U.S. stocks in free fall

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WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by WhiteMaxima »

Excellent opportunity to do Roth conversion and Dollar cost averaging. Mega backdoor Roth conversion.
AquaBliss
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AquaBliss »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 11:34 pm Excellent opportunity to do Roth conversion and Dollar cost averaging. Mega backdoor Roth conversion.
Considering, but I feel like I’ll have a better opportunity in 3-4 months. If S&P hits 40% off ATH I’ll def pull the trigger. If not I guess I’ll wait till the next bust.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Markets are always flat on the weekends. Never understood why.
"You can cut all the flowers, but you can't stop the spring from coming." Pablo Neruda
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canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by canadianbacon »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 1:57 pm Markets are always flat on the weekends. Never understood why.
The Illuminati spends that time at the beach.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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OohLaLa
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by OohLaLa »

canadianbacon wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 2:55 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 1:57 pm Markets are always flat on the weekends. Never understood why.
The Illuminati spends that time at the beach.
With all that sunlight, you can really see why they are called the "Enlightened". har har har *slapping knee*
newyorker
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

Another drop tmr?
MindBogler
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MindBogler »

newyorker wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 3:14 pm Another drop tmr?
Futures will give some clue, but they do not always accurately predict the day's outcome.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

MindBogler wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 3:20 pm
newyorker wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 3:14 pm Another drop tmr?
Futures will give some clue, but they do not always accurately predict the day's outcome.
Seems lately futures have been pretty unreliable.
"You can cut all the flowers, but you can't stop the spring from coming." Pablo Neruda
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney »

Stocks will typically follow what futures are doing, but it's not unusual for markets to open down and end up or vice versa. In recent sessions there have been some quite sporadic direction changes throughout the day... so what the Sunday market futures start at (should be opening shortly... 6pm eastern) might be very different than what Monday's close is.

That said, rumblings on other parts of the Internet seem to be expecting red...

Image
:D
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elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

JoMoney wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 4:43 pm Stocks will typically follow what futures are doing, but it's not unusual for markets to open down and end up or vice versa. In recent sessions there have been some quite sporadic direction changes throughout the day... so what the Sunday market futures start at (should be opening shortly... 6pm eastern) might be very different than what Monday's close is.

That said, rumblings on other parts of the Internet seem to be expecting red...

Image
:D
Portfolio gone 🙃 futures seem to taken a dip blip.
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney »

elderwise wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 9:26 pm... futures seem to taken a dip blip.
Yup, and yet they opened pretty solidly in the green. Things change quick these days.
Even if Monday does end overall green, I'm still expecting we'll see a lower low this week. This is based on my trend following, and the trend I've discovered is when I buy, it's at a recent high point and then things go lower :annoyed
viewtopic.php?p=6676475#p6676475
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Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Keenobserver »

We are heading for a another dip today and also this week it seems.
nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

newyorker wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 4:04 pm Now its getting pretty scary. Hopefully war ends.
Not for a while. Ukraine can’t afford to give up and Russia won’t.
nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

Robot Monster wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 3:24 pm
MindBogler wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 3:20 pm
newyorker wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 3:14 pm Another drop tmr?
Futures will give some clue, but they do not always accurately predict the day's outcome.
Seems lately futures have been pretty unreliable.
When have futures been reliable?
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

nigel_ht wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 7:30 am
Robot Monster wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 3:24 pm
MindBogler wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 3:20 pm
newyorker wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 3:14 pm Another drop tmr?
Futures will give some clue, but they do not always accurately predict the day's outcome.
Seems lately futures have been pretty unreliable.
When have futures been reliable?
My impression is they've been more unreliable lately, but haven't exactly done a study on this.
"You can cut all the flowers, but you can't stop the spring from coming." Pablo Neruda
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morsk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

Unless futures are up/down 2%+ before 8:30AM EST (when econ data typically gets dropped), there's no reason to ever pay any attention to futures.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Well, Friday was fun while it lasted. Back to your regularly scheduled sell off.
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 8:49 am Well, Friday was fun while it lasted. Back to your regularly scheduled sell off.
We sold off before we even ripped

RiP.
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xraygoggles
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by xraygoggles »

atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 8:49 am Well, Friday was fun while it lasted. Back to your regularly scheduled sell off.
Friday was shorts covering - all the crappiest stocks, memes, Ark, Tesla partly squoze.

Now back to DownOnly(TM).
Simplicity is the key to brilliance - Vti & chill.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Here we go again...
VT and chill...
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

xraygoggles wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:54 am
atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 8:49 am Well, Friday was fun while it lasted. Back to your regularly scheduled sell off.
Friday was shorts covering - all the crappiest stocks, memes, Ark, Tesla partly squoze.

Now back to DownOnly(TM).
Yep. We've had a few of those massive up days during this market selloff. It always comes back down
bagastuff
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bagastuff »

The last two big up days I remember (3 Thursdays ago and 2 Wednesdays ago), the market instantly tanked the next trading day. Today, the markets are only down a smidge (by this year's standards), so the rate of retracement is at least diminishing.
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

bagastuff wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:34 am The last two big up days I remember (3 Thursdays ago and 2 Wednesdays ago), the market instantly tanked the next trading day. Today, the markets are only down a smidge (by this year's standards), so the rate of retracement is at least diminishing.
We still have few hours to decide whether we RIP or R.I.P :mrgreen:
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Keenobserver »

elderwise wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:36 am
bagastuff wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:34 am The last two big up days I remember (3 Thursdays ago and 2 Wednesdays ago), the market instantly tanked the next trading day. Today, the markets are only down a smidge (by this year's standards), so the rate of retracement is at least diminishing.
We still have few hours to decide whether we RIP or R.I.P :mrgreen:
The day is still young.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

bagastuff wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:34 am The last two big up days I remember (3 Thursdays ago and 2 Wednesdays ago), the market instantly tanked the next trading day. Today, the markets are only down a smidge (by this year's standards), so the rate of retracement is at least diminishing.
That's one way to look at it - but we can easily fall 2% in the last 30 minutes of trading. We'll see
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ray.james
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ray.james »

NewbieBogle007 wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 6:14 pm Wall Street Journal suggests stocks no longer reign:
https://stocks.apple.com/Ae19joQCDTzG6xSENg-0S7w
If this becomes the new sentiment, we will some very nice P/E' like 1970s of <12. The start of the next cycle of growth will be spectacular for middle aged accumulators and into their retirement. I hope this news will spread! I am 40% rental real estate, 40% stocks. So news either way is ok with me.

Now my crystal ball theories: I do think we will see some govt. debt based crisis/dollar crisis before this cycle of bad news end in addition to inflation. I was expecting that to unfold around ~2028 when social security/medicare force government to choose their poison pill - dollar devaluation (or) taxation. Time will tell.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

Need this sweet fake pump to continue two three days so I can offload at profit rinse repeat.

I do hope we don't dump soon :sharebeer
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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts »

elderwise wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:36 am We still have few hours to decide whether we RIP or R.I.P :mrgreen:
Looking like RIP.
A fool and your money are soon partners
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Here comes the end of the day dump :)
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

firebirdparts wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 1:41 pm
elderwise wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:36 am We still have few hours to decide whether we RIP or R.I.P :mrgreen:
Looking like RIP.
R.i.P now e.h.?
NewbieBogle007
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by NewbieBogle007 »

Anybody buying today? And where is AnnetteL?
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:35 pm Anybody buying today? And where is AnnetteL?
She has her very own thread across town in Personal Investments. It's very nice, with cozy chairs, and chamomile tea.

I bought a lot of Vanguard S&P 500 today, selling out most of my Consumer Staples and Utilities tilts into it. (And I tax loss harvested from TSM into it, too.)
"You can cut all the flowers, but you can't stop the spring from coming." Pablo Neruda
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:35 pm Anybody buying today? And where is AnnetteL?
Only with each paycheck. I think the market is close to finding a bottom, but I don't know if we are there yet. Need to actually see two days of green.
Tom_T
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tom_T »

atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:41 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:35 pm Anybody buying today? And where is AnnetteL?
Only with each paycheck. I think the market is close to finding a bottom, but I don't know if we are there yet. Need to actually see two days of green.
I don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
homebuyer6426
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by homebuyer6426 »

My gut tells me that we are 5-10% above the bottom. Could just be the garlic fries though.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Personally, I don't care where the bottom is. I care about what the market will be worth in 10 or 20 years. Or 20 or 30.
"You can cut all the flowers, but you can't stop the spring from coming." Pablo Neruda
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Tom_T wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:45 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:41 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:35 pm Anybody buying today? And where is AnnetteL?
Only with each paycheck. I think the market is close to finding a bottom, but I don't know if we are there yet. Need to actually see two days of green.
I don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
No one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.
case_of_ennui
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by case_of_ennui »

I'm thinking I'll be making a purchase on Thursday.
sailaway
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sailaway »

atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:51 pm
Tom_T wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:45 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:41 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:35 pm Anybody buying today? And where is AnnetteL?
Only with each paycheck. I think the market is close to finding a bottom, but I don't know if we are there yet. Need to actually see two days of green.
I don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
No one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.
More like two weeks ago (May 2-4), according to the charts for SP 500, VTI and NASDAQ. I figured that was enough spot checking that if you were using another measure you could show your work.
nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:51 pm
Tom_T wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:45 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:41 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:35 pm Anybody buying today? And where is AnnetteL?
Only with each paycheck. I think the market is close to finding a bottom, but I don't know if we are there yet. Need to actually see two days of green.
I don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
No one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.
"No one knows anything" but Warren Buffett is buying.

"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) turned into an active buyer of stocks during the volatile first quarter, especially in the quarter's final six weeks, after a long stretch of muted purchases.

Investors already know that Buffett's Berkshire doubled down on Chevron (CVX) in Q1 and has been snapping up Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with oil prices near highs. The conglomerate also added to top holding Apple (AAPL) during the stock's Q1 sell-off, and bought more shares of Activision Blizzard (ATVI)."

https://www.investors.com/news/warren-b ... ay-q1-13f/

The dude dropped $41B in net stock buys against $7B in net sales.

There will be some oversold bargains out there with good fundamentals if you are willing to buy into individual companies. I can see why he gambled on more ATVI given the $95 offer...we'll know soonish if it closes. AAPL seems less of a gamble.
superjames1992
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by superjames1992 »

nigel_ht wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 3:17 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:51 pm
Tom_T wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:45 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:41 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:35 pm Anybody buying today? And where is AnnetteL?
Only with each paycheck. I think the market is close to finding a bottom, but I don't know if we are there yet. Need to actually see two days of green.
I don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
No one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.
"No one knows anything" but Warren Buffett is buying.

"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) turned into an active buyer of stocks during the volatile first quarter, especially in the quarter's final six weeks, after a long stretch of muted purchases.

Investors already know that Buffett's Berkshire doubled down on Chevron (CVX) in Q1 and has been snapping up Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with oil prices near highs. The conglomerate also added to top holding Apple (AAPL) during the stock's Q1 sell-off, and bought more shares of Activision Blizzard (ATVI)."

https://www.investors.com/news/warren-b ... ay-q1-13f/

The dude dropped $41B in net stock buys against $7B in net sales.

There will be some oversold bargains out there with good fundamentals if you are willing to buy into individual companies. I can see why he gambled on more ATVI given the $95 offer...we'll know soonish if it closes. AAPL seems less of a gamble.
Buffett also famously doesn’t try to time the market, so I wouldn’t take his stock buying as any kind of indicator that the bottom is in. It might be, but there’s no way to know.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Buffett's moves show you even he has no idea how to time the market well. He sold airlines during the Covid crash and then didn't do much buying when the S&P fell to 2300. Now he is buying stock at 3900-4000.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

superjames1992 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 3:35 pm Buffett also famously doesn’t try to time the market
:confused I assume you mean that Buffett doesn't try to time the market by selling out of assets because he absolutely tries to time the market by accumulating cash and waiting for an opportunity. Berkshire Hathaway sat on a ton of Treasury bills the last few years because the market didn't present attractive options (aside from stock buy-backs):
Buffett's 2021 Shareholder Letter wrote: Berkshire’s current 80%-or-so position in businesses is a consequence of my failure to find entire companies or small portions thereof (that is, marketable stocks) which meet our criteria for longterm holding.
That's from the "U.S. Treasury Bills" section, where WB explains why Berkshire has $144 billion of cash and equivalents.
NewbieBogle007
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by NewbieBogle007 »

atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 3:37 pm Buffett's moves show you even he has no idea how to time the market well. He sold airlines during the Covid crash and then didn't do much buying when the S&P fell to 2300. Now he is buying stock at 3900-4000.
Curious — is there an easy way to track Buffet’s moves? Might try to mimmick him for the heck of it.
Chillpingu
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Chillpingu »

You can track the activity of funds on sites such as Whalewisdom but it will lag their purchase dates quite a bit. They file 13-F a month or so after the quarter closes for example 13Fs for last quarter is just coming out. You can also have alerts for any 13D/G filings which is when a fund makes a large purchase (I think greater than 5% stake in company).This normally needs to be filed within 10 days.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Whenever the market starts tanking, I always binge Star Trek and hope for a world, where I don't have to deal with money other than with Ferengi.

Of course, I like the first rule of acquisition given the market:

"Once you have their money... you never give it back."

and

"Never spend more for an acquisition than you have to."

https://memory-beta.fandom.com/wiki/Fer ... cquisition
Californiastate
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Californiastate »

NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 5:17 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 3:37 pm Buffett's moves show you even he has no idea how to time the market well. He sold airlines during the Covid crash and then didn't do much buying when the S&P fell to 2300. Now he is buying stock at 3900-4000.
Curious — is there an easy way to track Buffet’s moves? Might try to mimmick him for the heck of it.
Buy BRK.A
strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

nigel_ht wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 3:17 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:51 pm
Tom_T wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:45 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:41 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:35 pm Anybody buying today? And where is AnnetteL?
Only with each paycheck. I think the market is close to finding a bottom, but I don't know if we are there yet. Need to actually see two days of green.
I don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
No one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.
"No one knows anything" but Warren Buffett is buying.

"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) turned into an active buyer of stocks during the volatile first quarter, especially in the quarter's final six weeks, after a long stretch of muted purchases.

Investors already know that Buffett's Berkshire doubled down on Chevron (CVX) in Q1 and has been snapping up Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with oil prices near highs. The conglomerate also added to top holding Apple (AAPL) during the stock's Q1 sell-off, and bought more shares of Activision Blizzard (ATVI)."

https://www.investors.com/news/warren-b ... ay-q1-13f/

The dude dropped $41B in net stock buys against $7B in net sales.

There will be some oversold bargains out there with good fundamentals if you are willing to buy into individual companies. I can see why he gambled on more ATVI given the $95 offer...we'll know soonish if it closes. AAPL seems less of a gamble.
Well Elon Musk says we'll probably be in a recession lasting up to 18 months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

One of these two men will be wrong.
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney »

strummer6969 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 8:38 pm...
Well Elon Musk says we'll probably be in a recession lasting up to 18 months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

One of these two men will be wrong.
Warren Buffett buying stocks doesn't mean he's predicting there will or won't be a recession.

I don't even know if Elon Musk saying there will be a recession means he believes that, Elon says lots of stuff.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

JoMoney wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 8:49 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 8:38 pm...
Well Elon Musk says we'll probably be in a recession lasting up to 18 months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

One of these two men will be wrong.
Warren Buffett buying stocks doesn't mean he's predicting there will or won't be a recession.

I don't even know if Elon Musk saying there will be a recession means he believes that, Elon says lots of stuff.
I don't even think it's Buffett buying anymore.
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