Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

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JoeRetire
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by JoeRetire »

an_asker wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:00 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:16 pm [...]If you don't need the money, you can always do whatever makes your wife happy.
[...]
Fixed it for you :-)
Well done!

Although I might truncate it to "You can always do whatever makes your wife happy."
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
er999
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by er999 »

Personally I’d sell at least half and lock in $87k in profits. That would give you from your $618 initial investment a 140x return. This is still an amazing individual stock return, almost approaching cryptocurrency like odds. To give a perspective how rare that is people are super happy with a 10x return. There was a book published called 100 baggers about searching for the elusive 100x return, so you have already made more than that. People who make more than that usually use options — I was reading a book about GameStop and those who made 1000x were using options so I suspect your return with buying an individual stock is in the top 0.001%.

If you still believe that the company has future prospects $87k is still a huge investment and you could let that amount ride but I’d at least sell half and maybe all particularly since the stock looks like it’s at an all time high.
stoptothink
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by stoptothink »

JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:24 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:22 pm The OP might not "need it", but they aren't "wealthy" (at least by the standards of this board) and cashing out now would have a non-trivial impact on their ability to reach their early retirement goal.
Perhaps we have different definitions of "need it".
You misinterpreted my post, I was agreeing with you.
Parkinglotracer
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by Parkinglotracer »

I’d sell at least half of it but everyone has their own technique. What’s your worse regret ? Mine would be riding it down to zero. I would minimize that happening.

Congrats !
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JoeRetire
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by JoeRetire »

stoptothink wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:42 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:24 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:22 pm The OP might not "need it", but they aren't "wealthy" (at least by the standards of this board) and cashing out now would have a non-trivial impact on their ability to reach their early retirement goal.
Perhaps we have different definitions of "need it".
You misinterpreted my post, I was agreeing with you.
So you agree that folks that don't need it can do whatever pleases them (keep or sell) with their individual stock holdings.
But you feel that the OP actually does need it, in spite of the fact that they specifically said they didn't ("... I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money...")?

Okay.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
stoptothink
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by stoptothink »

JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:25 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:42 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:24 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:22 pm The OP might not "need it", but they aren't "wealthy" (at least by the standards of this board) and cashing out now would have a non-trivial impact on their ability to reach their early retirement goal.
Perhaps we have different definitions of "need it".
You misinterpreted my post, I was agreeing with you.
So you agree that folks that don't need it can do whatever pleases them (keep or sell) their individual stock holdings.
But you feel that the OP actually does need it?

Okay.
Yes, why would I disagree that anybody can do whatever they want with their assets :confused While I don't feel that the OP "needs" it, they are not in a situation where $175k is just a rounding error - if this stock tanks, they're going to feel it and it may set back their early retirement goal. Clearly doing something about this is weighing on their mind. Since it's exactly what OP asked, in their situation I'd sell ~90% of it and ease my mind a bit.
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JoeRetire
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by JoeRetire »

stoptothink wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:29 pmif this stock tanks, they're going to feel it and it may set back their early retirement goal.
Maybe the issue is that the OP doesn't feel the need to retire quite so early.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
Circe
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by Circe »

Congratulations!
I would sell part and keep part, and maybe put a stop loss on the part that you're keeping.

Just take a look at the history of some of the hot stocks over the past few years -- the gambling stocks (DKNG etc), the EV stocks (NKLA, CRNC etc). Many of those will never again see their recent highs.

Having lived through the crashes of 2000 and 2008, I'm more cautious but that also comes with age -- don't have 20 - 30 years to recover before retirement. The slooooow recovery after 2008 was also very painful. No way to know what lies ahead, but good luck whatever you decide!
mikejuss
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by mikejuss »

You did terrifically well, OP. Now sell, pay the taxes, and move on. You might regret selling too soon, but you'll be tortured for not selling quick enough if the stock plummets.
an_asker
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by an_asker »

JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:25 pm
an_asker wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:00 pm
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:16 pm [...]If you don't need the money, you can always do whatever makes your wife happy.
[...]
Fixed it for you :-)
Well done!

Although I might truncate it to "You can always do whatever makes your wife happy."
Lol!

That too... but the first clause adds a Bogleheads touch to it ;-)
stoptothink
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by stoptothink »

JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:41 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:29 pmif this stock tanks, they're going to feel it and it may set back their early retirement goal.
Maybe the issue is that the OP doesn't feel the need to retire quite so early.
OP said they plan to retire in 7-10yrs. I'll take their word regarding their plans.
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BrooklynInvest
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by BrooklynInvest »

canadianbacon wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:15 am Congratulations. I would sell.
I would too. Especially if it has become a large percentage of my portfolio.

Plan B: If there's a reason you still believe in this stock despite the massive run-up sell enough so that it's not a significant percentage of your portfolio. I'd say 5% but that's me.
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JoeRetire
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by JoeRetire »

stoptothink wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:18 am
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:41 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:29 pmif this stock tanks, they're going to feel it and it may set back their early retirement goal.
Maybe the issue is that the OP doesn't feel the need to retire quite so early.
OP said they plan to retire in 7-10yrs. I'll take their word regarding their plans.
The OP also said "I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money"

I guess we can choose to take their word on whatever parts we prefer.
This is gonna be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this: The Summer of George!
RubyTuesday
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by RubyTuesday »

I think ENPH makes a great product and may be a good company. Those two things are not the definition of a good investment. Your original investment was clearly a good investment, but money is fungible and now you effectively have a $175k decision.

I would sell most of it because I don’t like taking single stock risk with real money.

That said, we seemed poised to extend significant tax incentives for renewable energy (which we can’t discuss as this is pending legislation).
“Doing nothing is better than being busy doing nothing.” – Lao Tzu
stoptothink
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by stoptothink »

JoeRetire wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:32 am
stoptothink wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:18 am
JoeRetire wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:41 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:29 pmif this stock tanks, they're going to feel it and it may set back their early retirement goal.
Maybe the issue is that the OP doesn't feel the need to retire quite so early.
OP said they plan to retire in 7-10yrs. I'll take their word regarding their plans.
The OP also said "I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money"

I guess we can choose to take their word on whatever parts we prefer.
Running around in circles over semantics. It's clear OP doesn't "need" the money, but IMO needing something and feeling the loss of something are two very different things. We don't "need" my wife's RSUs either (or our brokerage account or our HSA or....), but if they went to zero we'd both be pretty distraught and it would delay plans we have. As has been brought up multiple times, first step is OP asking what would happen and how they'd feel if this $175k went to zero. It may not change anything, but they should still go through that mental exercise. We're comfortable "gambling" (in our case, with crypto) with ~2% of our portfolio, OP is talking ~15% of theirs. Are they comfortable with the idea of possibly losing 15% of what they have accumulated? Would they feel more comfortable if they sold some now and sat on a portion of their current holding?

I'm not sure at this point what you are even arguing about. Appears you got just annoyed thinking I wasn't agreeing with you with my initial response (which isn't really the case) :sharebeer
Last edited by stoptothink on Fri Aug 05, 2022 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
random_walker_77
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by random_walker_77 »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k cost of $618 and balance of close to $175k.
You're probably in the 15% tax bracket for long term capital gains, so this represents ~$150K after taxes. The p/e is sky high and bad news could cause it to drop 90% at any time. If a recession comes along and causes cutbacks in capital expenditures, it could be bad.

At your current rate of savings, how many years of working does it take to save $150K?

Thought experiment: if you accidentally sold all of it, would your wife tell you to spend all $150K to buy back only ENPH? You might not need the $150K, but for most people, that's a substantial sum. For some, that might even be a life-changing sum. (digression: in the news, people get caught paying hitmen a lot less than that!)

Some bogleheads might consider a mere 0.15M to really be only play money, but I suspect you're not there yet :wink: . . . so you should probably retest that assumption with your wife.
"Would you be mad at me if I lost us $120K?"
"Hypothetically, if I'd accidentally sold our ENPH, would it be ok if I put the $150K all back into ENPH? If after rebuying, it drops $120K, how mad will you be?"
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by TomatoTomahto »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:59 am One thing I am considering is using the profits to pay for solar for my house.
There you go! Install some IQ8 panels and some storage to go with them. Every month when you get an incentive check or a $0 electric bill (a lot depends on your state of residence, but it's all a win), you can thank ENPH for a gift that keeps giving, sunny day after sunny day.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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livingthedream17
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by livingthedream17 »

UPDATE

The stock has continued rising and I've gained another $10k since I made my initial post. I currently put in a stop order at $300 for 100 of my shares. This could trigger today. I am seriously considering using the money to install solar. The federal tax credit (currently 26%) will help cancel out some of the cap gains taxes.

In the past week, I've done more research on the company and they are just killing it. I understand that its still a huge risk and anything could happen so I do intend to sell at least 1/3 of position (300 shares) in total this year. I'm using a little towards a family vacation and the rest will roll into VTSAX.
HCopter
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by HCopter »

Hello Bogleheads! I'm relatively new but have spend hours on the forum already!

I am in a similar situation, except my DDs are already in college - so for us there is only a short window to gift stock now and not pay long term gains, I think...

Can OP (and his wife?) gift the max ($15k each?) to the child(ren) and then sell with no taxes since if the child is under the income limit? Then that jump starts the child's taxable investment portfolio and minimizes the tax issue - is this correct, and an option?

Given OP's current net worth, goals, and trajectory, plus the statement he doesn't need the money....there will be nowhere to hide on the FAFSA and CCS Profile when it's time - so no reason to minimize the child's assets, is this correct? The child's trajectory looks like paying full freight with no no-loan aid, so merit and scholarship money only, along with 529 funds and whatever else the family has for college-ing.
ModifiedDuration
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by ModifiedDuration »

HCopter wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:10 am Hello Bogleheads! I'm relatively new but have spend hours on the forum already!

I am in a similar situation, except my DDs are already in college - so for us there is only a short window to gift stock now and not pay long term gains, I think...

Can OP (and his wife?) gift the max ($15k each?) to the child(ren) and then sell with no taxes since if the child is under the income limit? Then that jump starts the child's taxable investment portfolio and minimizes the tax issue - is this correct, and an option?

Given OP's current net worth, goals, and trajectory, plus the statement he doesn't need the money....there will be nowhere to hide on the FAFSA and CCS Profile when it's time - so no reason to minimize the child's assets, is this correct? The child's trajectory looks like paying full freight with no no-loan aid, so merit and scholarship money only, along with 529 funds and whatever else the family has for college-ing.
You might want to read about the Kiddie Tax, which would apply until age 24 for full-time college students.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Kiddie_tax
HCopter
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by HCopter »

ModifiedDuration wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:28 am
HCopter wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:10 am Hello Bogleheads! I'm relatively new but have spend hours on the forum already!

I am in a similar situation, except my DDs are already in college - so for us there is only a short window to gift stock now and not pay long term gains, I think...

Can OP (and his wife?) gift the max ($15k each?) to the child(ren) and then sell with no taxes since if the child is under the income limit? Then that jump starts the child's taxable investment portfolio and minimizes the tax issue - is this correct, and an option?

Given OP's current net worth, goals, and trajectory, plus the statement he doesn't need the money....there will be nowhere to hide on the FAFSA and CCS Profile when it's time - so no reason to minimize the child's assets, is this correct? The child's trajectory looks like paying full freight with no no-loan aid, so merit and scholarship money only, along with 529 funds and whatever else the family has for college-ing.
You might want to read about the Kiddie Tax, which would apply until age 24 for full-time college students.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Kiddie_tax
Thank you ModifiedDuration for the quick clarification!
DJZ
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Re: Stock up +28075.96%, what would you do?

Post by DJZ »

livingthedream17 wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:51 am First off, I recognize this is a very good problem to have :D. I'm just not really sure where to go from here. One of my taxable brokerage holdings (ENPH) is up +28075.96% for a cost basis close to $175k cost of $618 and balance of close to $175k.

I have followed the Boglehead and FIRE investing philosophies for most of my adult life. My spouse and I max out our 401k, ROTH IRAs, HSAs and contribute to our child's 529 along with an additional $1500/mo into taxable brokerage (VTSAX). Over the years I have dabbled in some stocks with some extra money for fun. Yes, I know this doesn't really fly with bogleheads but it's kind of a fun hobby of mine making small bets. Somehow I came across ENPH back in 2015, bought at $6 and then doubled down in 2017 at $0.95! I've taken my original investment and some long term gains to help towards my house down payment

Our total investment balance is at about 18x spending and I'm hoping I can early retire in 7-10 years (I'm 38 now). I'm looking for suggestions or strategies on what to do with this. I don't mind the volatility since we don't need the money and the wife says to just keep holding. Let it ride??
If you are selling, certainly donate 30% of it to a DAF before you do. Lowers your taxes a lot and you still get to direct where it goes.
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