viewtopic.php?t=385585


I reference it here for a different reason. It gives a context of how following GMO suggestions could, in theory, be useful. The standard BH take is they predict bad things and they either don’t happen, or happen years later, you miss upside and a 100% index fund wins on a total return basis, so there is no value in GMO strategy.

However a different way to look at them would be on a risk adjusted strategy, and expanding risk definition to limited downsides.

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gmwax/chart

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gbmfx/chart

At first glance, they look pretty middling and unimpressive compared to benchmarks on a cumulative return basis. But if you look more closely at the downturns, 2000, 2008, 2020, the drops were much less than the overall market. If your goal is to minimize sequence risk, to maximize your probability of long term success, such strategies may have merit.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Lecture »

? ...looking at results over 20 yrs 2002-2022 (that's fairly long term)...
GMWAX +236.27% IVV (the ishares SP500 index ETF) +621.78%
Graph wise, GMWAX was very slightly better ~ 2007-2013, but quite minimal difference. 2002-2007, identical. 2014 to now, yikes.
Expense ratios- GMWAX 0.63%, IVV 0.03%.

"If your goal is to minimize sequence risk"......respectfully, isn't this another way of saying "if your goal is to time the market"?
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by JBTX »

Lecture wrote: Thu Sep 08, 2022 8:54 pm ? ...looking at results over 20 yrs 2002-2022 (that's fairly long term)...
GMWAX +236.27% IVV (the ishares SP500 index ETF) +621.78%
Graph wise, GMWAX was very slightly better ~ 2007-2013, but quite minimal difference. 2002-2007, identical. 2014 to now, yikes.
Expense ratios- GMWAX 0.63%, IVV 0.03%.

"If your goal is to minimize sequence risk"......respectfully, isn't this another way of saying "if your goal is to time the market"?
So you basically repeated what I said typical Bogleheads would say.

But yes, Grantham advocates a form of market timing based upon perceived valuations. The result of the timing is they miss the worst of the downturns, but they miss a lot of upside too. If your goal is to maximize expected value, regardless of risk, then 100% S&P will almost certainly beat it. If you goal is to minimize your chance of failure during the withdrawal phase, the GMO strategy may be superior, but I don’t know that because I haven’t seen their actual historical numbers. They do present the results of a valuation model that gives better results using history, in the worst scenarios, but I don’t know if that hypothetical valuation model closely mirrors exactly what they do or will do in the future.

For the record, I’m not specifically endorsing their methodology, but just saying comparing them to an S&P historical index isn’t terribly informative.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by CraigTester »

Attached below is a Sept 17, 2022 analysis of Grantham's Super bubble call by Pension Craft.

Craig Tester

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXJewIRzSMU
JBTX
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by JBTX »

CraigTester wrote: Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:53 pm Attached below is a Sept 17, 2022 analysis of Grantham's Super bubble call by Pension Craft.

Craig Tester

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXJewIRzSMU
That video does a really good job describing Grantham’s hypothesis.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by HomerJ »

JBTX wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:52 pm
CraigTester wrote: Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:53 pm Attached below is a Sept 17, 2022 analysis of Grantham's Super bubble call by Pension Craft.

Craig Tester

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXJewIRzSMU
That video does a really good job describing Grantham’s hypothesis.
It's the same hypothesis he had in 2018 and 2020.

He definitely didn't predict Covid and the Ukraine war.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by JBTX »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:59 pm
JBTX wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:52 pm
CraigTester wrote: Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:53 pm Attached below is a Sept 17, 2022 analysis of Grantham's Super bubble call by Pension Craft.

Craig Tester

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXJewIRzSMU
That video does a really good job describing Grantham’s hypothesis.
It's the same hypothesis he had in 2018 and 2020.

He definitely didn't predict Covid and the Ukraine war.
My point was the video does a good job of articulating the hypothesis. Whether you agree or disagree with it is another matter and has been hashed and rehashed over and over in this thread.

You don’t have to specifically predict such events. Throughout human history these types of events have happened and will continue to happen, and in some cases they may correspond to major market movements.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by jay22 »

Grantham might be the most boring perma-bear out there.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Beensabu »

jay22 wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:31 pm Grantham might be the most boring perma-bear out there.
I was going to take offense to "boring", and then I just realized that the most awesome "deranged monetary activism" phrase that I've kept mistakenly attributing to him is actually Hussman's... Because I searched for it. And I found it. So go read that dude's stuff. And I'm sorry, Mr. Hussman, wherever you are out there. It's an excellent phrase. I should remember who actually wrote it.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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CraigTester
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by CraigTester »

As agreed, keeping this audit trail thread going....

His Latest Update, Sept 26, 2022, titled:

"Everyone Will Be Wiped Out In 30 Days" | Jeremy Grantham's Last WARNING

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JqDV212IYw
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by Robot Monster »

CraigTester wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:16 pm As agreed, keeping this audit trail thread going....

His Latest Update, Sept 26, 2022, titled:

"Everyone Will Be Wiped Out In 30 Days" | Jeremy Grantham's Last WARNING

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JqDV212IYw
"Everyone Will Be Wiped Out In 30 Days" sounds a bit click-baity and silly.
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by PoorHomieQuan »

CraigTester wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:16 pm As agreed, keeping this audit trail thread going....

His Latest Update, Sept 26, 2022, titled:

"Everyone Will Be Wiped Out In 30 Days" | Jeremy Grantham's Last WARNING

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JqDV212IYw
That's not Jeremy Grantham
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Re: Jeremy Grantham (Jan 26, 2022) being asked a lot of tough questions about his super bubble call...

Post by marcopolo »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:35 pm
CraigTester wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:16 pm As agreed, keeping this audit trail thread going....

His Latest Update, Sept 26, 2022, titled:

"Everyone Will Be Wiped Out In 30 Days" | Jeremy Grantham's Last WARNING

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JqDV212IYw
"Everyone Will Be Wiped Out In 30 Days" sounds a bit click-baity and silly.
Even if we have the 50% wipeout he refers to, people would still be ahead of where they would be if they had been listening to him about the impending crash and had been out of the markets for the last decade.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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