S&P is up 37% vs. 2 years ago!

[tennisplyr]

So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?

[Nathan Drake]

So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?

That statistic can lead one to be more inclined to believe that we could be far away from the bottom.

But yes, ignore the noise generally applies regardless as long as you know the risks to your current portfolio construction.

[Booper]

So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?

To be honest, it did not occur to me to look at the S&P 500.

But I am paying close attention to VBTLX and inflation.

I remember reading that periods of inflation have caused more problems for investors than stock market losses.

What is going on with VBTLX is historic and worth taking seriously.

[Artsdoctor]

Absolutely ignoring the YTD noise. The last few years have had stellar returns for equities and corrections are inevitable (as are bear markets).

[Normchad]

So what lessons have you learned from this crash?

[AerialWombat]

I just cut my 2022 tax bill by $2,550 by tax loss harvesting. Definitely not ignoring that!

[000]

So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago.

Is that a challenge for Mr. Market?

[Random Walker]

So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?

Not me. I look at all time frames until I find one that suites my current confirmation bias.

Dave

[Dry-Drink]

So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago.

Ah I remember that time in 2020. Buying the S&P500 at sub 3000. Those were some of the best investments I ever made (and probably ever will).

[mangorunner]

I just cut my 2022 tax bill by $2,550 by tax loss harvesting. Definitely not ignoring that!

Amen to that!

[chris319]

SPX on May 12, 2017: 2,390.90

SPX on May 12, 2022: 3,930.08

CAGR = 28.2%

[Leesbro63]

Where are we compared to, say, January 30, 2021, just before the Covid thread started becoming serious? Cherry picking near the bottom of the Covid drop is a good fact to remember but so it the slightly longer term context.

[delamer]

I record any time our retirement accounts reach a new high. (Based on weekly updates of Quicken.)

That’s my measuring stick.

We are down about 14% from that high.

[rob]

As someone famous once paraphrased... It's all relative

[adestefan]

Where are we compared to, say, January 30, 2021, just before the Covid thread started becoming serious? Cherry picking near the bottom of the Covid drop is a good fact to remember but so it the slightly longer term context.

3386.15 was the pre-COVID high in February 2020.

[Leesbro63]

Where are we compared to, say, January 30, 2021, just before the Covid thread started becoming serious? Cherry picking near the bottom of the Covid drop is a good fact to remember but so it the slightly longer term context.

3386.15 was the pre-COVID high in February 2020.

So as of today (Friday May 13, 2022) we’re up about 18%. Probably a few percent above the inflation since then.

[KlangFool]

So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?

Did you rebalance? If you are not 100% US stock, the 5/25 band based rebalancing would had triggered and captured the gain.

KlangFool

[grok87]

I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?

[delamer]

I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?

Total return or change in share price only?

Don’t conclude anything based on 30 months of returns.

[Robot Monster]

I care about decades, bro. Two year performance? Bah!

[Normchad]

I care about decades, bro. Two year performance? Bah!

Exactly. My investing experience is already in its 4th decade. I’m likely to make it to six decades of investing.

[02nz]

So, the S&P is up roughly 37% versus 2 years ago. Since measuring market performance is only as good as the two points in time you look at, do any of you ignore the YTD noise?

It's up more than that, you appear to have excluded dividends.

[abc132]

I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?

Yes, one captured something more than choosing the worst of the three.

Think of diversification as not trying to pick the winner and those performance numbers will make complete sense.

[grok87]

I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?

Total return or change in share price only?

Don’t conclude anything based on 30 months of returns.

agree. it's an interesting period though. An unanticipated shock (pandemic), followed by a V shaped market recovery, followed by unexpected inflation shock. all in 2 years and change.

[grok87]

I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?

Yes, one captured something more than choosing the worst of the three.

Think of diversification as not trying to pick the winner and those performance numbers will make complete sense.

agree

[Leesbro63]

I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?

Total return or change in share price only?

Don’t conclude anything based on 30 months of returns.

agree. it's an interesting period though. An unanticipated shock (pandemic), followed by a V shaped market recovery, followed by unexpected inflation shock. all in 2 years and change.

Again it proves Bogle’s observation: “Nobody knows nuthin’”.

[Normchad]

I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?

Total return or change in share price only?

Don’t conclude anything based on 30 months of returns.

agree. it's an interesting period though. An unanticipated shock (pandemic), followed by a V shaped market recovery, followed by unexpected inflation shock. all in 2 years and change.

Again it proves Bogle’s observation: “Nobody knows nuthin’”.

That’s really the thing, isn’t it? If you really believe it, it makes it all so much easier. If you really believe it, you don’t buy crypto or ARKK because those things are touted by “experts” who “know the future”.

I’m so glad I read Random Walk back in the 90s, and really came to understand this…..

[Triple digit golfer]

Yes, I ignore the noise.

[Leesbro63]

I was just thinking about this but for the period jan 1 2020 to present
S&p up 28%
Bonds negative
InternationAl +4%

So….diversification works?

Total return or change in share price only?

Don’t conclude anything based on 30 months of returns.

agree. it's an interesting period though. An unanticipated shock (pandemic), followed by a V shaped market recovery, followed by unexpected inflation shock. all in 2 years and change.

Again it proves Bogle’s observation: “Nobody knows nuthin’”.

That’s really the thing, isn’t it? If you really believe it, it makes it all so much easier. If you really believe it, you don’t buy crypto or ARKK because those things are touted by “experts” who “know the future”.

I’m so glad I read Random Walk back in the 90s, and really came to understand this…..

My portfolio was about 53% equity at the end of 2021. Mostly Vanguard Total Market, with some Vanguard REIT and a small amount of international. Short term muni bond funds and cash making up the remaining 47%. I'm now down exactly 10%. It's painful, but I keep reminding myself that in this market this is a total win.

[lostdog]

Yeah, glad I ignored the meme stocks, tech bros, Cathy Wood's arkk hype and crypto bros with the laser eyes.

Ignore the noise pulled through again. VT and chill...