Lastly - your cash... Way too much! It's like 42% of your portfolio - losing to inflation every month!
asadr wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 5:06 pm
[your] 800k - Cash (recent windfall and asset allocation readjustment at end of 2021 - spread across various accounts earning ~0.6%)
[wife] 520K - Cash (Ally Bank @ 0.6%)
That said - I don't know if you have identified your
target asset allocation! I thought you had - but upon re-reading it - I think it simply lists your "current" allocation:
asadr wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 5:06 pm
Total Assets (was much higher start of the year

): ~ 3.2M @ ~ 58/4/38 (stocks/bonds/cash)
The responses may differ depending on
your target AA...
I'm definitely making an assumption here - but below is written assuming you want to stay to a roughly 60/40 AA - as you have now - with mainly shifting from cash to bonds...
After AA - you need to figure out "short-term" needs vs. "long-term" investments... As you are seeing with bonds right now - even those so-called "safe" investments can lose money over the near-term.
In particular, you mentioned:
asadr wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 10:39 pm
Was holding ~300k for house down payment but pushed the plan out by about a year or two.
How much of that $300k (or maybe more/less now) do you
really need and in
how many years?
For example, with your income vs. expenses - in theory you could invest 100% of it - and within 1 year - you could replace the entire amount when you are ready to buy your home... But you also run the risk of one of you needing to stay home with child, thus reducing income (and maybe increasing expenses) - and taking years to re-save the $300k...
For the money you need to access in the "short-term",
personally I'd stick with options that
protect your principle - such as savings, CD's, Treasury Bills, Savings Bonds (although limited by the $10k/person/year limit), etc.
One notable option - if you can get a referral and/or they open back up to new deposits - would be HMBradely.com - where you can get 3% on up-to $100k per account (in theory you could have 3 accounts - 2 individual and 1 joint - giving you $300k @ 3%). There are some hopes to jump through - namely $1500/month direct deposit (per account) + "save" (don't remove) at least 20% of deposits each quarter + minimum (IIRC $100) monthly spend on credit card. But 3% is
way better - especially on up to $100k per account - than I've found elsewhere...
While these may lose to inflation - ideally over the "short-term" - the impact isn't too large... But we live in "interesting" times - with inflation going crazy... I'd have to think about the trade-offs - but TIPS might be an option - especially if you can purchase the # of years needed (so you can avoid the "noise" of value changes in the interim years).
Let's assume you want to set aside the original $300k for "short-term" needs - and for simplicity - we'll "remove" it from the portfolio. That leaves you with roughly $2.9M - and an [assumed] target AA of roughly 60/40. Meaning you need around $1.16M of "fixed income" (between bonds and cash) for "long-term" needs.
For your "long-term" needs - there the options are both "easier" and "harder"... On the "easy" side - we invest because we believe in 20+ years - the markets will have risen, and stated differently, if we don't invest - our money will be eroded over-time due to inflation.
On the "hard" side - in our current markets where stocks
and bonds seem to fall nearly every month - it's hard to get out of our own minds... We get caught in "if I just wait - I'll get more shares at a lower price"... The problem is - no one is good at timing the market... And historically "lump sum" investing beats DCA - as the markets are generally more likely to rise than not...
Currently, your AA appears to be roughly 54/46 (I'm ignoring the 529) - and per my assumption above - I'm assuming your target is 60/40...
That said, if I were in your situation - what I'd likely be doing:
- Set aside $300k - as noted above - for "short-term" needs (or whatever amount you think is appropriate... Below is based on $300k...)
- [as mentioned in a previous post] Sell potentially $100k of "gains" in MSFT (or up to your expected 15% LTCG limit) - reinvest in something like VTI & set aside $15k of your "cash" (15%) to pay quarter taxes (lowers current "fixed income" by $15k)
- [as mentioned in a previous post] Invest your $24k from your HSA into the S&P 500 offered in your HSA (lowers current "fixed income" by $24k)
- [as mentioned in a previous post] Invest $6k each from your "cash" into his/her "Backdoor Roths" - 100% into a total stock market fund (lowers current "fixed income" by $12k)
- I'd exchange roughly $315K of your/spouses 401k + deferred comp to Bonds (getting your 401k to roughly 40/60 AA - you could do more/less as you feel appropriate). But this gets the bulk of your bonds into your tax-deferred space... And this is clearly a "long-term" investment... Note - since your 401k is likely co-mingled with Roth + pre-tax, I'd call out the following... Roth should remain 100% stocks - no bonds. Personally, I'd want at least 25% or so of pre-tax to remain in stocks - allowing for growth and tax-free "rebalancing" between stocks/bonds. That may adjust this $ up or down... Which impacts the rest below...
- Use $315k of your "cash" to buy stocks in taxable - ideally VTI. This essentially is just "moving fixed income" into your tax-deferred accounts - where it's more tax-efficient, while also buying stocks "cheap" in taxable (or creating more TLH opportunities if they keep falling).
- Use another $300k of your "cash" to buy stocks (VTI) in taxable - which if I did the math right - should get you to roughly 60/40 AA
- In 401k - set your contribution % - along with future taxable investments (like I Bonds) - to maintain AA going forward)
Doing so leaves you roughly $390k in cash (+ $300k for short-term/house).
Keep however much you need to "sleep well at night" (SWAN) in cash (for us - it's about $100k - or about 1 year expenses) - with the bulk ideally in a high-yield account.
Assuming you plan to continue to buy I Bonds - you could consider "front-loading" 1+ years of I Bonds at the current high rates by purchasing $10k "gifts" for each other - to be delivered in future years. If EE Bonds (see previously linked "EE Bond Manifesto" make sense for you - that could be another $10k/each (and/or front-load those as well). You can buy as much as you want this way - but you'll "lock up" those funds for > 1 year - as you can only "buy" or "receive" a $10k bond each year (so $100k of I Bonds - done as 5 x $10k gifts for
each spouse - would take 5 years to "deliver"/"receive").
The rest - should get invested bonds/treasuries/etc. Personally, I'd probably just "lump sum" into something like VTEB or FBMIX (muni bond funds) - and then TLH if the losses continue to accrue. But maybe a DCA of 1/6 a month would be emotionally easier - such that you get the money invested by end-of-year - and maybe get a few extra shares along the way...