Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

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Valuethinker
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

gougou wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:16 am
mervinj7 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:35 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:58 pm
d0gerz wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:44 pm Is the 30 cents per kWH your total effective rate ie total billed $/kWH usage? I ask because on my last bill (I'm in Metrowest Boston with Eversource) the 'Generation Service Charge' is 17.5c/kWH, but when I add on the half a dozen other charges like distribution charge, transmission charge, etc., in total it becomes an effective rate of around 33c/kWH.
Bill came in the mail today and indeed, the cost has gone up. The bill makes life easy. Here's numbers for math people:

$612.49
1881 kWHr actual use

$0.32561935 per kWHr

I'm in Middlesex county (metrowest) and with Eversource.

For people using some average cost, I'd recommend you look at your electric bill. It's really fun, especially with a month of high temperatures, work at home and AC use. I did expect this highest I've ever seen bill.

I also am seeing gas prices go down. So how many hundred years to break even now?
I was only half joking earlier. Have you considered solar? In terms of usage, last month was also a peak month for us with work at home, high AC usage, and predominantly using our EV for trips. However, our electricity bill was still less than $10.
So now you need to spend an extra 10s of thousands dollars to make your own fuel if you want to buy an EV? That’s not cheap at all. Maybe I want to put my 10s of thousands dollars in VTI instead.
There are excellent home mini-reactors available. General Atomics will sell you one for less than $50k New Dollars. Power too cheap to meter.
billaster
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

hunoraut wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:10 am
billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:36 pm I realize that, thanks to all the Musk hype and self-promotion, many people think Tesla invented electric cars. The fact is that Nissan had already sold over 400,000 EVs while Tesla was still trying to figure out how to cobble together a few Model 3s in a circus tent.
Tesla popularized and legitimized real passenger-carrying, distance-driving, electric cars as cars, instead of novelties.

There have been electric vehicles for decades, but mostly miniature micro city-class.

Nissans first ‘legitimate’ series production passenger electric car is the Leaf. It had 24kwh battery, 110hp, and ~100mi range (if you count that as legitimate). They sold 50 of them by year end 2010.

That same time, Tesla had already sold 1000+ 250hp 200mi range Roadsters.

By 2015, Teslas Model S was outselling the Leaf on annual basis. It had 300+ hp and 250mi+ range. The Leaf was still on 100mi.
Wait, you are saying that the Roadster, a $120,000 toy for rich people, was a "legitimized real passenger-carrying, distance-driving, electric cars as cars, instead of novelties."

There were a grand total of 2,100 Roadsters sold -- ever. That's the very definition of "novelty." Nissan in its first full production year in 2011 sold more LEAFs than Roadsters sold -- ever. First year of LEAFs outsold a lifetime of Roadsters.

Then Tesla came out with its next car, the Model S, which at $100,000 was still just a toy for rich people. In 2017 when the Chevy Bolt was introduced, it sold as many cars in its very first year as Model S cars sold in its fifth year. That is still a record for first year production of EVs, the Chevy Bolt, an EV that the average family could afford.

The Musk hype and self-promotion is powerful. People think he invented EVs. Nissan and Chevy were already selling hundreds of thousands of EVs affordable for the average family when Tesla was still making expensive toys for rich people.
hunoraut
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by hunoraut »

billaster wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:33 pm Wait, you are saying that a $120,000 toy for rich people was a "legitimized real passenger-carrying, distance-driving, electric cars as cars, instead of novelties."

There were a grand total of 2,100 Roadsters sold -- ever. That's the very definition of "novelty." The Nissan in its first full production year in 2011 sold more LEAFs than Roadsters sold -- ever. First year of LEAFs outsold a lifetime of Roadsters.
The Roadster legitimized electric car for performance and range. At 1320ft it clocks a speed faster than the Leaf with unlimited runway. Its EPA range is 3x the Leaf's. (If people in this thread are wringing their hands over today's 250mi range, what would they think of the Leaf's 70?)

The Model S legitimized electric car as all around vehicle - 5 passengers, cargo, and real life range.
billaster wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:33 pm Then Tesla came out with its next car, the Model S, which at $100,000 was still just a toy for rich people. In 2017 when the Chevy Bolt was introduced, it sold as many cars in its very first year as Model S cars sold in its fifth year. That is still a record for first year production of EVs, the Chevy Bolt, an EV that the average family could afford.
Apparently, it's sooooo expensive, that it outsold the Leaf every year after initial production?

In 2017, when the Chevrolet Bolt/Opel Ampera was sold, its combined global sales was ~28500. The Model S sold ~55000 (its year 5 was ~51000). The Leaf sold ~47000.

(And that year, something called the Model 3 was released...)
billaster wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:33 pm The Musk hype and self-promotion is powerful. People think he invented EVs. Nissan and Chevy were already selling hundreds of thousands of EVs affordable for the average family when Tesla was still making expensive toys for rich people.
That's funny. When Chevrolet sold its 100,000th Bolt/Ampera (in 2020), Tesla had sold 1.4 million vehicles.
When Nissan sold its 100,000th Leaf (early 2014), Tesla had almost 50,000. So much for that super early head start.

It doesn't matter what you, I, or other people think about Elon Musk. But your claims are factually/numerically wrong. And if your opinion is that Tesla wasn't chiefly responsible for the acceptance and acceleration of EVs --- look at a global EV chart and where the inflections are --- then your opinion is wrong too.
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

hunoraut wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:17 pm It doesn't matter what you, I, or other people think about Elon Musk. But your claims are factually/numerically wrong. And if your opinion is that Tesla wasn't chiefly responsible for the acceptance and acceleration of EVs --- look at a global EV chart and where the inflections are --- then your opinion is wrong too.
Tesla is very good at making EVs acceptable to people who then go out and buy a Tesla. There are plenty of people around the world (i.e. mostly outside the US) who until rather recently (the last few years) had a hard time buying a Tesla. And yet those countries have HIGHER penetration of EVs into their markets than the US.

Curious, no?

Perhaps Tesla convinced RICH, mostly US people that EVs were cool, and that they wanted to get one. And the less rich people in the US got the mistaken impression that all EVs that weren't Tesla either didn't exist, didn't work, weren't cool, or are very expensive by association?

Whereas overseas (with generally higher gas prices and shorter driving distances) people were looking at their use cases and deciding that (non-Tesla) EVs made TCO sense a couple years before US folks did... and that had nothing to do with Tesla.

When a friend of mine recently told her Mom that I was buying an electric car, she (a normal middle class person who buys nice used cars) said 'How can he afford a Tesla?' and when she was informed that is was a Chevy she said, 'Well, its probably terrible and costs at least $60,000 dollars!' Then she explained to her daughter that it was super expensive to install a charger in your house, to which my friend told her I had done that DIY for $1000, in 2014. When I took her Mom for a test drive she was VERY impressed. She was even more impressed that the car cost $31,000 MSRP.

Tesla (forget Musk) is a for profit company that is very good at addressing the most profitable segment of the EV market, which has changed over time. Period. 10 years ago that was $100,000 cars, then $100,000 SUVs, then more recently $50-60,000 cars and $80,000 cross-overs. Good for them.

While this has scared the pants off the legacy makers (and spurred them to action), Tesla has done little to convince the majority of car buyers that affordable EVs exist and are desirable.

That said, the makers have had a decade to look at Tesla, teardown its vehicles, etc. And they all decided to scale at the same time (now). The timing has to do with the price of EV batteries, not anything that Tesla is doing in 2022. And even then, the legacy makers are using different battery chemistry and a different format from Tesla... which more closely resembles that fielded by Nissan, GM, and the Chinese makers over the last 10 years.
7eight9
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 7eight9 »

just frank wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:56 pm
hunoraut wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:17 pm It doesn't matter what you, I, or other people think about Elon Musk. But your claims are factually/numerically wrong. And if your opinion is that Tesla wasn't chiefly responsible for the acceptance and acceleration of EVs --- look at a global EV chart and where the inflections are --- then your opinion is wrong too.
Tesla is very good at making EVs acceptable to people who then go out and buy a Tesla. There are plenty of people around the world (i.e. mostly outside the US) who until rather recently (the last few years) had a hard time buying a Tesla. And yet those countries have HIGHER penetration of EVs into their markets than the US.

Curious, no?

Perhaps Tesla convinced RICH, mostly US people that EVs were cool, and that they wanted to get one. And the less rich people in the US got the mistaken impression that all EVs that weren't Tesla either didn't exist, didn't work, weren't cool, or are very expensive by association?

Whereas overseas (with generally higher gas prices and shorter driving distances) people were looking at their use cases and deciding that (non-Tesla) EVs made TCO sense a couple years before US folks did... and that had nothing to do with Tesla.

When a friend of mine recently told her Mom that I was buying an electric car, she (a normal middle class person who buys nice used cars) said 'How can he afford a Tesla?' and when she was informed that is was a Chevy she said, 'Well, its probably terrible and costs at least $60,000 dollars!' Then she explained to her daughter that it was super expensive to install a charger in your house, to which my friend told her I had done that DIY for $1000, in 2014. When I took her Mom for a test drive she was VERY impressed. She was even more impressed that the car cost $31,000 MSRP.

Tesla (forget Musk) is a for profit company that is very good at addressing the most profitable segment of the EV market, which has changed over time. Period. 10 years ago that was $100,000 cars, then $100,000 SUVs, then more recently $50-60,000 cars and $80,000 cross-overs. Good for them.

While this has scared the pants off the legacy makers (and spurred them to action), Tesla has done little to convince the majority of car buyers that affordable EVs exist and are desirable.

That said, the makers have had a decade to look at Tesla, teardown its vehicles, etc. And they all decided to scale at the same time (now). The timing has to do with the price of EV batteries, not anything that Tesla is doing in 2022. And even then, the legacy makers are using different battery chemistry and a different format from Tesla... which more closely resembles that fielded by Nissan, GM, and the Chinese makers over the last 10 years.
For those who are not DIY inclined to install a Level 2 charger themselves, do you think that Carvana's numbers below are accurate?

The Level 2 charger goes a bit higher, with the cost increased to between $500 and $700 and labor costing about $1,200 to $2,000.
https://blog.carvana.com/2021/07/how-mu ... 2450%2C000.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

7eight9 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:09 pm For those who are not DIY inclined to install a Level 2 charger themselves, do you think that Carvana's numbers below are accurate?

The Level 2 charger goes a bit higher, with the cost increased to between $500 and $700 and labor costing about $1,200 to $2,000.
https://blog.carvana.com/2021/07/how-mu ... 2450%2C000.
If you have space in your breaker box (usually this means a 200A or larger service, read the main breaker switch) and have an easy run from the box to your EVSE location (like your breaker box is in the garage) the equipment will be $500-$700 and the labor will be a 1-2 hours, which I assume is less than $1200.

More difficult installs will require more labor time.
neilpilot
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by neilpilot »

7eight9 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:09 pm
just frank wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:56 pm
hunoraut wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:17 pm It doesn't matter what you, I, or other people think about Elon Musk. But your claims are factually/numerically wrong. And if your opinion is that Tesla wasn't chiefly responsible for the acceptance and acceleration of EVs --- look at a global EV chart and where the inflections are --- then your opinion is wrong too.
Tesla is very good at making EVs acceptable to people who then go out and buy a Tesla. There are plenty of people around the world (i.e. mostly outside the US) who until rather recently (the last few years) had a hard time buying a Tesla. And yet those countries have HIGHER penetration of EVs into their markets than the US.

Curious, no?

Perhaps Tesla convinced RICH, mostly US people that EVs were cool, and that they wanted to get one. And the less rich people in the US got the mistaken impression that all EVs that weren't Tesla either didn't exist, didn't work, weren't cool, or are very expensive by association?

Whereas overseas (with generally higher gas prices and shorter driving distances) people were looking at their use cases and deciding that (non-Tesla) EVs made TCO sense a couple years before US folks did... and that had nothing to do with Tesla.

When a friend of mine recently told her Mom that I was buying an electric car, she (a normal middle class person who buys nice used cars) said 'How can he afford a Tesla?' and when she was informed that is was a Chevy she said, 'Well, its probably terrible and costs at least $60,000 dollars!' Then she explained to her daughter that it was super expensive to install a charger in your house, to which my friend told her I had done that DIY for $1000, in 2014. When I took her Mom for a test drive she was VERY impressed. She was even more impressed that the car cost $31,000 MSRP.

Tesla (forget Musk) is a for profit company that is very good at addressing the most profitable segment of the EV market, which has changed over time. Period. 10 years ago that was $100,000 cars, then $100,000 SUVs, then more recently $50-60,000 cars and $80,000 cross-overs. Good for them.

While this has scared the pants off the legacy makers (and spurred them to action), Tesla has done little to convince the majority of car buyers that affordable EVs exist and are desirable.

That said, the makers have had a decade to look at Tesla, teardown its vehicles, etc. And they all decided to scale at the same time (now). The timing has to do with the price of EV batteries, not anything that Tesla is doing in 2022. And even then, the legacy makers are using different battery chemistry and a different format from Tesla... which more closely resembles that fielded by Nissan, GM, and the Chinese makers over the last 10 years.
For those who are not DIY inclined to install a Level 2 charger themselves, do you think that Carvana's numbers below are accurate?

The Level 2 charger goes a bit higher, with the cost increased to between $500 and $700 and labor costing about $1,200 to $2,000.
https://blog.carvana.com/2021/07/how-mu ... 2450%2C000.
There are many factors that will greatly effect the cost of a L2, including but not limited to if you can use a plain-Jane charger or need programming and/or internet connectivity, where your service box or existing circuits are relative to your garage, and if you really need the highest amperage possible.

In my case I bought a simple evse that cost $330. I installed a 240v/30amp socket on a branch of an existing dryer circuit I diyed for under $100 in parts (if I had hired and electrician it would have cost another $450). So $430-$880 total, parts & labor.
mervinj7
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by mervinj7 »

gougou wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:16 am
mervinj7 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:35 am I was only half joking earlier. Have you considered solar? In terms of usage, last month was also a peak month for us with work at home, high AC usage, and predominantly using our EV for trips. However, our electricity bill was still less than $10.
So now you need to spend an extra 10s of thousands dollars to make your own fuel if you want to buy an EV? That’s not cheap at all. Maybe I want to put my 10s of thousands dollars in VTI instead.
The solar is to offset the increasing costs of electricity (with or without an EV). See my detailed post for my real world experience.

viewtopic.php?t=291738
PrestonSea
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by PrestonSea »

just frank wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:25 pm
7eight9 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:09 pm For those who are not DIY inclined to install a Level 2 charger themselves, do you think that Carvana's numbers below are accurate?

The Level 2 charger goes a bit higher, with the cost increased to between $500 and $700 and labor costing about $1,200 to $2,000.
https://blog.carvana.com/2021/07/how-mu ... 2450%2C000.
If you have space in your breaker box (usually this means a 200A or larger service, read the main breaker switch) and have an easy run from the box to your EVSE location (like your breaker box is in the garage) the equipment will be $500-$700 and the labor will be a 1-2 hours, which I assume is less than $1200.

More difficult installs will require more labor time.
Mine was $450 for a grizzl-e box and $500 for the electrician. It just required a new connection to the circuit box as we had sufficient available capacity. The run of the new wires was only about 5 feet. I would imagine this would be on the low end.
JDave
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by JDave »

Leesbro63 wrote: Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:04 am
stoptothink wrote: Sat Jul 30, 2022 9:44 am
uaeebs86 wrote: Sat Jul 30, 2022 9:32 am The maintenance costs will be much higher for the ICE yearly during the years you are analyzing, but there will be a large cost at some point (8 - 12 years, 100-200K miles?) for the EV to replace the batteries.
There's a lot of fear-mongering about replacing batteries. The large majority of hybrid and EV owners will have moved onto a new car before they ever replace a battery. A friend of mine recently replaced the battery in his prius (first time, at ~280k miles) and total it was ~$2k (refurbished).
Yes but as cars move down the food chain (first owner keeps a car 3 years, then the car is acquired by the person who buys "nearly new", then the car is acquired by the budget minded family, then the car is acquired by the college kid), the depreciation of that battery is real. Good ICE cars, like Honda and Toyota, can run 400,000 miles without a major repair. Will an hybrid Toyota run that long without needing a costly battery?
JDave
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by JDave »

It may IF the battery cooling fan filter is kept clean. Heat is the enemy of hybrid batteries, so there is air blown by a fan to cool the battery. There is a filter to prevent the air passages clogging up with dust - find out where that filter is, and how to clean it if you want your battery to last.
gougou
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by gougou »

mervinj7 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:55 pm
gougou wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:16 am
mervinj7 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:35 am I was only half joking earlier. Have you considered solar? In terms of usage, last month was also a peak month for us with work at home, high AC usage, and predominantly using our EV for trips. However, our electricity bill was still less than $10.
So now you need to spend an extra 10s of thousands dollars to make your own fuel if you want to buy an EV? That’s not cheap at all. Maybe I want to put my 10s of thousands dollars in VTI instead.
The solar is to offset the increasing costs of electricity (with or without an EV). See my detailed post for my real world experience.

viewtopic.php?t=291738
The solar system by itself may or may not make sense financially depending on many factors.

And it’s not like you get free electricity to charge your car if you get solar. You still need to pay for the extra electricity you used to charge your EV. So solar is irrelevant to the discussion.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
hunoraut
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by hunoraut »

just frank wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:56 pm Tesla is very good at making EVs acceptable to people who then go out and buy a Tesla. There are plenty of people around the world (i.e. mostly outside the US) who until rather recently (the last few years) had a hard time buying a Tesla. And yet those countries have HIGHER penetration of EVs into their markets than the US.

Curious, no?

Perhaps Tesla convinced RICH, mostly US people that EVs were cool, and that they wanted to get one. And the less rich people in the US got the mistaken impression that all EVs that weren't Tesla either didn't exist, didn't work, weren't cool, or are very expensive by association?

Whereas overseas (with generally higher gas prices and shorter driving distances) people were looking at their use cases and deciding that (non-Tesla) EVs made TCO sense a couple years before US folks did... and that had nothing to do with Tesla.
As I said, electric cars have been available for decades. There have always been customers for them.

But the car and brand that brings them into the mainstream, the one that is synonymous with electric cars? And is it because they have the loudest CEO in business? maybe.

But what about having the best selling model every year for the last 7 years or so? The #1 most sold model of all time? Cumulatively most sales of all time? Might that have a little to do with it?

Also, all these countries with higher gas prices and shorter driving distances... have had Tesla as top seller for last 2 years, and projected onwards
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

gougou wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 4:18 pm
mervinj7 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:55 pm
gougou wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:16 am
mervinj7 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:35 am I was only half joking earlier. Have you considered solar? In terms of usage, last month was also a peak month for us with work at home, high AC usage, and predominantly using our EV for trips. However, our electricity bill was still less than $10.
So now you need to spend an extra 10s of thousands dollars to make your own fuel if you want to buy an EV? That’s not cheap at all. Maybe I want to put my 10s of thousands dollars in VTI instead.
The solar is to offset the increasing costs of electricity (with or without an EV). See my detailed post for my real world experience.

viewtopic.php?t=291738
The solar system by itself may or may not make sense financially depending on many factors.

And it’s not like you get free electricity to charge your car if you get solar. You still need to pay for the extra electricity you used to charge your EV. So solar is irrelevant to the discussion.
This isn't quite true. If solar makes sense financially otherwise, the cost differential for charging an EV can be calculated by the cost to upsize the solar system to account for the energy the EV would use. For example, an efficient EV that is driven 10,000 miles per year and gets close to 4 miles/kWh (roughly the efficiency of the base Model 3) would require installing 1.75 kW of additional solar that gets an average of 4 hours of direct sunlight daily. Since these are on top of an existing install, the price differential should be minimal for other parts/labor and mostly depend on the price of the additional panels themselves, say about $2.50/W for a total additive price of $4375. Since those panels will produce electricity for 20+ years, longer than the life of the car, the yearly fueling cost of upsizing solar for an EV for 20 years in this example would be around $220/year or $0.02/mile (my Civic costs $0.10/mile for gas at $4/gallon and ~40 mpg, so this is pretty cheap even compared to an efficient ICE). Anything you charge off the solar panels after 20 years would be, for all intents and purposes, "free" in this example.
billaster
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

neilpilot wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:35 pm There are many factors that will greatly effect the cost of a L2, including but not limited to if you can use a plain-Jane charger or need programming and/or internet connectivity, where your service box or existing circuits are relative to your garage, and if you really need the highest amperage possible.

In my case I bought a simple evse that cost $330. I installed a 240v/30amp socket on a branch of an existing dryer circuit I diyed for under $100 in parts (if I had hired and electrician it would have cost another $450). So $430-$880 total, parts & labor.
As you said, the cost of Level 2 installation depends on what bells and whistles you want. Technically, it's not a battery charger. The battery charger is in your car that converts AC to DC. It's an EVSE (Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment).

At heart, its nothing but a remote power switch. The car tells the EVSE to switch on the AC power and the car tells the EVSE to switch off the AC power. That's all. The most expensive parts are the J1772 car connector and the copper cable. The electrics in the EVSE are just electrical relays and a 50 cent microcontroller to talk to the car, plus some miscellaneous circuit monitors.

You can get a bare bones EVSE for about $150. Then you need a wall socket to plug it into. That can cost zero if you happen to have a 240V outlet in your garage. Or it can require some electrical work to install a new 240V outlet. That cost is variable depending on complexity.
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

hunoraut wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 4:41 pm
just frank wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:56 pm Tesla is very good at making EVs acceptable to people who then go out and buy a Tesla. There are plenty of people around the world (i.e. mostly outside the US) who until rather recently (the last few years) had a hard time buying a Tesla. And yet those countries have HIGHER penetration of EVs into their markets than the US.

Curious, no?

Perhaps Tesla convinced RICH, mostly US people that EVs were cool, and that they wanted to get one. And the less rich people in the US got the mistaken impression that all EVs that weren't Tesla either didn't exist, didn't work, weren't cool, or are very expensive by association?

Whereas overseas (with generally higher gas prices and shorter driving distances) people were looking at their use cases and deciding that (non-Tesla) EVs made TCO sense a couple years before US folks did... and that had nothing to do with Tesla.
As I said, electric cars have been available for decades. There have always been customers for them.

But the car and brand that brings them into the mainstream, the one that is synonymous with electric cars? And is it because they have the loudest CEO in business? maybe.

But what about having the best selling model every year for the last 7 years or so? The #1 most sold model of all time? Cumulatively most sales of all time? Might that have a little to do with it?

Also, all these countries with higher gas prices and shorter driving distances... have had Tesla as top seller for last 2 years, and projected onwards
Yeah. I get that people like Teslas. Especially people who have decided to buy them. Notably, Tesla has not yet produced any entry-level vehicles for the marketplace. Nor have they announced plans to do that.

You're saying 'available for decades' like there was this great EV tech out there that no one was developing until Elon disrupted the market and forced all the legacy makers to take notice and switch. I have heard that story before. From a lot of Tesla owners.

The fact is that EVs taking over light vehicles (which is still just getting started) is not happening bc Tesla has some new product launch, or hit some sales figure or invented some magic tech and gave it away for free (I have heard all these stories)... its bc the price of lithium EV batteries has fallen to the point that an EV drivetrain (with >250 miles range) in an economy car is now cheaper on a TCO than an ICE economy car. Period. That has never happened in the past, its happening now, so everyone is getting in.

There was a market opportunity in the luxury segment that opened a few years ago, bc a high battery price is easier to swallow in that segment. Tesla found and exploited and scaled EVs in that (luxury) market, without touching the economy market. Did that get some other luxury makers like Audi and BMW to get in sooner? Sure.

Meanwhile in the mass-market economy end of things, lots of makers sold 'beta' vehicles (to gain engineering experience) at a production level that could be supported by incentives and emission credits. And Tesla sold NOTHING in the economy market.

Obv where I'm going is that the economy market is much bigger than the luxury market in terms of total units sold. If the legacy makers switch their light vehicles to 100% EVs and Tesla doesn't enter that market, they will end up with a small share of the final marketplace. (and perhaps a larger share of total profits) Debating how Tesla would do competing on margins for economy BEVs... not interested, bc its purely hypothetical until they plan (yet alone build) such a vehicle.
MGBMartin
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by MGBMartin »

Wasn’t the Tesla Model 3 target price $30,000 but ended up starting at $35,000 in 2019 but by 2020 they stopped selling the base model at $35,000. And, I seem to remember Musk promising a Tesla model for $25,000 in 3 years.

On another note.
Here’s a read from Yale Climate Connections about efficiency of EV vs ICE.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022 ... of-energy/
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Californiastate
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Californiastate »

Why is Musk selling TSLA shares if it's future is so bright? I've heard some say that the Twitter offer was just a covert way to sell more TSLA shares.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

Californiastate wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 10:43 am Why is Musk selling TSLA shares if it's future is so bright? I've heard some say that the Twitter offer was just a covert way to sell more TSLA shares.
About 6 months before the dot com boom peaked, Jupiter or one of the other big industry analyst firms published forecasts of the size of the internet in terms of users, ecommerce etc, for 2010. They were widely felt to be "on the high side"

In actual fact, the actual takeup of the internet was 50% above what Jupiter had predicted. Ecommerce size etc. Companies like Amazon kept growing. Google and Facebook were founded etc.

The internet happened.

The stocks? Dire performance. You lost about 80% of your money. HP, Cisco. Yahoo. AOL Time Warner. Dogs. Even Amazon & Microsoft you took a lot longer to make your money back.

(the estimates for mobile access to the internet attracted even greater scepticism. Again once the mobile internet took off, its usage far exceeded forecasts).

The lesson?

- stocks are not the underlying demand for the product
- it's very hard to pick winners & losers. New entrants will emerge to any fast growing industry and take over leadership

So Musk?

- the valuation of Tesla, being more than the rest of the world's car companies, was outlandish
- if there are roadblocks ahead, Musk will see them before anyone else, and he's been an adroit seller of stock
- lots of people prognosticate on the Twitter bid. My view is he saw an opportunity to get a wider platform. What do you do if you are the world's richest man? But he's also quite sensitive to price, and random in his tactics. None of that is inconsistent with a desire for him to diversify his wealth away from Tesla stock

I don't think Tesla will be the majority of EVs sold in the world, in 5 years time. But, I have underestimated Musk & Tesla before.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by hunoraut »

just frank wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:09 am You're saying 'available for decades' like there was this great EV tech out there that no one was developing until Elon disrupted the market and forced all the legacy makers to take notice and switch. I have heard that story before. From a lot of Tesla owners.

The fact is that EVs taking over light vehicles (which is still just getting started) is not happening bc Tesla has some new product launch, or hit some sales figure or invented some magic tech and gave it away for free (I have heard all these stories)... its bc the price of lithium EV batteries has fallen to the point that an EV drivetrain (with >250 miles range) in an economy car is now cheaper on a TCO than an ICE economy car. Period. That has never happened in the past, its happening now, so everyone is getting in.

Meanwhile in the mass-market economy end of things, lots of makers sold 'beta' vehicles (to gain engineering experience) at a production level that could be supported by incentives and emission credits. And Tesla sold NOTHING in the economy market.

Obv where I'm going is that the economy market is much bigger than the luxury market in terms of total units sold. If the legacy makers switch their light vehicles to 100% EVs and Tesla doesn't enter that market, they will end up with a small share of the final marketplace. (and perhaps a larger share of total profits) Debating how Tesla would do competing on margins for economy BEVs... not interested, bc its purely hypothetical until they plan (yet alone build) such a vehicle.
Im not saying anything about who forced what and what are margins on economic BEVs.

Youre saying BEVs are gaining traction now because battery prices have become more economical. That battery market was available to everyone and people werent exactly buying iPace and i3s in droves. At this current level of battery pricing, Teslas are still outselling their competitors whether Mach E or Polestar 2 or eTron.

In the public consciousness, electric cars are synonymous with Teslas. Is that fair? Doesnt matter. Are they good, bad, desirable, detestible, fast, slow? That opinion is shaped by the opinion of Tesla.

In mid -late1990s I had a 16mb portable MP3 player. Did I and a few other nerds and the Diamond Multimedia company prove viability of DAPs and kill the CD player. And after the 2.5” drive based iPod came out, because those drives were cheap enough, I bought an economical alternate version from Creative Labs instead. Did we kill the CD player?

No, the iPod was the one that my dad, my sibling, my uncle bought. Its the one that made the public realize was a more convenient form of portable music.

Being long first or marginally first doesnt matter. Being the vastly more popular one that catches on with the public does.

***

And as to what was the “real” reason Elon sold some stocks recently? Well, last I checked the public statements, he still has something like $130B of equity in Tesla, which about more than the total assets of the next wealthiest person in the world. So whatever your answer is to that question, does it jive with that fact?
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

hunoraut wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 12:41 pm Im not saying anything about who forced what and what are margins on economic BEVs.

Youre saying BEVs are gaining traction now because battery prices have become more economical. That battery market was available to everyone and people werent exactly buying iPace and i3s in droves. At this current level of battery pricing, Teslas are still outselling their competitors whether Mach E or Polestar 2 or eTron.

In the public consciousness, electric cars are synonymous with Teslas. Is that fair? Doesnt matter. Are they good, bad, desirable, detestible, fast, slow? That opinion is shaped by the opinion of Tesla.

In mid -late1990s I had a 16mb portable MP3 player. Did I and a few other nerds and the Diamond Multimedia company prove viability of DAPs and kill the CD player. And after the 2.5” drive based iPod came out, because those drives were cheap enough, I bought an economical alternate version from Creative Labs instead. Did we kill the CD player?

No, the iPod was the one that my dad, my sibling, my uncle bought. Its the one that made the public realize was a more convenient form of portable music.

Being long first or marginally first doesnt matter. Being the vastly more popular one that catches on with the public does.
Now we're getting somewhere, and I like your example a lot.

Digital devices like MP3 players and the iPod, replaced CDs not bc some innovator had a great idea. When CDs were developed HDs and NVRAMs were waaay more expensive than CDs per Mb stored. It was technically possible to build those devices for some years before they took off, but they would've been small capacity and super expensive. But ofc, as progress occurred, at a predicable price point, a lot of makers started to release digital music players. Apple did a great job with their engineering and marketing, and totally dominated the early and later market with iPod. And their product had a 'sheen' about it that commanded a 20+% higher price than corresponding competitors, which Apple got to pocket (and spend on engineering).

But now, no one has an iPod. We all stream stuff off our smart phones. Ofc, Apple introduced the iPhone in 2007, with excellent engineering and marketing. When I saw the first iPhone in 2007, I laughed out loud... bc it was basically just an updated, smaller Newton, which I had owned many years before, but benefitting from years of improvements in batteries, displays and wireless tech. But I digress...

Nowadays, Apple is making a ton of money on iPhone, and rode it to be one of the most valuable companies on earth. Fifteen years later, iPhones still have a 'sheen' and command a 20+% higher price than competitors with similar features. That said, other high-end electronics makers do compete with them (notably Samsung) even at the high end. And there are a ton of other makers of (mostly Android) smartphones cover the low price end of the market (Apple sells at the low end, but it mostly ends up with kids of iPhone parents IMO).

Did Apple invent the smart phone? What about the Blackberry? I think Apple's abrupt 'creation' of iPhone is bc of their experience with Newton (iOS did reuse some software from Newton). So Newton was a HUGE loss leader, which nearly bankrupted the company, bc it was ahead of what could be achieved with the existing tech, but set Apple up to dominate later.

No matter, the tech was widely available, so non-Apple smartphones appeared at scale shortly after 2007 and were hugely successful as well.

---------------

As for EVs, I expect Tesla to still dominate in the luxury EV segment, especially in the US 10 or 20 years from now. And to command a higher price than other brands, and to retain its sheen (with EV product metric/features we can barely imagine today). And a multi $trilion valuation. They will be successful overseas as well, but will have high end competition in some markets (like how Samsung dominates Apple in S Korea, I expect the Germans will prefer their local Tesla clones).

But for the average man or woman on the street, they will buy much cheaper (and less capable) non-Tesla EVs in much larger numbers from the surviving former makers of ICE cars and trucks (some late adopters, Toyota?, will go the way of Nokia and the 'Zune').
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by RCL »

So, many EV models have been mentioned in this thread.....
Can any EV carry at least two people and two golf bags and assorted other golf equipment (golf shoes, pull carts etc.)?

Are any of these available?
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by oxothuk »

RCL wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 1:42 pm So, many EV models have been mentioned in this thread.....
Can any EV carry at least two people and two golf bags and assorted other golf equipment (golf shoes, pull carts etc.)?

Are any of these available?
Any EV except the very smallest ones (e.g., Chevy Spark) should be capable of that. Wouldn't be a problem for my Leaf, with the rear seats folded down.

Hmm. Maybe it depends on the size of those pull carts....
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 7eight9 »

Not all EV owners are enchanted with their cars. In California one in five go back to an ICE car. I wonder if that number is even higher in other states.

For the market share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to continue to grow and reach 100% of new vehicle sales, adopters of the technology, who initially buy PEVs, will need to continue choosing them in subsequent purchases. Although much research has focused on the reasons for, and barriers to, initial PEV purchase, less has been devoted to the reasons for discontinuance—abandoning a new technology after first purchasing it. Here, on the basis of results from five questionnaire surveys, we find that PEV discontinuance in California occurs at a rate of 20% for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle owners and 18% for battery electric vehicle owners. We show that discontinuance is related to dissatisfaction with the convenience of charging, having other vehicles in the household that are less efficient, not having level 2 (240-volt) charging at home, having fewer household vehicles and not being male.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00814-9

I'm not in California but based on my experience with my current 2022 Nissan Leaf S I won't be buying another EV.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by jmw »

I was a first owner Ford PHEV before it was totaled in an accident this year. It lasted 9 years. Even after the tax credit, California HOV sticker that lasted 7 years, utility rebate, lemon law settlement (a lot of things broke or were substandard and I hired a lemon law lawyer), a random check from Ford for false MPG numbers, and fuel savings, it wasn't worth it. The depreciation was massive vs. all of my used Toyota junkers. It did have a huge jump in valuation from 2019 to 2022 when it was totaled, but I consider that dumb luck because it would have been really bad without a pandemic.

I already purchased another car and it's not an EV of any kind nor is it new. I picked a true Boglehead ICE car that is 12 years old.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:03 pm Not all EV owners are enchanted with their cars. In California one in five go back to an ICE car. I wonder if that number is even higher in other states.

For the market share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to continue to grow and reach 100% of new vehicle sales, adopters of the technology, who initially buy PEVs, will need to continue choosing them in subsequent purchases. Although much research has focused on the reasons for, and barriers to, initial PEV purchase, less has been devoted to the reasons for discontinuance—abandoning a new technology after first purchasing it. Here, on the basis of results from five questionnaire surveys, we find that PEV discontinuance in California occurs at a rate of 20% for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle owners and 18% for battery electric vehicle owners. We show that discontinuance is related to dissatisfaction with the convenience of charging, having other vehicles in the household that are less efficient, not having level 2 (240-volt) charging at home, having fewer household vehicles and not being male.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00814-9

I'm not in California but based on my experience with my current 2022 Nissan Leaf S I won't be buying another EV.
The authors seem to have identified some possible problems that may be relevant in your case.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 7eight9 »

just frank wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:47 pm
7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:03 pm Not all EV owners are enchanted with their cars. In California one in five go back to an ICE car. I wonder if that number is even higher in other states.

For the market share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to continue to grow and reach 100% of new vehicle sales, adopters of the technology, who initially buy PEVs, will need to continue choosing them in subsequent purchases. Although much research has focused on the reasons for, and barriers to, initial PEV purchase, less has been devoted to the reasons for discontinuance—abandoning a new technology after first purchasing it. Here, on the basis of results from five questionnaire surveys, we find that PEV discontinuance in California occurs at a rate of 20% for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle owners and 18% for battery electric vehicle owners. We show that discontinuance is related to dissatisfaction with the convenience of charging, having other vehicles in the household that are less efficient, not having level 2 (240-volt) charging at home, having fewer household vehicles and not being male.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00814-9

I'm not in California but based on my experience with my current 2022 Nissan Leaf S I won't be buying another EV.
The authors seem to have identified a possible problem that may be relevant in your case.
I'm thinking it is more the text in red. Charge 6x or get gas 1x. I know which I prefer.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:03 pm In California one in five go back to an ICE car. I wonder if that number is even higher in other states.
The study results are about what you would expect. The biggest factors for discontinuing EV ownership are lack of charging at home (likely apartment dwellers) and lack of Level 2 charging. Charging convenience will always be a factor for EVs.

That is why I do not recommend buying an EV at this time if you do not have a convenient way to charge at home, preferably Level 2. For those able to do so, the convenience of charging at home is a big selling point for EVs.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by MillennialFinance19 »

So my wife and I have been shopping for a new fuel-efficient SUV for about 6 months. No, not looking at EVs specifically, but hybrids and plug-in hybrids came into the picture. After looking at the Toyota RAV4 Prime, 2023 Lexus RX500h+ (?), and some others, we ended up ordering a Ford Escape Plug-In Hybrid. Considering my wife drives about 15 miles per day, the 38 mile range should last 2 days or so. Per our calculations, our annual charging cost at home will be less than $100. We estimate filling the car up with gas every 3 months.

Price: MSRP $42k
Dealer Incentives: $2k off of MSRP
Tax Credit: $7k
Potential Trade: $14k

Total Cost before TTL: $19k

The Ford Escape isn't really a car to "get excited" about, but it should serve it's purpose for the next several years.
VTI and chill until 57...
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

MillennialFinance19 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 3:19 pm So my wife and I have been shopping for a new fuel-efficient SUV for about 6 months. No, not looking at EVs specifically, but hybrids and plug-in hybrids came into the picture. After looking at the Toyota RAV4 Prime, 2023 Lexus RX500h+ (?), and some others, we ended up ordering a Ford Escape Plug-In Hybrid. Considering my wife drives about 15 miles per day, the 38 mile range should last 2 days or so. Per our calculations, our annual charging cost at home will be less than $100. We estimate filling the car up with gas every 3 months.

The Ford Escape isn't really a car to "get excited" about, but it should serve it's purpose for the next several years.
As the owner of a PHEV with a 38 mile range, I would suggest
(1) that you follow the ABC rule (Always Be Charging)... just plug it every time you are parking it for the night. No thought required.
(2) that you invest in an inexpensive (12 or 16 amp), 240V charger/EVSE (available for $150), assuming you can get a 240V 20A outlet installed cheaply. This will allow full recharging in a few hours, rather than overnight, and allow more electric miles to be used on days with longer errands in the morning and the evening.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by oxothuk »

7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:50 pm I'm thinking it is more the text in red. Charge 6x or get gas 1x. I know which I prefer.
Or charge at home while I'm sleeping. Takes even less of my time than getting gas.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 7eight9 »

oxothuk wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 4:48 pm
7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:50 pm I'm thinking it is more the text in red. Charge 6x or get gas 1x. I know which I prefer.
Or charge at home while I'm sleeping. Takes even less of my time than getting gas.
I am charging at home. Just tired of having to constantly plug the car in. Forget to plug it in and maybe the next day there isn't enough in the tank to make it to work and back. Forget to fill up the ICE car? No problem - just stop by any station on the way to work and in a couple of minutes have a 400-500 mile range again.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by randomguy »

7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:50 pm

I'm thinking it is more the text in red. Charge 6x or get gas 1x. I know which I prefer.
Charging 6x and it isn't even close. Who would pick spending 10 mins to find a gas station and stand out there in the elements versus spending 30s to plug your car in and out every 3rd day or so....

Honestly 20% seems pretty darn low. That is type of number I expect to see from general life changes (sedan->SUV->Pick up->mid life crisis car->CUV) and there are whole niches where EVs are borderline right now.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 7eight9 »

randomguy wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:28 pm
7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:50 pm

I'm thinking it is more the text in red. Charge 6x or get gas 1x. I know which I prefer.
Charging 6x and it isn't even close. Who would pick spending 10 mins to find a gas station and stand out there in the elements versus spending 30s to plug your car in and out every 3rd day or so....

Honestly 20% seems pretty darn low. That is type of number I expect to see from general life changes (sedan->SUV->Pick up->mid life crisis car->CUV) and there are whole niches where EVs are borderline right now.
I pass multiple gas stations on the way to and from work every day. At my station of choice there are 12 pumps. I've never had to wait for one. In fact, most of the time I use the same pump. The pumps are covered so standing out in the elements is not an issue. It doesn't take 10 minutes from start to finish to fill a car with gas. I'll take that any day of the week over dealing with constantly charging my EV.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:38 pm
randomguy wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:28 pm
7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:50 pm

I'm thinking it is more the text in red. Charge 6x or get gas 1x. I know which I prefer.
Charging 6x and it isn't even close. Who would pick spending 10 mins to find a gas station and stand out there in the elements versus spending 30s to plug your car in and out every 3rd day or so....

Honestly 20% seems pretty darn low. That is type of number I expect to see from general life changes (sedan->SUV->Pick up->mid life crisis car->CUV) and there are whole niches where EVs are borderline right now.
I pass multiple gas stations on the way to and from work every day. At my station of choice there are 12 pumps. I've never had to wait for one. In fact, most of the time I use the same pump. The pumps are covered so standing out in the elements is not an issue. It doesn't take 10 minutes from start to finish to fill a car with gas. I'll take that any day of the week over dealing with constantly charging my EV.
I think we can all mutually agree that:

1) most people who can charge at home, especially those who have access to a level 2 EVSE, find charging at home to be cheaper and more convenient than filling up at a gas station, and

2) 7eight9 and some others do not find home EV charging to be more convenient for them than gas stations personally, and further discussion of people's personal preferences are unlikely to change them.

Sometimes people just don't like things, and that is ok. I don't like coffee, for example. No amount of impassioned or rational argument in favor of coffee will change that fact. I have to drive out of my way on my commute to reach a gas station and don't typically enjoy it, but I wouldn't try to convince someone else that they should similarly dislike it if they clearly state otherwise.

The time-cost analysis of home charging vs gas stations is relevant and actionable, but I think that has exhaustively been played out upthread.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by gougou »

cmr79 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:51 pm
7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:38 pm
randomguy wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:28 pm
7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:50 pm

I'm thinking it is more the text in red. Charge 6x or get gas 1x. I know which I prefer.
Charging 6x and it isn't even close. Who would pick spending 10 mins to find a gas station and stand out there in the elements versus spending 30s to plug your car in and out every 3rd day or so....

Honestly 20% seems pretty darn low. That is type of number I expect to see from general life changes (sedan->SUV->Pick up->mid life crisis car->CUV) and there are whole niches where EVs are borderline right now.
I pass multiple gas stations on the way to and from work every day. At my station of choice there are 12 pumps. I've never had to wait for one. In fact, most of the time I use the same pump. The pumps are covered so standing out in the elements is not an issue. It doesn't take 10 minutes from start to finish to fill a car with gas. I'll take that any day of the week over dealing with constantly charging my EV.
I think we can all mutually agree that:

1) most people who can charge at home, especially those who have access to a level 2 EVSE, find charging at home to be cheaper and more convenient than filling up at a gas station, and

2) 7eight9 and some others do not find home EV charging to be more convenient for them than gas stations personally, and further discussion of people's personal preferences are unlikely to change them.

Sometimes people just don't like things, and that is ok. I don't like coffee, for example. No amount of impassioned or rational argument in favor of coffee will change that fact. I have to drive out of my way on my commute to reach a gas station and don't typically enjoy it, but I wouldn't try to convince someone else that they should similarly dislike it if they clearly state otherwise.

The time-cost analysis of home charging vs gas stations is relevant and actionable, but I think that has exhaustively been played out upthread.
Refueling at gas station is a non-issue, until EV promoters came out and try to make it sound like an issue. But they are making a fool of themselves, because refueling at a gas station is infrequent, very convenient and takes little time.

Charging at home with a L2 charger is also a non-issue.

It’s rather irrelevant to even discuss these two non-issues.

However, both charging at home with a L1 charger and charging an EV during a roadtrip are huge PITA.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by gougou »

cmr79 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 5:12 pm
gougou wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 4:18 pm
mervinj7 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:55 pm
gougou wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:16 am
mervinj7 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:35 am I was only half joking earlier. Have you considered solar? In terms of usage, last month was also a peak month for us with work at home, high AC usage, and predominantly using our EV for trips. However, our electricity bill was still less than $10.
So now you need to spend an extra 10s of thousands dollars to make your own fuel if you want to buy an EV? That’s not cheap at all. Maybe I want to put my 10s of thousands dollars in VTI instead.
The solar is to offset the increasing costs of electricity (with or without an EV). See my detailed post for my real world experience.

viewtopic.php?t=291738
The solar system by itself may or may not make sense financially depending on many factors.

And it’s not like you get free electricity to charge your car if you get solar. You still need to pay for the extra electricity you used to charge your EV. So solar is irrelevant to the discussion.
This isn't quite true. If solar makes sense financially otherwise, the cost differential for charging an EV can be calculated by the cost to upsize the solar system to account for the energy the EV would use. For example, an efficient EV that is driven 10,000 miles per year and gets close to 4 miles/kWh (roughly the efficiency of the base Model 3) would require installing 1.75 kW of additional solar that gets an average of 4 hours of direct sunlight daily. Since these are on top of an existing install, the price differential should be minimal for other parts/labor and mostly depend on the price of the additional panels themselves, say about $2.50/W for a total additive price of $4375. Since those panels will produce electricity for 20+ years, longer than the life of the car, the yearly fueling cost of upsizing solar for an EV for 20 years in this example would be around $220/year or $0.02/mile (my Civic costs $0.10/mile for gas at $4/gallon and ~40 mpg, so this is pretty cheap even compared to an efficient ICE). Anything you charge off the solar panels after 20 years would be, for all intents and purposes, "free" in this example.
But you are not charging your EV when the sun is shining 12 to 4pm. You are charging it at night when the sun isn’t shining. So there’s no guarantee your extra power generation can be used to charge your EV, unless you buy an expensive battery system to store the electricity during the day and release it to charge your EV at night.

Your EV charging is dependent on what your utility company charges you at night, so it’s still irrelevant to your solar system.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by chipperd »

As a potential EV buyer, here's what I've learned on this thread:

1) When conditions are right for an EV, it's very good: acceleration, "fuel" costs, long term costs (in some cases very long term), maintenance costs

2) When conditions aren't right for an EV, it's very bad: charging time/convenience, range anxiety (real and imagined, both an issue esp with regards to weather conditions), may not recoup extra upfront costs.

3)Tesla is leading in the engineering/range issue at the luxury end, but others are catching up at the luxury end of the market (ie: Mercedes EQE at 70k and yea, anything over 40k is a luxury car IMO).

There are more, many more than this list so please, let go of augmenting the above. To many other posts to continue to go back and re read every 4th day or so.

This is just what one reader is taking from this exhaustive thread.

I'm sure I'll purchase one eventually, but at this time an EV isn't a cost effective, nor convenient, mode of transport for our needs.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

chipperd wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 5:31 am As a potential EV buyer, here's what I've learned on this thread:

1) When conditions are right for an EV, it's very good: acceleration, "fuel" costs, long term costs (in some cases very long term), maintenance costs

2) When conditions aren't right for an EV, it's very bad: charging time/convenience, range anxiety (real and imagined, both an issue esp with regards to weather conditions), may not recoup extra upfront costs.

3)Tesla is leading in the engineering/range issue at the luxury end, but others are catching up at the luxury end of the market (ie: Mercedes EQE at 70k and yea, anything over 40k is a luxury car IMO).

There are more, many more than this list so please, let go of augmenting the above. To many other posts to continue to go back and re read every 4th day or so.

This is just what one reader is taking from this exhaustive thread.

I'm sure I'll purchase one eventually, but at this time an EV isn't a cost effective, nor convenient, mode of transport for our needs.
I would add

- Different manufacturers are bringing different degrees of competency to this:

1. Tesla may be a leader in EV technology. However they have had major issues with Quality Control & Service (no spare parts in the system, long delays to get things fixed etc). Tesla as a company is running so fast that it never seems to catch up with these.

(I would add that I think Tesla's AV technology could be outright dangerous because it may lead to driver inattention. Horrific accidents because it does not recognise a pedestrian crossing etc. Coupled to that Teslas are high performance machines, heavy & so a driver not used to that could commit grievous errors.

That film clip of the guy stalled on the LA Freeway, where his Tesla wouldn't even allow him to reboot & unlock the wheels so the California Highway Patrol could shunt him to the side of the road ... that is terrifying.)

People love their Teslas-- and for good reason re performance (range as well as acceleration). But it's not for everyone.

2. there have been recalls (Toyota and Subaru?)

3. some of the models are downright clunky in terms of price-performance

It's a period of very rapid change. Perhaps as rapid as any since the ICE engine first won out against steam & electric propulsion (around 1910-14)?

It's also a global change. Many countries have good strategic reasons, not just environmental ones, to run faster on this than the USA-- which is one of the world's largest oil producers & consumers.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by stoptothink »

gougou wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:47 am
cmr79 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:51 pm
7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:38 pm
randomguy wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:28 pm
7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:50 pm

I'm thinking it is more the text in red. Charge 6x or get gas 1x. I know which I prefer.
Charging 6x and it isn't even close. Who would pick spending 10 mins to find a gas station and stand out there in the elements versus spending 30s to plug your car in and out every 3rd day or so....

Honestly 20% seems pretty darn low. That is type of number I expect to see from general life changes (sedan->SUV->Pick up->mid life crisis car->CUV) and there are whole niches where EVs are borderline right now.
I pass multiple gas stations on the way to and from work every day. At my station of choice there are 12 pumps. I've never had to wait for one. In fact, most of the time I use the same pump. The pumps are covered so standing out in the elements is not an issue. It doesn't take 10 minutes from start to finish to fill a car with gas. I'll take that any day of the week over dealing with constantly charging my EV.
I think we can all mutually agree that:

1) most people who can charge at home, especially those who have access to a level 2 EVSE, find charging at home to be cheaper and more convenient than filling up at a gas station, and

2) 7eight9 and some others do not find home EV charging to be more convenient for them than gas stations personally, and further discussion of people's personal preferences are unlikely to change them.

Sometimes people just don't like things, and that is ok. I don't like coffee, for example. No amount of impassioned or rational argument in favor of coffee will change that fact. I have to drive out of my way on my commute to reach a gas station and don't typically enjoy it, but I wouldn't try to convince someone else that they should similarly dislike it if they clearly state otherwise.

The time-cost analysis of home charging vs gas stations is relevant and actionable, but I think that has exhaustively been played out upthread.
Refueling at gas station is a non-issue, until EV promoters came out and try to make it sound like an issue. But they are making a fool of themselves, because refueling at a gas station is infrequent, very convenient and takes little time.

Charging at home with a L2 charger is also a non-issue.

It’s rather irrelevant to even discuss these two non-issues.

However, both charging at home with a L1 charger and charging an EV during a roadtrip are huge PITA.
This. Fueling either is a total non-issue in this discussion...except in the situation described in your last sentence. As someone who really likes EVs and will probably never buy another ICE vehicle, the "I smile when I drive past gas a station" posts make me roll my eyes.

Fueling just isn't even among the top-25 factors to consider for me, except that a very significant percentage of our driving is road-tripping. Obviously how we road-trip is going to be altered at some point - we'll live.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

For people who have never owned an EV, I offer the following analogies for EV charging at home...

1. Imagine your smart phone has enough battery life to last about 2 days. Would you use it for two days, keeping an eye on it charge level, and then, when it is nearly empty, stop to plug it in? Or would you just charge it every night on your nightstand? Would you do this every other day charging to eliminate the 10 seconds it takes you to plug and unplug the charger every other day? Ofc, some days you would run down your battery more, and then you'd might be caught with a low battery... Naw, you'd just plug it in every night.

2. Would you put away your phone charger, wrapping up the cable, and stashing it in a cabinet when not in use? Maybe the plug you use is behind the bed, so you also have to slide the bed back and forth every time you want to plug in your phone charger. This would add a minute or two (and some exertion) to the whole charging cycle, every day (or two) and be super annoying. Or would you figure out how to plug the charger in, snake the cable out of the way somehow, and leave the phone end dangling on your night-stand right where you would need it? Yeah, me too.

Would the complications of the above factor into your decision to get a smart phone? Nope.

3. Now imagine a counterfactual. Suppose you just spent $1000 to get a spiffy new smart phone with all the latest features. And the charger that comes with it takes 24-36 hours to charge it from empty! Yikes! If you don't use it too much, you can usually get it topped off in 12-18 hours per day, plugginng it in overnight and by having a second charger on your desk at work. But ouch. If you forget to plug it in, or have a high usage day, you have to not use the phone for 24 hours to 'catch up'. That would really stink. But ofc, the phone maker has a solution. For $150, you can get a charger in your house that charges the darned thing in 10 hours. Or for $200 you can get one that charges it in 5 hours. Oh, and the new faster charger will work with all your future phones that you buy for the next 20 years. And your spouse's smart phone.

Now you have to decide... would you 'cheap out' on your original $1000 purchase (and for the next 20 years) and skip the fast charger? Or would you get one? If you tried living with the slow charger 'just to see' before committing, and you HATED it, would you bite the bullet and get a fast charger, or would you return the smart phone and decide that a flip phone was just fine after all?

Point 3 is an issue... the case for no fast charger, a cheap fast charger or a very fast fast charger can all make sense depending on your usage and temperment.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

gougou wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:01 am
cmr79 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 5:12 pm
gougou wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 4:18 pm
mervinj7 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 3:55 pm
gougou wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:16 am
So now you need to spend an extra 10s of thousands dollars to make your own fuel if you want to buy an EV? That’s not cheap at all. Maybe I want to put my 10s of thousands dollars in VTI instead.
The solar is to offset the increasing costs of electricity (with or without an EV). See my detailed post for my real world experience.

viewtopic.php?t=291738
The solar system by itself may or may not make sense financially depending on many factors.

And it’s not like you get free electricity to charge your car if you get solar. You still need to pay for the extra electricity you used to charge your EV. So solar is irrelevant to the discussion.
This isn't quite true. If solar makes sense financially otherwise, the cost differential for charging an EV can be calculated by the cost to upsize the solar system to account for the energy the EV would use. For example, an efficient EV that is driven 10,000 miles per year and gets close to 4 miles/kWh (roughly the efficiency of the base Model 3) would require installing 1.75 kW of additional solar that gets an average of 4 hours of direct sunlight daily. Since these are on top of an existing install, the price differential should be minimal for other parts/labor and mostly depend on the price of the additional panels themselves, say about $2.50/W for a total additive price of $4375. Since those panels will produce electricity for 20+ years, longer than the life of the car, the yearly fueling cost of upsizing solar for an EV for 20 years in this example would be around $220/year or $0.02/mile (my Civic costs $0.10/mile for gas at $4/gallon and ~40 mpg, so this is pretty cheap even compared to an efficient ICE). Anything you charge off the solar panels after 20 years would be, for all intents and purposes, "free" in this example.
But you are not charging your EV when the sun is shining 12 to 4pm. You are charging it at night when the sun isn’t shining. So there’s no guarantee your extra power generation can be used to charge your EV, unless you buy an expensive battery system to store the electricity during the day and release it to charge your EV at night.

Your EV charging is dependent on what your utility company charges you at night, so it’s still irrelevant to your solar system.
This is only true if you:

1) Park your car somewhere other than home during daylight 7 days per week (Most solar systems are in the neighborhood of kW draw of a level 2 EVSE, most people's use is lower during mid-day vs evening. Electrons are fungible. If you are home for a few hours Sat-Sun daytime, you can probably charge an EV enough to cover most people's average driving during the entire week.) My guess would be that, since the last 2.5 years and rise in work from home, most people could find some daylight time where they are home to charge.

2) Don't have access to net metering. 3/4 of states have laws protecting net metering, and some of the others (notably Texas and Arizona) have net metering or electricity buyback programs that function similarly anyway.

3) Live in Northern Alaska. Anchorage gets 5.5 hours of sunlight on the Winter Solstice. Obviously that isn't all direct sunlight for the purposes of my example--some would argue that NO sunlight in Alaska is direct in winter--but it would generate PV electricity nonetheless, at a percentage of the panel's rated value.

Buying home storage batteries with the aim of storing solar during the day and charging your EV battery overnight is, in my opinion, stupid. Home storage batteries are expensive--much more than EV batteries on a cost/kWh basis--and you're multiplying storage-discharge losses. Having solar and an EV allows you to shift excess solar production during peak sunlight hours AWAY from the grid and into your EV battery when you're home for an end-use case that is ultimately more efficient than almost any other. But yes...if you live in Georgia (the worst state regarding net metering) and work away from home 7 days a week 18 hours a day, you're going to have difficulty getting your rooftop solar-generated electrons into your EV.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

just frank wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:04 am For people who have never owned an EV, I offer the following analogies for EV charging at home...

1. Imagine your smart phone has enough battery life to last about 2 days. Would you use it for two days, keeping an eye on it charge level, and then, when it is nearly empty, stop to plug it in? Or would you just charge it every night on your nightstand? Would you do this every other day charging to eliminate the 10 seconds it takes you to plug and unplug the charger every other day? Ofc, some days you would run down your battery more, and then you'd might be caught with a low battery... Naw, you'd just plug it in every night.

2. Would you put away your phone charger, wrapping up the cable, and stashing it in a cabinet when not in use? Maybe the plug you use is behind the bed, so you also have to slide the bed back and forth every time you want to plug in your phone charger. This would add a minute or two (and some exertion) to the whole charging cycle, every day (or two) and be super annoying. Or would you figure out how to plug the charger in, snake the cable out of the way somehow, and leave the phone end dangling on your night-stand right where you would need it? Yeah, me too.

Would the complications of the above factor into your decision to get a smart phone? Nope.

3. Now imagine a counterfactual. Suppose you just spent $1000 to get a spiffy new smart phone with all the latest features. And the charger that comes with it takes 24-36 hours to charge it from empty! Yikes! If you don't use it too much, you can usually get it topped off in 12-18 hours per day, plugginng it in overnight and by having a second charger on your desk at work. But ouch. If you forget to plug it in, or have a high usage day, you have to not use the phone for 24 hours to 'catch up'. That would really stink. But ofc, the phone maker has a solution. For $150, you can get a charger in your house that charges the darned thing in 10 hours. Or for $200 you can get one that charges it in 5 hours. Oh, and the new faster charger will work with all your future phones that you buy for the next 20 years. And your spouse's smart phone.

Now you have to decide... would you 'cheap out' on your original $1000 purchase (and for the next 20 years) and skip the fast charger? Or would you get one? If you tried living with the slow charger 'just to see' before committing, and you HATED it, would you bite the bullet and get a fast charger, or would you return the smart phone and decide that a flip phone was just fine after all?

Point 3 is an issue... the case for no fast charger, a cheap fast charger or a very fast fast charger can all make sense depending on your usage and temperment.
This is a really good example with one caveat...the spiffy new smartphone above would need a battery that lasts on average 7 days with "typical" use before being fully depleted if starting with a full charge.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 7eight9 »

just frank wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:04 am For people who have never owned an EV, I offer the following analogies for EV charging at home...

1. Imagine your smart phone has enough battery life to last about 2 days. Would you use it for two days, keeping an eye on it charge level, and then, when it is nearly empty, stop to plug it in? Or would you just charge it every night on your nightstand? Would you do this every other day charging to eliminate the 10 seconds it takes you to plug and unplug the charger every other day? Ofc, some days you would run down your battery more, and then you'd might be caught with a low battery... Naw, you'd just plug it in every night.

2. Would you put away your phone charger, wrapping up the cable, and stashing it in a cabinet when not in use? Maybe the plug you use is behind the bed, so you also have to slide the bed back and forth every time you want to plug in your phone charger. This would add a minute or two (and some exertion) to the whole charging cycle, every day (or two) and be super annoying. Or would you figure out how to plug the charger in, snake the cable out of the way somehow, and leave the phone end dangling on your night-stand right where you would need it? Yeah, me too.

Would the complications of the above factor into your decision to get a smart phone? Nope.

3. Now imagine a counterfactual. Suppose you just spent $1000 to get a spiffy new smart phone with all the latest features. And the charger that comes with it takes 24-36 hours to charge it from empty! Yikes! If you don't use it too much, you can usually get it topped off in 12-18 hours per day, plugginng it in overnight and by having a second charger on your desk at work. But ouch. If you forget to plug it in, or have a high usage day, you have to not use the phone for 24 hours to 'catch up'. That would really stink. But ofc, the phone maker has a solution. For $150, you can get a charger in your house that charges the darned thing in 10 hours. Or for $200 you can get one that charges it in 5 hours. Oh, and the new faster charger will work with all your future phones that you buy for the next 20 years. And your spouse's smart phone.

Now you have to decide... would you 'cheap out' on your original $1000 purchase (and for the next 20 years) and skip the fast charger? Or would you get one? If you tried living with the slow charger 'just to see' before committing, and you HATED it, would you bite the bullet and get a fast charger, or would you return the smart phone and decide that a flip phone was just fine after all?

Point 3 is an issue... the case for no fast charger, a cheap fast charger or a very fast fast charger can all make sense depending on your usage and temperment.
Maybe you would get rid of the new "smart" phone that required a charge every other day and get one that only has to be charged once every two weeks (and in less than 5 minutes at that).

And you would shake your head at the idea that one should have to buy a special charger that needs to be installed by an electrician for their phone (unless one is DIY inclined and likes to play with electricity).
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

7eight9 wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:22 am
just frank wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:04 am For people who have never owned an EV, I offer the following analogies for EV charging at home...

1. Imagine your smart phone has enough battery life to last about 2 days. Would you use it for two days, keeping an eye on it charge level, and then, when it is nearly empty, stop to plug it in? Or would you just charge it every night on your nightstand? Would you do this every other day charging to eliminate the 10 seconds it takes you to plug and unplug the charger every other day? Ofc, some days you would run down your battery more, and then you'd might be caught with a low battery... Naw, you'd just plug it in every night.

2. Would you put away your phone charger, wrapping up the cable, and stashing it in a cabinet when not in use? Maybe the plug you use is behind the bed, so you also have to slide the bed back and forth every time you want to plug in your phone charger. This would add a minute or two (and some exertion) to the whole charging cycle, every day (or two) and be super annoying. Or would you figure out how to plug the charger in, snake the cable out of the way somehow, and leave the phone end dangling on your night-stand right where you would need it? Yeah, me too.

Would the complications of the above factor into your decision to get a smart phone? Nope.

3. Now imagine a counterfactual. Suppose you just spent $1000 to get a spiffy new smart phone with all the latest features. And the charger that comes with it takes 24-36 hours to charge it from empty! Yikes! If you don't use it too much, you can usually get it topped off in 12-18 hours per day, plugginng it in overnight and by having a second charger on your desk at work. But ouch. If you forget to plug it in, or have a high usage day, you have to not use the phone for 24 hours to 'catch up'. That would really stink. But ofc, the phone maker has a solution. For $150, you can get a charger in your house that charges the darned thing in 10 hours. Or for $200 you can get one that charges it in 5 hours. Oh, and the new faster charger will work with all your future phones that you buy for the next 20 years. And your spouse's smart phone.

Now you have to decide... would you 'cheap out' on your original $1000 purchase (and for the next 20 years) and skip the fast charger? Or would you get one? If you tried living with the slow charger 'just to see' before committing, and you HATED it, would you bite the bullet and get a fast charger, or would you return the smart phone and decide that a flip phone was just fine after all?

Point 3 is an issue... the case for no fast charger, a cheap fast charger or a very fast fast charger can all make sense depending on your usage and temperment.
Maybe you would get rid of the new "smart" phone that required a charge every other day and get one that only has to be charged once every two weeks (and in less than 5 minutes at that).

And you would shake your head at the idea that one should have to buy a special charger that needs to be installed by an electrician for their phone (unless one is DIY inclined and likes to play with electricity).
Again, with the caveat that you would need to take your smart phone to one of many "smart phone charging stations" in your town and pay 8x as much to fully charge it vs charging it overnight as you slept. But with the benefit that you could relatively easily find those "smart phone charging stations" wherever you traveled, too, and wouldn't need to worry about bringing your own charger with you.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by mervinj7 »

7eight9 wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:22 am Maybe you would get rid of the new "smart" phone that required a charge every other day and get one that only has to be charged once every two weeks (and in less than 5 minutes at that).

And you would shake your head at the idea that one should have to buy a special charger that needs to be installed by an electrician for their phone (unless one is DIY inclined and likes to play with electricity).
Speaking of getting rid of it, did you get a quote from Carvana yet? Note, that if you do sell the car for more than purchase price, you do need to pay taxes on the amount above purchase.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Californiastate »

This thread has devolved into mainly bickering. All pertinent value and savings discussion has been exhausted pages ago.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 7eight9 »

Californiastate wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 9:48 am This thread has devolved into mainly bickering. All pertinent value and savings discussion has been exhausted pages ago.
I concur.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by LadyGeek »

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