Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

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j9j
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by j9j »

[/quote]

My East Bay townhome's value (in the tri-valley region) was around $850k in January of 2021 (I refinanced that month). It increased to about $1.4m by spring of 2022 - a 65% increase in just a bit over 1 year. According to recent comps as well as sites such as Zillow, it is down from that high point to approximately $1.2m today. This is about a 15% drop. The last couple of sellers in my neighborhood were (apparently) unwilling to lower the prices of their home so they took them off the market and decided to rent them out instead. I think rates are having an effect and wouldn't be surprised to see another 10% drop. Even if that additional 10% drop were to happen on top of the 15% decline that's already occurred, the price of my home would still be up 30% since the start of last year. It's been an insane real estate market alright, but we seem to be at least sort of coming back down to earth.
[/quote]

$850 to 1.4 in about an year. That is definitely bubble insane. Can’t even be justified with rate drops.
THY4373
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by THY4373 »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:39 pm
Thanks for your explanation. It is an excellent idea to get the comps of move-in ready houses then subtract the work needed & then some.

One issue that might arise is when the seller doesn't like a 50K cut off of their listing. Needing TLC is a legitimate reason, but they'd argue they already priced it at 450K instead of 500K.

I'm facing something similar in this market, where the sellers just don't accept deep cuts, as if they'd rather sit on the house unsold.
You are absolutely right I see two places where the sellers could argue with me. One is the comps as that is clearly as much an art as a science. Second of course is my estimate vs their estimate of what it will cost to bring the house up to snuff (my realtor said if he was flipping the place it would be $50k to refurb not counting the HVACs) so they are not that far off by that measure (to live there I'd want better than flipper quality). They could also be hoping that somebody comes along that is willing to put in the sweat equity to buy a place they could not otherwise afford. A decade or two ago I might have done that myself but today nah.

There is clearly no way they would consider my offer at less than seven days on the market (I certainly wouldn't if I was on the other side) so I am just going to see what happens to the place and if it is on the market in four weeks and/or I see a price drop then I'll consider making an offer. Else I'll wait till I find exactly what I am looking for as I am in no hurry (currently have 11 months remaining on my well below market lease).

And you are right real estate is sticky on the way down and it will come down to who blinks first the buyers or the sellers.
sandan
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by sandan »

j9j wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:14 pm

My East Bay townhome's value (in the tri-valley region) was around $850k in January of 2021 (I refinanced that month). It increased to about $1.4m by spring of 2022 - a 65% increase in just a bit over 1 year. According to recent comps as well as sites such as Zillow, it is down from that high point to approximately $1.2m today. This is about a 15% drop. The last couple of sellers in my neighborhood were (apparently) unwilling to lower the prices of their home so they took them off the market and decided to rent them out instead. I think rates are having an effect and wouldn't be surprised to see another 10% drop. Even if that additional 10% drop were to happen on top of the 15% decline that's already occurred, the price of my home would still be up 30% since the start of last year. It's been an insane real estate market alright, but we seem to be at least sort of coming back down to earth.

$850 to 1.4 in about an year. That is definitely bubble insane. Can’t even be justified with rate drops.
Those run ups are because of the rate increases + rent increases. Lots of folks shifted hard toward budget homes in 2022.
Marseille07
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by Marseille07 »

THY4373 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:17 pm You are absolutely right I see two places where the sellers could argue with me. One is the comps as that is clearly as much an art as a science. Second of course is my estimate vs their estimate of what it will cost to bring the house up to snuff (my realtor said if he was flipping the place it would be $50k to refurb not counting the HVACs) so they are not that far off by that measure (to live there I'd want better than flipper quality). They could also be hoping that somebody comes along that is willing to put in the sweat equity to buy a place they could not otherwise afford. A decade or two ago I might have done that myself but today nah.

There is clearly no way they would consider my offer at less than seven days on the market (I certainly wouldn't if I was on the other side) so I am just going to see what happens to the place and if it is on the market in four weeks and/or I see a price drop then I'll consider making an offer. Else I'll wait till I find exactly what I am looking for as I am in no hurry (currently have 11 months remaining on my well below market lease).

And you are right real estate is sticky on the way down and it will come down to who blinks first the buyers or the sellers.
Does your RE professional let you make lowball offers? Mine sometimes thinks my offer is too low and doesn't contact the seller or submit an offer.

I don't know if they're supposed to make offers, as ridiculous as they may be, or it is natural for them to push back sometimes.
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Paul78
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by Paul78 »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:19 pm
THY4373 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:17 pm You are absolutely right I see two places where the sellers could argue with me. One is the comps as that is clearly as much an art as a science. Second of course is my estimate vs their estimate of what it will cost to bring the house up to snuff (my realtor said if he was flipping the place it would be $50k to refurb not counting the HVACs) so they are not that far off by that measure (to live there I'd want better than flipper quality). They could also be hoping that somebody comes along that is willing to put in the sweat equity to buy a place they could not otherwise afford. A decade or two ago I might have done that myself but today nah.

There is clearly no way they would consider my offer at less than seven days on the market (I certainly wouldn't if I was on the other side) so I am just going to see what happens to the place and if it is on the market in four weeks and/or I see a price drop then I'll consider making an offer. Else I'll wait till I find exactly what I am looking for as I am in no hurry (currently have 11 months remaining on my well below market lease).

And you are right real estate is sticky on the way down and it will come down to who blinks first the buyers or the sellers.
Does your RE professional let you make lowball offers? Mine sometimes thinks my offer is too low and doesn't contact the seller or submit an offer.

I don't know if they're supposed to make offers, as ridiculous as they may be, or it is natural for them to push back sometimes.
It is my understanding they are required to make an offer if you ask. But they are also free to drop you as a client if they wish. Obviously they have incentive not to make lowball offers in terms of their reputation. But the issue is some of those lowball offers will be accepted so you are missing out on that chance if the agent doesn't place the offer.
runninginvestor
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by runninginvestor »

Paul78 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:02 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:19 pm
THY4373 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:17 pm You are absolutely right I see two places where the sellers could argue with me. One is the comps as that is clearly as much an art as a science. Second of course is my estimate vs their estimate of what it will cost to bring the house up to snuff (my realtor said if he was flipping the place it would be $50k to refurb not counting the HVACs) so they are not that far off by that measure (to live there I'd want better than flipper quality). They could also be hoping that somebody comes along that is willing to put in the sweat equity to buy a place they could not otherwise afford. A decade or two ago I might have done that myself but today nah.

There is clearly no way they would consider my offer at less than seven days on the market (I certainly wouldn't if I was on the other side) so I am just going to see what happens to the place and if it is on the market in four weeks and/or I see a price drop then I'll consider making an offer. Else I'll wait till I find exactly what I am looking for as I am in no hurry (currently have 11 months remaining on my well below market lease).

And you are right real estate is sticky on the way down and it will come down to who blinks first the buyers or the sellers.
Does your RE professional let you make lowball offers? Mine sometimes thinks my offer is too low and doesn't contact the seller or submit an offer.

I don't know if they're supposed to make offers, as ridiculous as they may be, or it is natural for them to push back sometimes.
It is my understanding they are required to make an offer if you ask. But they are also free to drop you as a client if they wish. Obviously they have incentive not to make lowball offers in terms of their reputation. But the issue is some of those lowball offers will be accepted so you are missing out on that chance if the agent doesn't place the offer.
* And in terms of their income.

It's another reason why price are sticky downwards. Both realtors have a financial incentive to not actually minimize prices.
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jabberwockOG
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by jabberwockOG »

THY4373 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 3:21 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 12:10 pm
Just out of curiosity, how do you calculate a low ball offer? This is where I have some ballpark but trying to formulate better, as I'm not too familiar with the RE market.
I am no real estate expert having only bought places three times in my life but my math is as follows(greatly simplifying my actual analysis):
  • House is listed at $450k
  • A comparable house in excellent move in condition would be worth $500k
  • House needs $75k of work easily (more on this below)
  • I need to be compensated for the work dealing with contractors and risks I'd be taking
  • So math works as $500k -$75k (work needed) - $25k (not sure this actually enough) to compensate me for my risk and work = $400k offer (or maybe a bit less)
So basically house is listed at $450k and the maximum I personally would be willing to offer it $400k and maybe not even that. The exterior of the house is fine because it was maintained by the HOA but the inside is trashed. It was so beat up that my realtor was sure it was rented out but I guessed old folks and a neighbor confirmed I was right. They clearly had got to the point where they couldn't deal with anything and must have had a couple of dogs. In a nutshell I'd be looking at a total kitchen remodel (they let some leak near the sink/dishwasher drag on so long the hardwood floors were rotted black from sitting water), total replacement of hardwood floors downstairs, total replacement of carpet upstairs due to torn up and stained carpets, likely carpet underlayment issues due I am guessing incontinent dogs as there were enough air fresheners to hide any smell and total interior repaint. There were also lots of smaller issues. Both AC units were circa 2007 and the upstairs one was set to 50 degrees but the temperature was 72 (it was running) and given the lack of maintenance elsewhere the odds they have been regularly changing the air filters is probably zero especially for the upstairs unit in the attic. So I am probably looking at one or two HVAC replacements as well.

The good news is if I could get the place cheap I could get it redone the exact way I want and ready for my retirement. The bad news is dealing with the shortage of supplies and skilled trades right now would be a pain and could easily push the costs to the point where I am no longer ahead of just buying a place in move in condition. The other three houses I have looked at in this neighborhood this year were all in spotless move in condition and looking at the pictures of past sales that appears the norm. It is mostly fairly well off retirees or DINKs that live here.


I'd let somebody else buy a poorly maintained dog/money pit like what you are describing. I'd be very surprised if you could get it remediated and updated for non rental level use $75k. Ultimate costs sounds more like $125-150K in repairs, updates, and deferred maintenance (at least where I live). I have purchased mostly cosmetic level fixers in my life and did OK on them especially in a location with inexpensive high quality trades were available. Currently where I live getting contractors to do quality work at anywhere near a reasonable cost is just about impossible.
rich126
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by rich126 »

Not sure if this is the best place to make this comment/question but I'll do it. When you are looking at homes, do you tend to discard homes that appear to have been flipped?

I often will check the tax records and if I see a home has been flipped a few times I won't look at it. My reasoning is that some flippers buy a home and do some low end repairs to make things look better cosmetically and I guess to fool home buyers into overlooking what is actually underneath.

Also, probably, I kind of don't want to give incentive/money to people who buy a home, then wait a month and put it back on the market at a much higher price. Just seems like something I don't want to encourage, of course what I do or don't makes no real difference.
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THY4373
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by THY4373 »

jabberwockOG wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:22 am I'd let somebody else buy a poorly maintained dog/money pit like what you are describing. I'd be very surprised if you could get it remediated and updated for non rental level use $75k. Ultimate costs sounds more like $125-150K in repairs, updates, and deferred maintenance (at least where I live). I have purchased mostly cosmetic level fixers in my life and did OK on them especially in a location with inexpensive high quality trades were available. Currently where I live getting contractors to do quality work at anywhere near a reasonable cost is just about impossible.
Thanks for the input. The more I have slept on it the more I have come to the same conclusion. I live in a medium cost of living area that traditionally had a good supply of reasonably priced contractors but things are more tight these days from what I can tell never mind getting supplies. I am just going to wait until I find a place that is in better condition, there doesn't seem to be a big hurry at this point.

Edit: And it went pending this afternoon, it will be interesting to see what it sold for.
Last edited by THY4373 on Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
THY4373
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by THY4373 »

rich126 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:46 am Not sure if this is the best place to make this comment/question but I'll do it. When you are looking at homes, do you tend to discard homes that appear to have been flipped?
I guess it depends on your local choices of course but yes I eliminate anything that looks like it has been flipped. I am fairly handy so I can judge their work and it doesn't instill confidence in me. That said I am sure there are flippers that do better than others. I am personally also avoiding any covid/post-covid new construction assuming that short cuts and issue are probable with supply and skilled trade shortages (they are also selling for quite a premium over existing stuff in my next of the woods).

Edit: One thing I have noticed and I don't know if it is just a particular flipper in my area or many of the flippers but one telltale from the photos is the use of a barn door somewhere in the place often for the laundry area.
Last edited by THY4373 on Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
THY4373
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by THY4373 »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:19 pm
Does your RE professional let you make lowball offers? Mine sometimes thinks my offer is too low and doesn't contact the seller or submit an offer.

I don't know if they're supposed to make offers, as ridiculous as they may be, or it is natural for them to push back sometimes.
I have only started looking in earnest within the last month after dropping out of the market in June due to the bidding wars then so I haven't yet made an offer. While I wasn't pressing the realtor to make a low ball offer yet he was clearly not gung-ho to do so. He mentioned the seller might be "offended" which I find mildly amusing because nobody worries about the buyers being "offended" by the sellers asking price though I do get his point to a degree which is come in too early and too low and you might be taken out of the running. In the end I am sure he'd make the offer if/when I ask him to. My current realtor is through Redfin and I am not impressed and I haven't signed anything so I am going to find a better realtor to work with going forward when looking at other places. At least around me the market is softening for sure so I suspect realtors will get more flexible over time as we head into winter.
rich126
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by rich126 »

THY4373 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:00 am
rich126 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:46 am Not sure if this is the best place to make this comment/question but I'll do it. When you are looking at homes, do you tend to discard homes that appear to have been flipped?
I guess it depends on your local choices of course but yes I eliminate anything that looks like it has been flipped. I am fairly handy so I can judge their work and it doesn't instill confidence in me. That said I am sure there are flippers that do better than others. I am personally also avoiding any Covid/post-covid new construction assuming that short cuts and issue are probable with supply and skilled trade shortages (they are also selling for quite a premium over existing stuff in my next of the woods).
I know during the last boom in Arizona (somewhere from 2003-2008) there was a big shortage in construction workers and some builders were lowering their standards to hire anyone and the quality suffered so I can understand your view.

Although my view is somewhat flawed since certain things have improved in construction over the years but I tend to buy homes that are usually 20+ years old. Partly because they seem time tested and partly because the neighborhoods are fully developed. When I look at new developments people can say this or that is planned but I view most undeveloped land as a possible shopping center, maybe townhouse/aprt complex development, etc. and would prefer not to get to close to them if I'm buying a SFH. And if some extreme cases builders run out of money and if the economy is weak, I've read about some developments never getting finished.
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bd7
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by bd7 »

THY4373 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:08 am He mentioned the seller might be "offended" which I find mildly amusing because nobody worries about the buyers being "offended" by the sellers asking price though I do get his point to a degree which is come in too early and too low and you might be taken out of the running.
When we bought a decade ago, in a market of low prices but no inventory, our agent was helpful with advice but accommodating when it came to writing lowball offers--and we wrote quite a few. One seller apparently became very 'offended' and didn't reply--we even heard about it when we looked at another house listed by the same selling agent who agreed to show it but asked our realtor to not submit any more 'ridiculous' offers. The second house was a run-down McMansion type, so we just passed. Anyhow, the original 'offended' seller ended up selling the house several months later for what we had offered and we got a better deal on a much, much nicer house for 10% more.

There is no 'in the running' anymore, that appears to have come to a screeching halt in the past 30 days, at least here in SoCal. It has gone from over-asking bidding wars to price reductions all in the month of July. But it takes time for that to sink in and the net result is that the reasonably buyable available inventory is shrinking rapidly as people take either take their houses off the market or just let it sit on the market overpriced. It is likely to still be tough to buy a house for a while.
THY4373
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by THY4373 »

rich126 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:44 am Although my view is somewhat flawed since certain things have improved in construction over the years but I tend to buy homes that are usually 20+ years old. Partly because they seem time tested and partly because the neighborhoods are fully developed.
That is my approach as well though a lot of the places I am looking at are more in the 15 year region (just because that is about the time folks started building higher end townhomes in my area) but I am doing it for the exact reasons you are which is you can see how the place has aged and the neighborhood is usually fully developed.
SmallSaver
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by SmallSaver »

runninginvestor wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:12 am
* And in terms of their income.

It's another reason why price are sticky downwards. Both realtors have a financial incentive to not actually minimize prices.
Maybe an actual realtor can chime in, but I always figured their incentive was to close deals fast rather than try to eke out a few more tens of thousands on the price for any particular one - 3% of $30k is $900. That incentive still points in the same direction though, make offers that will easily be accepted rather than spend months trying to get a deal.
Marseille07
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by Marseille07 »

THY4373 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:08 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:19 pm
Does your RE professional let you make lowball offers? Mine sometimes thinks my offer is too low and doesn't contact the seller or submit an offer.

I don't know if they're supposed to make offers, as ridiculous as they may be, or it is natural for them to push back sometimes.
I have only started looking in earnest within the last month after dropping out of the market in June due to the bidding wars then so I haven't yet made an offer. While I wasn't pressing the realtor to make a low ball offer yet he was clearly not gung-ho to do so. He mentioned the seller might be "offended" which I find mildly amusing because nobody worries about the buyers being "offended" by the sellers asking price though I do get his point to a degree which is come in too early and too low and you might be taken out of the running. In the end I am sure he'd make the offer if/when I ask him to. My current realtor is through Redfin and I am not impressed and I haven't signed anything so I am going to find a better realtor to work with going forward when looking at other places. At least around me the market is softening for sure so I suspect realtors will get more flexible over time as we head into winter.
Yeah, I get that the sellers may be offended but I'm not sure how much the buyers should care; we have our bottom line to take care of and our business isn't to please the sellers.
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Marseille07
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by Marseille07 »

Paul78 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:02 am It is my understanding they are required to make an offer if you ask. But they are also free to drop you as a client if they wish. Obviously they have incentive not to make lowball offers in terms of their reputation. But the issue is some of those lowball offers will be accepted so you are missing out on that chance if the agent doesn't place the offer.
Yeah, what I usually do is to have the RE professional contact the seller's agent just to get a feel of where it's at. I don't blindly make lowball offers out of blue.
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makingmistakes
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by makingmistakes »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:50 pm
THY4373 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:08 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:19 pm
Does your RE professional let you make lowball offers? Mine sometimes thinks my offer is too low and doesn't contact the seller or submit an offer.

I don't know if they're supposed to make offers, as ridiculous as they may be, or it is natural for them to push back sometimes.
I have only started looking in earnest within the last month after dropping out of the market in June due to the bidding wars then so I haven't yet made an offer. While I wasn't pressing the realtor to make a low ball offer yet he was clearly not gung-ho to do so. He mentioned the seller might be "offended" which I find mildly amusing because nobody worries about the buyers being "offended" by the sellers asking price though I do get his point to a degree which is come in too early and too low and you might be taken out of the running. In the end I am sure he'd make the offer if/when I ask him to. My current realtor is through Redfin and I am not impressed and I haven't signed anything so I am going to find a better realtor to work with going forward when looking at other places. At least around me the market is softening for sure so I suspect realtors will get more flexible over time as we head into winter.
Yeah, I get that the sellers may be offended but I'm not sure how much the buyers should care; we have our bottom line to take care of and our business isn't to please the sellers.
I got a lowball offer on my previous home but it certainly didn’t offend me. Can’t fault someone for looking for a deal. Simply told my realtor that I could get more selling to Opendoor with less hassle and wasn’t interested.
poker27
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by poker27 »

Recently listed my Chicago townhouse. Realtor wanted to list it private for a week at $575 (which I thought was a bit high) then following zero interest, dropped it to $550k and posted on the MLS. Had an open house today, and not a single person came.

I’m trying to decide if it’s the market, or lack of effort from the realtor. They told me they will drop off a ‘coming soon’ sign…. Not only did I never get a coming soon sign, I don’t even have a darn for sale sign in front of my place
j9j
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by j9j »

poker27 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:33 pm Recently listed my Chicago townhouse. Realtor wanted to list it private for a week at $575 (which I thought was a bit high) then following zero interest, dropped it to $550k and posted on the MLS. Had an open house today, and not a single person came.

I’m trying to decide if it’s the market, or lack of effort from the realtor. They told me they will drop off a ‘coming soon’ sign…. Not only did I never get a coming soon sign, I don’t even have a darn for sale sign in front of my place
Sounds like a fail by the realtor on all accounts. Bad form on not dropping off a sign to a client after stating they would. Critically bad advice on Listing price which led to zero showing at open house.
poker27
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by poker27 »

j9j wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:52 pm
poker27 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:33 pm Recently listed my Chicago townhouse. Realtor wanted to list it private for a week at $575 (which I thought was a bit high) then following zero interest, dropped it to $550k and posted on the MLS. Had an open house today, and not a single person came.

I’m trying to decide if it’s the market, or lack of effort from the realtor. They told me they will drop off a ‘coming soon’ sign…. Not only did I never get a coming soon sign, I don’t even have a darn for sale sign in front of my place
Sounds like a fail by the realtor on all accounts. Bad form on not dropping off a sign to a client after stating they would. Critically bad advice on Listing price which led to zero showing at open house.
Ya, I’m really torn… I interviewed a few realtors before selecting this place, as they had done the most transactions and were the most confident by far.

I snooped an open house down the street last weekend, for a similar place. They had several people there when I stopped by, and ended up going into contract a few days later. So we will see what this week does
rich126
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by rich126 »

poker27 wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:10 am
j9j wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:52 pm
poker27 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:33 pm Recently listed my Chicago townhouse. Realtor wanted to list it private for a week at $575 (which I thought was a bit high) then following zero interest, dropped it to $550k and posted on the MLS. Had an open house today, and not a single person came.

I’m trying to decide if it’s the market, or lack of effort from the realtor. They told me they will drop off a ‘coming soon’ sign…. Not only did I never get a coming soon sign, I don’t even have a darn for sale sign in front of my place
Sounds like a fail by the realtor on all accounts. Bad form on not dropping off a sign to a client after stating they would. Critically bad advice on Listing price which led to zero showing at open house.
Ya, I’m really torn… I interviewed a few realtors before selecting this place, as they had done the most transactions and were the most confident by far.

I snooped an open house down the street last weekend, for a similar place. They had several people there when I stopped by, and ended up going into contract a few days later. So we will see what this week does
My experience with a number of agents is that I believe it is best to pick the best agent you can find. At times in my real estate dealings I've used agents from well known brokerages, discount agents, "elite" agents, etc. While in certain circumstances a discount agent can be good***(see below), I've decided that for me it is best to pick the agent who does the most business in my neighborhood unless you have some kind of serious issue with the person.

That agent, and usually a team of agents, are very familiar with what is on the market, what will be coming on the market, what the homes actually look like on the inside and have a ton of comments from people looking to sell and/or buy. They also have a ton of resources to fix problems if they occur during the sale (access to reliable last minute repair people, landscape, photographers, staging, moving trucks, etc.).

Years ago for a corporate move they wanted me to use this agent from a reasonably well known real estate office but the guy didn't even do real estate full time. I contact a big name person on my own and they agreed to use my preferred agent. He came very prepared, and actually I thought his price was too high and even knocked a few dollars off of it. It was at that time a good 10-15% higher than the other agent. Turned out he was right because I had multiple offers on my house the first weekend (way back in 2003).

Too many people get caught up in previous prices like they do on stocks but that has no relevance. What something sold for last year or sometimes last week may not matter this week. Also some just can't understand their remodeling didn't enhance the value at all.
----
Discount Agent Story
My first house was a townhouse in a marginal neighborhood and I had a tough time selling it and fired a few agents. One lady said I priced it too high and I pointed out to her, I listed it for what she suggested. Another agent only seemed to want to do open houses. Finally I said enough and contacted a discount agent and told him what I wanted and what I did not want. Mostly I just wanted it listed with a lock box, no open homes and try this price. He did exactly what I wanted. Because of that I used him also on my next house purchase since I knew the area and only really need someone to run some listings, comps and do some paper work and check on a few things.

Nowadays I usually just go to the top agents and pick one. Dealing with something that runs hundreds of thousands of dollars isn't something to skimp on. I'm not fond of agents that can't be on time or mess up stuff.
----------------------------- | If you think something is important and it doesn't involve the health of someone, think again. Life goes too fast, enjoy it and be nice.
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jfn111
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by jfn111 »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:56 pm
Paul78 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:02 am It is my understanding they are required to make an offer if you ask. But they are also free to drop you as a client if they wish. Obviously they have incentive not to make lowball offers in terms of their reputation. But the issue is some of those lowball offers will be accepted so you are missing out on that chance if the agent doesn't place the offer.
Yeah, what I usually do is to have the RE professional contact the seller's agent just to get a feel of where it's at. I don't blindly make lowball offers out of blue.
This is my preferred approach. I'll give the listing agent a call and try to get a feel for the situation. There is a big difference if the house is sitting empty and has been on the market for 30 days vs a house that's occupied and has just gone on the market.
I tell my clients one of three things will happen with any offer they submit. The Seller will accept the offer, decline the offer or counter the offer. It's very rare that I don't get at least a counter but it does happen on occasion with low ball offers.
THY4373
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by THY4373 »

poker27 wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:10 am
j9j wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:52 pm
poker27 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:33 pm Recently listed my Chicago townhouse. Realtor wanted to list it private for a week at $575 (which I thought was a bit high) then following zero interest, dropped it to $550k and posted on the MLS. Had an open house today, and not a single person came.

I’m trying to decide if it’s the market, or lack of effort from the realtor. They told me they will drop off a ‘coming soon’ sign…. Not only did I never get a coming soon sign, I don’t even have a darn for sale sign in front of my place
Sounds like a fail by the realtor on all accounts. Bad form on not dropping off a sign to a client after stating they would. Critically bad advice on Listing price which led to zero showing at open house.
Ya, I’m really torn… I interviewed a few realtors before selecting this place, as they had done the most transactions and were the most confident by far.

I snooped an open house down the street last weekend, for a similar place. They had several people there when I stopped by, and ended up going into contract a few days later. So we will see what this week does
Honestly I wouldn't sweat it. As much as I wish otherwise at least around me it is still a sellers market, just more red hot than white hot. Most places still go pending in a week or two unless they are the dregs of one kind or another. The current market only seems "cool" in comparison to what has been happening in prior months. Also you have passed peak selling time for the year so there will just be fewer buyers around though there is also less supply to compete with.
poker27
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by poker27 »

THY4373 wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:20 am
poker27 wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:10 am
j9j wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:52 pm
poker27 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:33 pm Recently listed my Chicago townhouse. Realtor wanted to list it private for a week at $575 (which I thought was a bit high) then following zero interest, dropped it to $550k and posted on the MLS. Had an open house today, and not a single person came.

I’m trying to decide if it’s the market, or lack of effort from the realtor. They told me they will drop off a ‘coming soon’ sign…. Not only did I never get a coming soon sign, I don’t even have a darn for sale sign in front of my place
Sounds like a fail by the realtor on all accounts. Bad form on not dropping off a sign to a client after stating they would. Critically bad advice on Listing price which led to zero showing at open house.
Ya, I’m really torn… I interviewed a few realtors before selecting this place, as they had done the most transactions and were the most confident by far.

I snooped an open house down the street last weekend, for a similar place. They had several people there when I stopped by, and ended up going into contract a few days later. So we will see what this week does
Honestly I wouldn't sweat it. As much as I wish otherwise at least around me it is still a sellers market, just more red hot than white hot. Most places still go pending in a week or two unless they are the dregs of one kind or another. The current market only seems "cool" in comparison to what has been happening in prior months. Also you have passed peak selling time for the year so there will just be fewer buyers around though there is also less supply to compete with.
Appreciate the confidence :sharebeer
DarkHelmetII
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by DarkHelmetII »

Just received Zillow Market Report for ultra exurb location (~ 90 minutes from city center) projecting 16% 1-year value decrease. Interesting.
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UncleLeo
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by UncleLeo »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:42 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:47 pm Everyday, I get an email or two from Redfin about price decrease.
Should I wait till the Fed's done hiking? I have some flexibility to make a move this year or 2023 or even 2024.
Is there a chance that rate hikes will continue until 2024? Is there a recent historical example of ~2.5 years of continuous rate increases?
Marseille07
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by Marseille07 »

UncleLeo wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:01 pm Is there a chance that rate hikes will continue until 2024? Is there a recent historical example of ~2.5 years of continuous rate increases?
Yeah, and the housing market might not keep going down either. I won't pay the listing price but will be in the market as a buyer.
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RubyTuesday
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by RubyTuesday »

UncleLeo wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:01 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:42 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:47 pm Everyday, I get an email or two from Redfin about price decrease.
Should I wait till the Fed's done hiking? I have some flexibility to make a move this year or 2023 or even 2024.
Is there a chance that rate hikes will continue until 2024? Is there a recent historical example of ~2.5 years of continuous rate increases?
The “rate hikes” are short term overnight rates. Mortgage rates are largely based on 10 year rates, which have come down recently. I wouldn’t presume to be able to predict the movement of 10 year rates. If you can, financing a house will not be a concern - you could be uber rich with that knowledge.
“Doing nothing is better than being busy doing nothing.” – Lao Tzu
Hebell
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

Post by Hebell »

I can tell you that in the rural area of the Delmarva peninsula, Maryland side, > 25 miles away from Easton and the resort towns on the Chesapeake Bay.... these areas have taken a hit. A hard hit. This is where tradespeople live, with a significant portion barely keeping their heads above water.

When the economy has been good, the seller could get a decent home price (for this type of market). But I would say prices have easily dropped 20% already. I'm under contract now, selling a couple of rental properties, but had to keep taking the hits. Buyers here were hit extraordinarily hard by the rise in interest rates.

Thank goodness I made some decent rents for 7 years, but I'd still say it wasn't worth the hassle of fixing the repairs after domestic disputes, and the trash left behind by tenants that lose jobs and fall into drugs. I am glad to no longer be a landlord in this area. I've always had a soft spot for the Eastern shore ... But parts of the interior away from the coastlines really do suffer
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