finite_difference wrote: ↑Sun May 08, 2022 10:22 pm
Carguy85 wrote: ↑Sun May 08, 2022 12:23 pm
8foot7 wrote: ↑Sun May 08, 2022 11:05 am
The industry is not built or set up for capacity/supply controls or limits. It’s built on the average American getting bored on a Saturday and getting a new car that afternoon while getting the negative equity from his last three bored Saturday purchases rolled into it.
So true. Last I checked wages have nowhere near kept up with inflation. Consequences of printing money like it’s going out of style are unfortunately going to hit the average American very hard sooner than later. The last thing that person should probably be holding is a bag of debt on a rapidly depreciating asset they just paid far too much for. Not saying this is the OP...just in general.
I agree that spending your stimulus money on more vehicle than you need is not a good idea. But not sure anyone really did that. From what I read, people were using it to fix their cars, pay back bills/CC debt, and build up their emergency funds.
I am thinking the US stimulus was $1200 per individual, twice? I know there was a whole thing about whether the second payment was as large as the first... gets into politics so not worth going there.
I don't see how that could be "spent" on a new car except at the margin, when a new car costs $25k+?
Employment is high and people had savings because money they might have spent on travel, entertainment etc was not spent due to lockdowns. That's probably the main source of excess spending power on cars.
I also think that when self-driving cars become a thing, which is a when and not an if, it will lead to some ownership changes. If I could affordably summon a nice car when I need it.. I would probably downsize by a car or two. Maybe won’t impact anything in 5 years, but 10 years.. I can see structural changes happening. Working from home and automated deliveries will support those changes too.
"Usership not ownership" models. Yes. I happen to think that true self-driving is still a long way away, despite impressive advances. The problem that it is trying to solve is truly *hard*. My colleague though rents her car out during the week - for several hundred (British) pounds a month - via a phone app. I don't know how the insurance works on that. That's a good example of 1 car serving the needs of 2 or more households. Given a car is say $40k of metal & plastic which is used for 2 hours a day for most households, that seems a natural development now that the technology makes it possible.
Although Working From Home is definitely a thing - 20 years of social evolution compressed into a 2 year emergency - that seems to have hit public transport in cities where people commute that way (primarily the NE in USA?). However traffic (in London, for example) is back to more or less where it was before the first lockdown.
Perhaps WFH has simply enabled people to live further away, fewer days commuting but greater distances when they do commute.