Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

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secondopinion
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by secondopinion »

H.Hornblower wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:26 pm Moraif just sent out a market alert video today. He did not explicitly say that they were selling out, but he hinted at it.
https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... tent=video

Next to last paragraph:

As a result, we don’t expect a knight in shining armor to appear with trillions of dollars to throw at the economy again, because doing so would only make inflation worse. However, if they do not do so, the rebound that we saw in 2020 when the market was falling, was due to all of that stimulus, which may not occur this time. We could see this devolve into a very bad situation, and that’s without even considering the possibility that Putin isn’t done with Ukraine. Could we deal with a war on two fronts? A lot of very, very risky situations could harm the worldwide economies. Again, as you may know, we believe that you should invest, but you should also protect yourself, and that you should always have a strategy in place to protect yourself from large debilitating losses. Our strategy is one that doesn’t stop you from losing any money, but it is designed to mitigate to make the amount of damage tolerable.
The only part I concern myself with is making sure that I keep my risk in check (I have already done that before all of this happened). The rest of it is kind of scare-talk rather than meaningful to a long-term investor.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
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Electron
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Electron »

H.Hornblower wrote: Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:26 pm Moraif just sent out a market alert video today. He did not explicitly say that they were selling out, but he hinted at it.
This will be interesting to follow. If the market decline continues for an extended period and to lower levels, they could wind up with a productive trade. Unfortunately, timing systems of that type can also buy quite late.

I receive their emails sent to one of my secondary email addresses. They stopped after I unsubscribed but then resumed after a year or so.
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Annunity Slayer has a new video about Moraif and the sell off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDpV3Zjxqvk
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif has indeed sold out equities and some bonds: video is 2/24/2022 https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... ews-video/

First paragraph of the transcript.

Well, as of the close of business today, we have sold all of the equities inside of the TCOEX fund and also all of the bonds that are inside of the TCOBX fund. That should be taken care of, and what’s interesting, and what we always like, is that if we’re going to sell, we want to sell on an up day, and who would have thought today would be an up day after the Dow was down 800 points and all of that? But it reminds me of 2007 when we sold right after we sold, and the market went up almost every day for the next week. “Oh no, maybe we made a mistake,” we thought. However, as you are aware, 2008 followed. So, it’s possible that it will rise and we’ll get back to our buy signal, but it’s also possible that it can go down from here. We don’t know, but what we do know is that there is a lot of risk with a lot of downsides. It’s better to be safe than sorry, so when our signal tells us to sell, we do so. Like I said, if we’re going to pick a day to sell, we want to sell on an up day which is a good thing. This is where we are, and we’ll keep you posted as things come along.
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif released another client video 2/25/2022 - "The Market is going up, should we have stayed in?"
https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... stayed-in/

Evidently Moraif considers his clients as children with whom he has to be strict. Next to last paragraph of the transcript.

Whether it turns into a bear market or not, we believe it was the right decision. Protecting the principal is more important than taking a high risk and staying in a situation that could result in significant damage. I was talking to a client just yesterday, and she asked, “Can you tell me what happens?” If all of my friends are asking me, “Why did you get out when the markets are going up and they’re making more money than I am?” I’m not happy with that.” I said, “Well, you know, that reminds me of my daughters when they were teenagers, and we had a curfew. 11 o’clock, you need to be home, and I remember one time when my daughter came home. She was very upset the next day because she said, “Daddy, you’re always saying that nothing good happens after midnight, you want us home by 11, and the biggest party of the year happened. This is high school, and everybody went and nothing bad happened. You were wrong. Nothing bad did happen, and you should have let me go to the party.” I said to her, “You know what, something could have happened, and if it did, it would have been terrible for you and for us. I don’t care that everybody else had fun at the party. 11 o’clock, curfew is the right thing to do, and as your parent, I’m telling you, that’s the rule.” She didn’t like me for that, but later on, when she was in her late 20s, she said, “Daddy, I am so glad that you were strict with us, all the other parents were so liberal. It was a sign of love.”
Dry-Drink
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Dry-Drink »

H.Hornblower wrote: Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:34 pm Moraif released another client video 2/25/2022 - "The Market is going up, should we have stayed in?"
https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... stayed-in/

Evidently Moraif considers his clients as children with whom he has to be strict. Next to last paragraph of the transcript.

Whether it turns into a bear market or not, we believe it was the right decision. Protecting the principal is more important than taking a high risk and staying in a situation that could result in significant damage. I was talking to a client just yesterday, and she asked, “Can you tell me what happens?” If all of my friends are asking me, “Why did you get out when the markets are going up and they’re making more money than I am?” I’m not happy with that.” I said, “Well, you know, that reminds me of my daughters when they were teenagers, and we had a curfew. 11 o’clock, you need to be home, and I remember one time when my daughter came home. She was very upset the next day because she said, “Daddy, you’re always saying that nothing good happens after midnight, you want us home by 11, and the biggest party of the year happened. This is high school, and everybody went and nothing bad happened. You were wrong. Nothing bad did happen, and you should have let me go to the party.” I said to her, “You know what, something could have happened, and if it did, it would have been terrible for you and for us. I don’t care that everybody else had fun at the party. 11 o’clock, curfew is the right thing to do, and as your parent, I’m telling you, that’s the rule.” She didn’t like me for that, but later on, when she was in her late 20s, she said, “Daddy, I am so glad that you were strict with us, all the other parents were so liberal. It was a sign of love.”
Hornblower, I think I speak for everyone here when I say we appreciate that you keep us updated on Moraif. The investment choices he makes and the explanations given are really uhh... something to behold let's say.
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Just a note for those interested. Moraif is in the process of moving his clients from SEI to BNY Mellon|Pershing. Here's a video that explains it.
https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... poa-video/

Second paragraph of transcript.

We would like to announce that the future of our investment experience is going to be with BNY Mellon. We have interviewed some major companies such as Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, and decided BNY Mellon is the best company for us going forward to provide you with our investment solution. We would also like to announce that we have chosen Pershing as our custodian. We’re very excited about those two companies bringing us into the future of our RPOA experience. You may be asking, “Who are BNY Mellon and Pershing?” Pershing is one of the largest custodians in the world, and BNY Mellon is one of the largest investment banks in the world. They have over $45 trillion of assets under custody or administration as of June of 2021.
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Taylor Larimore »

H.Hornblower wrote: Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:05 pm Just a note for those interested. Moraif is in the process of moving his clients from SEI to BNY Mellon|Pershing.

We would like to announce that the future of our investment experience is going to be with BNY Mellon.
Bogleheads:

A bit of history may be in order:

Vanguard had an "Asset-Allocation" fund with "Mellon Capital Management." The fund worked until it didn't. The fund was quietly merged into Vanguard Balanced Index Fund. Mr. Bogle wrote about it in his book, "Stay The Course." Mellon Capital Management is now owned by BNY Mellon.

Bank investments are notorious for high expenses. Let us hope that Mr. Moraif has better luck with Mellon Capital Management than Vanguard did.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "You get to keep exactly what you don't pay for."
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

New client video from Moraif explaining the process of accounts settling - "Value Drop is Normal"
https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... ent-video/

First paragraph:

I wanted to send you this video as soon as possible and get it into your hands because, as we previously discussed in our videos and emails, trades within a mutual fund take three days to settle. So they’re settling today, and while they’re settling, think of the mutual fund as a container with a price that is based on the value of all the investments inside of it. When we sell all of the investments inside the container, the price we receive in the mutual fund world is known as T plus three, which stands for trade day plus three business days. As the three business days pass, we can see that the values will change, they will move up and down, and in the case of yesterday, they will move dramatically down. In addition, there is the capital gains distribution that must be accounted for and then reinvested. Again, these are all common occurrences with mutual funds.
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by sureshoe »

Hah, I have to laugh noticing this thread. The original posted over 6 years ago:
Bogle_Feet wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2015 11:52 pm Ken Moraif the market timer told his clients to sell all of their stocks (I guess) on August 21st. Well now stocks have gone up past that sell point of his. I read that he missed his last 2 market timing calls. His clients might be missing the boat for the 3rd time in a row if things don't change soon. On Sept 28 the S&P held it's ground and never dipped below the previous Aug 25 low. Today it took out the 2 previous highs. Seems bullish to me.
Here's the thing with these types, there is always another sucker and they always reset the baseline.

Think about the guys on early morning Saturday/Sunday AM radio who sell "Gambling Services with an accuracy over 90%". They just make lots of predictions, and only count the ones that hit.

That's how these guys work, keep making calls. You'll have some people who get sick of being burnt that drop away. Then, re-baseline, and new suckers show up. I'm assuming somewhere this guy advertises "25%+ returns" or some ridiculous thing.
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Even though the market has climbed above his sell point, Moraif is still preaching a big bad bear. His latest market alert video is titled "Should You Sell Now?"
https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... -sell-now/

Last of the transcript:
The downside risk in our view is far greater than the upside. And if you’re over 50, if you’re retired or retiring soon, we think it’s very important for you to really look at how much risk you’re taking, and how to protect yourself, etc. What I would encourage you to do is go to our website, RPOA.com and what I encourage you to do also is to visit with one of our retirement planners and let them help you to walk through all of this and build a plan to get you through your retirement and have peace of mind and have your money last as long as you do. Thank you for watching this video and we’ll talk soon!
TropikThunder
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by TropikThunder »

H.Hornblower wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:28 pm When we sell all of the investments inside the container, the price we receive in the mutual fund world is known as T plus three, which stands for trade day plus three business days. As the three business days pass, we can see that the values will change, they will move up and down, and in the case of yesterday, they will move dramatically down.
Huh? Is he saying if they put in a sale order on Monday, they don't know the price until it settles on Thursday? That's not how it works, is it?!

Besides, the SEC changed it to T+2 FIVE YEARS AGO.
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2017-68-0
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Today the S & P closed at 4511.63, above the 200 day moving average at 4473.04. If the S & P moves up less than another 100 points (at this point 4607.23) Moraif will hit his buy trigger. Come on S & P!
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif is starting to soften his rhetoric about the big bad bear and has mentioned that they are approaching their buy trigger. Here is the client video titled "the Upside and the Downside" (He is putting out two market alert videos, one for clients and one for public consumption):
https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... -downside/

From the transcript:
So, which of these will occur? We believe that the downside is more likely than the upside. In any case, we don’t know. We don’t have a crystal ball, so we can’t predict the future. So, aren’t you glad we have our Invest and Protect Strategy™ in place right now to help protect against that? If this turns out to be a really big bad bear, we’re protected right now because we’re not invested in any of our equities, and we shouldn’t suffer any pain in that regard.
So, for me, and I hope for you, knowing that we’re safe and sound right now gives me peace of mind. Now, if we had our buy signal, we would buy in because we don’t want to fight the Fed, and we also don’t want to fight the stock market, and we want to stick to our discipline. That could be the case if it continues to rise. But, right now, as I record this, we have not reached our buy signal; we have come this close numerous times over the last 20 years. So, this is not something to be overly concerned about at this point, but we’ll keep you posted.
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Today the S & P closed at 4,631.60. According to my calculations Moraif’s buy trigger was 4615.05. So tomorrow he will begin his buy back into equities. I wonder if he is going to do a phased buy in like last time in 2020.
Moraif sold the equities on 2/24/2022 when the S & P closed at 4,384.65, up for the day. That means there will be approximately a 250 point spread from where he sold to where he buys back now. Another thrilling adventure in market timing.
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Electron
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Electron »

H.Hornblower wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 3:29 pmMoraif sold the equities on 2/24/2022 when the S & P closed at 4,384.65, up for the day. That means there will be approximately a 250 point spread from where he sold to where he buys back now. Another thrilling adventure in market timing.
With volatility increasing in the stock market, that experience could be repeated. I didn't realize that they sell at 5% below the moving average and then buy back at 3% above the moving average. Those thresholds would typically increase the spread.

Market timers often show the results of their systems in a backtest. You wonder if this particular system worked well in any past periods.
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif is trying to put lipstick on his pig again. Client video:

https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... now-about/

He is trying to explain why they are buying in higher than where they sold. From the transcript:

So, let me address a question that we’ve been getting from clients and that you may be thinking, which is that when we sold, we bought back, and we’re buying back higher than where we sold. Unfortunately, I had a client say, “wouldn’t you like to buy lower than where we sold?” Of course, absolutely. Is there any doubt that is what I would prefer to do? So, he asked, “Well, do you worry about that? Is it effective? Shouldn’t you? What’s the point of being concerned? That doesn’t seem like a good thing, does it?” And I said, well, at the risk of sounding like I don’t care, because I care very much, but I don’t care about that. Whether we buy higher or lower than where we sold, ideally, we’d buy lower, obviously.

However, whether we buy higher or lower is not what this is about, and what we always have to remember is what game we are playing, because the game that I am playing for you is that we want your money to last as long as you do. That’s the game we’re playing, so mitigating risk and getting you out of harm’s way are primary decision-making points when we see harm coming. The first thing we do is say, “Okay, our strategy suggests that a big bad bear market is on the way. It is our responsibility to get you out of harm’s way,” and we will do so every time. So that’s the first decision because if we don’t do that, and it does turn out to be 2008, or Y2K, then the damage could be significant. One of the things that our strategy helps us to do is to mitigate that downside, just to describe how damaging 2008 basically wiped out 12 years’ worth of the S&P 500 index as gains.
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empb
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by empb »

Painful. The strategy seems to be: "we hope you start with so much money that we can subject you the whipsaw and you still don't run out!".
Bobradio
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Bobradio »

Question. Do clients of Moraif’s market guessing strategy have to pay taxes when he sells. He sold our friends 3 million dollar account during pandemic and also had to buy back at a higher price because of the quick comeback. Now he’s doing it again and I assume there were decent gains that have to be reported to the IRS. Btw, wouldn’t you love to know if his funds came anywhere close to last year’s 27% gain?
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Bobradio wrote: Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:05 am Question. Do clients of Moraif’s market guessing strategy have to pay taxes when he sells.
If the money is in a qualified account, no. If in a regular account any capital gains will have to be reported for this years taxes.
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Electron
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Electron »

Assets Under Management are reported to be about $4.5 billion. The annual fee appears to be 1.25%. I wonder what percentage of clients understand what they are getting for the cost and also understand the alternatives.

It's too bad we don't have data on the historical returns over the last twenty years or so. A conservative balanced fund with 40% equity exposure such as Vanguard Wellesley Income could easily have outperformed their strategy.
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Well, this is a new one. Moraif has sold out his clients in the Bond fund TCOFX. As long as he has them in the money market fund they will be losing money for Moraif will still be taking his 1.25%

Client video:https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... -tomorrow/

From the transcript:

So summarize, we’re going to sell our bond fund tomorrow, which is Tuesday, the 12th of April, we are going to stay out of bonds. For the time being we’re going to put that money in the money market fund. And we’ll transfer that over when we transition over to Pershing. At that time, we’ll decide what to do with it. Until then, we will not buy anything with that cash, that cash should see its interest rate rise, depending on the lag between how fast it changes and what the Fed does. If you have any questions, please contact your retirement planner. We’ll answer your questions.
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Electron
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Electron »

Moraif has sold out his clients in the Bond fund TCOFX. As long as he has them in the money market fund they will be losing money for Moraif will still be taking his 1.25%.
Tactical Offensive Core Fixed Income Fund (TCOFX) has a one star rating from Morningstar.

The charts show a large drop in the spring of 2020 at the start of the pandemic.

The fund apparently locked in their losses and did not recover along with most other funds. The fund's total return in 2020 was -3.99% versus +7.58% for the bond index. The tactical investment strategy of this fund does not appear to be working very well. :happy
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

More information on why the move to BNY Mellon|Pershing:
These are the reasons given on a client fact sheet –

1. Lower costs. We will be using ETFs instead of our current mutual fund solution. Our new investment solution, utilizing ETFs, is designed to provide us with significant cost savings at the investment level!
2. Reduce taxes. ETFs can provide a substantial reduction in capital gains because you only pay taxes on your individual activity, rather than collective capital gains like you have in a mutual fund environment.
3. Enhanced website and account access platform. We are very impressed with BNY Mellon | Pershing’s client website and account access platform, and feel it is superior to SEI’s client account access platform in a number of ways.
4. Ease of use. You’ll be able to deposit checks remotely!
5. Hold all your investments in one place. If you have investments elsewhere, you will be able to hold them with us in separate linked accounts with no additional advisory fee.
6. More efficient market exits/re-entries when executing our Invest & Protect Strategy™. With BNY Mellon | Pershing’s management of our ETFs, we expect vastly more efficient market exits/re-entries to execute our Invest and Protect Strategy™, because the ETF liquidation process is more streamlined than the proprietary mutual fund liquidation process.
7. Real-time ETF pricing vs. mutual fund end of day valuation. You will see the values of your investments in real-time instead of waiting for the end of the day.
8. Portability. You do not have to sell assets if you wish to transfer or gift.
9. More detailed reporting. Pershing is one of the largest institutional custodians in the world and, in our view, will provide access to technology that will enhance your account reporting experience.
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif’s latest client video indicates that they are getting close to their sell signal again.

https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... that-mean/

From the transcript:

To recap, the spike in interest rates that we’ve just seen today seems to tell us that our decision to sell our bonds was a good one. The stock market is close to our sell signal but not there yet. We don’t want to jump the gun because news coming out of the earning season could be good. Inflation could have reached peak inflation. So we could have some good news that could send the market the other way. If we do reach our sell signal we will take action to protect against any further downside. Okay, so let us worry about this so that you don’t have to we cannot tell you how appreciative we are of your loyalty and your trust in us every day!
TropikThunder
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by TropikThunder »

H.Hornblower wrote: Tue Apr 12, 2022 6:25 pm that cash should see its interest rate rise, depending on the lag between how fast it changes and what the Fed does
Does he mean the yield on the Money Market should rise?
H.Hornblower wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 4:33 pm To recap, the spike in interest rates that we’ve just seen today seems to tell us that our decision to sell our bonds was a good one.
Would have been an even better decision 6 months ago when everyone and their dog was predicting rates would rise to deal with inflation.
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif will be selling Monday! The S & P closed at 4271.78 today 4/22/22. His trigger number according to my calculations was 4271.95. So just 3 weeks after buying back in he is again selling his clients out at another loss. Moraif has put out a client video where he is again detailing their strategy:

https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... ll-signal/

From the transcript:

Hello, and welcome to our market alert video for today, Friday, April 22, 2022. After a really bad day today, it looks like we have reached our sell signal. We will be selling on Monday. Just wanted to give you the heads up about that. So, we want to talk in this video about what’s going on. While this is happening. I also want to talk with you about the interest rates, the Federal Reserve, and our decision to sell our bonds. I also want to answer the question that I’ve gotten from some of you, which is, why do we wait for our sell signal? If all the news is so bad, it’s telling us that we should sell anyway. So why do we wait if we already know we’re going to get there? Why would we delay the inevitable? …

Now, the question that I’m getting from some of you is, you know, if all the news is bad and if everything looks so terrible, and it’s so inevitable, we’re going to hit our sell signal, then why don’t we just sell now? Why don’t we wait? Well, I want to share my screen with you. And I want to show you why that is usually not a good idea to do that. I want to start off here and kind of review with you our strategy. What you can see here is the black squiggly line is the market the S&P 500 index, the red line is the 200 day moving average of the stock market. And as you guys know, this is the 2000’s. I’ll show you the next decade here in a moment. As you know, our strategy says that when the S&P, gets below 5% below the 200-day moving average, that’s where we sell and then it turns white as you can see. Then when we get 3% above the 200-day moving average, that’s when our strategy says it’s time to buy....


Another thrilling adventure in market timing!
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Annuity slayer has moved to Rumble. Here is his latest on Moraif:

https://rumble.com/v11cttx-ken-moraif-m ... a-row.html
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Random Musings
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Random Musings »

Not sure why he comments about policy when the equity positions are just based on +3%/-5%. For the bond sales, otoh, seems to be no "technical" rationale.

Regardless, rules and randomness = 1.25%. Betcha he sleeps like a baby.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Moraif's latest client video where he admits his strategy is not perfect:

https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... nce-ww-ii/

From the transcript:

An interesting thing to kind of put things in perspective for us is that according to Barron’s, this is the worst four months start for the S&P 500 index and the Dow since World War Two, so you have to go back almost 80 years to have a start as bad as this one. The S&P is down over 13% now for the year. So as bad as it has been for us, and certainly I’m not in any way, making excuses and not saying that what we’ve experienced is terrible, because it breaks my heart, trust me. It’s not just us, the markets gone crazy. You know, we hit our sell signal, and then we hit our buy signal and then we hit our sell signal again. It’s not something that we would want to have happen. Our strategy is not perfect. If we have big bad down going forward, which is possible given high inflation, giving the Federal Reserve now potentially having to increase interest rates faster than they had first thought, and the war in Ukraine. I mean, the list seems endless. It’s very possible that we could have a big bad bear market from here. If that’s the case, the good news for us is that we sold on Monday. So as of the close of Monday, we are completely out. Everything that has happened on Tuesday and Wednesday, on Thursday, and today, we did not participate in because we’ve been out through all of that. If it continues to get worse, we’ll be out for that, too. I’m thankful about that. At least we’re out.
TravelforFun
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by TravelforFun »

Moraif may be right this time.

TravelforFun
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Electron
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Electron »

It would be interesting to know how many clients have moved on after the latest series of trades.

Timing systems of this type are typically a curve fit to past market cycles. That can be a problem if volatility has increased.

In reality, market advances and declines are different in every cycle. That is also the case for the economy and the news background that drives markets.
Electron
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H.Hornblower
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by H.Hornblower »

Electron wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 6:14 pm It would be interesting to know how many clients have moved on after the latest series of trades.

Timing systems of this type are typically a curve fit to past market cycles. That can be a problem if volatility has increased.

In reality, market advances and declines are different in every cycle. That is also the case for the economy and the news background that drives markets.
He has lost some. He has put out a special video to FORMER clients asking them to come back.
https://retirementplannersofamerica.com ... dow-25000/

From the transcript:
Hello, this is a very special video that we’ve made just for you, our former clients. It’s because we continue to love you, you’re still beloved and most valued, even though you’re no longer with us. We want to invite you back, we want you to come back, because these are very, very risky times. We think that there’s a high probability that the Dow could go down to 25,000 from here, which is another 25% drop from where we are, which is more than what it’s already done. So, whatever you’ve experienced, we think you could experience it again, but we don’t want you to, and we want you back. So, this is an unabashed plea for that.
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Electron
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Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Electron »

Ken Moraif and his clients must be feeling at least somewhat better after the recent declines in the stock and bond markets.

Whipsaws are a major problem when trying to time the markets. The performance of their timing system would look a lot better if the whipsaws could have been avoided.

Midterm election years typically have a market bottom around the time of the November election. It will be interesting to see if the pattern repeats this year.
Electron
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